The stakes in this vote are higher than ever before as ties grow increasingly strained between the self-ruled island and mainland China.

隨著自治的這座島嶼與中國大陸之間的關係日益緊張，這次投票的利害關係比以往任何時候都要大。

Whoever is elected Taiwan's president will also signal where US-China relations are headed.

無論誰當選臺灣總統，都將預示著中美關係的走向。

[Speaking in Chinese] Currently, Taiwan is facing the critical choice between the two paths and prospects of peace and war, prosperity and decline.

當前，台灣正面臨著和平與戰爭、繁榮與衰退兩條道路、兩種前景的關鍵抉擇。

But how have relations soured to this extent?

但是，兩國關係怎麼會惡化到這種程度呢？

In 1992, a political consensus was reached by Beijing and Taiwan, which at the time was ruled by the Kuomintang.

1992 年，北京與當時由國民黨統治的臺灣達成了政治共識。

Under what is now known as the '92 consensus, both parties have agreed there is only one China, but they could disagree over what that means.

根據現在所謂的九二共識，雙方都同意只有一個中國，但他們可能對這意味著什麼有分歧。

It was assumed the mainland would define it as the People's Republic of China and Taiwan would define it as the Republic of China.

人們假設中國大陸將其定義為中華人民共和國，台灣將其定義為中華民國。

To Beijing, the '92 Consensus has been the basis of cross-strait ties.

對北京來說，九二共識一直是兩岸關係的基礎。

But Taiwan's economy suffered from a global economic downturn during the KMT's eight years in power and many voters felt the close ties with Beijing benefited businesses more than ordinary people.

但台灣經濟在國民黨執政八年期間遭受了全球經濟衰退的影響，許多選民認為與北京的密切關係對企業的好處多於一般民眾。

Here's how one expert explained it at the time.

一位專家是這樣解釋的。

The current government [KMT] has maintained a rapprochement policy with China.

現任政府[國民黨]一直維持與中國的和解政策。

But many voters in Taiwan consider that rapprochement has not been able to bring prosperity to Taiwan's economy, and more dignity and participation in international community.

但許多台灣選民認為，和解並​​未能為台灣帶來經濟繁榮、更多尊嚴和更多參與國際社會的機會。

That year, the independence leading Democratic Progressive Party swept into power with current President Tsai Ing-wen in the top job.

那一年，領導獨立的民進黨上台，現任總統蔡英文擔任黨魁。

[Speaking in Chinese] We need every single vote for change.

[中文] 改變台灣，一票都不能少。

Tomorrow, we will return the power to the people. Tomorrow, we will win Taiwan back.

明天，人民把權力拿回來。明天，我們把台灣贏回來，好不好？

Tomorrow, we will use our ballots to bring the presidential office back to the people of Taiwan.

明天，我們一起用選票，讓這個總統府真正屬於台灣人民，好不好？

Tsai's election as the island's top leader brought cross-strait to a impasse.

蔡英文當選台灣最高領導人使兩岸陷入僵局。

She refused to accept the '92 Consensus while Beijing regarded her as a "separatist."

她拒絕接受九二共識，而北京則視她為台獨份子。

Tensions only intensified when Tsai won a second term in office with a record 8 million votes in 2020.

當蔡英文在 2020 年以創紀錄的 800 萬張選票贏得第二個任期時，緊張局勢進一步加劇。

Her campaign focused on safeguarding the island's democracy and raising fears that Taiwan would be controlled by Beijing.

她的競選重點是維護台灣的民主，並引發人們對台灣將被北京控制的擔憂。

She used Hong Kong's 2019 anti-government protests to reject any notion of a "one-country, two-systems" policy for reunification.

她利用香港 2019 年的反政府抗議活動來拒絕任何「一國兩制」統一政策的觀念。

[Speaking in Chinese] I want to ask you all here, does anyone want war? Nobody wants war. Do we want peace? Everyone wants peace.

[中文] 我要問現場我們所有的好朋友，有人要戰爭嗎？ 沒有人要戰爭。 我們是不是要和平？ 大家都要和平。

Look at Hong Kong and think of Taiwan. We don't want Hong Kong-style peace.

看看香港，想想台灣。我們不要像香港式的和平。

We want dignified peace. Everyone, am I right?

我們要的是有尊嚴的和平，大家說對不對？

Tsai has reached her two-term limit, so she cannot run in this coming election.

蔡英文已達到兩屆任期限制，因此她無法參加這次選舉。

Experts say cross-strait relations remain a major concern to Taiwanese voters.

專家稱兩岸關係仍是臺灣選民最關心的問題。

[Speaking in Chinese] The main candidates with different views on the future of cross-strait relations matter to the presidential election.

主要候選人，他們對於未來的兩岸關係抱持著不同的一些觀點，

Some of them are in favor of maintaining a more friendly attitude with the Chinese mainland,

有些主張要跟中國大陸方面保持比較友好的態度，

and some of them are in favor of maintaining Taiwan's sovereignty and not accepting the 1992 Consensus with the Chinese mainland.

有一些是主張維持台灣的主權，跟中國大陸，不能接受包含九二共識在內的一些看法。

So as to which candidate is elected, whether it is possible for cross-strait relations to cause further tension or easing... those are everyone's concern.

所以對於哪個候選人當選之後，是不是對於兩岸關係造成近一步的緊張關係，或者是和緩等等都是大家所關切的。

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.

北京將台灣視為中國的一部分，必要時可以透過武力統一。

Most countries including the US do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force, and is committed to arming Taiwan.

包括美國在內的大多數國家都不承認台灣是獨立國家，但華盛頓反對任何武力奪取台灣自治島嶼的企圖，並致力於武裝台灣。

In October poll by the Taiwanese government's Mainland Affairs Council showed only about 7% of Taiwan's people supported reunification.

台灣政府陸委會10月的民調顯示，只有約7%的台灣民眾支持統一。

In comparison, 25% were in favor of independence.

相比之下，25%的人支持獨立。

But support for either Taiwanese unification or independence had both dropped compared with the same period ahead of the previous election.

但與上次選舉前同期相比，對台灣統一或獨立的支持率均有所下降。

It showed the vast majority of Taiwanese people wanted neither option.

這顯示絕大多數台灣人不想要這兩種選擇。

They simply wanted to maintain Taiwan's status the way it is. Not formally independent and not unified with mainland China.

他們只是想維持台灣的現狀。 不正式獨立，也不與中國大陸統一。

The frontrunner in this election is DPP candidate and current vice-president William Lai Ching-te.

這次選舉的領導者是民進黨候選人、現任副總統賴清德。

But he only has about 30% support among voters, mainly the party's long-time supporters, according to opinion polls.

但根據民調，他在選民中的支持率僅30%左右，主要是該黨的長期支持者。

Like Tsai, his campaign has focused on raising fears of a takeover by Beijing.

與蔡英文一樣，他的競選活動重點是引發人們對北京接管的擔憂。

[Speaking in Chinese] China's desire to "swallow up" Taiwan was the country's national policy as they strive for world hegemony,

中國要併吞台灣是他們的國家政策，爭取世界霸權，

it's not because of which political party or related to any candidate and their policies.

不是哪一個政黨，或哪一個人有什麼主張所引起。

But it's not clear if using the same strategy this time will help Lai win.

但目前尚不清楚這次使用同樣的策略是否會幫助賴清德獲勝。

He has faced difficulties winning over middle of the road voters partly because of fears The DPP's path of confrontation with Beijing could lead Taiwan towards war with mainland China.

他在贏得中間派選民的支持方面遇到了困難，部分原因是擔心民進黨與北京的對抗之路可能會導致台灣走向與中國大陸的戰爭。

Beijing has repeatedly criticized Lai as pro-independence, along with his vice-presidential running mate, Xiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's former de facto ambassador to the United States.

北京方面多次批評賴智及其副總統競選搭檔、台灣前駐美大使蕭美琴支持獨立。

[Speaking in Chinese] Such a dangerous "separatist duo" from the Democratic Progressive Party will only poison the interests and well-being of the people on the island,

民進黨推出這樣一組危險的「獨獨配」只為危害台灣同胞的利益福祉，

poison cross-strait peace and stability, and poison the future and destiny of Taiwan.

毒害台海和平穩定，毒害台灣前途命運。

Their biggest opponent is the KMT's Hou Yu-ih, who seeks to reduce tensions and restore dialogue with Beijing while also protecting Taiwan's self-rule and democracy.

他們最大的對手是國民黨侯友宜，他尋求緩和緊張局勢並恢復與北京的對話，同時保護台灣的自治和民主。

The KMT has been trying to narrow the gap between Hou and the DPP's Lai, even calling on KMT supporters living on the mainland to return to the island for the vote, which must be cast in person.

國民黨一直試圖縮小侯友宜與民進黨賴清德的差距，甚至呼籲居住在中國大陸的國民黨支持者回島投票，投票必須親自投票。

This year, a candidate from a relatively new party, the Taiwan People's Party has also emerged as a contender.

今年，來自相對較新的政黨台灣民眾黨的候選人也成為了競爭者。

Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei, is mostly favored by young Taiwanese who do not like either the DPP or KMT, but he is trailing behind his two opponents.

前台北市長柯文哲最受既不喜歡民進黨也不喜歡國民黨的台灣年輕人青睞，但他落後兩位對手。

Ko has shown a more diplomatic inclination in approaching Taiwan's relationships with both mainland China and the US.

柯在處理台灣與中國大陸和美國的關係時表現出更外交的傾向。

[Speaking in Chinese] I hope Taiwan can be a bridge between China and the United States, not a pawn in the confrontation between China and the United States.

我希望台灣是中美溝通的橋樑，而不是中美對抗的棋子。

The Taiwan issue has long been a major flashpoint of Beijing's relations with Washington.

台灣問題長期以來一直是北京與華盛頓關係的一個主要熱點。

The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with defense of military equipment.

根據法律規定，美國有義務向臺灣提供防衛軍事裝備。

But more than just a military obligation, Taiwan in recent years has also been seen by the US as an important partner to counter mainland China's growing assertiveness and influence in the region.

但台灣不僅僅是一項軍事義務，近年來被美國視為對抗中國大陸在該地區日益增強的自信和影響力的重要夥伴。

"As a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse, Taiwan is a key US partner in the Indo-Pacifi. Though the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, we have a robust unofficial relationship."

「作為一個領先的民主國家和技術強國，台灣是美國在印太地區的重要合作夥伴。儘管美國與台灣沒有外交關係，但我們有著牢固的非官方關係。」

The US and China have long fought for technological dominance and clashed over their global trade involving reciprocal tariffs.

美國和中國長期以來一直爭奪技術主導地位，並在涉及互惠關稅的全球貿易問題上發生衝突。

Both Washington and Beijing need a reliable supply of semiconductors and industry-led globally by Taiwan.

華盛頓和北京都需要可靠的半導體供應，需要由台灣主導的全球產業。

Semiconductors are used in most smartphones, computers, cars, F-35 fighter jets, and even NASA's Perseverance Rover that landed on Mars.

大多數智慧型手機、電腦、汽車、F-35 戰鬥機，甚至美國太空總署登陸火星的毅力號火星車都使用了半導體。

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company recorded a market share of more than 50% in the whole global semiconductor foundry market in 2023.

台積電2023年在全球半導體代工市場佔有率超過50%。

If China gains more influence over Taiwan, the US claims that it would pose a threat to global supply chains and jeopardize American and global technology security.

美國聲稱，如果中國對台灣獲得更大影響力，這將對全球供應鏈構成威脅，並危及美國和全球技術安全。

Former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even stopped by TSMC during her controversial 2022 visit to Taiwan.

美國前眾議院議長南西·裴洛西甚至在頗受爭議的 2022 年訪問台灣期間順便拜訪了台積電。

That visit, the first by such a high-ranking US politician in many years, angered Beijing, which saw it as a challenge to Chinese sovereignty.

這次訪問是美國高級政客多年來的首次訪問，激怒了北京，北京認為這是對中國主權的挑戰。

Shortly after, Chinese military aircraft started crossing the Taiwan Strait's median line, an unofficial barrier between the mainland and Taiwan.

不久之後，中國軍機開始穿越台灣海峽中線，這是中國大陸和台灣之間的非官方屏障。

[Speaking in Chinese] Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait over "Taiwan independence" or the intervention of external forces,

一旦台海因爲「台獨」或外部勢力介入而爆發戰爭，

Taiwan will become a battlefield, and the Taiwanese people will be caught in crossfire and turned into cannon fodder.

台灣變成戰場，那台灣老百姓就會國協變成炮灰。

So of course the world is concerned, especially now that there are wars going on globally.

當然就是世界關注，尤其現在世界上再發生戰爭嘛，

So a threat from China, it's not just a threat to Taiwan, it's probably a threat to democratic camps around the world.

所以中國的一個威脅，他不是只有對台灣，他是對世界上的民主陣營都是一個威脅。

Ahead of the vote, President Tsai has reversed her party's previous frequent warnings about the prospect of war and sought to play down such fears.

在投票前，蔡英文總統推翻了她的政黨先前對戰爭前景的頻繁警告，並試圖淡化這種擔憂。

Opinion polls show the DPP is struggling to increase support from voters and it could be a neck-and-neck race.

民調顯示，民進黨正努力增加選民的支持，這可能是一場勢均力敵的競爭。

Many voters are now worried there could be a war if tensions escalate out of control.

許多選民現在擔心，如果緊張局勢升級失控，可能會爆發戰爭。

I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges.

我認為中國領導層在這個時刻被其內部挑戰壓垮了。

And my thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them to consider a major invasion of Taiwan.

我的想法是，也許現在不是他們考慮大規模入侵台灣的時候。

Regardless of who succeeds Tsai as Taiwan's next leader, after the January 13th poll, ties between the island, mainland China and the United States will have important consequences for the region and the world.

無論誰接替蔡英文成為台灣下一任領導人，1 月 13 日投票後，台灣、中國大陸和美國之間的關係都將對區域和世界產生重要影響。