Name: 你可能活不過 2024 年...十大科技趨勢 (You probably won’t survive 2024... Top 10 Tech Trends)
Uploaded: 2023-12-12T03:40:13.000Z
Duration: 8 min 56 s

You survived yet another year in the simulation.

If you still have a job in tech, it means you survived massive layoffs, didn't get drafted into a war and outsmarted the artificial intelligence that your boss wants to replace you with 2023 was the craziest year ever.

如果你還在科技行業工作，這意味著你熬過了大規模裁員，沒有被徵召入伍，還戰勝了老闆想用人工智能取代你的人工智能 2023 年是有史以來最瘋狂的一年。

But at the rate, things are accelerating.

但從速度上看，事情正在加速發展。

It'll look like nothing compared to 2024.

與 2024 年相比，它看起來什麼都不是。

I care deeply about the future because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there, but the future ain't what it used to be in today's video.

我非常關心未來，因為我將在那裡度過我的餘生，但在今天的視頻中，未來已今非昔比。

We'll look at 10 trends in 10 technology that you can take advantage of in 2024.

我們將為您介紹 2024 年可以利用的 10 大技術趨勢。

Let's get started by looking at the health of the job market.

我們先來看看就業市場的健康狀況。

At the beginning of 2023 we had massive layoffs from magnificent seven companies like Amazon, Google and Microsoft, not only did this flood the job market with more talent but simultaneously, the number of open jobs declined by about 60% based on data from true up dot IO.

2023 年初，亞馬遜、谷歌和微軟等七大公司進行了大規模裁員，這不僅讓就業市場湧入了更多的人才，同時，根據 true up dot IO 的數據，空缺職位數量減少了約 60%。

And that's been a 12 punch to the nuts for junior developers looking to get into the industry in 2021.

對於希望在 2021 年進入該行業的初級開發人員來說，這無疑是一記重拳。

We had people working multiple full time jobs simultaneously.

我們有人同時從事多份全職工作。

Thanks to remote work and you could land these jobs by simply taking a 102nd boot camp.

多虧了遠程工作，您只需參加第 102 期訓練營，就能找到這些工作。

But today things look, a lot different managers are still desperately trying to get people back into the office.

但今天看來，很多不同的管理者仍在拼命讓人們回到辦公室。

And you can find all kinds of anecdotes on Reddit about how brutal the job market is right now.

你可以在 Reddit 上找到各種關於現在就業市場有多殘酷的趣聞軼事。

It's been a rough year, but there is some hope.

今年是艱難的一年，但還是有一些希望的。

If we look closely at the chart, you'll notice that job openings are up 13.8% from earlier this year.

如果我們仔細觀察圖表，就會發現職位空缺比今年年初增加了 13.8%。

And all the big fang companies have unfrozen their hiring freezes although there aren't nearly as many open jobs as there used to be.

所有大公司都已解凍了招聘凍結令，儘管空缺職位還不如以前多。

So I'd be cautiously optimistic about an improving job market going into 2024.

是以，我對 2024 年就業市場的改善持謹慎樂觀態度。

But a lot of that depends on the state of the world.

但這在很大程度上取決於世界的現狀。

We're still in a high interest rate environment which is not ideal for cash burning start ups that need that easy money to hire a bunch of people to grow quickly.

我們仍處於高利率環境中，這對那些需要大筆資金來僱傭大批員工以迅速發展的燒錢新創企業來說並不理想。

Just yesterday, Spotify did its third layoff of the year where it severed about 1500 heads which it blamed on the higher cost of capital.

就在昨天，Spotify 進行了今年的第三次裁員，裁掉了約 1500 名員工，並將此歸咎於較高的資本成本。

These high rates have also put the real estate market at a standstill dramatically reducing the total number of transactions because nobody wants to pay $900 dollars for a cardboard box with an 8% mortgage.

這些高利率也使房地產市場停滯不前，大大減少了交易總量，因為沒有人願意花 900 美元買一個抵押率為 8%的紙板箱。

The automotive industry is also struggling and we saw Tesla prices come way down in 2023 which was a shock to some people who thought their Tesla wasn't appreciating asset just a year ago.

汽車行業也在苦苦掙扎，我們看到特斯拉的價格在 2023 年大幅下降，這讓一些一年前還認為自己的特斯拉資產不會升值的人大吃一驚。

The economy and especially technology is addicted to low rates, but we've also got some wars going on.

經濟，尤其是技術對低利率上了癮，但我們也面臨著一些戰爭。

I stand with Lockheed Martin and Boeing and the military industrial complex.

我與洛克希德-馬丁公司、波音公司和軍工企業站在一起。

These companies make the tools we need to blow each other up.

這些公司生產我們需要的工具，用來炸燬對方。

And when you stand with that team, you really can't lose.

與這樣的團隊站在一起，你真的不會輸。

What you have to realize is that you're living paycheck to paycheck, your employer is living, bail out to bail out and the United States government is living from war to war.

你必須意識到的是，你靠薪水過活，你的僱主靠救助過活，美國政府靠戰爭過活。

If we don't get a big war soon, the entire system could collapse and that's not going to bode well for tech jobs in the future.

如果我們不盡快打一場大仗，整個系統就會崩潰，這對未來的科技工作來說可不是什麼好兆頭。

But speaking of money, crypto is back, Bitcoin was 16 K at the beginning of the year and just broke 40 k a couple days ago.

不過，說到錢，加密貨幣又回來了，比特幣年初的價格是 16 K，幾天前剛剛突破 40 K。

And crypto, bros are already predicting that one token will be worth over a million dollars.

而加密貨幣的兄弟們已經預測，一枚代幣的價值將超過一百萬美元。

By the end of 2024 the price to watch for is 69 K.

到 2024 年底，價格將達到 69 K。

If it reaches this price point, the world will be flooded with memes that will elevate FOMO to biblical levels.

如果達到這個價位，世界上就會充斥著各種備忘錄，將 "FOMO "提升到聖經級別。

In other words, the Crypto winter might be over bringing us a fresh new round of Ponzi schemes to invest our parents' money in another failed technology that could come back in 2024 is augmented and virtual reality.

換句話說，加密貨幣的冬天可能已經過去，它將給我們帶來新一輪的龐氏騙局，讓我們把父母的錢投資到另一項可能在 2024 年捲土重來的失敗技術上，那就是增強現實和虛擬現實。

Thanks primarily to the Apple Vision Pro which is set to release in early 2024.

這主要歸功於將於 2024 年初發布的 Apple Vision Pro。

Apple has done some revolutionary things in the past like a mouse that charges from the bottom.

蘋果公司過去曾做過一些革命性的事情，比如從底部充電的滑鼠。

And if these VR goggles take off, it could lead to a whole new round of opportunity for app developers.

如果這些 VR 眼鏡開始流行，就會給應用程序開發者帶來全新的機遇。

However, I think that's unlikely of apple cult members will drink this kool aid, but I don't think the general public is going to fork over $3500 to become even more disconnected from reality.

不過，我認為蘋果邪教成員不太可能喝下這口冷飲，但我不認為普通大眾會掏出 3500 美元來讓自己變得與現實更加脫節。

Ultimately, though I think this will end up being a niche product, very cool to some people but not appealing to the average N PC.

不過，我認為這最終會成為一款小眾產品，對某些人來說非常酷，但對普通 N PC 卻沒有吸引力。

Now, speaking of hardware, Microsoft just announced a few weeks ago that it's going to start producing its own chips like the Maya chip for artificial intelligence and the Cobalt CPU, which is an arm based processor designed for general purpose use in the cloud.

說到硬件，微軟幾周前剛剛宣佈，它將開始生產自己的芯片，如用於人工智能的 Maya 芯片和 Cobalt CPU，後者是一種基於手臂的處理器，專為雲計算中的通用用途而設計。

And Aws is also building its own arm based chips which are cheaper and more efficient than traditional X 86 chips.

此外，Aws 還在製造自己的基於 arm 的芯片，這種芯片比傳統的 X 86 芯片更便宜、更高效。

Now, as of today, virtually all pcs and laptops running windows run CP us based on the X 86 architecture, but that may not be the case in the future because thanks to project Volterra, it's now possible to run windows on armed chips.

現在，幾乎所有運行 Windows 系統的 PC 和筆記本電腦都是基於 X 86 架構的 CP，但未來情況可能不會如此，因為 Volterra 項目的實施，讓在武裝芯片上運行 Windows 系統成為可能。

Hell even Intel is going to start manufacturing armed chips.

該死的，連英特爾都要開始製造武裝芯片了。

The single most important thing anyone does with AC pu though is play video games.

不過，大家用 AC pu 做的最重要的一件事就是玩電子遊戲。

And just yesterday, we got our first look at the GT A six trailer.

而就在昨天，我們首次看到了 GT A 6 的預告片。

This will likely be the most hyped up video game in the history of the world.

這很可能會成為世界歷史上最受矚目的電子遊戲。

And it's built using Rockstar's own proprietary Rage game engine and that means you can't use it.

而且它使用的是 Rockstar 專有的 Rage 遊戲引擎，這意味著你不能使用它。

However, unity made a massive blunder in 2023 by rolling out new pricing that would charge developers every time a game is downloaded.

然而，unity 在 2023 年犯了一個大錯，它推出了新的定價方式，每次下載遊戲都要向開發者收費。

Unity developers revolted and it got so bad that they had to roll back the pricing and apologize.

Unity 開發人員反感，情況變得非常糟糕，他們不得不收回定價並道歉。

Meanwhile, Unreal Engine released version 5.3 with some crazy new features like a procedural content generation framework and its substrate material system that gets almost indistinguishable from reality.

與此同時，虛幻引擎發佈了 5.3 版本，其中包含了一些瘋狂的新功能，如程序化內容生成框架及其幾乎與現實無異的底層材質系統。

Now on real engines, parent company Epic Games sued Apple a few years ago saying it's a monopoly because it takes a 30% cut on the app store and doesn't allow alternative payment methods, but it lost that suit and that was held up on appeal in 2023 Epic Games is not giving up though, with a similar ongoing lawsuit against Google, it seems like a long shot but if they somehow win, it would be huge for indie developers because they could avoid that 30% cut to the big guy by using their own payment processor.

現在，在真正的引擎方面，母公司 Epic Games 幾年前曾起訴蘋果，稱蘋果是壟斷企業，因為蘋果從應用商店中抽取 30% 的抽成，並且不允許使用其他支付方式，但最終敗訴，並且在 2023 年的上訴中被擱置。 Epic Games 並沒有放棄，目前正在對谷歌提起類似的訴訟，這似乎是一個漫長的過程，但如果他們以某種方式獲勝，這對獨立開發者來說將是巨大的，因為他們可以通過使用自己的支付處理器來避免向大公司抽取 30% 的抽成。

But now let's talk about web development.

但現在，讓我們來談談網絡開發。

But I think in 2024 people stop building new javascript frameworks because nowadays they all have a similar developer experience with signal based reactivity.

但我認為，到 2024 年，人們就不會再構建新的 javascript 框架了，因為如今他們都能通過基於信號的反應性獲得類似的開發體驗。

And the race will shift to who can build the best tools for existing frameworks.

競爭將轉向誰能為現有框架構建最佳工具。

We're seeing more visual editors and ides for frameworks like react where you can drag and drop components instead of coding them manually.

在 react 等框架中，我們看到了更多的可視化編輯器和 ID，您可以拖放組件，而無需手動編碼。

Then you have frameworks like NXT which have built in DEV tools to make life easier.

此外，像 NXT 這樣的框架還內置了 DEV 工具，讓生活變得更輕鬆。

But pretty soon we should have A I writing most of our code.

但很快，我們的大部分代碼就應該由 A I 來編寫了。

There are tools like visual copilot where you can take a design enigma and it will automatically write the framework code along with styles in the near future.

有一些像 visual copilot 這樣的工具，你可以利用它來設計一個謎題，在不久的將來它就會自動編寫框架代碼和樣式。

I think every javascript framework will have its own specialized tooling along with its own specially tuned A I for writing useful accurate code, whichever framework does this the best will win the web development war for the next 10 years.

我認為，每個 javascript 框架都將擁有自己的專用工具和經過專門調整的 A I，以編寫有用、準確的代碼，無論哪個框架在這方面做得最好，都將贏得未來 10 年的網絡開發大戰。

And I think there will be a lot of opportunity on the web in part because of trends in mobile development.

我認為網絡上將會有很多機會，部分原因是移動開發的趨勢。

This trend has been ongoing for many years, but people just don't want to download mobile apps anymore.

這種趨勢已經持續了很多年，但人們就是不想再下載移動應用程序了。

It's not like 10 years ago when you could develop an app in your mom's basement.

現在不像 10 年前，你可以在媽媽的地下室裡開發一個應用程序。

Have it go viral and become a millionaire overnight.

讓它成為病毒，一夜之間成為百萬富翁。

There are billions of people using smartphones every day.

每天有數十億人使用智能手機。

But getting their attention away from established apps is harder than ever.

但是，要讓他們把注意力從已有的應用程序上移開，卻比以往任何時候都難。

Like as you can see here, most of my screen time goes to Twitter and Discord when it comes to building mobile apps, not too much has changed.

就像你在這裡看到的那樣，我大部分的螢幕時間都花在了 Twitter 和 Discord 上。

But if you're building cross platform, we're starting to see more low code tools that can build for both IOS and Android with a drag and drop interface.

但如果您要構建跨平臺，我們開始看到越來越多的低代碼工具可以通過拖放界面同時為 IOS 和 Android 構建。

But now let's talk about low level systems languages.

但現在讓我們來談談低級系統語言。

Rust is still growing incredibly fast and you can now find Rust code in the Linux kernel.

Rust 的發展速度仍然快得令人難以置信，你現在可以在 Linux 內核中找到 Rust 代碼。

There was some drama with the Rust Foundation earlier this year and I might get sued for using this logo.

今年早些時候，拉斯特基金會發生了一些爭執，我可能會因為使用這個標識而被起訴。

But there are some other up and coming low level languages as well like Zig the language behind the javascript bun run time and also mojo a Python superset that can also handle low level memory management, making it both approachable and extremely performant an ideal option for A I and machine learning.

不過，還有其他一些新興的低級語言，如 Zig（javascript bun run time 背後的語言）和 mojo（Python 的超集，也能處理低級內存管理），使其既平易近人又性能卓越，是人工智能和機器學習的理想選擇。

And finally, that brings us to number 10, the elephant in the room, Artificial intelligence chat GP T has only been around for a year although it feels like a lot longer and most normies out there haven't even touched it yet, but that's going to change over the next few years because we now have barred built into Google to cannibalize its own search engine.

最後，讓我們來看看第 10 項，也就是房間裡的大象--人工智能哈拉 GP T，它的出現只有一年時間，雖然感覺時間更長，大多數普通人甚至還沒有接觸過它，但這將在未來幾年內發生改變，因為我們現在已經在谷歌中內置了禁止蠶食其自身搜索引擎的功能。

We have co pilot built into Microsoft office to write all your papers and do all your spreadsheets.

我們在 Microsoft Office 中內置了聯合試點功能，可為您撰寫所有論文和製作所有電子表格。

An estimated 75% of all stock trading now happens via algorithms and A I is being weaponized to both launch and defend against cyber attacks.

據估計，目前 75% 的股票交易都是通過算法進行的，而 A I 正在被武器化，用於發動和抵禦網絡攻擊。

And even our military industrial complex friends like Palantir are using A I to help blow people up in a more environmentally friendly and equitable way.

甚至我們的軍工企業朋友，如 Palantir，也在使用 A I 來幫助以更環保、更公平的方式炸燬人類。

But things got really crazy with generative image A I.

但生成影像 A I 的出現讓事情變得更加瘋狂。

10 years ago, Ian Goodfellow published a paper proposing the first generative adversarial network.

10 年前，伊恩-古德費洛發表了一篇論文，提出了第一個生成式對抗網絡。

Seven years later, open A I brought us to fusion models with dolly, but they still sucked pretty hard.

七年後，open A I 為我們帶來了帶鍛模的融合模型，但它們仍然非常糟糕。

But then just two years from that point, we get images good enough to make $10,000 a month on only fans in 2024 a big trend to watch is text to video, stable diffusion just released a text to video model.

但僅僅兩年後，我們就能獲得足夠好的影像，僅靠粉絲就能月入 1 萬美元。2024 年，一個值得關注的大趨勢是文字轉視頻，穩定的擴散剛剛發佈了文字轉視頻模型。

And at the current rate of progress, I predict that by the end of 2024 you'll be able to generate a full length Bollywood quality movie from your laptop.

按照目前的發展速度，我預測到 2024 年底，你就能用筆記本電腦製作出一部完整的寶萊塢品質電影。

But none of this will matter if somebody first achieves artificial general intelligence in A I that can actually think for itself and not just regurgitate and remix things humans have already done.

但是，如果有人首先在人工智能中實現了人工通用智能，能夠真正獨立思考，而不僅僅是重複和複製人類已經做過的事情，那麼這一切都將無關緊要。

Some people even think this has already been achieved by open A I with the leak of Qar.

有些人甚至認為，隨著 Qar 的洩漏，開放式 A I 已經實現了這一目標。

However, there's a French guy that thinks A G I is decades away and some think it will never be achieved.

不過，有一個法國人認為 A G I 還需要幾十年的時間，有些人則認為它永遠不會實現。

When that day comes, it could be a great day for humanity.

當那一天到來時，可能是人類的大日子。

And there will be nothing left to do but indulge in pleasure.

到那時，除了沉溺於享樂，我們將無計可施。

On the other hand, though you may live to see A I made horrors beyond your comprehension, it could end up being like when Faust made a deal with the devil for unlimited knowledge and pleasure.

另一方面，雖然你可能會活著看到 A I 製造出你無法理解的恐怖，但最終可能會像浮士德與魔鬼做交易一樣，獲得無限的知識和快樂。

But once that knowledge is achieved, there's a trade off in the form of moral and spiritual decline, the A I will have to adjust for this trade off by creating billions of lab grown babies, which are now a real thing, then put them into a simulation that has a disproportionate amount of suffering in order to offset the pleasures experienced by the A I.

但是，一旦獲得了這種知識，就會以道德和精神衰退的形式進行交換，"A I "將不得不通過製造數十億實驗室長大的嬰兒（現在這是真實存在的）來調整這種交換，然後把他們放入一個模擬環境中，讓他們承受不成比例的痛苦，以抵消 "A I "所體驗到的快樂。

In fact, you might be in the simulation right now.

事實上，你現在可能正在進行模擬。

Why else would you be watching a video gaslighting you into thinking you're in a simulation?

不然，你為什麼要看一段視頻，讓你誤以為自己身處模擬環境？

You'd have to be crazy to think we're not in a simulation right now.

如果你認為我們現在不是在模擬，那你一定是瘋了。

But again, congratulations for making it to round 2024.

不過，還是要再次祝賀你們成功晉級 2024 賽區。