Name: 8% 的安全提款率…安全嗎？（Is an 8% Safe Withdrawal Rate... Safe?）
Uploaded: 2023-11-24T04:36:30.000Z
Duration: 2 min 55 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

情態副詞

Dave Ramsey recently claimed that an 8% withdrawal rate

from an investment portfolio is safe for retirees

estimate the percentage of a portfolio that

and then adjusted for inflation thereafter

without a material risk of running out of money

is that good mutual funds return around 12% per year

this leaves 8% to be spent by the retiree

and retirement spending math does not work this way

good mutual funds are hard to find before the fact

a similar comment can be made about country returns

S&P 500 as being a little below 12% but again

the phenomenal historical performance of the S&P 500

to use return experiences of countries around the world

to gain an understanding of possible return scenarios

even if we could find a fund that does return 12%

would not sustain an 8% withdrawal rate for

the simple reason that stock returns are not constant

that 12% average return will consist of lots of

also goes through higher and lower periods

constantly spending an inflation adjusted 8% of

the initial portfolio during consecutive down years

or having to keep up with years of higher inflation

let's take a mutual fund that has returned about 12%

The American Funds Investment Company of America

11.73% annualized from 1934 through October 2023

despite its incredible long term track record

you can't buy past performance but anyway

using this fund's historical performance to test

real $80,000 in spending on a million dollar portfolio

yields a success rate of a little more than 50%

this means that in around 50% of simulated trials

which we know has a great historical track record