People have been getting married for thousands of years. It's an ancient institution.

幾千年來，人們一直在結婚。這是一個古老的傳統。

But for some people, it's perhaps a bit too ancient.

但對有些人來說，也許有點太古老了。

89% of the world's population now live in countries with falling marriage rates.

目前，世界 89% 的人口生活在結婚率下降的國家。

This is especially pronounced in the richest countries.

這種情況在最富裕的國家尤為明顯。

Among the 38 OECD nations, most recorded between seven and ten marriages per 1000 people in 1970.

1970 年，在 38 個國家中，大多數國家的結婚率在每千人 7 至 10 例之間。

By 1995 this fell to around five to seven marriages, and it continues to plummet today.

到 1995 年，這一數字下降到 5 至 7 例左右，如今仍在繼續下降。

So why is this happening, and will it spell the end of marriage as we know it?

那麼，為什麼會出現這種情況呢？

A stable marriage has often been associated with financial stability, married households in the US hold significantly higher wealth than cohabiting couples or singles.

穩定的婚姻通常與經濟穩定相關聯，在美國，已婚家庭擁有的財富明顯高於同居夫婦或單身人士。

But despite this, the marriage rate in the US has dropped by nearly 60% since the 1970s.

儘管如此，美國的結婚率自 1970 年代以來下降了近 60%。

And the median age for first time marriages has increased for both women and men.

由於各種原因，女性和男性首次結婚的中位年齡都有所提高。

For a variety of reasons, I think upper middle class Americans are just much more likely to be kind of intentional about sequencing their lives in terms of education.

我認為，中上層美國人更有可能在教育方面有意識地安排自己的人生順序。

First work. Second marriage, third and the baby carriage after all of that.

第一工作，第二結婚，第三才有生小孩跟後面的事情。

So they're just in a much better spot, both financially and relationship wise when they go ahead and have kids.

當他們有了孩子後，無論在經濟上還是在感情上，他們的處境都會好很多。

The cost of marriage usually starts with a wedding.

婚姻的成本通常始於婚禮。

This is a tiny wedding cake I bought in London for $50.

這是我在倫敦花 50 美元買的一個小婚禮蛋糕。

Thankfully, just within our production budget.

幸好，這還在我們的製作預算之內。

But if you wanted the same cake, but big enough to serve 100 people, then you would have to pay at least $250.

但如果你想要一個同樣的蛋糕，但蛋糕要足夠大，能供應給 100 人，那麼你至少需要支付 250 美元，

Add in the price of a venue, a tuxedo, a dress drinks and music, and suddenly, you're looking at a very large bill.

再加上場地、燕尾服、禮服飲料和音樂的費用，突然之間，費用變得很龐大。

Getting married is just the tip of the iceberg.

結婚只是冰山一角。

Starting a family adds all sorts of economic commitments.

組建家庭會增加各種經濟負擔。

It typically starts with a house, followed by a car, maybe kids, which means more expenses like books, toys and family vacations in a nutshell.

一般來說，首先是房子，然後是汽車，也許還有孩子，這就意味著更多的開支，比如書籍、玩具和家庭度假。

You become a fully engaged consumer in the economy.

你將成為經濟中的一個全面參與的消費者。

Some people choose not to go down this road while others simply can't afford to.

有些人選擇不走這條路，而有些人則根本負擔不起。

From about 1980 to the present, there's been no greater increase in family instability than there has been among this working-class demographic in the US.

從 1980 年至今，美國工人階級人口的家庭不穩定性一直在增加。

Basically in the second quintile of the family income distribution.

基本上是在家庭收入分配的第二分位數。

I think there are a couple of big factors here in play.

我認為這裡有幾個重要因素。

So one major factor of course, is sort of the changing economy and the way in which working class men are less likely to be stably employed.

一個主要因素當然是不斷變化的經濟，以及工人階級男性不太可能穩定就業的方式。

American adults from high income groups have maintained a stable marriage rate since the 1970s.

自 1970 年代以來，來自高收入群體的美國成年人一直保持著穩定的結婚率。

But among the middle and especially lower income groups, marriage has declined to 66% and 38% respectively by 2018.

但在中等收入群體，特別是低收入群體中，到 2018 年，結婚率分別下降到 66%和 38%。

Since the 1970s, there has been a decline in the number of American men without college degrees in the US labor force.

自 1970 年代以來，美國勞動力中沒有大學學歷的男性人數一直在下降。

The last 50 years also saw their earnings stagnate and decrease.

在過去的 50 年裡，他們的收入也停滯不前並有所下降。

By contrast, we're seeing women having a more secure footing in today's sort of more service, post industrial economy.

相比之下，我們看到女性在當今服務業和後工業經濟中的地位更加穩固。

And so we know that marriage is many things, but it's also in part of financial undertaking.

所以我們知道婚姻是多方面的，但它也是財務承諾的一部分。

And so when you have men who are losing ground financially in this working class demographic and women who are gaining ground,

所以當男性在工薪階層人口中的經濟地位下降，而女性的經濟地位上升時，

I think they both kind of see that the guy is less marriageable.

我認為她們都會認為男性不太適合結婚。

And so they're less likely to kind of get married in the first place and more likely to get divorced in the second place.

所以他們結婚的可能性較小，離婚的可能性較大。

Another phenomenon that affects marriage is the rise of secularism in modern societies.

影響婚姻的另一個現象是現代社會中世俗主義的崛起。

Here in the UK, for example, one in three people say they have no religion, up 25% since 2011.

例如，在英國，三分之一的人表示他們沒有宗教信仰，這個比例自 2011 年以來增加了25%。

And this is a key reason why marriage is no longer the only basis for family formation.

這是為什麼婚姻不再是家庭形成的唯一基礎的一個重要原因。

In 2021, 51% of births in the U.K. took place outside of a marriage.

在 2021 年，英國 51% 的小孩為非婚生子女。

42% of children in the European Union and 40% of children in the U.S. are also born to unmarried parents.

歐盟有 42% 的兒童和美國有 40% 的兒童也是出生在未婚父母之下。

For countries where this is acceptable socially, the decline in marriage does not necessarily spell trouble for the country's demographics.

結婚率下降並不一定意味著國家人口結構出現問題。

But in other parts of the world, most notably in East and South Asia, marriage and birth rates are highly correlated.

但在世界其他地區，尤其是東亞和南亞，結婚率和出生率高度相關。

Only 2.3% of babies are born outside of marriage in Japan, which means if people don't get married, they are also very unlikely to have Children.

在日本，只有 2.3% 的嬰兒是非婚生子女，這意味著如果人們不結婚，他們也很難有孩子。

This is a problem for Japan, the world's third largest economy and home to the world's oldest population.

這對日本這個世界第三大經濟體和世界最老齡人口的家園來說是個問題。

The fall in birth rate is something that happens in many countries.

出生率下降在許多國家都會發生。

Governments all over the world are worried because of economic implications.

世界各國政府都在擔心其經濟影響。

From state-funded matchmaking apps to marriage support concierges,

從國家資助的婚介應用程式到婚姻支持管家，

the Japanese government has introduced several incentives to promote marriage, but so far, nothing has worked.

日本政府出臺了多項激勵措施來促進婚姻，但至今仍未奏效。

There is this financial constraint that people feel that they may not be able to support a family and raise Children.

人們感到經濟拮据，可能無法養家餬口和撫養子女。

A similar problem is troubling authorities in neighboring China, which registered the fewest marriages in 2022.

類似的問題也困擾著鄰國中國的政府，中國是 2022 年登記結婚人數最少的國家。

Since public records began, the country also saw its birth rate fall to a record low the same year.

自有公開記錄以來，中國的出生率也在同一年降至歷史新低。

By 2050 China's working population will reduce by 10% and not enough, you know, babies born to fill that gap.

到 2050 年，中國的勞動人口將減少 10%，而出生的嬰兒卻不足以填補這一缺口。

And the you know, dependent population, those who reach retirement age will double.

達到退休年齡的受撫養人口將翻一番。

In a sharp reversal from its former one-child policy, the Chinese government encourages marriage and childbirth since 2016.

中國政府自2016年以來發生了明顯的逆轉，從原來的一孩政策轉向鼓勵結婚和生育。

But this time, it's Chinese women who have reservations about married life.

但這一次，是中國的女性對婚姻生活持保留態度。

And women tend to spend much, significantly, much more time than their husband in childcare and other related care.

女性往往在照顧子女和其他相關照顧方面花費比丈夫更多的時間，遠遠超過他們。

And also the Chinese workplace is not very women friendly.

還有，中國的工作場所對女性不太友好。

Why women don't want to get married?

為什麼女人不想結婚？

Why women don't want to have children is because this society is not women friendly.

為什麼女性不想要孩子，因為這個社會對女性不友好。

The society is not child friendly.

社會對兒童不友好。

Men talk about the personal freedom that they get for not getting married.

男性談論他們因為未婚而獲得的個人自由。

But at the same time, they are really worried that if they were to set up a family, they will not be able to sustain a family with the income.

但與此同時，他們又非常擔心，如果建立了家庭，他們的收入將無法維持一個家庭。

The Western heart is closing at an important extent to marriage and family life.

西方社會對婚姻和家庭生活的態度在很大程度上變得較為保守。

And that's going to have a huge impact, not just economically but also obviously socially and emotion on adults today.

這將對當今的成年人產生巨大的影響，不僅在經濟上，而且顯然在社會和情感方面也有影響。