(transition thudding)

（過渡咚咚聲）

Even if you know nothing about them, you might have heard.

即使你對他們一無所知，你也可能聽說過。

- Treasuries have proven always to be a reliable,

- 事實證明，國債始終是可靠的、

safe haven investment.

避風港投資。

- Recession fears have caused investors

- 對經濟衰退的擔憂導致投資者

to flee to safe investments like Treasury Bonds.

逃往國債等安全投資。

- U.S. Treasury Bonds are a pretty safe investment.

- 美國國債是一項相當安全的投資。

- Nothing can touch them

- 沒有什麼能觸動它們

- [Jordan] But there's a caveat.

- 但有個注意事項

Not all bonds are the same.

並非所有債券都一樣。

Some let you take a bit of a gamble by selling them.

有些人讓你通過出售它們來賭一把。

And if you do, like Silicon Valley Bank had to,

如果你這樣做了，就像硅谷銀行不得不這樣做一樣、

you introduce the one thing

你介紹了一件事

that everyone says bonds don't have, risk.

人人都說債券沒有的風險。

We break down how the fail safe investment can fail.

我們分析了失敗安全投資是如何失敗的。

And why despite that, bonds are still so safe.

為什麼儘管如此，債券仍然如此安全？

(gentle music)

（輕柔的音樂）

(upbeat music)

(歡快的音樂）

Bonds are IOUs.

債券是借據。

- The government gets a lot of money from taxes

- 政府從稅收中獲得大量資金

but it spends more money.

但花的錢更多。

So it has to borrow money.

是以，它必須借錢。

- [Jordan] And that's where bonds

- [約旦]這就是債券

aka Treasury securities come in.

又名國庫券。

You give the government money

你給政府錢

and it promises to give it back at a later date

並承諾日後歸還

with some interest.

我很感興趣。

And the government takes this promise very seriously.

政府非常重視這一承諾。

This makes bonds an ideal investment if safety,

這使得債券成為一種理想的安全投資、

rather than a large return, is an investor's top priority.

而不是高額回報，才是投資者的首要任務。

Bonds tend to be a popular investment tool for retirees,

債券往往是退休人員青睞的投資工具、

investors looking to add some cushion to their portfolio,

投資者希望為自己的投資組合增加一些緩衝、

or parents looking to start their kids' college fund.

或希望為孩子建立大學基金的父母。

And the bond market, as we know it today,

以及我們今天所知的債券市場、

can be traced all the way back to the First World War.

可以一直追溯到第一次世界大戰。

(tape whirring)

（錄音帶呼呼聲）

- [Narrator] From a pistol shot at Sarajevo,

- [旁白] 從薩拉熱窩的手槍射擊、

the first the great modern world wars explode.

第一次偉大的現代世界大戰爆發。

- [Jordan] In 1917,

- [約旦] 1917年

the U.S. government released Liberty Loans,

美國政府發佈了《自由貸款》、

a type of bond meant to garner public support

一種獲得公眾支持的債券

and funds for the war.

和戰爭資金。

People could cash them in typically 10 to 30 years later.

人們通常可以在 10 到 30 年後將其兌現。

Ultimately, Liberty Bonds raised more than $17 billion.

最終，自由債券籌集了超過 170 億美元的資金。

That's 2/3 of the funds America raised

佔美國募集資金的 2/3

for the First World War.

第一次世界大戰。

It marked the birth of the modern Treasury market

它標誌著現代國債市場的誕生

and introduced investing to many Americans.

並向許多美國人介紹了投資。

♪ We've got another bond to buy. ♪

我們有另一個債券購買。

- The government issued more war bonds during World War II.

- 二戰期間，政府發行了更多的戰爭債券。

After the war, they were converted to savings bonds.

戰後，這些債券被轉為儲蓄債券。

- [Narrator] It's your future.

- 這是你的未來

Build for it, save for it.

為此而建設，為此而儲蓄。

Buy shares in it.

購買它的股票。

- [Jordan] We still have savings bonds today.

- [喬丹]我們今天仍然有儲蓄債券

Like war bonds,

比如戰爭債券、

they can only be bought directly from the government,

它們只能直接從政府那裡購買、

and you can't sell them.

你也賣不出去。

Though, you can transfer them to people as gifts.

不過，你可以把它們作為禮物轉送給別人。

- (indistinct) gift, Merry Christmas.

- 禮物，聖誕快樂。

- Thank you.

- 謝謝。

- [Jordan] The only thing that could prevent you

- [喬丹]唯一能阻止你的是

from getting your money when your savings bonds mature

當你的儲蓄債券到期時，你無法拿到你的錢

is if the Treasury defaulted.

如果財政部違約。

Okay, it wouldn't look like that,

好吧，看起來不像、

but the government defaulting on its debts

但政府拖欠債務

would be catastrophic.

將是災難性的。

However, it's incredibly unlikely to happen.

不過，這種可能性微乎其微。

- The fact that everybody thinks

- 事實上，每個人都認為

that treasuries are safe helps make them safe.

認為國庫券是安全的，這有助於確保國庫券的安全。

Investors around the world just pile into treasuries.

全世界的投資者都扎堆購買國債。

That makes it very, very easy

這樣就非常非常容易

for the U.S. government to raise more money

讓美國政府籌集更多資金

in the bond market.

債券市場。

- [Jordan] This perpetuates a cycle.

- [約旦]這就形成了一個循環。

People buy bonds from the government.

人們向政府購買債券。

The government spends the money.

政府花錢。

It issues new bonds.

它發行新債券。

And then it uses some of the new bond money

然後使用部分新債券資金

to pay everyone back.

來償還每個人。

Plus.

另外

- The US government can always raise taxes

- 美國政府可以隨時提高稅收

or cut spending in order to pay back its bond holders.

或削減開支，以償還債券持有人。

- [Jordan] So the way to introduce risk to bonds

- [喬丹]是以，將風險引入債券的方法

really comes from, well, you.

其實是來自你自己。

Not all bonds function like savings bonds.

並非所有債券都能像儲蓄債券一樣發揮作用。

Take these securities, Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds

以國庫券、票據和債券這些證券為例

you can buy in the primary market,

你可以在一級市場購買、

meaning you get them new in a government auction.

也就是說，你可以在政府拍賣會上買到新的。

Or the secondary market,

或二級市場、

meaning you buy them from another seller.

也就是說，你是從另一個賣家那裡購買的。

And unlike savings bonds, you can sell these bonds

與儲蓄債券不同，您可以出售這些債券

to someone else in the secondary market before they mature.

在到期之前，在二級市場上轉讓給他人。

But if you do, you introduce risk.

但如果這樣做，就會帶來風險。

So why take a perfectly safe investment

那麼，為什麼要把一項完全安全的投資

and make it less safe?

並降低其安全性？

- The benefit of the secondary market

- 二級市場的好處

is that if you need the money, you can always sell the bond.

如果你需要錢，你可以隨時出售債券。

And you don't have to wait 10 years until the bond matures.

而且您不必等到 10 年後債券到期。

- [Jordan] But if you sell a bond,

- [喬丹]但如果你出售債券，

you're not guaranteed to get the face value you paid for it.

你不能保證得到你所支付的面值。

That's because a bond's value in this market

這是因為債券在這個市場上的價值

is always changing.

一直在變化。

In that way,

這樣一來

the bond market looks a bit like the stock market.

債券市場看起來有點像股票市場。

To understand how this risk works in the real world,

瞭解這種風險在現實世界中的作用、

let's look at Silicon Valley Bank

讓我們看看硅谷銀行

- Silicon Valley Bank was getting a lot of money in

- 硅谷銀行獲得了大量資金

from the tech sector,

來自技術部門、

and it needed a place to put that money.

它需要一個地方來存放這些錢。

- [Jordan] So it bought billions of dollars

- [約旦]所以它買了數十億美元

of medium to longer term notes and bonds

中長期票據和債券

for the same reason anyone buys them,

原因相同、

they're a safe place to park money for a while.

它們是暫時存放資金的安全場所。

However, at the time the bank bought these bonds,

然而，當時銀行購買了這些債券、

the interest rate on the bonds was low.

債券利率低。

If the bank had been able to hold its bonds to maturity,

如果銀行能夠持有其債券直至到期、

then the interest rate wouldn't have mattered.

那麼利率就不重要了。

The bank would've cashed in their billions, plus interest,

銀行會兌現他們的數十億美元，外加利息、

and that would've been that.

就這樣了。

Instead, a few things went wrong.

相反，卻出了一些問題。

to ease rising inflation,

以緩解不斷上升的通貨膨脹、

the Treasury increased interest rates.

財政部提高了利率。

And when interest rates rise, bond prices fall.

而當利率上升時，債券價格就會下跌。

This left a roughly 17 billion gap

這就留下了大約 170 億美元的缺口

between what the bank paid for the bonds

銀行為債券支付的金額

and what their value was,

以及它們的價值、

putting the bank in a bad position.

使銀行陷入困境。

To get more cash and buy newer bonds,

獲得更多現金，購買更新的債券、

Silicon Valley Bank had to sell some of their bonds

硅谷銀行不得不出售部分債券

at a loss in the secondary market.

在二級市場上虧損。

This helped trigger a run on the bank

這引發了銀行擠兌

and led to its collapse.

並導致其崩潰。

Now, this is an extreme example

現在，這是一個極端的例子

of what can go wrong in the bond market.

債券市場可能出現的問題。

- What happened to Silicon Valley Bank is not the norm.

- 硅谷銀行的遭遇並非常態。

Most people aren't forced to sell

大多數人不會被迫出售

billions of dollars of bonds at a big loss.

數十億美元的債券，損失慘重。

If you have to sell them early,

如果你不得不提前賣掉它們、

you probably won't see a big loss.

你可能不會看到很大的損失。

And you could even see a gain

你甚至可以看到收益

if interest rates are falling.

如果利率下降。

- Ultimately, there are still no safer investments

- 歸根結底，沒有比這更安全的投資了

than government bonds.

而不是政府債券。

- Stock prices can go down like 4% in a day.

- 股票價格可能在一天內下跌 4%。

On a day-to-day basis,

在日常工作中、

you don't have that risk if you're buying and selling bonds

如果你買賣債券，就不會有這種風險

that you do have in the stock market.

你在股市中擁有的資金。

- [Jordan] That's why they say.

- 這就是為什麼他們說：

- Nothing can touch them.

- 沒有什麼能觸動它們。

- [Jordan] Well, almost nothing.

- 幾乎沒有