In 1990, both countries' demographics resembled a pyramid which meant that there were far more young people being born than there were old people.

1990 年，這兩國的人口結構呈金字塔形，代表出生的年輕人遠遠多於老年人。

But fast forward to projections for 2050, and you'll notice a dramatic change.

但快進到 2050 年的人口預測圖會發現一個巨大的變化。

The Chinese pyramid narrows to resemble a shape more like a funnel.

中國的金字塔變窄，形狀更像漏斗。

For more than two centuries, China has had the largest population in the world.

兩個多世紀以來，中國一直是世界上人口最多的國家。

This year, the UN said India will take its place.

今年，聯合國表示印度將取而代之。

India's population is expected to keep growing for the next four decades, peaking at nearly 1.7 billion in 2063.

印度人口預計將在未來四十年保持增長，並在 2063 年達到近 17 億的高峰。

China's population is projected to shrink rapidly.

中國的人口預計將迅速萎縮。

By the start of the next century, India's population is expected to be double that of China's.

到下個世紀初，印度的人口預計將是中國的兩倍。

All the science point to a very challenging future for China, demographically.

所有的科學都表明，在人口方面，中國的未來充滿挑戰。

Here's why this shift marks a watershed moment for both nations and what the change could mean for the global economy.

這就是為什麼這種轉變標誌著兩國的分水嶺時刻以及這種變化對全球經濟可能意味著什麼。

This year, China announced its first population decline since 1961.

今年，中國宣布了自 1961 年以來的首次人口下降。

In 2020, China's fertility rate⏤or the number of children a woman has over her lifetime⏤came in at 1.3, which is one of the lowest in the world.

2020 年，中國的生育率或一個婦女一生生育的孩子數量為1.3，是世界上最低的國家之一。

The roots of China's demographic crisis can be found in its one-child policy.

中國人口危機的根源在於一胎化政策。

The policy was designed to keep birth low so that China would have the opportunity to grow its economy.

該政策旨在保持低出生率，以便中國有機會發展經濟。

It turns out, in reality, the one-child policy has far more long-lasting impacts the policy makers intended.

事實上，一胎化政策的影響遠比政策制定者預期的要長久。

In a way, it worked too well.

在某種程度上，這個政策太有效果了。

Starting in 1980, most Chinese couples were strictly limited to one child.

從 1980 年開始，大多數中國夫婦只生一個孩子。

Despite reversing the one-child policy in 2016, China's fertility rate has continued to decline.

儘管 2016 年一胎化政策有所逆轉，但中國的生育率仍在持續下降。

The replacement rate needed to keep a population stable is 2.1.

保持人口穩定所需的生育更替率是 2.1。

Meaning that a woman would need to give birth to at least two children to keep the population stable and, essentially, replace the parents.

意思是，一個女人需要生至少兩個孩子才能保持人口穩定並從根本上取代其父母。

With a fertility rate of 2.0, India's fertility rate is slightly lower than the replacement rate.

印度的生育率為 2.0，略低於生育更替率。

The reason why India's population is projected to keep growing for several more decades is because India, unlike China, still has a fairly large group of women of reproductive age.

印度的人口預計還會繼續增長幾十年，這是因為印度仍然有相當多的育齡婦女群體。

That's very different from China.

這與中國有很大不同。

In China, the one-child policy produced a dramatic gender imbalance that originated in strong cultural and social preferences for male children.

在中國，一胎化政策造成了嚴重的性別失衡，這種失衡源於文化和社會對男孩的強烈偏好。

In 2021, the number of marriage registrations plummeted to 7.6 million, the lowest since the government started keeping records in the mid-1980s.

2021 年，中國的結婚登記人數驟降至 760 萬，是自 80 年代中期以來的最低紀錄。

The global economy has grown to rely on China's vast pool of factory workers for manufactured goods,

全球經濟已經發展到依賴中國大量的工人來生產製成品，

and its consumers represent a growing market for Western-made cars and luxury goods.

而中國的消費者代表著西方製造的汽車和奢侈品不斷增長的市場。

A declining Chinese population would mean that there will be fewer workers to make products that are exported to other countries,

中國人口減少意味著製作產品出口到其他國家的工人將會減少，

and there will be fewer consumers, especially younger consumers, to buy goods from other countries.

消費者也會減少，特別是購買其他國家商品的年輕消費者。

In the coming decades, demographers expect China will face a huge worker-to-retiree gap.

在未來幾十年，人口學家預計中國將面臨龐大的勞工與退休人口差距。

In 2020, 14% of China's population was over 64 years old.

2020 年，中國 14% 的人口超過 64 歲。

While in India, just 7% of people were over 64.

而在印度，只有 7% 的人超過 64 歲。

By 2070, nearly 59% of people in China will be over the age of 64.

到 2070 年，中國近 59% 的人口將超過 64 歲。

While in India, only 30% of the population will be in the same age bracket.

而在印度，只有 30% 的人口處於同一年齡段。

A larger group of retirees will mean that younger Chinese people will have a bigger of a burden to support the elderly.

更龐大的退休群體意味著中國年輕人將承擔更大的養老負擔。

That's especially true in the rural areas.

這在農村地區尤其如此。

In some ways, India looks like China did 30 years ago.

在某些方面，印度看起來像三十年前的中國。

It has a rapidly expanding working-age population, with 610 million people under age 25, and relatively few older people to care for.

它的工作年齡人口迅速增加，25 歲以下人口有 6.1 億，需要照顧的老年人相對較少。

India's rising population means it's likely to keep its economy growing, buy more of the world's goods, and play a bigger role in global affairs.

印度不斷增長的人口意味著它可能會保持經濟增長、購買更多世界各地的商品並在全球的事業中發揮更大作用。

But India's rise isn't assured.

但印度的崛起並不確定。

India's problem now is all about jobs.

印度現在的問題全在於就業。

Yes, it does have a large working-age population but, at the same time, it is struggling to create jobs for its young people.

沒錯，它確實有大量的適齡工作人口，但與此同時，它也在努力為年輕人創造就業機會。

India is primarily a rural nation and still lags behind China in urbanization.

印度主要是一個農村國家，在城市化方面仍然落後中國。

Unlike China, where millions of migrant laborers move to cities to work in factories, many Indians are reluctant to leave their hometowns.

與數以百萬計的農民工湧入城市在工廠工作的中國不同，許多印度人不願離開家鄉。

India also significantly lags behind China in terms of female labor participation.

印度在女性勞動參與率方面也明顯落後於中國。

India's cultural norms have meant that families who can't afford to keep their daughters and wives at home prefer to do so.

印度的文化規範意味著無法負擔將女兒和妻子留在家中的家庭更願意這樣讓女性去工作。

When Mao took power, he really pushed the idea that women is equal to men.

毛澤東掌權後，他推動了男女平等的觀念。

For a long time, China's women labor participation rate has been very high, and for India, that seemed to be not the case.

長期以來，中國的女性勞動參與率一直很高，而印度似乎並非如此。

Whatever happens, the world's future population will be tilted more towards the Global South, and South Asia, in particular.

無論發生什麼情況，世界未來的人口將更向南半球和南亞地區傾斜。

In 2060, the three successor states to pre-independence India will have 2.3 billion people versus China's 1.2 billion, guaranteeing profound changes to the global economy.

到 2060 年，獨立前印度的三個繼承國將擁有 23 億人口，而中國將有 12 億人口，全球經濟確定會發生深刻變化。