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  • You are looking at the demographic breakdown of China and India's populations.


  • In 1990, both countries' demographics resembled a pyramid which meant that there were far more young people being born than there were old people.

    1990 年,這兩國的人口結構呈金字塔形,代表出生的年輕人遠遠多於老年人。

  • But fast forward to projections for 2050 and you'll notice a dramatic change.

    但快進到 2050 年的人口預測圖會發現一個巨大的變化。

  • The Chinese pyramid narrows to resemble a shape more like a funnel.


  • For more than two centuries, China has had the largest population in the world.


  • This year, the UN said India will take its place.


  • India's population is expected to keep growing for the next four decades, peaking at nearly 1.7 billion in 2063.

    印度人口預計將在未來四十年保持增長,並在 2063 年達到近 17 億的高峰。

  • China's population is projected to shrink rapidly.


  • By the start of the next century, India's population is expected to be double that of China's.


  • All the science point to a very challenging future for China, demographically.


  • Here's why this shift marks a watershed moment for both nations and what the change could mean for the global economy.


  • This year, China announced its first population decline since 1961.

    今年,中國宣布了自 1961 年以來的首次人口下降。

  • In 2020, China's fertility rate or the number of children a woman has over her lifetime came in at 1.3 which is one of the lowest in the world.

    2020 年,中國的生育率或一個婦女一生生育的孩子數量為1.3,是世界上最低的國家之一。

  • The roots of China's demographic crisis can be found in its one-child policy.


  • The policy was designed to keep birth low so that China would have the opportunity to grow its economy.


  • It turns out, in reality, the one-child policy has far more long-lasting impacts the policy makers intended.


  • In a way, it worked too well.


  • Starting in 1980, most Chinese couples were strictly limited to one child.

    從 1980 年開始,大多數中國夫婦只生一個孩子。

  • Despite reversing the one-child policy in 2016, China's fertility rate is continued to decline.

    儘管 2016 年一胎化政策有所逆轉,但中國的生育率仍在持續下降。

  • The replacement rate needed to keep a population stable is 2.1.

    保持人口穩定所需的生育更替率是 2.1。

  • Meaning that a woman would need to give birth to at least two children to keep the population stable and essentially replace the parents.


  • With a fertility rate of 2.0, India's fertility rate is slightly lower than the replacement rate.

    印度的生育率為 2.0,略低於生育更替率。

  • The reason why India's population is projected to keep growing for several more decades is because India, unlike China, still has a fairly large group of women of reproductive age that's very different from China.


  • In China, the one-child policy produced a dramatic gender imbalance that originated in strong cultural and social preferences for male children.


  • In 2021, the number of marriage registrations plummeted to 7.6 million, the lowest since the government started keeping records in the mid-1980s.

    2021 年,中國的結婚登記人數驟降至 760 萬,是自 80 年代中期以來的最低紀錄。

  • The global economy has grown to rely on China's vast pool of factory workers for manufactured goods and its consumers represent a growing market for western-made cars and luxury goods.


  • A declining Chinese population would mean that there will be fewer workers to make products that are exported to other countries and there will be fewer consumers,


  • especially younger consumers, to buy goods from other countries.


  • In the coming decades, demographers expect China will face a huge worker to retiree gap.


  • In 2020, 14% of China's population was over 64 years old.

    2020 年,中國 14% 的人口超過 64 歲。

  • While in India, just 7% of people were over 64.

    而在印度,只有 7% 的人超過 64 歲。

  • By 2070, nearly 59% of people in China will be over the age of 64.

    到 2070 年,中國近 59% 的人口將超過 64 歲。

  • While in India, only 30% of the population will be in the same age bracket.

    而在印度,只有 30% 的人口處於同一年齡段。

  • A larger group of retirees will mean that younger Chinese people will have a bigger of a burden to support the elderly.


  • That's especially true in the rural areas.


  • In some ways, India looks like China did 30 years ago.


  • It has a rapidly expanding working age population with 610 million people under age 25 and relatively few older people to care for.

    它的工作年齡人口迅速增加,25 歲以下人口有 6.1 億,需要照顧的老年人相對較少。

  • India's rising population means it's likely to keep its economy growing, buy more of the world's goods and play a bigger role in global affairs.


  • But India's rise isn't assured.


  • India's problem now is all about jobs.


  • Yes, it does have a large working age population but at the same time it is struggling to create jobs for its young people.


  • India is primarily a rural nation and still lags behind China in urbanization.


  • Unlike China, where millions of migrant laborers move to cities to work in factories, many Indians are reluctant to leave their hometowns.


  • India also significantly lags behind China in terms of female labor participation.


  • India's cultural norms have meant that families who can't afford to keep their daughters and wives at home prefer to do so.


  • When Mao took power, he really pushed the idea that women is equal to men.


  • For a long time, China's women labor participation rate has been very high and for India, that seemed to be not the case.


  • Whatever happens, the world's future population will be tilted more towards the Global South and South Asia, in particular.


  • In 2060, the three successor states to pre-independence India will have 2.3 billion people versus China's 1.2 billion guaranteeing profound changes to the global economy.

    到 2060 年,獨立前印度的三個繼承國將擁有 23 億人口,而中國將有 12 億人口,全球經濟確定會發生深刻變化。

You are looking at the demographic breakdown of China and India's populations.


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B1 中級 中文

印度人口正式超越中國成世界第一!未來的全球經濟將如何發展? (What India’s Population Surpassing China’s Means for Global Economies | WSJ)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2023 年 05 月 21 日