but behind that general decline is a more interesting story.

但在這種普遍下降的背後是一個更有趣的故事。

I think it's important we try to understand

我認為重要的是，我們要努力瞭解

why people do get married in the first place.

為什麼人們首先要結婚。

For some people, of course, it's a religious matter-

當然，對有些人來說，這是一個宗教問題--

it's a covenantal relationship.

它是一種契約關係。

I think for many more people

我想對於更多的人來說

there's an economic element to it.

這裡面有一個經濟因素。

There's obviously the companionship and love.

顯然，有陪伴和愛。

You fall in love and want to spend

你墜入愛河，想與之共度餘生

the rest of your life with someone,

與某人共度餘生。

and so there's a romantic element to marriage.

是以，婚姻有一個浪漫的元素。

And another reason was because they got pregnant,

而另一個原因則是因為他們懷孕了。

the so-called, "shotgun wedding."

所謂的 "獵槍式婚禮"。

There was a sense that if you were bringing a new life

有一種感覺，如果你把一個新的生命

into the world, that that should be done within marriage.

到世界上，這應該在婚姻內完成。

And there's probably a bit of status signaling to sometimes,

而且有時可能會有一點地位的象徵意義。

and this may be more true today than it was in the past,

而這一點在今天可能比在過去更真實。

that being married is a way

結婚是一種方式

of signaling success and status within a society.

在一個社會中標誌著成功和地位。

And so there's a blend

是以，有一個混合

of reasons between religion, romance, economics

宗教、戀情、經濟之間的原因。

and status that have traditionally led people

和地位，這些都是傳統上導致人們

to the marital state.

到婚姻狀態。

The old model of marriage was, for the woman,

舊的婚姻模式是，對女人來說。

it was an economic necessity

這是一種經濟需要

particularly if she was gonna have children;

特別是如果她要生孩子的話。

to be with a man who would be the provider.

與一個將成為提供者的男人在一起。

And obviously that has hugely changed now.

顯然，現在已經發生了巨大的變化。

And for the man, it was a way to attach himself to children.

而對於這個人來說，這是一種將自己與孩子們聯繫在一起的方式。

If he was gonna have children

如果他要生孩子

he had to do that with a woman.

他不得不和一個女人做這些。

She was going to raise the children,

她要撫養孩子。

but if she was doing that, he had to provide for them too.

但如果她這樣做，他也必須為他們提供服務。

And so there was this complementarity

於是就有了這種互補性

to that traditional view of marriage,

對這種傳統的婚姻觀。

which of course was founded

當然，它是由

on a very deep inequality between men and women.

在男女之間非常深刻的不平等上。

That was a driving force-

這是一種驅動力

the women's movement, including people, like Gloria Steinem,

婦女運動，包括像格洛麗亞-斯坦尼姆這樣的人。

saying the point is to make marriage

說重點是要讓婚姻

into a choice rather than a necessity,

變成一種選擇，而不是一種必要。

and to actually free women from the economic bondage,

並使婦女真正擺脫經濟束縛。

as they would've put it, of marriage.

正如他們所說的，婚姻。

And that inequality is what's been successfully

而這種不平等是已經成功的

shattered, gladly, by the women's movement.

被婦女運動打碎了，很高興。

- 'All of us must stand up together and say no more.'

- '我們所有人都必須一起站起來，說不再有。

- The very institution of marriage,

- 婚姻制度本身。

which is central to human societies,

這是人類社會的核心。

has been fundamentally transformed.

已經發生了根本性的轉變。

It's one engaged into, in very egalitarian principles;

這是一個從事到，在非常平等主義的原則。

women have huge exit power.

婦女有巨大的退出權。

I think it's important to know

我認為了解以下情況很重要

that women are twice as likely as men to file for divorce.

女性提出離婚的可能性是男性的兩倍。

So women are using exit power from marriage,

是以，婦女正在使用來自婚姻的退出權。

they're not stuck in bad marriages anymore-

他們不再被困在糟糕的婚姻中了--

which is a huge achievement for humanity.

這對人類來說是一個巨大的成就。

But for men, of course, the old role of,

但是，對於男人來說，當然是舊的角色。

"Well, I'll just provide while you raise the kids,"

"好吧，我只是提供，而你養育孩子。"

that's out of the window too.

這也是窗外的事。

And so men's role in marriage

是以，男人在婚姻中的角色

and what it means to be "marriageable,"

以及 "適婚 "的含義，"

to use a slightly ugly term from social science,

使用社會科學中一個略顯醜陋的術語。

is very different now for men from what it was in the past.

現在的男性與過去有很大不同。

And women are looking

而女性正在尋找

for something much more than just a paycheck.

這不僅僅是為了一份薪水，而是為了更多的東西。

It's a bit like the kaleidoscope has been shaken,

這有點像萬花筒被搖動了。

and the patterns haven't quite settled yet.

和模式還沒有完全穩定下來。

You see lesbian and gay couples

你看到女同性戀者和男同性戀者的夫婦

being able to opt into marriage.

能夠選擇結婚。

Within a couple of years of the Supreme Court Decision,

在最高法院裁決後的幾年內。

we saw most three outta five lesbian

我們看到最多的是五個女同性戀者中的三個

and gay couples choosing to get married.

和同志夫婦選擇結婚。

You see a big class gap opening up: fewer working class

你看到一個巨大的階級差距正在形成：更少的工人階級

and lower income Americans opting into the institution.

和低收入的美國人選擇進入該機構。

What we have is what my colleague Isabel Sawhill calls:

我們所擁有的是我的同事伊莎貝爾-索希爾所稱的。

"One of the main class fractures in American society."

"美國社會的主要階級裂痕之一"。

No one expected that it was Americans

沒有人想到，是美國人

with the most choice and the most economic power,

擁有最多選擇和最多經濟實力的人。

and especially the American women

特別是美國婦女

with the most choice and economic power,

擁有最多的選擇權和經濟實力。

who would be the ones who were continuing to get married

誰將是繼續結婚的人

and stay married.

並保持婚姻關係。

There's a very slight decline for those say

有一個非常輕微的下降，對於那些說

with four-year college degrees, but a really big decline

擁有四年制大學學位的人，但真正的大幅下降

for those with, with less education.

對於那些受教育程度較低的人來說。

The typical college-educated American woman

典型的受過大學教育的美國婦女

is almost as likely to get married as her mother was,

幾乎和她母親一樣有可能結婚。

and if anything, a little bit more likely to stay married

而且如果有的話，更有可能保持婚姻。

than her mother was.

比她母親還要好。

So, there really hasn't been much of a decline

是以，真的沒有出現太大的下降。

in marriage at all in the top ranks of American society.

在美國社會的最高層中，根本沒有婚姻。

Meanwhile, significant declines lower down.

同時，在較低的位置出現了明顯的下降。

One of the other big changes has been

其他大的變化之一是

a significant shift up in the age of first marriage,

初婚年齡大幅提高。

up to closer to 30 now.

現在已經接近30了。

And I think about my parents who married

我想到了我的父母，他們結婚後

at 21 having met at 17-pretty common.

21歲的人在17歲時相遇，這很常見。

And actually as late as 1970, most women who went to college

而實際上，遲至1970年，大多數上大學的婦女

in the U.S., which was a minority of course,

在美國，這當然是少數。

but most of them were married

但他們中的大多數人都已結婚

within a year of graduating college.

在大學畢業的一年內。

That's a world that's very difficult to fathom now;

那是一個現在非常難以想象的世界。

where both men and women are entering the labor market,

其中男性和女性都在進入勞動力市場。

they're becoming economically successful,

他們在經濟上變得成功。

they're establishing themselves.

他們正在建立自己。

In some ways, you do all that first, then you marry.

在某些方面，你先做所有這些，然後再結婚。

And so, marriage has become more like the capstone.

是以，婚姻已變得更像頂層建築。

Increasingly, marriage is a signal of everything

越來越多地，婚姻是一切的信號

that has led up to the ceremony,

導致了這一儀式的舉行。

rather than the beginning of a journey.

而不是一個旅程的開始。

It's as much the end of a journey

這是一個旅程的結束。

to a position where people feel they can get married now.

到人們覺得現在可以結婚的地位。

We can't tell a single story about marriage

我們無法講述一個關於婚姻的故事

in America anymore in the way we could just 40 years ago.

在美國，我們再也不能像40年前那樣了。

We have to tell different stories based

我們必須根據不同的故事來講述

on class and race and geography.

關於階級、種族和地理的問題。

We've seen this real divide opening up

我們已經看到這種真正的鴻溝正在打開

in marriage in the U.S.

在美國的婚姻中。

Americans, now, are much less likely to see marriage

美國人，現在，更不可能看到婚姻

as something that you have to do to

作為你必須要做的事情

to be a complete person or have a good life.

以成為一個完整的人或擁有一個美好的生活。

Only 1 in 10 Americans now believe

現在只有1/10的美國人相信

that it's essential to be married

結婚是必須的

to have a fulfilling life.

以擁有一個充實的生活。

That's a huge cultural change.

這是一個巨大的文化變化。

I think what we can safely say is that the model

我認為我們可以肯定地說，該模型

of marriage that was founded on economic dependency

建立在經濟依賴性基礎上的婚姻

of women on men, is completely obsolete.

女性對男性的影響，已經完全過時了。

Now, I think we've created models of the family

現在，我認為我們已經創建了家庭的模型

that are much more equal and much fairer,

這是更平等和更公平的。

but maybe not quite as stable in many cases too.

但在許多情況下可能也不太穩定。

And the challenge we all face is to find ways

而我們都面臨的挑戰是要找到方法

to create more stability in our family life,

以便在我們的家庭生活中創造更多的穩定性。

but without sacrificing the goal of equality,

但沒有犧牲平等的目標。

which has animated the movement of the last 50 years.

在過去的50年裡，它為運動注入了活力。

I think what we should be looking to is,

我認為我們應該關注的是。

how do we have strong relationships

我們如何擁有強大的關係

within which people can raise kids well?

在其中，人們可以很好地養育孩子？

And if marriage has a part to play in that, then great.

如果婚姻在其中發揮了作用，那就太好了。

But there are alternative models

但也有替代模式

around civil partnerships and so on, too.

圍繞民事夥伴關係等等，也是如此。

What matters is parenting.

重要的是養育孩子。

What matters is how we raise our kids.

重要的是我們如何培養我們的孩子。

And I do think that there-

而且我確實認為，有...

it's quite possible to imagine a renewed future for marriage

很有可能想象出婚姻的新的未來

based around egalitarianism between men and women,

圍繞著男女之間的平等主義。

but a shared commitment to kids-

但對孩子們的共同承諾

but I think that's for us to create.

但我認為那是由我們來創造的。

If marriage is to survive, it will be in a new model,

如果婚姻要生存下去，它將是一個新的模式。

not a restoration of the old model.

而不是恢復舊模式。

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