字幕列表 影片播放 由 AI 自動生成 列印所有字幕 列印翻譯字幕 列印英文字幕 - People are getting increasingly anxious - 人們變得越來越焦慮 about the world that we live in: 關於我們所處的世界。 I'm finding a lot of panic, people that are very online, 我發現有很多恐慌的人,這些人非常在線。 spending too much time on cable news and social media, 花太多時間在有線電視新聞和社交媒體上。 and maybe talking to their crazy uncle. 也許還可以和他們的瘋子叔叔談談。 This is meant to be a counterbalance, 這是要作為一種平衡。 that you can keep the uncle 你可以保持叔叔 but you can also spend some time 但你也可以花一些時間 thinking about deeper analytic trends 思考更深層次的分析趨勢 of what really is an issue 什麼是真正的問題 that's worth concerning yourself with, 這是值得關注的。 how we might be able to respond to it, 我們如何能夠對它作出反應。 and also all the things that, frankly, 還有所有的事情,坦率地說。 don't merit the screaming headlines. 並不值得大驚小怪的頭條新聞。 What we're talking about in the Top Risks Report 我們在《最高風險報告》中所談論的內容 are those risks out there, globally, 在全球範圍內,這些風險是存在的。 that are going to have the most likely dramatic implications 將會產生最可能的戲劇性影響的問題 in changing the way the world works 在改變世界運作方式方面 in ways that are unanticipated 以意想不到的方式 by all of the major actors in that world: 在這個世界上,所有的主要行為者都是如此。 the government actors, the business actors, 政府行為者、企業行為者。 and the citizens. 和公民。 And they're ranked in terms of impact, 並按影響大小進行了排名。 imminence, and likelihood- 迫切性和可能性-- you put those three things together 你把這三樣東西放在一起 and you get the top risks. 而你得到的是頂級風險。 I'm Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, 我是伊恩-布雷默,歐亞集團的總裁。 and these are the top risks of 2023. 而這些是2023年的首要風險。 Number 10: Water stress. 第10項:水的壓力。 Around the world, so many people think of water 在世界範圍內,有很多人認為水 as a sudden emergency 突發事件 that needs a quick and immediate policy response. 這需要快速和即時的政策反應。 Increasingly, this is an ongoing, 越來越多地,這是一個持續的問題。 real-time issue for everyone. 對每個人來說都是實時問題。 Some people have too much water; 有些人的水太多了。 massive floods in California. 加州的大規模洪水。 Some people have too little; 有些人的數量太少。 huge challenges with shipping in Europe. 歐洲的航運面臨巨大挑戰。 Farmers having to consistently change the way they go 農民不得不持續改變他們的方式 about their basic productivity on a season-to-season basis 關於他們在每一季的基本生產力 because they do not have adequate resources 因為他們沒有足夠的資源 to be able to plant a normal season. 以便能夠種植一個正常的季節。 This is having the biggest impact on the Middle East 這對中東地區的影響最大 and sub-Saharan Africa, but it's a global issue. 和撒哈拉以南非洲,但這是一個全球問題。 There are global responses, 有全球性的反應。 just like the COP summits on biodiversity 就像締約方大會關於生物多樣性的峰會一樣 and on carbon emissions, 和碳排放問題。 there's a COP summit on water, 有一個關於水的締約方會議首腦會議。 but no one's ever heard of it 但沒有人聽說過它 because it doesn't really do anything, 因為它並沒有真正做什麼。 it hasn't become a priority, 它還沒有成為一個優先事項。 therefore, it's not getting the resources, 是以,它沒有得到資源。 and therefore it's getting worse every single year. 是以,它每年都在惡化。 2023 is really the first year 2023年是真正的第一年 that I think we can talk about global water 我認為我們可以談論全球水問題 as being the kind of ongoing condition of stress 是一種持續的壓力狀況 that we've already come to learn 我們已經認識到 about carbon, about biodiversity. 關於碳,關於生物多樣性。 Number nine: TikTok boom. 第九位。TikTok的繁榮。 It's not actually about TikTok, 這其實不是關於TikTok的。 it's about the generation that has grown up on TikTok. 這是關於在TikTok上成長起來的那一代人。 It's the most diverse generation we've ever seen 這是我們所見過的最多樣化的一代人 in the West. 在西方國家。 It's also, by far, the most activist. 到目前為止,它也是最積極的。 At a young age, believing that they can do much more 在年輕的時候,相信他們可以做得更多 by getting online and by demonstrating, 通過上網和展示。 than they can by voting, 而不是通過投票。 and that has much greater impact, 而這有更大的影響。 both in terms of driving agendas 在推動議程方面都是如此 that are very important to them, like on climate, 這對他們來說非常重要,比如在氣候方面。 like on social equity- 像在社會公平上- also in terms of changing outcomes 在改變結果方面也是如此 for people in positions of power, 為有權力的人。 and here I'm thinking not just about political leaders 在這裡,我想到的不僅僅是政治領導人 but also about industry leaders, CEOs, bankers, 但也有關於行業領袖、首席執行官、銀行家。 and the like. 和類似的東西。 That is going to create big ripple waves 這將會產生很大的波瀾 across the global economy 整個全球經濟 precisely because it's the most progressive generation, 正是因為它是最進步的一代。 and as a consequence, it will cause more volatility, 是以,它將導致更多的波動。 will lead to more political and economic change- 將導致更多的政治和經濟變化- much of which will eventually be welcomed- 其中大部分最終將受到歡迎-- but the getting from here to there is, of course, 但從這裡到那裡的過程當然是。 gonna be a challenge. 將是一個挑戰。 Number eight: Divided States of America. 第八位。分裂的美國。 Now, the fact that it's number eight, the United States, 現在,事實上,它是第八位,美國。 and the U.S. is the most powerful country in the world, 而美國是世界上最強大的國家。 kinda means it almost didn't make the list, 這意味著它幾乎沒有上榜。 means that we are not panicking 意味著我們不慌不忙 about the future of the United States, but still, 關於美國的未來,但仍然。 divisions in the United States, politically, 在美國,政治上的分裂。 are massive, they're much greater 是巨大的,他們是更大的 than those of other advanced industrial economies 比其他先進的工業經濟體更多 around the world, 世界各地。 that makes it a lot harder to functionally govern. 這使得它更難在功能上進行治理。 You saw this with 15 votes 你看到這個有15票 to get Kevin McCarthy barely over the line 以使凱文-麥卡錫勉強過關 as Speaker of the House, 作為眾議院議長。 and he's gonna have an impossible time 他將會有一個不可能的時間 actually holding that party together. 實際上是將該黨組織在一起。 You also see this 你也看到了這個 with inability to even address fundamental issues 甚至無法解決基本問題 like improving education, 如改善教育。 or dealing with immigration in the United States, 或處理美國的移民問題。 even though we all know what the basic answers are. 儘管我們都知道基本答案是什麼。 But the big positive in this risk is the fact 但這一風險中最大的積極因素是 that all of the people that were running 所有正在運行的人 for key positions of governor and Secretary of State 競選州長和國務卿的關鍵職位 to oversee upcoming elections, 以監督即將到來的選舉。 those that were claiming 聲稱的那些人 that this election was gonna be stolen 這場選舉會被偷走 and they had to stop the steal, they all lost. 而他們不得不停止偷竊,他們都輸了。 So as we look forward to 2024, 是以,當我們展望2024年的時候。 the likelihood of a constitutional crisis 發生憲法危機的可能性 in the United States is virtually zero. 在美國幾乎為零。 Number seven is arrested global development. 第七個問題是全球發展受阻。 For 50 years, the world has seen 50年來,世界已經看到 incredible human improvement in education, 令人難以置信的人類在教育方面的改進。 in health and lifespan, 在健康和壽命方面。 in economic growth across the world- 在全世界的經濟增長中- it wasn't just a tiny group of rich people 這不僅僅是一小撮富人的事 that were taking advantage, it was the emergence 的優勢,是出現了 of a global middle class. 全球中產階級的發展。 We are now seeing that turn around: 我們現在正看到這種情況的轉變。 we're seeing more people driven into poverty, 我們看到更多的人陷入貧困。 we're seeing more children leaving school, and particularly, 我們看到更多的孩子離開學校,特別是。 a burden on women being driven into sexual trafficking, 對被驅使進行性販運的婦女來說是一種負擔。 being driven into the informal economy, 被趕入非正規經濟。 not being able to experience the basic human rights 無法體驗到基本的人權 that they've worked so hard to achieve 他們如此努力工作所取得的成果 over the last 50 years. 在過去的50年裡。 The United Nations estimates 聯合國估計 that five years of human development on the planet 這五年來人類在地球上的發展 has been lost in the three years 在這三年中已經失去了 since the pandemic has begun, and in 2023, 自該大流行病開始以來,以及在2023年。 those losses will only accelerate. 這些損失只會加速。 There are lots of structural reasons for that, 這有很多結構上的原因。 some of it is, of course, the dangers of the pandemic, 當然,其中一些是大流行病的危險。 some of it is the challenges that came 其中一些是來自的挑戰 from the disruptions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 從俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的干擾中。 all the supply chain challenges, 所有的供應鏈挑戰。 and the inflation that came on the back of it, 以及在此基礎上出現的通貨膨脹。 some of it is climate change. 其中一些是氣候變化。 You put all of those things together 你把所有這些東西放在一起 and global development is changing trajectory. 和全球發展正在改變軌跡。 Number six: Energy crunch. 第六:能源緊縮。 The Russian invasion of Ukraine means 俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵意味著 that the Europeans are no longer getting their gas 歐洲人不再得到他們的天然氣了。 and much of their oil from Russia, 而他們的大部分石油來自俄羅斯。 one of the largest energy producers in the world. 是世界上最大的能源生產國之一。 But the Europeans need their energy, 但歐洲人需要他們的能量。 what are they doing? 他們在做什麼? They're spending as much as humanly possible 他們正在儘可能多地花費人力物力 to get the energy from anywhere else they can, 從其他任何地方獲得能量,他們可以。 that drives prices up, 這促使價格上漲。 but it also means that developing countries 但這也意味著,開發中國家 that don't have access to the same deep pockets 沒有機會獲得同樣深的口袋的人 that the Europeans do are really taking it in the teeth. 歐洲人所做的是真正地把它放在牙齒上。 So over the course of the year, 是以,在這一年的時間裡。 the Europeans are going to experience 歐洲人將會經歷 another challenging winter, 又一個具有挑戰性的冬天。 in many ways more challenging in 2023 than in 2022, 在許多方面,2023年比2022年更具挑戰性。 because they don't have the benefits 因為他們沒有好處 of all of that Russian energy that was coming in 所有進入的俄羅斯能源 at the beginning of the year like they did last year, 像去年一樣,在年初的時候。 but also it means that the knock-on challenges 但這也意味著,連鎖反應的挑戰 for the poorer countries that are not commodity producers 對非商品生產國的較貧窮國家而言 around the world, gonna feel very great stress this year. 世界各地的人,今年會感到非常大的壓力。 Number five: Iran in a corner. 五號。伊朗在一個角落裡。 Demonstrations across Iran erupted months ago 幾個月前,伊朗各地爆發了示威活動 with the killing of Mahsa Amini, a young woman 謀殺了年輕女子馬赫薩-阿米尼(Mahsa Amini)。 who was not correctly wearing her head scarf, 她沒有正確佩戴頭巾。 killed by the "morality police," so-called, in Iran, 在伊朗被所謂的 "道德警察 "殺害。 and it touched off the greatest demonstrations 並引發了最大的示威活動 they've had on the ground since the 1979 revolution- 自1979年革命以來,他們在當地擁有的... and the Iranian government is only repressing in response, 而伊朗政府只是進行鎮壓作為迴應。 there's no willingness to have a dialogue or compromise. 沒有進行對話或妥協的意願。 No, in fact, we see, increasingly, 不,事實上,我們看到,越來越多。 the Iranian government is willing to execute their citizens 伊朗政府願意處決他們的公民 with no reason. 毫無理由。 At the same time as that's going on, 在這一過程中,在同一時間。 the JCPOA, the Iranian Nuclear Deal JCPOA,即伊朗核協議 the Americans stepped away from unilaterally, 美國人單方面脫離了。 well, the Iranians are stepping away from it too, 好了,伊朗人也在一步步遠離它。 and they've now achieved 'nuclear breakout,' 而他們現在已經實現了'核突圍'。 their willingness to engage 他們願意參與 in nuclear development enrichment that would allow them 在核開發濃縮方面,將允許他們 to build nuclear weapons when the inspectors aren't there. 當檢查員不在時,他們會建造核武器。 And finally, the Iranians are Russia's best friend 最後,伊朗人是俄羅斯的好朋友 on the global stage. 在全球舞臺上。 Chinese aren't providing them 中國人並沒有提供這些東西 with military support to invade Ukraine, but Iran is, 與軍事支持入侵烏克蘭,但伊朗是。 that's angering the Americans, angering the Europeans. 這讓美國人感到憤怒,讓歐洲人感到憤怒。 The likelihood we see regime change in Iran 我們看到伊朗政權變化的可能性 is relatively low, and even if it were to occur, 是相對較低的,而且即使它發生了。 it would probably be towards a military dictatorship, 它可能會走向軍事獨裁。 not to a democracy; 而不是對民主國家。 it's not gonna help in resolving any of these issues. 這對解決這些問題沒有任何幫助。 But the likelihood that we see military confrontation 但我們看到軍事對抗的可能性是 between Iran and a new Netanyahu-led right-wing coalition 伊朗與內塔尼亞胡上司的新右翼聯盟之間的關係 in Israel, 在以色列。 Saudi Arabia, and even the United States, 沙特阿拉伯,甚至是美國。 that's higher than at any point 這比任何時候都高 since the Iranian Nuclear Deal was signed. 自伊朗核協議簽署以來。 Number four: Inflation shockwaves. 第四個。通貨膨脹的衝擊波。 Should surprise no one that, 沒有人應該感到驚訝。 after a staggering contraction of the global economy 在全球經濟出現驚人的收縮之後 that came with COVID, 這是與COVID一起出現的。 the global economy basically shut down, 全球經濟基本關閉。 and an enormous fiscal outlay 和巨大的財政支出 from every major economy in the world to ensure 來自世界上每個主要經濟體的專家,以確保 that all the people that were suffering, 所有正在受苦的人。 had their businesses closed, 他們的企業被關閉。 and lost their jobs, would still be able to get through 和失去工作的人,仍然能夠通過 while the economy contracted, 而經濟收縮。 and then the economies open up, but not at the same time, 然後經濟開放,但不是在同一時間。 and the shipments and ships, they're not in the right place. 和運輸和船舶,他們不在正確的地方。 So what happens is a consequence of all of that: 是以,所發生的事情是所有這些的後果。 While people are ready to spend money, 當人們準備花錢的時候。 supply chains are massively disrupted, 供應鏈被大規模地破壞了。 costs go way up, and costs go way up around the world, 成本大大增加,世界各地的成本都大大增加。 doesn't matter if you were Biden, 如果你是拜登,這並不重要。 or you were the Europeans, 或者你是歐洲人。 or you were the Chinese, the Brits, the Japanese, 或者你是中國人、英國人、日本人。 everyone experiencing generational levels of inflation. 每個人都在經歷一代人的通貨膨脹水準。 Overall, global growth from 6% in 2021 to 3% in 2022, 總體而言,全球增長從2021年的6%降至2022年的3%。 expecting less than 2% in 2023- that's a global recession. 預計2023年將低於2%,這就是全球經濟衰退。 The implications of that around the world 這對世界的影響 will be very serious, 將是非常嚴重的。 especially given levels of present inflation. 特別是考慮到目前的通貨膨脹水準。 The wealthy countries have the money 富裕的國家有資金 to be able to continue to ensure that their working classes, 以便能夠繼續確保他們的工人階級。 their middle classes, are taken care of, 他們的中產階級,被照顧得很好。 but the real issue is for developing countries 但真正的問題是對開發中國家來說 who don't have the fiscal space 沒有財政空間的人 to be able to make these payments 以便能夠支付這些款項 to the rest of populations; 對其他人口的影響。 they'll put policies in place 他們會把政策落實到位 that will only make 這隻會使 the much-more indebted dollar-denominated debt, 負債更多的美元計價債務。 in many cases, with higher interest rates 在許多情況下會有更高的利率 that they will not be able to service, leading to collapse. 他們將無法提供服務,導致崩潰。 The social instability, the political instability 社會不穩定,政治不穩定 that comes from these economic challenges 這些經濟挑戰所帶來的 on much of the developing world, is at higher levels in 2023 對發展中世界的大部分地區,在2023年處於較高的水準 than we have seen in decades. 比我們幾十年來看到的還要多。 Number three: Weapons of Mass Disruption. 三號。大規模破壞性武器。 The United States, back in 1989 when the wall came down, 美國,早在1989年隔離牆倒塌時。 was the leading exporter of democracy around the world, 是世界上主要的民主輸出國。 not always with successful outcomes, 並不總是有成功的結果。 frequently hypocritically, but nonetheless, 雖然經常是虛偽的,但還是如此。 that's how the wall came down, 這就是牆壁倒塌的原因。 that's how the Soviet Union was defeated. 這就是蘇聯被打敗的原因。 In 2023, only 30 years later, 在2023年,僅30年後。 the United States has become the principle exporter of tools 美國已經成為工具的主要出口國。 that destroy democracy. 破壞民主。 That's not the intention of the U.S. government, 這不是美國政府的意圖。 it's not even the intention of the technology companies 這甚至不是技術公司的意圖 that have these algorithms, 有這些算法的。 it is an unintended consequence of the business model 這是商業模式的一個意外後果。 and the AI capabilities. 和人工智能的能力。 But we are seeing the exploitation of these tools 但我們看到這些工具的利用 by bad actors. 由不良行為者。 With deepfakes in video, 與視頻中的deepfakes。 and other tools that are used 和其他工具的使用 both politically and economically 在政治上和經濟上 to achieve changes in your behavior, 以實現你行為的改變。 both in the marketplace and in politics, 在市場上和政治上都是如此。 will pose great dangers to representative democracy, 將對代議制民主構成巨大的危險。 as well as the proper functioning of the free market. 以及自由市場的正常運作。 That's why Brazil had their January 8th events 這就是為什麼巴西有1月8日的活動 that looked an awful lot 這看起來是一個非常大的 like those in the United States in January 6th: 像美國1月6日的那些人一樣。 without Instagram, without Facebook, 沒有Instagram,沒有Facebook。 without all of these algorithms 沒有所有這些算法 driving all these conspiracy theories, 推動所有這些陰謀論。 you don't get tens of thousands of Brazilians 你沒有得到數以萬計的巴西人 that believe that their election was stolen, 認為他們的選舉被盜的人。 and are prepared to throw away their futures 並準備丟棄他們的未來 in order to occupy these buildings. 以佔據這些建築。 We're gonna see a lot more of this, 我們會看到更多這樣的情況。 Brazil's not about to fall apart, 巴西並沒有要垮掉。 just as the United States was not, but around the world 就像美國沒有一樣,但在世界範圍內 democracies are becoming more vulnerable 民主國家正變得更加脆弱 because these tools are being exported, 因為這些工具正在被出口。 and no one is able to stop them. 而且沒有人能夠阻止他們。 Number Two: Maximum Xi. 第二條:最大限度的習。 Xi Jinping is now the undisputed leader of China, 習近平現在是中國無可爭議的領導人。 he has rid himself of term limits, 他已經擺脫了任期限制。 he can be president for life. 他可以當一輩子的總統。 He has also surrounded himself, in the Communist Party, 他還把自己包圍起來,在共產黨內。 the entire hierarchy, with only loyalists. 整個等級制度,只有忠誠的人。 That don't have checks and balances, 這沒有制衡。 and as a consequence he can make mistakes. Those mistakes can be big, 是以,他可能會犯錯誤。 這些錯誤可能是很大的。 they can have major implications for how the world actually works. 它們會對世界的實際運作方式產生重大影響。 This is not the way China was run 10 years ago, 這不是10年前中國的管理方式。 there was a lot of differentiation 有很多的差異化 between hardliners, on the military, 在強硬派之間,在軍事上。 and people that wanted more pragmatic economic outcomes- 和希望獲得更多務實的經濟成果的人-- technocrats, the Shanghai Clan, Beijing, you name it- 技術官僚,上海幫,北京,你的名字 -- but today you are with Xi or you are out. 但今天,你要麼和習近平在一起,要麼被淘汰。 We saw that with the treatment 我們看到,隨著治療 of the former president, Hu Jintao, forced removal 前國家主席胡錦濤,被迫撤職 in front of the entire communist party leadership 在整個共產黨領導層面前 was an extraordinary display of the unique power 這是一次獨特的力量展示 that Xi Jinping was prepared to exercise, 習近平準備行使這一權利。 and every person in that room understood 而房間裡的每個人都明白 that there but for the grace of God, 惟有神的恩典。 or Xi, go there. 或習,去那裡。 We saw that with the sudden turn from zero COVID 我們看到,從零COVID突然轉向 to maximum COVID, made by a snap decision 到最大的COVID,由一個快速的決定作出的 of the Chinese president at the end of the year. 的中國總統在今年年底。 That level of uncertainty 這種不確定性的程度 does not just involve changing the path on COVID, 並不只是涉及改變COVID上的路徑。 it also involves treatment of technology companies, 它還涉及對技術公司的處理。 engagement in the global economy, 在全球經濟中的參與。 even issues of fundamental national security. 甚至是關係到國家根本安全的問題。 Now, the good news is that the United States and China 現在,好消息是,美國和中國 are not in a cold war, they don't want a cold war. 不是在冷戰中,他們不希望有冷戰。 Indeed, after the G20 in Bali, 的確,在巴厘島的G20會議之後。 Xi Jinping and President Biden put a floor 習近平和拜登總統把一個地板 underneath the relationship to ensure 下的關係,以確保 that it couldn't continue to deteriorate 它不可能繼續惡化 in ways that would be damaging to both countries, 對兩國都有損害的方式。 but many companies around the world see Maximum Xi 但世界各地的許多公司都認為最大限度地提高習 and are discomforted by it. 併為此感到不舒服。 As a consequence, 其結果是。 they are themselves taking decisions 他們自己在做決定 to start to decouple further from the Chinese economy, 開始與中國經濟進一步脫鉤。 unwinding globalization, 解除全球化的束縛。 decreasing global market efficiency, 降低了全球市場效率。 and creating challenges for the global economy. 併為全球經濟帶來挑戰。 And number one: Rogue Russia. 而第一。流氓俄羅斯。 Over the course of one year, 在一年的時間裡。 Russia has gone from a global power, 俄羅斯已經從一個全球大國。 standing as the most important friend, 作為最重要的朋友而站立。 without global limits, with China's Xi Jinping, 沒有全球限制,與中國的習近平。 to becoming a rogue state, 成為一個無賴國家。 isolated from the entire group 孤立於整個群體之外 of advanced industrial economies, 的先進工業經濟體。 cut off economically from Europe, 在經濟上與歐洲隔絕。 their most important trading partners, 他們最重要的貿易伙伴。 and facing staggering losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. 並在烏克蘭的戰場上面臨驚人的損失。 There is no way for Putin to turn this around 普京沒有辦法扭轉這一局面 under any circumstances, 在任何情況下。 he cannot achieve the status quo ante 他不能實現原狀 of February 23rd, 2月23日。 before he decided to invade the independent Ukraine. 在他決定入侵獨立的烏克蘭之前。 Rather, NATO is enlarging, 相反,北約正在擴大。 with thousands of troops forward deployed, 有數以千計的部隊在前方部署。 Ukraine has become one of the most powerful military states 烏克蘭已成為最強大的軍事國家之一 in the continent of Europe. 在歐洲大陸。 The Europeans have moved away 歐洲人已經搬走了 from their energy supply from Russia, 從他們來自俄羅斯的能源供應。 and they'll never return to it, 而且他們再也不會回到這裡了。 and from a political perspective, 並從政治角度來看。 the Russians have become seen as war criminals 俄國人已被視為戰犯 by the United States 美國 and all of its critical allies around the world. 以及其在世界各地的所有重要盟友。 Russia is not going anywhere: 俄羅斯哪裡都不會去。 Putin is not going to be forced out of office 普京不會被強迫下臺 in the foreseeable future, and as a consequence, 在可預見的未來,作為一個結果。 the question is what is he going to do? 問題是他要做什麼? Because the reason Putin's losing 因為普京之所以會輸 is because he's fighting not just Ukraine, but NATO. 是因為他不僅在與烏克蘭作戰,而且在與北約作戰。 This is essentially a proxy war 這本質上是一場代理戰爭 where the Americans and all of their allies 美國人和他們所有的盟友在那裡 are doing everything they can to provide the training, 他們正在盡一切努力提供培訓。 the intelligence, and the military support 情報,和軍事支持 to ensure that Ukraine can defend itself, 以確保烏克蘭能夠自衛。 retake its territory, 奪回其領土。 and bloody the Russians after their illegal invasion. 並在俄羅斯人非法入侵後血洗他們。 The Russians have taken this war thus far to Ukraine, 到目前為止,俄羅斯人已經把這場戰爭帶到了烏克蘭。 but it's hard to imagine that it'll stop there. 但很難想象它將止步於此。 Remember, Russia has 6,000 nuclear weapons, 請記住,俄羅斯有6,000件核武器。 more than anybody else in the world, 比世界上任何其他人都要多。 and so they feel that they have the ultimate deterrent 所以他們覺得他們有最終的威懾力 to stop a third World War, 以阻止第三次世界大戰的發生。 which means that asymmetric attacks like cyber, 這意味著像網絡的不對稱攻擊。 like fiber, like proxy strikes, like pipeline attacks, 像纖維,像代理打擊,像管道攻擊。 like terrorism, into NATO states, 像恐怖主義一樣,進入北約國家。 much like what the Iranians have done in the Middle East 很像伊朗人在中東的所作所為 over the past years, 在過去幾年中。 does lead to a consolidation of the allies: 確實導致了盟國的鞏固。 We saw the Abraham Accords 我們看到了《亞伯拉罕協議》。 between Israel and the Gulf states, 以色列和海灣國家之間的關係。 you're seeing NATO becoming much stronger, 你看到北約變得更加強大。 but it also means much more danger 但這也意味著更多的危險 for these countries going forward as well. 對這些國家來說,未來也是如此。 The potential for mutually-assured destruction 相互保證的破壞的可能性 because of accidents and miscalculations 因為事故和誤判 in and around the battlefield will be higher in 2023 在2023年,戰場上和周圍的人將會更多 as a consequence of this war, 作為這場戰爭的結果。 than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. 比1962年古巴飛彈危機以來的任何時候都多。
B1 中級 中文 全球 經濟 伊朗 國家 俄羅斯 世界 2023年10大世界性威脅排行|Ian Bremmer (10 biggest world threats of 2023, ranked | Ian Bremmer) 41 3 Summer 發佈於 2023 年 01 月 25 日 更多分享 分享 收藏 回報 影片單字