and politicians from the international community to discuss some of the

和國際社會的政治家們討論了一些問題。

world's most pressing issues every January.

每年1月，世界上最緊迫的問題。

Only this winter, there is one notable exception.

只是這個冬天，有一個明顯的例外。

This is the former Russia House, which was converted into the “Russian War Crimes House”

這是以前的俄羅斯之家，被改造成 "俄羅斯戰爭罪行之家"。

in 2022, showcasing an art exhibit of the atrocities committed in Ukraine.

2022年，展示了一個關於在烏克蘭犯下的暴行的藝術展覽。

In 2023, a new tenant has taken over and there's no trace of Russia's presence.

2023年，一個新的租戶已經接管，沒有俄羅斯存在的痕跡。

Russian public figures and business delegates — once a key presence here — have been

俄羅斯公眾人物和商業代表--曾經是這裡的主要存在--已經被

banned from the forum this year, reflecting the country's broader ousting from the international

今年被禁止參加該論壇，反映出該國在更大範圍內被逐出國際舞臺。

community following President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

在弗拉基米爾-普京總統入侵烏克蘭之後，社區。

Given the circumstances and the violation of the UN charter, it was impossible to have

鑑於這種情況和對聯合國憲章的違反，不可能有

Russian representatives join us in dialogue.

俄羅斯代表加入我們的對話。

There are countries where, when a representative walks into a room, other representatives walk out.

在有些國家，當一個代表走進一個房間時，其他代表就會走出來。

Yet, further along the promenade, as on the global stage, other states accused by the

然而，在更遠的長廊上，正如在全球舞臺上一樣，其他國家也受到了美國的指控。

international community of human rights abuses are well represented.

侵犯人權的國際社會有充分的代表性。

That begs the question: who decides which countries should receive a warm welcome and

這就提出了一個問題：誰來決定哪些國家應該受到熱烈歡迎和

the ones that get frozen out of the international community?

那些被凍結在國際社會之外的人？

A pariah state is typically defined as one outcast from the international community and

賤民國家通常被定義為被國際社會所拋棄的國家，並且

often subject to isolation and sanctions by nations that view its actions as unacceptable.

往往受到認為其行動不可接受的國家的孤立和制裁。

Perhaps the most widely accepted example of a pariah state is North Korea, which has been

也許最廣為接受的賤民國家的例子是北朝鮮，它一直是

largely isolated from the global stage for more than half a century.

半個多世紀以來，中國基本上被隔離在全球舞臺之外。

The country is known for behaving entirely outside of international norms, with assassinations

該國的行為完全不符合國際規範，以暗殺而聞名。

on foreign soil, missile provocations and inflammatory rhetoric among its wrongdoings.

在其錯誤行為中，包括在外國土地上進行飛彈挑釁和發表煽動性言論。

But there is no unanimous agreement or criteria for the label.

但對於這個標籤，沒有一致的協議或標準。

The term 'pariah state' has origins in Western diplomatic discourse and is used sparingly,

賤民國家 "一詞起源於西方的外交話語，並被少有地使用。

generally reserved for those nations guilty of gross human rights abuses,

一般是為那些犯有嚴重侵犯人權行為的國家保留的。

supporting international terrorism or breaking nuclear non-proliferation laws.

支持國際恐怖主義或違反核不擴散法律。

However, its application has varied over the years.

然而，多年來，它的應用是不同的。

Iran, which has a history of using hostages as a tool of statecraft, has drifted in and

伊朗有利用人質作為國家政策工具的歷史，它已經漂移到和

out of pariah status for several decades.

擺脫了數十年來的賤民地位。

Iran has been considered a pariah state, sort of, off and on.

伊朗一直被認為是一個賤民國家，有點像，斷斷續續。

There are times when Iran is more interested in engaging and interested in negotiating,

有些時候，伊朗更有興趣參與，並有興趣進行談判。

and times when Iran seems to be more threatening to other countries in the region.

以及伊朗似乎對該地區其他國家更有威脅的時候。

Oftentimes that threatening behavior gets countries to take a step back.

通常情況下，這種威脅行為會讓各國退一步。

But oftentimes then looking for a way to reengage the Iranians.

但通常情況下，然後尋找一種方法來重新接觸伊朗人。

Cuba, which has been occasionally labelled as a pariah state, was neither a state sponsor

古巴有時被稱為 "賤民國家"，但它既不是國家資助者，也不屬於 "賤民國家"。

of terrorism nor possessed weapons of mass destruction.

恐怖主義，也不擁有大規模毀滅性武器。

Other countries which have been labelled pariah states inconsistently include Afghanistan and Syria.

其他被貼上賤民國家標籤的國家包括阿富汗和敘利亞。

Then, there are nations with the label that have caused divisions among the international community.

然後，有的國家帶著這個標籤，在國際社會中造成了分裂。

In 2002, Zimbabwe was dubbed a “self-made pariah” by the U.K. over then President

2002年，辛巴維被英國稱為 "自作自受的賤民"，因為當時的總統

Robert Mugabe's land reform program, which seemingly aimed to redistribute land from

羅伯特-穆加貝的土地改革計劃，其目的似乎是重新分配土地。

minority white citizens to the majority black population.

少數白人公民與多數黑人人口的關係。

The scheme resulted in accusations of human-rights abuses, prompting the U.S. and the European Union

該計劃導致了對侵犯人權的指控，促使美國和歐盟

to sanction the country — much to the discomfort of other African leaders.

認可這個國家--這讓其他非洲領導人感到很不舒服。

Ethel Kuuya has worked as a public policy advisor across Sub-Saharan Africa, including

Ethel Kuuya曾在撒哈拉以南非洲地區擔任公共政策顧問，包括

within the Southern African Development Community.

在南部非洲發展共同體內。

There were some violations of human rights, I don't dispute that at all.

有一些侵犯人權的行為，我對此完全沒有異議。

But if we were to put that in context of other countries that have been sweeping violators

但是，如果我們把這一點放在其他國家的背景下，這些國家一直在掃蕩侵犯者

of human rights and have somehow not fallen into the 'you go and sit in the naughty

在這種情況下，我認為，我們應該在人權方面有所作為，而不是陷入 "你去坐到淘氣的地方去 "的怪圈中。

corner' type of policies that the West tends to apply, there was a choice to be very strongarmed

西方國家傾向於採用的 "角落 "類型的政策，有一種選擇是非常強硬的武裝。

around a country that had decided to dare to reclaim some of the land.

圍繞著一個決定敢於收回部分土地的國家。

Sanctions are one of the tools usually employed against pariah states to influence a desired outcome.

制裁是對準國家通常採用的工具之一，以影響預期結果。

Following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Western nations leveled sanctions against

在莫斯科入侵烏克蘭後，西方國家對其進行了制裁。

more than 8,000 Russian individuals and around 2,300 Russian entities in a bid to pressure

8,000多名俄羅斯個人和約2,300個俄羅斯實體，以圖對他們施加壓力。

Putin and choke off funds to his war chest.

普京，並掐斷了他的戰爭資金。

The U.S. alone implemented more than 2,500 sanctions against Russia up to November 2022

截至2022年11月，僅美國就對俄羅斯實施了2500多項制裁。

— more than any other country.

- 比任何其他國家都多。

The punitive measures include seizures of vessels and aircrafts owned by Russian oligarchs.

懲罰措施包括扣押俄羅斯寡頭擁有的船隻和飛機。

Neighboring Belarus was also targeted over President Alexander Lukashenko's support for Russia.

鄰國白俄羅斯也因總統亞歷山大-盧卡申科對俄羅斯的支持而成為目標。

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, leader of Belarus's opposition democratic movement, was forced

白俄羅斯反對派民主運動領導人斯維亞特拉娜-齊哈努斯卡婭（Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya）被強迫

into exile in 2020 after Lukashenko declared victory in widely disputed elections.

在盧卡申科宣佈在有廣泛爭議的選舉中獲勝後，他於2020年流亡。

Lukashenko seized the power in 2020 and he's continued repressions against Belarussian

盧卡申科在2020年奪取了政權，他繼續對白俄羅斯人進行鎮壓。

people, and he became a co-collaborant in this war.

人，他成為這場戰爭的共同參與者。

He provided our territory and infrastructure for attacking Ukraine, for launching missiles.

他為我們提供了攻擊烏克蘭、發射飛彈的領土和基礎設施。

But the effectiveness of sanctions in reforming a country's behavior remains a topic of much debate.

但是，制裁在改革一個國家的行為方面的有效性仍然是一個備受爭議的話題。

If countries don't think there's a way out of sanctions, you diminish the incentives

如果各國不認為有辦法擺脫制裁，你就會減少激勵措施

for them to comply.

讓他們遵守。

Twenty-one years down the line after sanctions, the effects of it was not on a handful of

在制裁後的21年裡，它的影響並不在少數人身上。

people, as they claimed it would affect, but it has affected an entire country.

他們聲稱會影響到人民，但它已經影響到整個國家。

In a study of 57 sanction programs between 1914 and 2000, just 21% were considered partly

在對1914年至2000年的57個制裁項目的研究中，只有21%被認為是部分的

successful, while in 65% of cases, sanctions were lifted without achieving the goal.

成功，而在65%的案例中，制裁被取消，但沒有實現目標。

Meanwhile, from 1976 to 2012, United Nations sanctions led to a 25.5% aggregate decline

同時，從1976年到2012年，聯合國的制裁導致了25.5%的累計下降。

in the gross domestic product per capita of sanctioned countries, often hurting the most

被制裁國家的人均國內生產總值下降，往往會傷害到最貧窮的國家。

vulnerable rather than those in charge.

弱勢群體，而不是那些負責人。

From a human rights perspective, the moment you put sanctions and label a state a pariah

從人權的角度來看，當你實施制裁並給一個國家貼上賤民標籤的時候

state, that turning away from that country to some extent can also provide cover for

國家，在某種程度上離開該國也可以為其提供掩護。

certain things to continue to go on that can't get examined because this country is a pariah state.

某些事情繼續下去，無法得到審查，因為這個國家是一個賤民國家。

Back in Zimbabwe, not everyone was on board with the West's isolation tactics, and in

在辛巴維，並不是所有人都贊同西方的孤立策略，而且在

2008, Russia and China, alongside South Africa, Libya and Vietnam, vetoed proposed

2008年，俄羅斯和中國與南非、利比亞和越南一起，否決了擬議的

United Nations-level sanctions.

聯合國一級的制裁。

The absence of Western engagement served to cement new alliances between Zimbabwe and

西方國家不參與的情況下，鞏固了辛巴維和美國之間的新聯盟。

the East, most notably via the government's “Look East Policy,” which promoted investment

最顯著的是通過政府的 "向東看政策"，促進了投資。

with countries like China, Singapore and Malaysia.

與中國、新加坡和馬來西亞等國家合作。

China has come in very strongly, creating manufacturing capacity on the ground in Zimbabwe,

中國已經非常強大，在辛巴維當地創造了製造能力。

as well as obviously it being an export destination for China's products.

顯然，它也是中國產品的一個出口目的地。

Countries that are so-called pariah states, they find new partners.

那些所謂的賤民國家，他們找到了新的合作伙伴。

In the wake of Russia's war, Moscow and Beijing have similarly strengthened their

在俄羅斯的戰爭之後，莫斯科和北京也同樣加強了他們的

political, economic, and military ties even as relations with the West worsened.

即使在與西方國家關係惡化的情況下，中國的政治、經濟和軍事紐帶仍在不斷髮展。

The fractured international response raises questions about the effectiveness of economic

國際社會的反應支離破碎，使人們對經濟援助的有效性產生懷疑。

and political exile in today's increasingly divided world: one in which global super

在今天這個日益分裂的世界中的政治流亡：在這個世界中，全球超級

powers are shifting, and Western dominance is less assured.

權力正在轉移，西方的主導地位不那麼可靠。

I've heard this from people: You know what, Ukraine's really far from us, this isn't our fight.

我從人們那裡聽到了這個消息。你知道嗎，烏克蘭離我們真的很遠，這不是我們的戰鬥。

And I think this is partly a reflection of Russia and China working to undermine global solidarity

我認為這部分反映了俄羅斯和中國正在努力破壞全球團結。

because of a sense that global solidarity is a cover for U.S. hegemony.

因為有一種感覺，即全球團結是美國霸權的掩護。

And by the way, whenever China's in a bilateral relationship with another country, except

順便說一下，只要中國與另一個國家有雙邊關係，除了

for the United States, it's the stronger power. That's the way they want the world to operate.

對於美國來說，它是更強大的力量。這就是他們希望世界運作的方式。

It also refocuses the debate on how much countries should engage with their adversaries

它還將辯論的重點重新放在國家應在多大程度上與他們的對手接觸上

and to what extent they should do so.

以及他們應該在多大程度上這樣做。

With that in mind, to what extent is it possible for a country to rehabilitate from pariah status?

考慮到這一點，一個國家在多大程度上有可能從賤民地位中恢復過來？

And what might it take to do so?

而要做到這一點可能需要什麼？

Russia's part of the international system and at some point it will return to the global fold.

俄羅斯是國際體系的一部分，在某些時候它將回到全球範圍內。

But certainly, Russian leaders know what they need to do to make that happen.

但當然，俄羅斯領導人知道他們需要做什麼來實現這一目標。

I ask to distinguish our country.

我要求區分我們的國家。

Lukashenko's regime, who have to be pariahs, he has to be declared a sponsor of terrorism

盧卡申科政權，他們必須成為賤民，他必須被宣佈為恐怖主義的支持者

and a war criminal.

和一個戰犯。

We have been living for 28 years under a dictatorship, so people also have to know how to communicate.

我們已經在獨裁統治下生活了28年，所以人們也必須知道如何溝通。

So, of course, I am sure that we will prevail.

是以，當然，我確信我們會取得勝利。

Historically, such turnarounds are not unheard of.

從歷史上看，這種轉機並非聞所未聞。

One example is Israel, which was completely isolated in the Middle East for decades … Sometimes

一個例子是以色列，幾十年來，它在中東地區完全被孤立......有時

it involves a regime change.

它涉及到一個政權的改變。

Iraq used to be a pariah state under Saddam Hussein and no longer is.

伊拉克在薩達姆-侯賽因統治下曾經是一個賤民國家，現在已經不是了。

Libya was an example of a country without going through regime change that got off the

利比亞是一個沒有經歷過政權更迭的國家的例子，它擺脫了 "大國 "的形象。

pariah list by behaving differently.

通過不同的行為方式，使其成為賤民名單中的一員。

Indeed, sometimes countries can be obliged to overcome moral differences in the name

的確，有時國家可能不得不以 "道德差異 "的名義來克服 "道德差異"。

of realpolitik or pragmatism.

屬於現實政治或實用主義。

In the wake of sanctions on Russian energy, the U.S., for instance, was forced to rethink

例如，在對俄羅斯能源進行制裁之後，美國被迫重新考慮

its strained ties with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela in order to secure global supplies.

其與沙特阿拉伯和委內瑞拉的緊張關係，以確保全球供應。

Often, however, the diplomatic debate can ultimately come down to a clash of Western

然而，外交辯論往往最終會歸結為西方國家的衝突。

democracies versus authoritarian regimes.

民主國家與獨裁政權的關係。

But, are there cases in which countries are too instrumental to the global economy to

但是，是否有這樣的情況，即國家對全球經濟的作用太大，以至於無法對全球經濟產生影響？

be considered pariahs?

被視為賤民？

Saudi Arabia is, in many ways, too central to the global economy to be a pariah state for long

在許多方面，沙特阿拉伯對全球經濟太重要了，不可能長期成為一個賤民國家。

As much as people consider Mohammed bin Salman to be a pariah after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi,

正如人們在賈馬爾-卡舒吉被謀殺後認為穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼是一個賤民一樣。

I think you're seeing a number of governments, including the United States, saying, well,

我認為你看到一些政府，包括美國，說，好。

he is a senior government official, and you have to engage with him in some way.

他是一名高級政府官員，你必須以某種方式與他接觸。