Why would he invade a sovereign neighboring country?

他為什麼要入侵一個主權的鄰國？

You might not care about the war in Ukraine, but the implications of this war are hitting

你可能不關心烏克蘭的戰爭，但這場戰爭的影響正在衝擊著

everyone worldwide.

全世界的每個人。

Have you seen gas prices?

你看到汽油價格了嗎？

Internet is filled with videos explaining what's going on in this conflict but most

互聯網上到處都是解釋這場衝突的視頻，但大多數

of them aren't entirely accurate.

的人並不完全準確。

They either promote their agenda or don't understand Russia and its history and how

他們要麼宣傳他們的議程，要麼不瞭解俄羅斯和它的歷史以及如何

all of that is related.

所有這些都是相關的。

My parents were born and grew up in the Soviet Union so I know a thing or two about Russia,

我的父母在蘇聯出生和長大，所以我對俄羅斯有一定的瞭解。

Ukraine, and this part of the world.

烏克蘭，以及世界的這一部分。

But here is a little disclaimer, I won't be able to cover evAt first glance, Putin seems

但這裡有一個小小的免責聲明，我將無法涵蓋所有的內容乍看之下，普京似乎

crazy waging a war in the middle of Europe.

在歐洲中部瘋狂地發動一場戰爭。

Why would he invade a sovereign neighboring country?

他為什麼要入侵一個主權的鄰國？

You might not care about the war in Ukraine, but the implications of this war are hitting

你可能不關心烏克蘭的戰爭，但這場戰爭的影響正在衝擊著

everyone worldwide.

全世界的每個人。

Have you seen gas prices?

你看到汽油價格了嗎？

Internet is filled with videos explaining what's going on in this conflict but most

互聯網上到處都是解釋這場衝突的視頻，但大多數

of them aren't entirely accurate.

的人並不完全準確。

They either promote their agenda or don't understand Russia and its history and how

他們要麼宣傳他們的議程，要麼不瞭解俄羅斯和它的歷史以及如何

all of that is related.

所有這些都是相關的。

My parents were born and grew up in the Soviet Union so I know a thing or two about Russia,

我的父母在蘇聯出生和長大，所以我對俄羅斯有一定的瞭解。

Ukraine, and this part of the world.

烏克蘭，以及世界的這一部分。

But here is a little disclaimer, I won't be able to cover everything in this short video

但這裡有一個小小的免責聲明，我不可能在這個簡短的視頻中涵蓋所有內容

but I will try my best to explain what exactly is happening?

但我將盡力解釋到底發生了什麼？

How is that impacting the world?

這對世界有什麼影響？

The stock market?

股市？

And most importantly how will that impact you!

最重要的是，這將如何影響你！？

Here is another disclaimer, I am not trying to take sides here.

這裡還有一個免責聲明，我不是要在這裡站隊。

War is bad and a tragedy no matter who is waging.

無論誰在發動戰爭，戰爭都是不好的，是一場悲劇。

Every nation has the right to determine its future.

每個國家都有權利決定自己的未來。

And conflicts should be resolved through dialogue and not rockets no matter the circumstances

而且，無論在什麼情況下，都應該通過對話而不是火箭來解決衝突。

To understand why Russia has invaded Ukraine, you have to understand Russia.

要理解俄羅斯為什麼入侵烏克蘭，你必須瞭解俄羅斯。

Technology has made our lives much easier and it seems like technology can solve all

技術使我們的生活變得更加容易，似乎技術可以解決所有的問題

problems, however, at least for now, that's not the case.

然而，至少在目前，情況並非如此。

Geography usually determines which countries are going to prosper and which ones wouldn't.

地理環境通常決定了哪些國家會繁榮，哪些國家不會。

If you want to build a prosperous country, you need the 2 most important components - Trade

如果你想建立一個繁榮的國家，你需要2個最重要的組成部分 - 貿易

and security.

和安全。

The more your country trades, the wealthier it gets, the less it trades the poorer it

你的國家貿易越多，就越富裕，貿易越少，就越貧窮。

gets.

得到。

80 percent of world trade is done through waters because it's the most affordable

80%的世界貿易是通過水路完成的，因為它是最實惠的。

option.

選擇。

That has always been the case throughout history and even today.

在整個歷史上，甚至在今天，情況都是如此。

With all the tech we have, ships are the most important method to trade, that's why access

在我們擁有的所有技術中，船舶是最重要的貿易方式，這就是為什麼訪問

to the ocean is vital to the prosperity of any nation.

對任何國家的繁榮來說，與海洋的聯繫是至關重要的。

However, trade alone is not enough, if you don't have secured borders, your neighbor

然而，僅有貿易是不夠的，如果你沒有安全的邊界，你的鄰居

can simply invade you and force you to pay taxes.

可以簡單地入侵你並強迫你交稅。

This might sound insane to some of you but that's how humanity has always been.

這對你們中的一些人來說可能聽起來很瘋狂，但這就是人類一直以來的情況。

Let's take a look at some examples.

讓我們看一下一些例子。

One of the main reasons why the UK has always been a prosperous nation is because of these

英國一直是一個繁榮的國家，其主要原因之一就是因為這些

2 reasons.

2個原因。

The UK is an island, it can easily trade with the world without the fear of someone blocking

英國是一個島國，它可以很容易地與世界進行貿易，而不必擔心有人阻撓。

its ships.

其船舶。

Secondly, invading a well-defended island is nearly impossible.

第二，入侵一個防守良好的島嶼幾乎是不可能的。

Just a disclaimer, that doesn't mean the country would never go through financial crises and

只是一個免責聲明，這並不意味著這個國家永遠不會經歷金融危機和

other problems, but that it has the foundation of growth.

其他問題，但它有增長的基礎。

Let's take another example, France.

讓我們再舉一個例子，法國。

It has access to the Mediterrane sea to trade with the rest of Europe and access to the

它可以進入地中海，與歐洲其他地區進行貿易，並可以進入歐洲其他地區。

Suez canal.

蘇伊士運河。

On the other side, it has direct access to the north Atlantic ocean to trade with the

另一方面，它有直接進入北大西洋的通道，可以與美國進行貿易。

US and the rest of the Americas.

美國和美洲其他地區。

In terms of security, it shares the Pyrenees mountains with Spain and the Alps with Italy,

在安全方面，它與西班牙共享比利牛斯山脈，與意大利共享阿爾卑斯山。

Switzerland, and part of Germany.

瑞士，以及德國的一部分。

However, with the rest of Germany and Belgium, it shares a flat border.

然而，它與德國和比利時的其他地區共享一個平坦的邊界。

That's why during WW1 and WW2, Germany occupied France - that's another example of why having

這就是為什麼在一戰和二戰期間，德國佔領了法國--這是另一個例子，說明為什麼擁有

natural borders such as Mountains is important Let's take a look at the US.

山等自然邊界很重要 讓我們看看美國的情況。

On one side, it has access to the north Atlantic ocean to trade with Europe, on the other side

一方面，它可以進入北大西洋，與歐洲進行貿易，另一方面

it has access to the north pacific ocean to trade with China and southeast asia .

它可以進入北太平洋，與中國和東南亞進行貿易。

With a population of 350 million people, it's enough to connect the country from the east

擁有3.5億人口，足以將國家從東部連接起來。

coast to the west coast.

海岸到西海岸。

On the north, it has a neighbor with a population that's 10 times smaller which poses no threat

在北部，它有一個人口比它少10倍的鄰居，不構成任何威脅。

to US and Mexico that's in constant chaos.

到美國和墨西哥，一直處於混亂狀態。

And now let's take a look at Russia where you will start understanding why Russia is

現在讓我們來看看俄羅斯，在那裡你將開始理解為什麼俄羅斯是

invading Ukraine.

入侵烏克蘭。

Russia started here which was known back then as the Kievskaya Rus with no Natural Borders

俄羅斯從這裡開始，當時被稱為沒有自然邊界的基輔羅斯。

such as Mountains or Oceans.

如山脈或海洋。

That's why Mongols easily invaded Russia for the next 300 years and forced it to pay taxes

這就是為什麼蒙古人在接下來的300年裡輕易地入侵俄羅斯，並強迫它交稅的原因

for 300 years.

300年了。

After 300 years of paying taxes to Mongols, Russia understood the importance of having

在向蒙古人交了300年的稅後，俄羅斯明白了擁有

natural borders so they expanded their empire to the Bering Sea and central Asia.

自然邊界，所以他們將自己的帝國擴展到白令海和亞洲中部。

In the south they had mountainous borders, in the north, it's just so cold that no one

在南方，他們有山區邊界，在北方，只是如此寒冷，沒有人

would dare to invade from there.

敢於從那裡入侵。

While Russia was huge, it had no access to the sea to trade with the world and it was

雖然俄羅斯很龐大，但它沒有出海口與世界進行貿易，它是

not populated.

不填充。

Even today, Russia is the largest country in the world, but its population is not even

即使在今天，俄羅斯是世界上最大的國家，但其人口甚至沒有

half of the US, that's why it was relatively poor.

美國的一半，這就是為什麼它相對貧窮。

And the country was simply too big to build the infostructure to connect it.

而這個國家太大，根本無法建立起連接它的信息結構。

The only access to the sea was here which was simply too far from Moscow.

唯一的出海口在這裡，這離莫斯科實在太遠了。

That's why Peter the great annexed this part of the land from Sweden and built a new capital

這就是為什麼彼得大帝從瑞典吞併了這部分土地，並建立了一個新的首都

- Saints Peterburg.

- 聖徒彼得堡。

Finally, Russia could trade with the world!

最後，俄羅斯可以與世界進行貿易了!

However, not everything was sunshine and rainbows.

然而，並非所有事情都是陽光和彩虹。

Russian ships had to go through Danish routes which could be blocked if Russia misbehaves,

俄羅斯船隻必須通過丹麥航線，如果俄羅斯行為不端，丹麥航線可能會被封鎖。

that's why Russia annexed Crimea from Tatars who were supported by the ottomans.

這就是為什麼俄羅斯從得到奧斯曼人支持的韃靼人那裡吞併了克里米亞。

Finally, Russia had access to the black sea and established its borders at the eastern

最後，俄羅斯獲得了進入黑海的機會，並在東部建立了自己的邊界。

Carpathian mountains.

喀爾巴阡山脈。

But then it turned into the Soviet Union and proved to the world that communism is a bad

但後來它變成了蘇聯，並向世界證明了共產主義是一個壞東西。

idea.

的想法。

When The soviet union collapsed, Russia lost a lot of its territorial gains.

蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯失去了大量的領土成果。

And this part, that Russia fought for centuries to get access to was now turned into a new

而這部分，是俄羅斯經過幾個世紀的鬥爭才獲得的，現在變成了一個新的

independent country called Ukraine.

稱為烏克蘭的獨立國家。

A strong, well-armed, independent Ukraine can cut off Russia from the black sea, and

一個強大的、武裝良好的、獨立的烏克蘭可以切斷俄羅斯與黑海的聯繫，並且

Russia will again no longer have access to the black sea, that's why controlling Ukraine

俄羅斯將再次不再有機會進入黑海，這就是控制烏克蘭的原因

is vital to the national security of Russia.

對俄羅斯的國家安全至關重要。

Russia tried to lour in Ukraine economically but it failed.

俄羅斯試圖在經濟上滋養烏克蘭，但它失敗了。

Russia is new to capitalism and it's still trying to figure out how to build a proper

俄羅斯是資本主義的新生事物，它仍在試圖弄清楚如何建立一個適當的

economy.

經濟。

Russia's economy is mostly dependent on oil and gas since they make up 60 percent

俄羅斯的經濟主要依賴於石油和天然氣，因為它們佔到了60%。

of its exports and it literally supports the rest of the economy.

的出口，它實際上支持了經濟的其他部分。

That's why Ukraine turned to the west, which it has every right to do so.

這就是為什麼烏克蘭轉向西方，它完全有權利這樣做。

However, Until 2013, Ukraine was Russia's puppet and Moscow was happy with that, but

然而，在2013年之前，烏克蘭是俄羅斯的傀儡，莫斯科對此感到滿意，但

the moment the Ukrainian government turned against Russia, the invasion of Ukraine was

在烏克蘭政府反對俄羅斯的那一刻起，對烏克蘭的入侵就開始了。

inevitable.

無可避免。

First, Russia invaded Crimea to make sure that it always has access to the black sea,

首先，俄羅斯入侵了克里米亞，以確保其始終能夠進入黑海。

no matter what happens.

無論發生什麼事。

Secondly, back in 2014, Russia was not ready to invade Ukraine so the Plan was simple.

第二，早在2014年，俄羅斯還沒有準備好入侵烏克蘭，所以該計劃很簡單。

Start a separatist war in Ukraine to divide the country and destroy its economy.

在烏克蘭發動分離主義戰爭，分裂國家，破壞其經濟。

Who would want to invest in a country where a war is taking place.

誰會想在一個正在發生戰爭的國家投資。

The invasion of Ukraine was not a matter of IF but WHEN.

入侵烏克蘭不是如果，而是什麼時候的問題。

Once Russia builds up its currency reserves and prepares its military for a full invasion,

一旦俄羅斯建立起貨幣儲備併為全面入侵做好軍事準備。

it would do it at the first opportunity.

它一有機會就會這樣做。

That's not an excuse for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

這不是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的藉口。

The invasion of any sovereign independent country is unacceptable.

對任何主權獨立國家的入侵都是不可接受的。

But now, you can at least see the conflict from the perspective of the Kremlin.

但現在，你至少可以從克里姆林宮的角度來看待這場衝突。

However, not everything is sunshine and rainbows.

然而，並非所有事情都是陽光和彩虹。

Kremlin underestimated their enemy.

克里姆林宮低估了他們的敵人。

I am not sure what's going to be the situation by the time this video is up but at the time

我不確定在這段視頻播出時情況會如何，但當時

of writing this script.

寫這個劇本的時候。

Ukraine is still standing strong.

烏克蘭仍在堅守。

The Russian economy is crippling and Russia's central bank knows that if this keeps going

俄羅斯的經濟正在癱瘓，俄羅斯的中央銀行知道，如果這種情況繼續發展下去

on for a couple of months, the Russian Ruble will collapse.

在幾個月內，俄羅斯盧布將崩潰。

While Russia makes up a small percentage of the world economy, its grip on energy is strong.

雖然俄羅斯在世界經濟中佔的比例很小，但它對能源的控制力很強。

Some European countries depend on Russian gas for over 80 percent of their energy.

一些歐洲國家80%以上的能源依賴俄羅斯的天然氣。

Which is why oil prices have skyrocketed up to 140 dollars per barrel.

這就是為什麼石油價格飆升到每桶140美元。

The problem with oil prices is that they impact the prices of everything.

油價的問題是，它影響了所有東西的價格。

The future already looked unpredictable with high inflation rates.

在高通脹率下，未來已經顯得不可預測。

If the fed doesn't ris es rates, it is going to keep the bubble growing.

如果美聯儲不提高利率，就會使保麗龍繼續增長。

However, if the fed raises rates, will that really reduce inflation with such high oil

然而，如果美聯儲加息，在如此高的油價下，是否真的能降低通脹？

prices, especially when the US & UK announced that they going to ban Russian oil.

價格，特別是當美國和英國宣佈他們將禁止俄羅斯石油。

That will further diminish the supply of oil.

這將進一步減少石油的供應。

The biggest problem is that Russia was expecting a blitzkrieg in Ukraine.

最大的問題是，俄羅斯正期待著在烏克蘭的閃電戰。

The war shouldn't have dragged for over a week.

這場戰爭不應該拖了一個多星期。

But n ow it seems like its might drag for a couple of months at least.

但現在看來，它可能至少要拖上幾個月。

The sp500 is already down by about 5 percent since the beginning of the conflict and if

自衝突開始以來，sp500指數已經下跌了約5%，如果

the fed raises rates significantly, that can further drag the stock market down.

美聯儲大幅提高利率，這可能會進一步拖累股票市場。

erything in this short video but I will try my best to explain what exactly is happening?

在這個簡短的視頻中，我將盡力解釋到底發生了什麼？

How is that impacting the world?

這對世界有什麼影響？

The stock market?

股市？

And most importantly how will that impact you!

最重要的是，這將如何影響你！？

Here is another disclaimer, I am not trying to take sides here.

這裡還有一個免責聲明，我不是要在這裡站隊。

War is bad and a tragedy no matter who is waging.

無論誰在發動戰爭，戰爭都是不好的，是一場悲劇。

Every nation has the right to determine its future.

每個國家都有權利決定自己的未來。

And conflicts should be resolved through dialogue and not rockets no matter the circumstances

而且無論在什麼情況下，都應該通過對話而不是火箭來解決衝突。

To understand why Russia has invaded Ukraine, you have to understand Russia.

要理解俄羅斯為什麼入侵烏克蘭，你必須瞭解俄羅斯。

Technology has made our lives much easier and it seems like technology can solve all

技術使我們的生活變得更加容易，似乎技術可以解決所有的問題

problems, however, at least for now, that's not the case.

然而，至少在目前，情況並非如此。

Geography usually determines which countries are going to prosper and which ones wouldn't.

地理環境通常決定了哪些國家會繁榮，哪些國家不會。

If you want to build a prosperous country, you need the 2 most important components - Trade

如果你想建立一個繁榮的國家，你需要2個最重要的組成部分 - 貿易

and security.

和安全。

The more your country trades, the wealthier it gets, the less it trades the poorer it

你的國家貿易越多，就越富裕，貿易越少，就越貧窮。

gets.

得到。

80 percent of world trade is done through waters because it's the most affordable

80%的世界貿易是通過水路完成的，因為它是最實惠的。

option.

選擇。

That has always been the case throughout history and even today.

在整個歷史上，甚至在今天，情況都是如此。

With all the tech we have, ships are the most important method to trade, that's why access

在我們擁有的所有技術中，船舶是最重要的貿易方式，這就是為什麼訪問

to the ocean is vital to the prosperity of any nation.

對任何國家的繁榮來說，與海洋的聯繫是至關重要的。

However, trade alone is not enough, if you don't have secured borders, your neighbor

然而，僅有貿易是不夠的，如果你沒有安全的邊界，你的鄰居

can simply invade you and force you to pay taxes.

可以簡單地入侵你並強迫你交稅。

This might sound insane to some of you but that's how humanity has always been.

這對你們中的一些人來說可能聽起來很瘋狂，但這就是人類一直以來的情況。

Let's take a look at some examples.

讓我們看一下一些例子。

One of the main reasons why the UK has always been a prosperous nation is because of these

英國一直是一個繁榮的國家，其主要原因之一就是因為這些

2 reasons.

2個原因。

The UK is an island, it can easily trade with the world without the fear of someone blocking

英國是一個島國，它可以很容易地與世界進行貿易，而不必擔心有人阻撓。

its ships.

其船舶。

Secondly, invading a well-defended island is nearly impossible.

第二，入侵一個防守良好的島嶼幾乎是不可能的。

Just a disclaimer, that doesn't mean the country would never go through financial crises and

只是一個免責聲明，這並不意味著這個國家永遠不會經歷金融危機和

other problems, but that it has the foundation of growth.

其他問題，但它有增長的基礎。

Let's take another example, France.

讓我們再舉一個例子，法國。

It has access to the Mediterrane sea to trade with the rest of Europe and access to the

它可以進入地中海與歐洲其他地區進行貿易，並可以進入歐洲其他地區。

Suez canal.

蘇伊士運河。

On the other side, it has direct access to the north Atlantic ocean to trade with the

另一方面，它有直接進入北大西洋的通道，可以與美國進行貿易。

US and the rest of the Americas.

美國和美洲其他地區。

In terms of security, it shares the Pyrenees mountains with Spain and the Alps with Italy,

在安全方面，它與西班牙共享比利牛斯山脈，與意大利共享阿爾卑斯山。

Switzerland, and part of Germany.

瑞士，以及德國的一部分。

However, with the rest of Germany and Belgium, it shares a flat border.

然而，它與德國和比利時的其他地區共享一個平坦的邊界。

That's why during WW1 and WW2, Germany occupied France - that's another example of why having

這就是為什麼在一戰和二戰期間，德國佔領了法國--這是另一個例子，說明為什麼擁有

natural borders such as Mountains is important Let's take a look at the US.

山等自然邊界很重要 讓我們看看美國的情況。

On one side, it has access to the north Atlantic ocean to trade with Europe, on the other side

一方面，它可以進入北大西洋，與歐洲進行貿易，另一方面

it has access to the north pacific ocean to trade with China and southeast asia .

它可以進入北太平洋，與中國和東南亞進行貿易。

With a population of 350 million people, it's enough to connect the country from the east

擁有3.5億人口，足以將國家從東部連接起來。

coast to the west coast.

海岸到西海岸。

On the north, it has a neighbor with a population that's 10 times smaller which poses no threat

在北部，它有一個人口比它少10倍的鄰居，不構成任何威脅。

to US and Mexico that's in constant chaos.

到美國和墨西哥，一直處於混亂狀態。

And now let's take a look at Russia where you will start understanding why Russia is

現在讓我們來看看俄羅斯，在那裡你將開始理解為什麼俄羅斯是

invading Ukraine.

入侵烏克蘭。

Russia started here which was known back then as the Kievskaya Rus with no Natural Borders

俄羅斯從這裡開始，當時被稱為沒有自然邊界的基輔羅斯。

such as Mountains or Oceans.

如山脈或海洋。

That's why Mongols easily invaded Russia for the next 300 years and forced it to pay taxes