When the Soviet Union collapsed when the world celebrated a triumph of capitalism over communism, the world stabilized and became ever more global with the us becoming the only superpower that set the new world order that drove prices down across the world, which kept inflation at around 1-3% for almost three decades.

當蘇聯解體時，當世界慶祝資本主義對共產主義的勝利時，世界穩定下來，變得越來越全球化，美國成為唯一的超級大國，建立了新的世界秩序，推動了全世界的價格下降，這使通貨膨脹率在近三十年內保持在1-3%左右。

In fact, in 2009, as a result of the housing bubble, we had deflation price stability, gave the businesses the confidence they need to invest in new technologies, built more effective supply chains and expand their workforce.

事實上，在2009年，由於房地產保麗龍，我們有通貨緊縮價格穩定，給了企業所需的信心，投資於新技術，建立更有效的供應鏈和擴大他們的勞動力。

However, into 2020, the world was faced with a challenge and it wasn't ready for including the US that almost topped the economic, will which led many countries to pump trillions of dollars into the economy to save it from the catastrophe that it could face on top of that.

然而，進入2020年，世界面臨著一個挑戰，它還沒有準備好，包括美國，幾乎是經濟的頂峰，將導致許多國家向經濟注入數萬億美元，以拯救它在此基礎上可能面臨的災難。

The United States global dominance was challenged by Russia which created the highest inflation in 40 years.

美國的全球主導地位受到了俄羅斯的挑戰，俄羅斯創造了40年來的最高通貨膨脹。

The consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since december 1981 surging food, gas and energy prices all contributed to the gain with fuel oil up 100 and 6% over the past year.

5月份的消費者價格指數比一年前上升了8.6%，這是自1981年12月以來的最高增幅，食品、天然氣和能源價格的飆升都促成了這一增長，燃料油在過去一年中上升了100和6%。

8.6% might not seem a lot, but it's actually catastrophic.

8.6%可能看起來不多，但實際上是災難性的。

Imagine you have saved up $100,000 over the years.

想象一下，你多年來已經積攢了10萬美元。

Even if you spend nothing out of that 100 K.

即使你在這10萬塊錢中什麼都不花。

By the end of the year, they're going to worth $92.4000.

到今年年底，它們將價值92.4000美元。

You might still see 100 K.

你可能還會看到100K。

When you check your bank account.

當你檢查你的銀行賬戶時。

But the real value is lower Now With $100,000, you might not be losing much.

但真正的價值是較低的 現在有了10萬美元，你可能不會損失很多。

But imagine investors who are sitting on a pile of cash that worth 100 million or a few billion dollars.

但想象一下，投資者坐在一堆價值1億或幾十億美元的現金上。

Imagine for a moment how much money they are losing tech apple for example, the largest company in the world, it holds more than $200 billion dollars worth of cash By the end of 2022, if inflation is going to be like 8% annually, then Apple is going to lose $16 billion $16 billion dollars is more money than some countries entire GDP.

想象一下，他們正在失去多少錢，例如，世界上最大的公司蘋果，它持有價值超過2000億美元的現金到2022年底，如果通貨膨脹將像每年8%，那麼蘋果將損失160億美元160億美元比一些國家的整個GDP還要多。

That's why the Feds top priority now is to control inflation because if investors are going to lose confidence in the dollar, that could end way worse than anything we have ever seen.

這就是為什麼美聯儲現在的首要任務是控制通貨膨脹，因為如果投資者要對美元失去信心，那結局可能比我們所見過的任何事情都要糟糕。

Just take a look at countries where people lost confidence in the currency like Venezuela.

只要看看那些人們對貨幣失去信心的國家，如委內瑞拉。

It's a nightmare that no one wants to witness.

這是一場沒有人願意看到的噩夢。

But controlling inflation isn't going to happen overnight.

但控制通貨膨脹並不是一夜之間就能實現的。

If it's going to happen by the end of the year, that will be great.

如果它將在今年年底前發生，那將是很好的。

But the main question is if inflation is so high, why acid prices are falling, why stocks plummeted so much when inflation is above 8% and when they will finally recover will answer all of these questions and many more.

但主要的問題是，如果通貨膨脹率如此之高，為什麼酸價會下降，為什麼在通貨膨脹率高於8%的情況下股票會暴跌，什麼時候最終會恢復，將回答所有這些問題和更多的問題。

But before we do that, give this video a thumbs up.

但在我們這樣做之前，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指。

And let's dive in.

讓我們潛入其中。

When you think of a business, The most important part is the cash because generating a profit is any business top priority.

當你想到一個企業，最重要的部分是現金，因為創造利潤是任何企業的首要任務。

Of course it has other responsibilities such as delivering quality products or services and taking care of its employees.

當然，它還有其他責任，如提供高質量的產品或服務，照顧好員工。

But if the business is not making money, no one wants to invest in it, which means eventually it will go bankrupt sooner or later, the company needs to put cash on the table to prove that its business model is working.

但如果企業不賺錢，就沒有人願意投資它，這意味著最終它遲早會破產，公司需要把現金放在桌子上，以證明其商業模式是可行的。

Even if that means waiting for 20 years.

即使這意味著要等上20年。

Like in the case of amazon or forever.

就像在亞馬遜或永遠的情況下。

Like in the case of Uber at this point it seems like Uber will never turn a profit.

就像在Uber的情況下，在這一點上，Uber似乎永遠不會實現盈利。

The sooner it puts cash on the table, the better because a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

它越早把現金放在桌子上越好，因為今天的一美元比明天的一美元更有價值。

If I would come out with two business ideas, the firm, This one let's say will generate $5 million $10 million $10 million $10 million dollars today, you can invest it and earn interest for example or reinvested back in your company and maximize your profit.

如果我有兩個商業想法，這個公司，比方說今天會產生500萬美元，1000萬美元，1000萬美元，你可以投資它，賺取利息，或重新投資回你的公司，使你的利潤最大化。

There are a gazillion number of things you can do with that $10 million $10 million $10 million dollars is worth today.

你可以用這1000萬美元做很多事情，1000萬美元今天的價值。

There is a pretty simple formula for that called DCF discounted cash flow.

這方面有一個非常簡單的公式，叫做DCF現金流折現。

The formula is one, divided by one plus the discounted rate to the power of the period where n.

這個公式是1，除以1，再加上折算率的冪數，其中n。

Is the year.

是年。

For the sake of simplification, let's say that the interest rate is 5% which will be our discounted rate for the sake Of simplification.

為了簡化起見，我們假設利率為5%，為了簡化起見，這將是我們的貼現率。

Again, let's divide $10 million company B will earn $2 million $2 million 12 months from now is worth just $1.9 million.

同樣，讓我們劃分1000萬美元的公司B將獲得200萬美元200萬美元12個月後的價值僅為190萬美元。

The next $2 million.

下一個200萬美元。

Two years from now will worth 1.8 million.

兩年後將價值180萬。

The third one point 7/4 1.64 finally the fifth year is going to be 1.56.

第三個點7/4 1.64最後第五年是要1.56。

All in millions.

都是以百萬計。

By the way, if we add them up, we will have a total value of approximately $8.6 million.

順便說一下，如果我們把它們加起來，我們的總價值將達到約860萬美元。

So Company B might earn 10 million dollars.

所以B公司可能會賺到1000萬美元。

But because it's five years from now, it is real worth is just $8.6 million.

但由於是五年後，它的實際價值只有860萬美元。

So when the Fed raises rates, what happens to the discounted rate it rises which makes future cash flow less valuable than today, which pushes stock prices to plummet especially tech stocks that often focused on making a lot of money in the future.

是以，當美聯儲加息時，貼現率會發生什麼，它上升了，這使得未來的現金流不如今天有價值，這推動了股票價格暴跌，特別是那些經常專注於在未來賺大錢的科技股。

After gaining market share than now, Let's take the example of Tesla.

在獲得比現在更多的市場份額後，讓我們以特斯拉為例。

Tesla is a great company.

特斯拉是一個偉大的公司。

It builds great cars, it's revolutionizing the industry.

它建造了偉大的汽車，它正在徹底改變這個行業。

It's led by a charismatic ceo but the company is burning cash, it's a money wasting machine.

該公司由一位富有魅力的首席執行官上司，但該公司正在燃燒現金，它是一臺浪費金錢的機器。

But investors are not worried because the promise behind Tesla is that once the company builds its infrastructure, it is going to make a lot of money in the future.

但投資者並不擔心，因為特斯拉背後的承諾是，一旦公司建立起基礎設施，未來就會賺大錢。

Once it takes over the entire market, it will worth trillions of dollars.

一旦它佔領了整個市場，它的價值將達到數萬億美元。

The keyword is the future, but when the Fed raises the rates, the real value of the NPV of that, a lot of money in the future drops, making the company less valuable and leading the price of the stock to drop.

關鍵詞是未來，但當美聯儲提高利率時，那的淨現值的實際價值，未來的大量資金就會下降，使公司的價值降低，導致股票價格下跌。

If you google any stock you will find out down below the chart companies p ratio which measures how much investors are willing to pay relative to how much its earnings per share.

如果你用谷歌搜索任何股票，你會發現圖表下面的公司P比率，衡量投資者願意支付多少錢，相對於其每股收益多少。

If the Fed raises the race, future earnings suddenly become less valuable which lowers its P.

如果美聯儲提高比賽，未來的收益突然變得不那麼有價值，從而降低了它的P。

E.

E.

Ratio and push the price of the stock to drop.

比率，並推動股票價格下跌。

However, not all stocks suffered when the Fed raised the rates because the discounted cash flow rate doesn't just take into consideration the interest rate, but other factors that could influence the future cash flow such as inflation rate high, how easy it is for the company to get that cash, the opportunity cost, and so on.

然而，並不是所有的股票在美聯儲加息時都受到影響，因為現金流折現率不僅僅考慮利率，還有其他可能影響未來現金流的因素，如通貨膨脹率高，公司獲得這些現金有多容易，機會成本，等等。

All these factors increase the discounted cash flow rate, which means the future cash flow will be less valuable.

所有這些因素都增加了現金流折現率，這意味著未來現金流的價值會降低。

So if inflation rises, stocks plummets, except for those who are making money now, just oil companies, especially when oil prices have risen so much lately, there is no one metric to analyze talks.

所以，如果通貨膨脹上升，股票就會暴跌，除了現在賺錢的人，就是石油公司，特別是最近油價漲得很厲害，沒有一個指標來分析會談。

You have to look at other analysis that just finding its price to earnings ratio, price free cash flow or price to book ratio.

你必須看看其他的分析，只是找到它的價格與收益比率，價格與自由現金流或價格與賬面比率。

None of these factories can tell you for sure how the stock will perform in the future, since there's so many factors that influences the price of the stock that the stock can fail even if everything looks perfect.

這些工廠都不能肯定地告訴你股票在未來的表現，因為影響股票價格的因素太多，即使一切看起來很完美，股票也可能失敗。

But the main rule of investing is sooner or later, the stock will rise or fall back to its true value.

但投資的主要規則是，股票遲早會上漲或下跌，回到其真實價值。

So the challenge is to find undervalued stocks since in the long run they will rise back.

是以，挑戰在於找到被低估的股票，因為從長遠來看，它們會回升。

That's it for today.

今天就到此為止。

Thanks for watching and see you in the next one.

謝謝你的觀看，下一集見。