The Kremlin was preparing for this war since 2006.

克里姆林宮從2006年起就在為這場戰爭做準備。

Hundreds of billions of dollars were spent on modernizing the Russian military, stabilizing

數以千億計的美元被用於實現俄羅斯軍隊的現代化，穩定局勢。

the economy and expanding Russia's influence all over the world.

經濟和擴大俄羅斯在全世界的影響力。

The only thing that was left was for Putin was to give the order to attack and wait for

留給普京的唯一事情就是下達進攻的命令，並等待著

the good news.

好消息。

The next Day Putin Arrives at Kiev, gives a victory speech and Russia checkmates the

第二天，普京抵達基輔，發表了勝利演說，而俄羅斯也戰勝了對手。

west before they even realize what just happen.

在他們甚至意識到剛剛發生的事情之前，就已經向西走了。

But something went wrong!

但有些事情出了差錯!

In fact, a lot of things went wrong!

事實上，很多事情都出了差錯!

Ukraine aimed at winning the information war by controlling the storyline, used US intelligence

烏克蘭旨在通過控制故事情節贏得信息戰，利用美國的情報部門

to prevent Russia from taking over Kiev and pushed the entire world to cut ties with Russia,

以防止俄羅斯接管基輔，並推動整個世界與俄羅斯斷絕關係。

and it worked.

而且還成功了。

Companies literally started leaving Russia.

公司實際上開始離開俄羅斯。

BMW stops making cars in Russia.

寶馬停止在俄羅斯生產汽車。

Ikea sold its factories and left the country.

宜家賣掉了它的工廠，離開了這個國家。

Google, IBM, Airbnb, Netflix, PayPal, Samsung, Starbucks, Visa, Mastercard, Coco cola all

谷歌、IBM、Airbnb、Netflix、PayPal、三星、星巴克、Visa、Mastercard、Coco cola都是如此。

left Russia overnight.

一夜之間離開了俄羅斯。

Russian banks were thrown away from the international financial system and you could no longer send

俄羅斯銀行被拋出國際金融體系，你不能再發送

money to Russia or from Russia.

向俄羅斯或來自俄羅斯的資金。

Experts predicted that Russia's economy will collapse.

專家預測，俄羅斯的經濟將崩潰。

That's worse than a depression, leave alone a recession.

這比大蕭條還糟糕，更不用說衰退了。

United states launched a series of financial attacks on the ruble.

美國對盧布發起了一系列的金融攻擊。

Ruble lost half of its value and jumped from 70 rubles per dollars to 140 rubles per dollar.

盧布損失了一半的價值，從每美元70盧布跳到每美元140盧布。

Overnight as if the entire world declared a war against Russia and everyone predicted

一夜之間，彷彿整個世界對俄羅斯宣戰，每個人都預測到了

that Russia will collapse in a matter of a few months.

俄羅斯將在幾個月內崩潰。

So the question is - what is the state of Russia's economy now?

所以問題是--俄羅斯的經濟現在是什麼狀況？

Why Russia hasn't collapsed yet? and how long can it stand the western sanctions before

為什麼俄羅斯還沒有崩潰？ 在西方的制裁面前，它能忍受多久？

Russia as a state collapses and turns into many small puppet states?

俄羅斯作為一個國家崩潰了，變成了許多小的傀儡國家？

How Russian Protected It's Currency United State's first objective was to crush

俄羅斯如何保護它的貨幣 美國的第一個目標是粉碎

the Russian currency, because if you crash the currency, it will create a chaos in the

俄羅斯的貨幣，因為如果你崩潰的貨幣，它將造成一個混亂的局面。

economy and will crash everything else like a domino effect.

經濟，並將像多米諾骨牌效應一樣使其他一切都崩潰。

US restricted Russian government from acquiring foreign currency, pressured US companies to

美國限制俄羅斯政府購買外匯，對美國公司施壓

leave the country and the entire world wanted to sell everything they had inside the country

離開這個國家，整個世界都想賣掉他們在國內的所有東西

and leave which means, selling all of their Russian rubles and buying dollars.

並離開，這意味著，賣掉他們所有的俄羅斯盧布併購買美元。

The Russian ruble began trading at half of its price.

俄羅斯盧布開始以其價格的一半進行交易。

The way currencies usually work is that, supply and demand determine the price.

貨幣通常的運作方式是，供求關係決定價格。

If people suddenly start selling their rubles, it will start declining and at some point

如果人們突然開始出售他們的盧布，它將開始下降，並在某些時候

people can lose faith in the currency and it will turn into hyperinflation as it was

人們可能對貨幣失去信心，它將變成惡性通貨膨脹，因為它是

the case with Germany after world war 1 or Zimbabwe in 2006.

第一次世界大戰後的德國或2006年的辛巴維就是如此。

However, that did not happen to Russia because thats exactly what US did back in 2014 when

然而，這並沒有發生在俄羅斯身上，因為這正是美國在2014年所做的事情，當時

Russia annexed Crimea, so this time Russia was ready.

俄羅斯吞併了克里米亞，所以這一次俄羅斯準備好了。

It saved up over 630 billion dollars in foreign reserves that if everyone starts selling rubles,

它積攢了超過6300億美元的外匯存底，如果每個人都開始出售盧布。

the Russian central bank can step in and artificially create enough demand for the ruble that it

俄羅斯中央銀行可以介入並人為地創造足夠的盧布需求，從而使其

won't collapse.

不會崩潰。

And since all western companies began leaving Russia one by one and Russia was restricted

由於所有的西方公司開始一個接一個地離開俄羅斯，俄羅斯被限制了

from the global financial system, Russia took countermeasures and restricted foreign speculators

在全球金融體系中，俄羅斯採取了反措施，並限制外國投機者。

from shorting or trading the Russian ruble.

從做空或交易俄羅斯盧布。

Russia also restricted foreign currency inside the country.

俄羅斯還限制國內的外幣。

First of all, you could no longer withdraw US dollars or Euros from ATMs.

首先，你不能再從ATM機上提取美元或歐元。

You could no longer send them outside Russia since Russia was kicked out of SWIFT, and

由於俄羅斯被踢出了SWIFT，你不能再向俄羅斯以外的地方匯款，而且

you couldn't even keep them in your bank account since Russian banks imposed a 12 percent fee

你甚至不能把它們放在你的銀行賬戶裡，因為俄羅斯銀行徵收12%的費用

for keeping foreign currency in your account.

為在你的賬戶中保留外幣。

So, everyone had to sell their dollars and euros if they wanted to preserve their money

是以，每個人都不得不賣掉他們的美元和歐元，如果他們想保存他們的錢的話

which created an a huge demand for the Ruble.

這造成了對盧布的巨大需求。

Whatever foreign currency that businesses inside Russia would receive would automatically

俄羅斯境內的企業無論收到多少外匯都會自動

be exchanged to ruble, at least 80 percent of them which boosted the demand for Russian

其中至少80%被兌換成了盧布，這促進了對俄羅斯的需求。

rubles which made the Russian ruble the best performing currency in the world.

盧布，使俄羅斯盧布成為世界上表現最好的貨幣。

That's how Russia saved its currency!

這就是俄羅斯拯救其貨幣的方式！。

- Russia is turning into a landlocked country But that was just the beginning because the

- 俄羅斯正在變成一個內陸國家 但這只是一個開始，因為

worse was yet to come!

更糟糕的事情還在後頭呢!

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is about to make Russia a land-lock country.

俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵，即將使俄羅斯成為一個內陸國家。

Wait a second.

等一下。

Isn't Russia the largest country in the word?

俄羅斯不是這個世界上最大的國家嗎？

Doesn't Russia has the largest access to the oceans?

俄羅斯不是擁有最大的海洋通道嗎？

Well, that's both yes and no.

嗯，這既是肯定的，也是否定的。

Russia's geography is both its strength and weakness.

俄羅斯的地理環境既是其優勢也是其弱點。

Almost all of Russia's population is located in the western side of the country.

俄羅斯幾乎所有的人口都位於該國的西部。

So its ports in the East at Vladivostok are worthless since Vladivostok is an 9 hour flight

所以它在東方的海參崴的港口是沒有價值的，因為海參崴是一個9小時的飛行。

from Moscow.

來自莫斯科。

So, delivering everything from Vladivostok to Western Side of Russia is a nightmare.

是以，從符拉迪沃斯託克向俄羅斯西部地區運送一切是一場噩夢。

In fact, the entire region is underdeveloped.

事實上，整個地區都是不發達的。

It doesnt even have a proper infrastructure.

它甚至沒有一個適當的基礎設施。

In the north, the situation isn't any better.

在北方，情況也沒有好到哪裡去。

Its freezing for most of the year and ships can't go through and there aren't any

一年中的大部分時間都是冰天雪地，船隻無法通過，而且沒有任何

major cities because the cold wether just makes it unbearable to live there.

主要城市，因為寒冷的天氣讓人無法忍受，在那裡生活。

That's why Peter the great waged a war against the Swedish empire to annex Saint Petersburg

這就是為什麼彼得大帝要對瑞典帝國發動戰爭，以吞併聖彼得堡。

and instantly made it the new capital of Russia.

並立即使其成為俄羅斯的新首都。

This new city had access to the Baltic sea and Russia finally could trade with Europe.

這座新城市有了通往波羅的海的通道，俄羅斯終於可以與歐洲進行貿易。

But Russia was still at the mercy of Sweden since it could easily block Russian ships

但俄羅斯仍受瑞典的擺佈，因為它可以輕易地阻擋俄羅斯的船隻。

when crossing the Danish route.

在穿越丹麥路線時。

Its for this exact reason, Russia has always kept a good relationship with Sweden.

正是由於這個原因，俄羅斯一直與瑞典保持著良好的關係。

But as wise man one said: never put all of your eggs in one basket!

但正如智者所言：永遠不要把所有的雞蛋放在一個籃子裡!

Thats why Russia began looking for alternative ways to trade with the world.

這就是為什麼俄羅斯開始尋找與世界貿易的替代方式。

The only option that was left was by crossing the Bosphorus strait to access the Mediterranean

剩下的唯一選擇是穿越博斯普魯斯海峽，進入地中海。

sea but that it was controlled by the ottoman empire, that's why the Russian empire was

但它是由奧斯曼帝國控制的，這就是為什麼俄羅斯帝國是

in a constant war with the Ottomans.

在與奧斯曼人的不斷戰爭中。

Fast forward to 2022, its controlled by Turkey which is a NATO member.

快進到2022年，它被土耳其控制，而土耳其是北約成員。

Which mea ns that Sweden joining Nato literally makes Russia dependent on NATO to have access

這意味著，瑞典加入北約，實際上是讓俄羅斯依賴北約來獲得准入。

to the oceans!

向海洋致敬!

NATO can now block Russian ships which will significantly limit Russia's trades which

北約現在可以阻擋俄羅斯的船隻，這將大大限制俄羅斯的貿易，而俄羅斯的貿易也將受到影響。

can cripple the Russian economy.

可以使俄羅斯經濟癱瘓。

And if Ukraine wins this war, Russia will have to give up Crimea which will limit Russia's

而如果烏克蘭贏得這場戰爭，俄羅斯將不得不放棄克里米亞，這將限制俄羅斯的

power in the Black sea making the largest country in the world LANDLOCKED.

在黑海的權力，使世界上最大的國家被鎖定在土地上。

- China and India won't replace Europe But that's not even the biggest problem.

- 中國和印度不會取代歐洲 但這還不是最大的問題。

Russia's entire economy is about supplying Europe with raw materials such as oil, gas,

俄羅斯的整個經濟就是為歐洲提供石油、天然氣等原材料。

wood and everything else that western Europe needs to keep their industries running.

木材和西歐維持其工業運行所需的其他一切。

Without affordable gas, German factories for example won't survive.

沒有負擔得起的天然氣，例如，德國的工廠就無法生存。

Prior to the February 2022, almost half of Europe's entire gas supplies were coming

在2022年2月之前，歐洲的全部天然氣供應幾乎有一半來自於

from Russia.

來自俄羅斯。

Russia spent dozens of billions of dollars building these pipelines and now Russia has

俄羅斯花了幾百億美元建造這些管道，現在俄羅斯已經

stopped supplying Europe with gas to pressure Europe to turn against Ukraine, however it

停止向歐洲供應天然氣，以迫使歐洲反對烏克蘭，但它

had failed miserably.

慘遭失敗。

Europe is now spending billions of dollars to diversify its energy sources and signed

歐洲現在正花費數十億美元使其能源來源多樣化，並簽署了

multi billion dollar deals with other gas exporting countries such as Qatar, which means

與卡達等其他天然氣出口國的數十億美元交易，這意味著

that, even if the war stops, regardless of who wins the war, Russia will no longer be

即使戰爭停止，無論誰贏得戰爭，俄羅斯將不再是

able to sell its oil and gas to Europe as it did in the past which will significantly

能夠像過去那樣向歐洲出售其石油和天然氣，這將大大增加

reduce its budget.

削減其預算。

Of course its trying to sell its oil and gas to China and India.

當然，它試圖將其石油和天然氣賣給中國和印度。

The truth is that, they will not replace Europe for 2 reasons.

事實是，他們不會取代歐洲，原因有二。

First of all, China and India don't pay the premium that Europe use to pay for the

首先，中國和印度不支付歐洲過去為其支付的溢價。

Russian gas.

俄羅斯天然氣。

Secondly, Russia doesnt have the resources to build so many pipelines again to China

第二，俄羅斯沒有資源再為中國建造這麼多管道。

that it had spent decades building them to Europe.

它花了幾十年的時間把它們造到了歐洲。

So no matter how the war in Ukraine ends, Russia's economy is Doomed.

是以，無論烏克蘭的戰爭如何結束，俄羅斯的經濟都是註定的。

Even if Russia annexes the entire Ukraine, it will have an entirely damaged country that

即使俄羅斯吞併了整個烏克蘭，它也將擁有一個完全被破壞的國家，即

needs rebuilding and as you have guessed, this war has squeezed all Russia's resources

需要重建，正如你所猜測的，這場戰爭壓榨了俄羅斯的所有資源。

which means a period of political and financial instability is waiting for Russia regardless

這意味著無論如何都會有一段政治和金融不穩定的時期在等待著俄羅斯。

of how the conflict ends.

的衝突如何結束。

Russia's entire economy is dependent on high tech imports.

俄羅斯的整個經濟都依賴於高科技的進口。

It can't manufacture cars without western equipments, it can't build planes, it cant

沒有西方的設備，它不能製造汽車，它不能製造飛機，它不能

produce smartphones or computer chips, it can't build civilian planes.

生產智能手機或計算機芯片，它不能建造民用飛機。

Russia is just becoming more and more dependent on China since it has no other option.

俄羅斯只是越來越依賴中國，因為它沒有其他選擇。

China is buying its oil to fill the government's budget and replacing everything else that

中國正在購買其石油以填補政府的預算，並取代其他所有的東西。

Russia now can't acquire from the west.

俄羅斯現在無法從西方獲得。

It's turning Russia into becoming China's puppet.

它正在把俄羅斯變成中國的傀儡。

And most importantly it lost its image as the second most powerful military.

而最重要的是，它失去了作為第二大軍事力量的形象。

Russia might have never been the second most powerful military but it successfully projected

俄羅斯可能從未成為第二大軍事強國，但它成功地預測了

itself as if it was capable of competing with the US military.

它自己彷彿有能力與美國軍隊競爭。

However United State's much superior weapons pushed many countries to dump Russian weapons

然而，美國優越得多的武器促使許多國家拋棄俄羅斯的武器。

and start purchasing US made weapons.

並開始購買美國製造的武器。

This War will most likely leave Russia with a crippled economy that needs decades and

這場戰爭很可能會使俄羅斯的經濟陷入癱瘓，需要幾十年的時間和精力。

trillions of dollars to bring it back to the pre-war condition, putting and end to Russia's

數萬億美元來使其恢復到戰前狀態，結束俄羅斯的

ambitious to ever become a global superpower.

有志於成為一個全球超級大國。

Thanks for watching and see you in the next one.

謝謝你的觀看，下一集見。