China started military maneuvers around Taiwan threatening to invade the island.

中國開始在臺灣周圍進行軍事演習，威脅要入侵該島。

In response, Taiwan started military exercises to demonstrate that it could withstand the chinese invasion with the help of the United States.

作為迴應，臺灣開始進行軍事演習，以證明它可以在美國的幫助下抵禦中國的入侵。

The news shocked investors because if anything like that happens it will be catastrophic to the world economy.

這一消息令投資者感到震驚，因為如果發生這樣的事情，將對世界經濟造成災難性的影響。

The Taiwanese straight and the Taiwan itself an essential part of the global economy producing chips that are used in literally every technology you can think about from smart phones to computers to cars, live alone medical equipment.

臺灣直線和臺灣本身是全球經濟的重要組成部分，生產的芯片被用於你能想到的每一種技術，從智能手機到電腦到汽車，更不用說醫療設備。

Despite its small G.

儘管它的小G。

D.

D.

P.

P.

An invasion of Taiwan will create more inflation and more global instability and more disruption of global supply chains.

對臺灣的入侵將造成更多的通貨膨脹和更多的全球不穩定，以及對全球供應鏈的更大破壞。

When Taiwan showed a chinese drawn I think the world thought that china would definitely invade Taiwan.

當臺灣顯示出中國人的畫像時，我想全世界都認為中國肯定會入侵臺灣。

But thankfully it did not happen.

但值得慶幸的是，這並沒有發生。

If you look at the numbers, a chinese invasion of chai wan is practically impossible now since china is on the brink of an economic catastrophe.

如果你看一下數字，現在中國對柴灣的入侵幾乎是不可能的，因為中國正處於經濟災難的邊緣。

We have already explained the crisis in the previous video but that's just one part of the story.

我們已經在之前的視頻中解釋了危機，但這只是故事的一部分。

The crisis that's about to unfold in china is far worse than many of you think sometimes politicians choose to go toward to solve their problems.

即將在中國展開的危機比你們中的許多人想象的要嚴重得多，有時政治家會選擇向解決他們的問題。

But let's hope that's not going to be the case this time we can't even solve the current inflation.

但我們希望這次不會是這樣，我們甚至不能解決目前的通貨膨脹問題。

We have.

我們有。

I can't even imagine what would happen if the world factory were sanctioned like Russia.

我甚至無法想象如果世界工廠像俄羅斯一樣被制裁會發生什麼。

That is true that companies are slowly shifting from china but that's not going to happen overnight.

公司正在慢慢地從中國轉移，這是事實，但這不會在一夜之間發生。

It is going to take years.

這將需要數年時間。

Other countries still don't have the infrastructure that china has making production easy, smooth and affordable.

其他國家仍然沒有像中國這樣的基礎設施，使生產容易、順利和負擔得起。

The economy is like a wheel.

經濟就像一個輪子。

It takes a lot of effort to roll it, but when it's rolling it's much easier to keep rolling it.

滾動它需要很大的努力，但當它滾動時，繼續滾動就容易多了。

When I drive a car, it takes far more energy to speed up than to keep the current speed.

當我駕駛汽車時，加速所需的能量遠遠大於保持當前速度。

Once you're on a highway, driving 100 kilometers an hour is much more energy efficient than going from 0 to 100 and chinese Communist Party's recent actions since Covid hit the world have put the spinning wheel in danger of stopping zero.

一旦你上了高速公路，每小時行駛100公里比從0到100要節能得多，而中國共產黨自科維德襲擊世界以來最近的行動使旋轉的車輪面臨著停零的危險。

Covid policy is great but a factories can keep functioning then companies will have to shift their manufacturing since they can't survive unless they keep the revenue coming.

Covid政策是偉大的，但工廠可以繼續運作，那麼公司將不得不轉移他們的製造業，因為他們無法生存，除非他們保持收入的到來。

The age where they could easily afford to borrow free money is over now is the time to either bring in the cash or suffer.

他們可以輕鬆地借到免費資金的時代已經過去了，現在是要麼帶來現金，要麼受苦的時候。

The consequences.

其後果是。

Were already seeing news about how businesses are cutting jobs as much as they can since the storm seems to last much longer than many expected.

我們已經看到關於企業如何儘可能地裁員的新聞，因為風暴似乎比許多人預期的要持續得多。

Most businesses expected that the Covid era was going to be the tough times.

大多數企業預計，科維德時代將是艱難時期。

But it turns out that the Covid era was the good times.

但事實證明，科維德時代是好時光。

The real crisis started beginning of this year and we have no clue when it's going to end.

真正的危機從今年年初開始，我們不知道它何時會結束。

Even the fact the world's most powerful financial organization is blind and can figure out where the economy will be in six or 12 months from now.

甚至世界上最強大的金融組織也是盲目的，可以算出6或12個月後的經濟狀況。

So, any predictions we make are nothing but just a perception of where things could be based on the factors on the ground now, China makes almost 19% of the global GDP.

是以，我們所做的任何預測都不過是基於現在實地的因素對事情可能發生的情況的看法。

Whatever happens to its economy will impact the rest of the world.

無論其經濟發生什麼，都會影響到世界其他地區。

When you look at each crisis individually in china, nothing catastrophic is about to happen.

當你單獨看待中國的每一場危機時，沒有什麼災難性的事情即將發生。

I mean, a mortgage crisis, a banking crisis, an outflow of companies for geopolitical reasons, a temporary shutdown of many factories due to zero covid policy, you start noticing how these crisis is altogether do impose a series challenge to the economy.

我的意思是，抵押貸款危機，銀行危機，由於地緣政治原因的公司外流，由於零關稅政策導致許多工廠暫時關閉，你開始注意到這些危機是如何完全對經濟造成一系列挑戰的。

On top of that, if we take into account that since she Jinping came to power, china has begun isolating itself from the rest of the world, which almost imposes a threat to its economy.

除此之外，如果我們考慮到自她上臺以來，中國已經開始與世界其他國家隔離，這幾乎對其經濟造成了威脅。

You see, china's economy grew when it opened itself to the world and open economic zones that made it profitable for global corporations to set up factories there, these economic zones have turned into some of the wealthiest cities in the world, such as Shenzhen.

你看，中國的經濟增長是在它向世界開放的時候，開放經濟區，使全球公司在那裡設廠有利可圖，這些經濟區已經變成了世界上最富有的一些城市，如深圳。

There is a social contract between chinese Communist Party and the chinese people.

中國共產黨和中國人民之間存在著一種社會契約。

No one challenges the power of the CCP.

沒有人挑戰中共的權力。

In return, the CCP will keep growing the economy if CCP does not keep its part of the bargain china might start facing political instability.

作為回報，中國共產黨將保持經濟增長，如果中國共產黨不遵守它的部分協議，中國可能會開始面臨政治不穩定。

There already videos on the internet where people are protesting in the streets demanding their money back from the banks that can't afford to let people withdraw their savings or demanding their apartments to finally be built.

互聯網上已經有一些視頻，人們在街上抗議，要求從不能讓人們提取存款的銀行拿回他們的錢，或者要求他們的公寓最終被建造。

But developers can finish the projects since they don't have the funds and are full of debt.

但是開發商可以完成這些項目，因為他們沒有資金，而且充滿了債務。

Of course these are just small minorities.

當然，這些只是少數人。

But with the way things going on now the discontent will keep rising at some point there is going to be a turning point.

但隨著現在事情的發展，不滿情緒會不斷上升，在某些時候會有一個轉捩點。

Everything can fall like a domino effect.

一切都會像多米諾骨牌效應一樣倒下。

If you look at the numbers, growth has steadily been declining in China after hitting 14.2% of GDP growth in 2007, things haven't recovered since then, every consecutive quarter year has been followed by a lower GDP growth, especially since the United States started a trade war with China when Trump was elected president GDP growth fell to under 6%, the lowest since 1990.

如果你看一下數字，中國的增長在2007年創下14.2%的GDP增長後一直在穩步下降，此後情況沒有恢復，每一個連續的季度年都是GDP增長降低，特別是美國在特朗普當選總統時與中國展開貿易戰後GDP增長下降到6%以下，是1990年以來的最低值。

And if it wasn't enough, COVID has significantly slowed down growth.

如果這還不夠，COVID已經明顯放緩了增長速度。

The figures, of course for 2021 are high.

當然，2021年的數字是很高的。

But that's because the economy was recovering from the crisis.

但那是因為經濟正在從危機中恢復。

The chinese government perfectly understands the dangers and it's taking measures.

中國政府完全瞭解這些危險，並且正在採取措施。

First, the chinese central bank lowered the rate of the one year, medium term lending facility loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points.

首先，中國央行將一些金融機構的一年期中期借貸便利貸款的利率降低了10個基點。

Then the people's Bank of china carried five year loan.

然後，中國人民銀行提供了五年的貸款。

Prime rate by 15 basis points to four, 4.3% from 4.45% and lower its one year loan.

最優惠利率降低15個基點，從4.45%降至4.3%，並降低其一年期貸款。

Prime rate by five basis points to 365, the rate, cut an extra money for lending a small compared with China's $17 trillion dollar economy, the world's second largest, but the ruling party is afraid to take any aggressive measures that could hurt the economy.

最優惠利率下調五個基點至365，該利率，與中國17萬億美元的經濟、世界第二大經濟體相比，削減了一個額外的貸款資金小，但執政黨不敢採取任何可能傷害經濟的激進措施。

So they are super careful not to worsen the crisis.

所以他們超級小心，不想讓危機惡化。

Economists are saying that china should be more aggressive in its actions, but aggressive actions sometimes lead to devastating consequences as we have seen in the US and europe in the last two years.

經濟學家們說，中國應該在行動上更加積極，但積極的行動有時會導致破壞性的後果，正如我們在過去兩年在美國和歐洲看到的那樣。

Countries that blindly distributed cache and now suffering from the highest inflation in four decades, China's real estate market is already in a bubble.

盲目分配緩存的國家，現在遭受四十年來最高的通貨膨脹，中國的房地產市場已經處於保麗龍狀態。

We're not going to get into details as we have explored previously.

我們不打算討論細節問題，因為我們之前已經探討過了。

But in short for the last three decades, china's developers have kept taking loans to keep building apartment blocks.

但總之，在過去三十年裡，中國的開發商一直在貸款，以繼續建造公寓樓。

Since there aren't many investing tools, people in china kept storing their wealth in apartments as a place to protect their wealth.

由於沒有太多的投資工具，中國的人們一直把他們的財富儲存在公寓裡，作為保護他們財富的地方。

The astronomical demand led to dozens of thousands of empty homes that have turned into a bubble in order to cool down the bubble.

天文數字般的需求導致了數以萬計的空屋，為了給保麗龍降溫，空屋變成了保麗龍。

The central banks often raise the rates or cut public spending.

中央銀行經常提高利率或削減公共開支。

But the current slowdown in the economy is pushing the government to take opposite measures and cut the rates that will only keep inflating the bubble, which will make the future crush even worse.

但目前經濟的放緩正在推動政府採取相反的措施，削減利率，這隻會使保麗龍不斷膨脹，這將使未來的擠壓更加嚴重。

The real challenge is if the economy slows down 65 million homes or one in five homes in china are empty.

真正的挑戰是，如果經濟放緩，中國有6500萬套住房或五分之一的住房是空的。

If the situation gets worse, people will look to sell their homes to pay their bills if they can't even rent them out.

如果情況變得更糟，人們將尋求出售他們的房子來支付賬單，如果他們甚至不能把房子租出去。

Wasn't that the initial purpose of their investment when enough homes are listed in the market?

當市場上有足夠多的房屋上市時，這不就是他們投資的最初目的嗎？

That's when the panic will start, when prices will start going down, the developers will definitely go out of business.

這時，恐慌就會開始，價格就會開始下降，開發商肯定會倒閉。

Many developers like Evergrande already collapsed.

許多像恆大這樣的開發商已經倒閉了。

If something like that happens, the rest will follow soon, it is really difficult to stop a collapse in the housing prices.

如果發生這樣的事情，其他的也會很快跟著發生，真的很難阻止房價的崩潰。

The US went through something like that in 2008, it had to keep the rates high enough for several years.

美國在2008年經歷了類似的事情，它必須在幾年內保持足夠高的利率。

I'm not sure if the CCP can afford that Despite its $18 trillion China is still a developing country, it's not even close to the United States, almost $70,000 GDP per capita.

我不確定中國共產黨是否能負擔得起 儘管中國有18萬億美元，但它仍然是一個開發中國家，它甚至沒有接近美國，人均GDP幾乎為7萬美元。

The real question is if the real estate shape the growth for the last three decades, what will feel the growth for the next decade?

真正的問題是，如果房地產塑造了過去三十年的增長，那麼未來十年的增長會是什麼感覺？

China is heavily investing in africa trying to make what china was for the United States and the future destination for its exports.

中國正在對非洲進行大量投資，試圖使中國成為美國和其出口的未來目的地。

It may also take china more than a decade to transform itself into a developed country, since it needs to at least double its current GDP, will it be able to solve the crisis without the bubble bursting is a big question.

中國可能還需要十年以上的時間才能轉變為一個發達國家，因為它至少需要將目前的GDP翻一番，它是否能夠在保麗龍不破裂的情況下解決危機是一個大問題。

Thanks for watching and see you in the next one.

謝謝你的觀看，下一集見。