Name: 下一次住房崩盤--銀行不想讓你知道的5件事 (The Next Housing Crash - 5 Things Banks Don’t Want You To Know)
Uploaded: 2022-12-06T18:40:27.000Z
Duration: 8 min 45 s

轉承詞

In 2019, the idea of buying a house seemed dumb because the world was going global, home

在2019年，買房子的想法似乎是愚蠢的，因為世界正在走向全球化，家

程度副詞

prices were barely moving, and the stock market was holding strong. Buying a house wasn't

價格幾乎沒有變動，而股票市場則保持強勁。買房子並不是

進階形容詞比較級句型

really as attractive as other investments, but 2020 changed everything. The fed made

真的像其他投資一樣有吸引力，但2020年改變了一切。美聯儲制定了

buying a house one of the best investments you can ever make. Prices literally rose by

買房子是你能做出的最好的投資之一。價格從字面上看上漲了

over 20 percent. The stock market definitely rose much higher, but it crashed. At the time

超過20％。股市肯定漲得更高，但它崩潰了。當時的情況是

of this script, the sp500 is up by around 12 percent since its pre-pandemic level, while

在這個劇本中，sp500指數自大流行前的水準上升了約12%，而

house prices are up by around 20 percent since the beginning of the pandemic. 

自大流行病開始以來，房價上漲了約20%。

However, that's slowly changing. We have talked already that this is not sustainable because,

然而，這正在慢慢改變。我們已經談到，這是不可能持續的，因為。

unlike the stock market, where everyone with a few dollars in their pocket can buy stocks,

不像股票市場，每個人只要口袋裡有幾塊錢就可以買股票。

the housing market is different. A house is usually the biggest purchase in most people's

住房市場則不同。房子通常是大多數人的最大購買行為。

lives, so the market barely moves by 1 or 2 percent a year. That's why some economists

生活，所以市場每年幾乎沒有1%或2%的變動。這就是為什麼一些經濟學家

warned us about another housing crash since the last time house prices rose so much created

自從上次房價大幅上漲後，就警告過我們會有另一次房市崩盤。

the biggest financial crisis in the last few decades. So since we are seeing more and more

在過去的幾十年裡，最大的金融危機。是以，由於我們看到越來越多的

such headlines ( shorturl.at/foFQ2 ), are house prices finally declining? Did the housing

這樣的頭條新聞( shorturl.at/foFQ2)，房價終於下降了嗎？房屋是否

crash just begin? Will the current housing crash will be as bad as the crash of 2008?

崩潰剛剛開始？目前的住房崩盤會不會像2008年的崩盤一樣嚴重？

We will answer all of these questions and many more, but before we do that, give this

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題，但在這之前，請看這個

視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

On the 15th of June, the federal reserve threw an atomic bomb and surprised everyone with

6月15日，美聯儲拋出了一顆原子彈，讓所有人都感到驚訝。

a 0.75 percent increase in rates. This is the biggest increase since 1994. That's going

費率增加了0.75%。這是自1994年以來的最大增幅。這將是

to have a devastating impact on the housing market since the last interest rate hike by

對住房市場產生破壞性的影響，因為上一次加息是由美國政府決定的。

the fed already caused serious damage to the housing market.

美聯儲已經對住房市場造成了嚴重損害。

It might be difficult to expect something to fall when it's rising so fast, but let's

當一個東西上升得如此之快時，期待它的下降可能是困難的，但讓我們

look at what's happening on the ground.  According to experts at realtor.com, more

看看當地正在發生什麼。  據房地產經紀人網站的專家稱，更多的

and more home sellers are slashing their prices in certain areas. This is actually serious

和越來越多的賣房者在某些地區降價。這實際上是嚴重的

since just over 6 or 8 months ago, we had cases such as this where buyers are ready

自從6或8個多月前，我們有這樣的案例，買家準備好了

to overpay for a house just to be the one who is going to buy that home. 

為了成為購買該房屋的人，而過多地支付房屋的費用。

Seems like the days when buyers wou ld bid for a house are over. We are entering a new

貌似買家競價買房的日子已經過去了。我們正在進入一個新的

period where sellers might have to enter into a price-slashing war to attract buyers. At

期間，賣家可能不得不進入降價戰，以吸引買家。在

the end of May, Redfin reported that nearly one in five buyers were lowering their prices,

5月底，Redfin報告說，近五分之一的買家正在降低他們的價格。

something not seen since October 2019. There is a simple explanation behind that. The vast

自2019年10月以來未見的東西。這背後有一個簡單的解釋。巨大的

majority of houses in the U.S. are purchased through mortgages. To be more precise, over

在美國，大多數房屋是通過抵押貸款購買的。更準確地說，超過

60 percent of homes are financed. When the fed raises rates, the cost of borrowing capital

60％的房屋是融資的。當美聯儲提高利率時，借入資本的成本

rises, lowering the number of debt borrowers can take with their current income. A smaller

漲，降低了借款人以其目前收入所能承擔的債務數量。一個較小的

mortgage limits their options, resulting in a lower demand, pushing sellers to slash prices

抵押貸款限制了他們的選擇，導致需求減少，推動賣家降價。

to sell, and so forth. Moody's, the credit rating agency, gave Fortune exclusive access

賣，等等。信用評級機構穆迪給予《財富》獨家訪問權

to its updated proprietary analysis of U.S. housing markets. They tried to find out whether

到其對美國住房市場的最新專有分析。他們試圖找出是否

people with local incomes could support local homes. Through the first quarter of 2022,

有當地收入的人可以支持當地的房屋。到2022年第一季度。

national house prices are "overvalued" by 24.7%. That's up from the fourth quarter of

全國房價被 "高估 "了24.7%。這比去年第四季度上升了

last year when Moody's Analytics determined national house prices were "overvalued" by

去年，穆迪分析公司確定全國的房價被 "高估 "了。

20.9%. When the gap is too wide between house prices

20.9%.當房屋價格之間的差距太大

and what people can afford, it's a matter of time before demand significantly drops.

和人們能夠負擔得起的東西，需求大幅下降是一個時間問題。

That's when you know that the market is overvalued. That's why experts at Atlas Research found

這時你就知道，市場被高估了。這就是為什麼Atlas研究公司的專家發現

out that More than 25% of homes on the market right now have cut their prices. Zillow found

出，目前市場上超過25%的房屋已經降價。Zillow發現

a similar trend in its data. 6.44% of home listings on Zillow saw a price cut—the

在其數據中也有類似的趨勢。在Zillow網站上，6.44%的房屋列表出現了降價------。

highest weekly share of price cuts in more than five years.

五年多來最高的每週減價份額。

At the end of the day, the laws of economics determine the market's direction. In January

在一天結束時，經濟規律決定了市場的方向。在1月份

of this year, the supply of homes finally returned to its pre-pandemic level. However,

今年，房屋供應終於恢復到大流行前的水準。然而。

mortgages were still attractive to drive buyers. However, fast forward to today, and the market

抵押貸款對推動買家仍有吸引力。然而，快進到今天，市場

has changed drastically. The supply of homes in the market hasn't just risen slightly but

已經發生了翻天覆地的變化。市場上的房屋供應不僅僅是略有上升，而是

is at its highest level in the last 12 years. Last time the supply of homes was at this

是在過去12年中的最高水準。上一次房屋供應量在這個

rate back right after the 2008 crash in May 2010.

2010年5月，在2008年崩盤之後，利率立即回升。

 There are many reasons behind that, of course, but one of them is definitely the fact that

當然，這背後有許多原因，但其中一個原因肯定是

sellers have realized that prices aren't going to keep rising if they keep holding on to

賣家已經意識到，如果他們繼續持有，價格就不會繼續上漲。

their assets. They have reached their peak, and the downfall has already begun. If you

他們的資產。他們已經達到了頂峰，而墮落已經開始了。如果你

don't sell now, tomorrow might be too late. The urge to sell before mortgages become too

現在不賣，明天可能就來不及了。在抵押貸款變得太多之前出售的衝動

expensive is driving the supply of homes to the roof. That's actually a really dangerous

昂貴的價格正在推動房屋的供應量達到屋頂。這實際上是一個非常危險的

sign of where the market is because it illustrates that the shortage of homes in the market wasn't

這說明了市場上的房屋短缺並不是一個簡單的問題。

because we couldn't build more homes but rather because buyers were not willing to sell, waiting

因為我們不能建造更多的房屋，而是因為買家不願意出售，等待

for a better opportunity. The question is, what percentage of the houses in the market

爭取更好的機會。問題是，市場上有多少比例的房屋

were purposefully held by the sellers. If that number is too high, we might find ourselves

被賣家有目的地持有。如果這個數字太高，我們可能會發現自己

in a market filled with homes but very little demand which easily can lead to a catastrophe

在一個充滿房屋但需求很少的市場中，這很容易導致災難的發生

that we have witnned in 2008.  The consequences of 2008 lasted over a decade.

我們在2008年遇到的問題。  2008年的後果持續了十年以上。

The problem is that the U.S. economy is not in a position to witness another such crisis.

問題是，美國經濟不具備見證另一場此類危機的條件。

The challenges that the country has been facing for the last 2 years are already shaking the

國家在過去兩年中所面臨的挑戰已經撼動了

economy. Mortgage rates have already hit 6.3 percent, and the real cost to buy a house

經濟。抵押貸款利率已經達到6.3%，而購買房屋的實際成本

has officially spiked over 50% in just 6 months. That marks the highest mortgage rate since

已正式在短短6個月內飆升超過50%。這標誌著自1977年以來的最高抵押貸款利率。

2008. The 3.2 percentage point jump in mortgage rates over the past year also marks the biggest

2008.在過去一年中，抵押貸款利率躍升了3.2個百分點，也標誌著最大的

upward swing since 1981. Soaring mortgage rates mean many would-be

自1981年以來一直處於上升趨勢。飆升的抵押貸款利率意味著許多潛在的

borrowers, who must meet banks' required debt-to-income ratios, have lost their mortgage eligibility.

必須滿足銀行要求的債務收入比的借款人，已經失去了抵押貸款資格。

While buyers who are undeterred will simply have to pay more—a lot more.

而那些毫不畏懼的買家只是需要支付更多--多得多。

It will take us another few months to realize how much the demand is going to fall over

我們還需要幾個月的時間才能意識到需求會下降到什麼程度。

the next few months.  And if the fed hikes the rates again to over

在接下來的幾個月裡。  而如果美聯儲再次加息到超過

2 percent as some experts expect, things might get really ugly by the beginning of 2023. 

如一些專家預期的2%，到2023年初，事情可能會變得非常難看。

Of course, there are experts who are calming us down that a crash isn't gonna happen, and

當然，也有專家在安撫我們，說崩潰不會發生，而且

I really hope that's true. But experts also predicted that the average 30-year fixed mortgage

我真的希望那是真的。但專家也預測，平均30年固定抵押貸款

rate would climb from 3.1% to 3.3% by the end of 2022. We can't say for sure what to

到2022年底，利率將從3.1%攀升至3.3%。我們不能肯定地說，到

expect in the next 12 months since they are so many factors are influencing the fed's

在未來12個月內，由於有如此多的因素影響著美聯儲的決策，是以，我們可以預期，在未來12個月內，美聯儲的決策會有很大的變化。

policy. The United States is trying to balance between managing its internal affairs at home

政策。美國正試圖在管理其國內事務之間取得平衡

and standing up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine that's causing worldwide inflation. Rising

並站出來反對俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵，這導致了全世界的通貨膨脹。崛起

rates alone aren't going to change everything. If inflation keeps rising, home prices are

僅僅是利率並不能改變一切。如果通貨膨脹持續上升，房價是

unlikely to fall since inflation will simply make the cost of building new houses more

不太可能下降，因為通貨膨脹只會使建造新房的成本增加。

expensive, which will at least keep prices where they are. The Biden administration already

昂貴，這至少會使價格保持在原來的水準。拜登政府已經

announced that the president will visit Saudi Arabia to convince the crown prince to increase

宣佈總統將訪問沙特，以說服王儲增加對沙特的投資。

the supply of oil to fill the gap and finally bring prices down. Will he succeed? I don't

填補石油供應的缺口，並最終使價格下降。他能成功嗎？我不知道。

think so, since oil-producing countries are making more money than ever. But how negations

認為如此，因為石油生產國比以往任何時候都賺得更多。但如何否定

are going to continue will remain to be seen. So the direction the housing is going to be

將會繼續下去，還有待觀察。是以，住房的方向將是

headed isn't just based on the fed's policy but is also greatly affected by external factors.

頭部不只是基於美聯儲的政策，而且還受到外部因素的極大影響。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.

感謝您的觀看，我們將在下一期節目中再見。