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  • I've been working from home for so long that the highlight of my day is when the mail comes.


  • Yeah, it's that bad, joe biden can't escape his poor poll numbers just before his trip to the Middle East this week, a reporter asked biden what he made of a new new york Times poll that showed that about two thirds of people who planned to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary wanted someone other than him as the party's nominee.


  • Here's what he said Mr President, what's your message to democrats who don't want you to run again?

    他是這樣說的 總統先生,你對那些不希望你再次參選的民主黨人有什麼建議?

  • They want me to run the polls, Jack, you guys are all the same.


  • That poll showed that 92% of democrats if Iran would vote for me, Which, Well, whoa, get sensitive much.


  • And that 92% wasn't quite measure What biden seemed to say it was, but more on that in a minute, Biden's visible frustration is understandable.


  • He's simply not where he wants to be with voters with with less than four months before election day 2022 nothing biden has done has helped to improve his numbers and he's frankly running out of time.


  • Let's take a step back and let's look at where biden stands in polling and how that compares to other presidents and how low they went in job approval during their terms, luckily for me, we have the gallup presidential job approval center which has approval numbers for every president going back to harry Truman.


  • So let's look then at where recent presidents bottomed out in terms of job approval.


  • All right.


  • So Donald trump lowest was 34% in january of 2021.


  • Barack Obama got down to 40% at several points in 2013 and 2014, George W Bush went to 25% in october oh eight.


  • Bill Clinton was at 37% in june 93.


  • George.


  • H.


  • W.


  • Bush was at 29% in july slash august 92 Ronald Reagan was at 35% in january of 83.


  • The average of the lowest job approval ratings of the six previous presidents is 33% which is significantly under the 40% job approval.


  • That marks biden's low point to date in gallup polling.


  • But it also suggests that biden could definitely go lower between now and november.


  • In fact, we are already seeing that slippage happening in late june CNN's poll of polls which averages the last five national polls put biden's approval At 38% with 57 disapproving of how he's handling the job and it looks like things are getting worse.


  • Not better.


  • That New York Times poll I mentioned from early July his approval rating in that poll was an astonishingly low, 33% before I go on.


  • Let's do a quick bit of analysis on that pole returning to the point at the top and whether biden was justified in his annoyed response to reporters and how they were interpreting it.


  • So the big headline out of that poll was that 64% of people who expect to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary want someone other than joe biden as their nominee among young voters who were considered one of the emerging basis of the Democratic Party just a decade ago, a meager 5% 12345 wanted biden to be the party's nominee again in two years.


  • The poll did test biden head to head against donald trump and in that matchup, the president did take 44% to 41% for trump.


  • And as biden rightly noted, 92% of democrats said they would vote for him rather than trump.


  • Now to biden's mind that 92% number is proof positive that democrats are actually behind him, no matter what the other findings in the poll might say, but I have a different read on that to my mind that 92% of Democratic support for biden, especially when you consider the other bad numbers for biden in the poll is much more about this thing for trump and much less about love or even like for biden.


  • Now if trump is the Republican nominee in 2024 he is the favorite right now than it may not matter how lukewarm democrats might feel about joe biden, they probably would be motivated by their white hot hatred for trump instead, but if trump is not the nominee, Well then we could be talking about something else entirely.


  • The simple fact when biden likes it or not is that he is a deeply unpopular president at the moment and that unpopularity is not solely due to republicans and independents.


  • There's a healthy chunk of his own voters, particularly young people who are less than enthused to put it nicely to cast another ballot for him.


  • Of course biden isn't running for reelection this november.


  • Yes, I get it.


  • He's got the better part of the next two years to try to fix this polling problem.


  • But there's an issue there to biden's low poll numbers have been super surprisingly consistent for months Now, the last time that joe biden had the approval of a majority of the american public in a gallup survey was in july 2021.


  • At that time, biden's approval was right at 50%.


  • The last time biden's job approval rating was higher than 45%.


  • In gallup polling was august 2021 when it stood at 49% since last august.


  • So 11 months biden's job approval in gallup polling has never been higher than 43%.


I've been working from home for so long that the highlight of my day is when the mail comes.


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拜登對自己慘淡的民調數字不理解的地方 (What Biden doesn't get about his dismal poll numbers)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2022 年 11 月 21 日