Name: 拜登對自己慘淡的民調數字不理解的地方 (What Biden doesn't get about his dismal poll numbers)
Uploaded: 2022-11-21T17:50:38.000Z
Duration: 5 min 8 s

I've been working from home for so long that the highlight of my day is when the mail comes.

我在家裡工作了這麼久，每天的亮點就是郵件來的時候。

程度副詞

Yeah, it's that bad, joe biden can't escape his poor poll numbers just before his trip to the Middle East this week, a reporter asked biden what he made of a new new york Times poll that showed that about two thirds of people who planned to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary wanted someone other than him as the party's nominee.

是的，情況就是這麼糟糕，喬-拜登無法擺脫他糟糕的民調數字，就在他本週的中東之行前，一名記者問拜登，他對紐約時報的一項新民調有何看法，該民調顯示，約有三分之二的人計劃在2024年民主黨初選中投票，希望他以外的人成為黨的提名人。

Here's what he said Mr President, what's your message to democrats who don't want you to run again?

他是這樣說的 總統先生，你對那些不希望你再次參選的民主黨人有什麼建議？

They want me to run the polls, Jack, you guys are all the same.

他們想讓我負責投票，傑克，你們都是一樣的。

That poll showed that 92% of democrats if Iran would vote for me, Which, Well, whoa, get sensitive much.

該民意調查顯示，92%的民主黨人如果在伊朗會投票給我，其中，嗯，哇，得到敏感的多。

And that 92% wasn't quite measure What biden seemed to say it was, but more on that in a minute, Biden's visible frustration is understandable.

而且，92%的比例並不完全是衡量拜登似乎說的那樣，但一分鐘後再談這個問題，拜登明顯的挫敗感是可以理解的。

He's simply not where he wants to be with voters with with less than four months before election day 2022 nothing biden has done has helped to improve his numbers and he's frankly running out of time.

在距離選舉日不到四個月的時間裡，他根本沒有達到他想要的位置，2022年，拜登所做的一切都無助於改善他的數據，坦率地說，他已經沒有時間了。

Let's take a step back and let's look at where biden stands in polling and how that compares to other presidents and how low they went in job approval during their terms, luckily for me, we have the gallup presidential job approval center which has approval numbers for every president going back to harry Truman.

讓我們退一步，讓我們看看拜登在民調中的位置，以及與其他總統的比較，以及他們在任期內的工作支持率有多低，幸運的是，我們有加洛普總統工作支持中心，它有每個總統的支持數字，可以追溯到哈里-杜魯門。

So let's look then at where recent presidents bottomed out in terms of job approval.

那麼，讓我們來看看最近幾任總統在工作支持方面的底線。

So Donald trump lowest was 34% in january of 2021.

是以，唐納德-特朗普在2021年1月最低是34%。

Barack Obama got down to 40% at several points in 2013 and 2014, George W Bush went to 25% in october oh eight.

奧巴馬在2013年和2014年的幾個點上降到了40%，小布什在10月哦8日降到了25%。

比爾-克林頓在93年6月的時候是37%。

Bush was at 29% in july slash august 92 Ronald Reagan was at 35% in january of 83.

布什在92年7月和8月的時候是29%，羅納德-里根在83年1月的時候是35%。

The average of the lowest job approval ratings of the six previous presidents is 33% which is significantly under the 40% job approval.

前六位總統的最低工作支持率平均為33%，大大低於40%的工作支持率。

That marks biden's low point to date in gallup polling.

這標誌著拜登迄今為止在蓋洛普民意調查中的低點。

But it also suggests that biden could definitely go lower between now and november.

但這也表明，從現在到11月，拜登絕對可以走低。

In fact, we are already seeing that slippage happening in late june CNN's poll of polls which averages the last five national polls put biden's approval At 38% with 57 disapproving of how he's handling the job and it looks like things are getting worse.

事實上，我們已經看到這種滑坡發生在6月下旬，美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）的民意調查對過去五次全國性民意調查進行了平均，認為拜登的支持率為38%，有57人不贊成他如何處理這項工作，而且看起來情況越來越糟。

That New York Times poll I mentioned from early July his approval rating in that poll was an astonishingly low, 33% before I go on.

我提到的《紐約時報》7月初的那份民調，他在那份民調中的支持率低得驚人，在我繼續說之前是33%。

Let's do a quick bit of analysis on that pole returning to the point at the top and whether biden was justified in his annoyed response to reporters and how they were interpreting it.

讓我們對這一極進行一下分析，回到頂部的觀點，以及拜登對記者的惱怒迴應是否有道理，以及他們是如何解釋的。

So the big headline out of that poll was that 64% of people who expect to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary want someone other than joe biden as their nominee among young voters who were considered one of the emerging basis of the Democratic Party just a decade ago, a meager 5% 12345 wanted biden to be the party's nominee again in two years.

是以，該民意調查的大標題是，64%的人預計在2024年民主黨初選中投票，希望喬-貝登以外的人成為他們的提名人，而這些人在十年前被認為是民主黨的新興基礎之一，只有5%的12345希望貝登在兩年內再次成為黨的提名人。

The poll did test biden head to head against donald trump and in that matchup, the president did take 44% to 41% for trump.

該民調確實對拜登與唐納德-特朗普進行了正面測試，在這場對決中，總統確實以44%對41%的比例支持特朗普。

And as biden rightly noted, 92% of democrats said they would vote for him rather than trump.

而且，正如拜登正確指出的那樣，92%的民主黨人說他們會投票給他而不是特朗普。

Now to biden's mind that 92% number is proof positive that democrats are actually behind him, no matter what the other findings in the poll might say, but I have a different read on that to my mind that 92% of Democratic support for biden, especially when you consider the other bad numbers for biden in the poll is much more about this thing for trump and much less about love or even like for biden.

現在，在拜登看來，92%的數字證明了民主黨人實際上是支持他的，無論民調的其他結果如何，但我有不同的解讀，在我看來，民主黨人對拜登的92%的支持，特別是當你考慮到民調中其他對拜登不利的數字時，對特朗普的支持要多得多，對拜登的愛甚至喜歡要少得多。

Now if trump is the Republican nominee in 2024 he is the favorite right now than it may not matter how lukewarm democrats might feel about joe biden, they probably would be motivated by their white hot hatred for trump instead, but if trump is not the nominee, Well then we could be talking about something else entirely.

現在，如果特朗普是共和黨2024年的提名人，他現在是最受歡迎的，那麼民主黨人對喬-比登的感覺可能就不那麼冷淡了，他們可能會被對特朗普的白熱化仇恨所驅使，但如果特朗普不是提名人，那麼我們可能會談論完全不同的事情。

The simple fact when biden likes it or not is that he is a deeply unpopular president at the moment and that unpopularity is not solely due to republicans and independents.

不管拜登喜不喜歡，一個簡單的事實是，他目前是一個非常不受歡迎的總統，而這種不受歡迎並不僅僅是由於共和黨人和獨立人士。

There's a healthy chunk of his own voters, particularly young people who are less than enthused to put it nicely to cast another ballot for him.

他自己的選民中有很大一部分人，特別是年輕人，說得好聽點是不太願意再給他投票。

Of course biden isn't running for reelection this november.

當然，拜登在今年11月沒有競選連任。

He's got the better part of the next two years to try to fix this polling problem.

他有兩年的時間來嘗試解決這個民調問題。

But there's an issue there to biden's low poll numbers have been super surprisingly consistent for months Now, the last time that joe biden had the approval of a majority of the american public in a gallup survey was in july 2021.

但那裡有一個問題，拜登的低民調數字幾個月來一直超級驚人地一致。現在，喬-拜登在蓋洛普調查中最後一次獲得大多數美國公眾的支持是在2021年7月。

At that time, biden's approval was right at 50%.

當時，拜登的支持率正好是50%。

The last time biden's job approval rating was higher than 45%.

上次拜登的工作支持率高於45%。

In gallup polling was august 2021 when it stood at 49% since last august.

在蓋洛普民意調查是2021年8月的時候，自去年8月以來，它保持在49%。

 So 11 months biden's job approval in gallup polling has never been higher than 43%. 

是以，11個月來，拜登的工作支持率在蓋洛普民意調查中從未高於43%。