of progress made on climate policies at the G-20.

20國集團在氣候政策方面取得的進展。

It's the body that should be leading  Covid recovery, economic recovery,  

它是應該上司科維德復甦、經濟復甦的機構。

but it's also hopelessly divided  between its internal membership.

但它的內部成員之間也是無望的分裂。

That, to me, makes it a disappointing G20.

對我來說，這使它成為一個令人失望的G20。

Despite its early promise, the G-20  has often been criticized for failing  

儘管20國集團早期承諾，但它經常被責備為未能

to tackle the most pressing  global issues of our time.

以解決我們這個時代最緊迫的全球問題。

But how and why did the bloc come into existence?

但是，這個集團是如何以及為什麼會出現的呢？

What challenges has it faced?

它面臨的挑戰是什麼？

And are the criticisms really warranted?

而這些責備真的有道理嗎？

The G-20, or Group of Twenty,  

20國集團，即20國集團。

is an informal meeting of twenty  of the world's largest economies.

是世界上最大的20個經濟體的非正式會議。

It was born out of the G-7,  or Group of Seven, in 1999,  

它誕生於1999年的七國集團，即七國集團。

with one main purpose: global financial stability.

有一個主要目的：全球金融穩定。

At the time, the world was in the process  of recovering from a financial crisis,  

當時，世界正處於從金融危機中恢復的過程中。

which originated in Asia in 1997 and  spread across international stock markets.

它於1997年起源於亞洲，並在國際股票市場上蔓延。

The finance ministers and central bank  governors for the G-7 met in Washington  D.C.

七國集團的財政部長和中央銀行行長在華盛頓特區開會。

following the crisis and realized they  couldn't sufficiently address vulnerabilities  

在危機發生後，他們意識到他們無法充分解決脆弱性的問題。

in the global financial system without expanding  the number of economies sitting around the table.

在全球金融體系中，在不擴大坐在會議桌旁的經濟體數量的情況下。

So, they proposed a new forum, which would eventually include

是以，他們提出了一個新的論壇，最終將包括

the G-7 countries and 13 other “systemically significant economies.”

七國集團國家和其他13個 "具有系統重要性的經濟體"。

The forum was initially confined to just the finance ministers and

該論壇最初僅侷限於財政部長和

central bank governors of the 20 members.

20個成員的中央銀行行長。

Guest countries, as well as international and regional organizations,

客人國家以及國際和區域組織。

would also be invited to attend.

也將被邀請參加。

But heads of state didn't get involved until nearly a decade later

但國家元首們直到近十年後才開始參與進來

when another, bigger financial crisis came along.

當另一個更大的金融危機出現時。

The G-20 leaders meeting was  the result of an accident. 

20國集團領導人會議是一個意外的結果。

The big accident was the global  financial crisis of 2008-2009.

最大的意外是2008-2009年的全球金融危機。

Kishore Mahbubani was the president of the United  Nations Security Council in the early 2000s.

基肖爾-馬布巴尼在21世紀初曾擔任聯合國安全理事會主席。

He explained to me how the G-20  meetings expanded in scope.

他向我解釋了20國集團會議的範圍如何擴大。

The United States realized that it was in  its interests, to have a leaders meeting,  

美國意識到，舉行一次領導人會議符合其利益。

to try and find a solution to  the global financial crisis.

試圖找到一個解決全球金融危機的辦法。

And I will say, that was the finest  moment of the G-20 leaders meeting,  

我要說的是，那是20國集團領導人會議中最精彩的時刻。

especially the second leaders meeting in London.

特別是在倫敦舉行的第二次領導人會議。

They came up with a global stimulus  package that essentially saved the world,  

他們想出了一個全球刺激計劃，基本上拯救了世界。

and it saved the world because  everybody participated in it.

而且它拯救了世界，因為每個人都參與其中。

Even China, which had not  been very badly affected,  

即使是沒有受到非常嚴重影響的中國。

was prepared to commit $50 billion, for  a $1 trillion global stimulus package.

準備承諾500億美元，用於1萬億美元的全球經濟刺激計劃。

Collectively, the G-20 bloc  makes up over 80 percent of  

二十國集團的總和佔到了世界經濟總量的80%以上。

global gross domestic product and  75 percent of international trade.

全球國內生產總值的75%和國際貿易的75%。

The G-7 is a sunset organization, and  the G-20 is a sunrise organization.

七國集團是一個夕陽組織，而20國集團是一個朝陽組織。

When the G-7 leaders meet, they claim  to speak on behalf of the world.

當七國集團領導人開會時，他們聲稱要代表世界發言。

But they represent less than  10% of the world's population.

但他們只佔世界人口的不到10%。

Whereas I think the G-20 represents  60% of the world's population.

而我認為20國集團代表了世界人口的60%。

While the G-20 may indeed be a more representative body than the G-7,

雖然20國集團可能確實是一個比7國集團更具代表性的機構。

it doesn't mean impactful solutions, like the global stimulus package

這並不意味著有影響的解決方案，如全球經濟刺激計劃

that emerged out of the 2009 summit, come easily.

2009年峰會上出現的 "新 "的概念是很容易實現的。

In fact, much of the heavy lifting is done in the lead-up to these meetings.

事實上，許多繁重的工作是在這些會議的準備階段完成的。

The G-20 presidency rotates  each year among its members.

20國集團主席職位每年由其成員輪流擔任。

In the absence of a permanent secretariat,  a “troika,” which consists of the current,  

在沒有常設祕書處的情況下，由現任的 "三駕馬車 "組成。

previous, and incoming presidencies,  shapes the agenda, while ensuring the  

前任主席和下任主席對議程進行了調整，同時確保了在新的一年裡，我們的工作將更加出色。

continuity of tasks and goals from previous years.

前幾年的任務和目標的延續性。

This work is divided into two streams:  a finance track and the Sherpa track.

這項工作分為兩個流向：金融軌道和夏爾巴人軌道。

All agenda items under the finance  track are handled by the members'  

財務軌道下的所有議程項目都由成員處理。

finance ministers and central bank governors.

財政部長和中央銀行行長。

They work in conjunction with the G-20  leaders' personal representatives,  

他們與20國集團領導人的個人代表一起工作。

known as “sherpas,” whose remit  includes a wider spectrum of issues.

被稱為 "sherpas"，其職權範圍包括更廣泛的問題。

Both tracks feature a series of  ministerial meetings, working groups,  

兩個軌道都有一系列的部長級會議、工作組。

conferences and engagements with  non-governmental organizations.

會議和與非政府組織的接觸。

Francesco Mancini is a non-resident senior  adviser at the International Peace Institute  

弗朗西斯科-曼奇尼是國際和平研究所的非常駐高級顧問。

and a professor at the National University of  Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

以及新加坡國立大學李光耀公共政策學院的教授。

The G-20s are actually quite informal,  if you compare them to the traditional  

G-20實際上是很不正式的，如果你把它們與傳統的

very stiff kind of diplomatic  chambers of the United Nations.

非常僵硬的那種聯合國的外交廳。

It was born, the G-20, as a tool to address macroeconomics and financial  issues.

它的誕生，即20國集團，是一個解決宏觀經濟和金融問題的工具。

But today, the agenda is much broader.

但今天，議程要寬泛得多。

They discuss unemployment, corruption, climate  change, digital technology, you name it.

他們討論失業、腐敗、氣候變化、數字技術等問題。

We all remember the summits, because that's  

我們都記得峰會，因為那是

the moment when the presidents  and the prime ministers meet.

在總統和總理會面的時刻。

But in reality, there has been already  many meetings through the year.

但實際上，在這一年中已經有很多會議了。

At the end, there is generally a communique,  a statement that is built on consensus.

最後，一般會有一份公報，一份建立在共識基礎上的聲明。

The key word, here, is consensus.  So, how often is that achieved?

這裡的關鍵詞，是共識。 那麼，這種共識多久才能達成？

Unfortunately, the United States,  lost interest in the G-20.

不幸的是，美國，對20國集團失去了興趣。

In fact, a former director of the  National Intelligence Council told me

事實上，國家情報委員會的一位前主任告訴我

very frankly, he said: Kishore, I know why  a small state like Singapore likes multilateral  

非常坦率地說，他說。Kishore，我知道為什麼像新加坡這樣的小國喜歡多邊

institutions, because it enhances your  ability to influence other countries.

機構，因為它增強了你影響其他國家的能力。

Whereas for a great power like the United States,  multilateral institutions, constrain them.

而對於像美國這樣的大國來說，多邊機構，制約著他們。

If, for example, we think about President  Trump, where he actually withdrew from the Paris  

例如，如果我們想到特朗普總統，他實際上退出了巴黎

Agreement, which triggered the G-20 to actually  reinforce their commitment to the Paris Agreement.

協定，這引發了20國集團實際上加強了對《巴黎協定》的承諾。

Normal language like international cooperation  and trade were not used in the communique,  

公報中沒有使用國際合作和貿易等正常語言。

because the U.S. was against it. I think  since then, things got a little better.

因為美國反對它。我認為從那時起，事情變得更好了一些。

But reality is that the tariffs that Trump put  

但現實情況是，特朗普把關稅

in place are still there. So,  the division is still there.

在位的仍在那裡。所以，分裂仍然存在。

In 2014, Russia was suspended  from what was then the G-8,  

2014年，俄羅斯被暫停了當時的八國集團成員資格。

following the annexation of Crimea,13 before  it decided to permanently leave in 2017.

在克里米亞被吞併後，13它決定在2017年永久離開。

And then in 2022, there were calls for it to be  

而後在2022年，有人呼籲將其作為

excluded from the G-20 meetings  after its invasion of Ukraine.

在其入侵烏克蘭後被排除在20國集團會議之外。

And that's an absolute mistake.  Because at the end of the day,  

而這絕對是一個錯誤。 因為在一天結束的時候，

Russia is a key player in the world,  as are all other great powers.

俄羅斯是世界上的一個關鍵角色，所有其他大國也是如此。

And it's better to have them all  in one room talking to one another.

而且最好讓他們都在一個房間裡互相交談。

And there's not just internal  divisions within the G-20.

而且，這不僅僅是20國集團內部的分歧。

Protests have been a regular feature at  the summits - a clear indication of public  

抗議活動一直是峰會的常規特徵--這清楚地表明瞭公眾的態度。

discontent regarding the bloc's ability to  address key global problems, or lack thereof.

對該集團解決關鍵全球問題的能力或缺乏這種能力感到不滿。

In 2018, market research firm YouGov  polled inhabitants of five G-20 member  

2018年，市場研究公司YouGov對20國集團五個成員國的居民進行了民意調查

countries about their perception of  the bloc's problem-solving abilities.

各國對該集團解決問題的能力的看法。

The results were not encouraging.

結果並不令人鼓舞。

Those residing in Argentina, which  held the G-20 presidency that year,  

那些居住在當年擔任20國集團主席國的阿根廷。

had the most positive perceptions  of the forum, followed by Russia.

對該論壇的看法最積極，其次是俄羅斯。

It was a different picture in  the U.K., Germany and the U.S.,  

在英國、德國和美國則是另一番景象。

where only a third of those  polled viewed the G-20 favorably.

其中只有三分之一的受訪者對20國集團持好評。

There are also questions  over the G-20's exclusivity.

還有人對20國集團的排他性提出質疑。

A report as far back as 2011 by the Danish  Institute for International Studies termed the  

早在2011年，丹麥國際研究學院的一份報告就稱

G-20's “institutionalized practice” of inviting  representatives from under-represented regions  

20國集團邀請代表性不足地區的代表的 "制度化做法"

as “concession at the margins,” while also  criticizing its move of “permanently excluding  

在責備其 "永久排斥 "之舉的同時，也認為其 "在邊緣地帶做出讓步"。

173 countries” as a fact that “undercuts  its claim to representational legitimacy.”

173個國家 "的事實，"削弱了它對代表合法性的要求"。

11 years on, those 173 countries continue to  be excluded from the G20's membership. So,  

11年過去了，這173個國家仍然被排除在20國集團的成員之外。所以。

is there hope for a more inclusive future?

更具包容性的未來是否有希望？

Why should like 10% of the world's  population hold 40% of the seats  

為什麼世界上10%的人口要佔有40%的席位？

of G20? That's not right. It just reflects the  fact that they are economically more powerful.

二十國集團的？這是不對的。這只是反映了一個事實，即他們在經濟上更強大。

But in the world of tomorrow, let's say  if you exclude a country like Nigeria,  

但在明天的世界裡，比方說如果你排除了像尼日利亞這樣的國家。

which by current projections, will have a  larger population than China by the year 2100,  

根據目前的預測，到2100年，中國的人口將超過中國。

then you are not having a representative  body that represents the world of things.

那麼你就沒有一個代表事物世界的代表機構。

So, I think there needs to be constant  reshuffling of the membership of the  

是以，我認為，需要不斷地重新調整委員會的成員。

G20 to reflect not yesterday's  powers, but tomorrow's powers.

20國集團要反映的不是昨天的權力，而是明天的權力。

The most representative body in the world is  the General Assembly of the United Nations,  

世界上最具代表性的機構是聯合國大會。

for every country is present with one vote.

為每個國家都有一票出席。

But we also know that it's very  hard for this body to be effective.

但我們也知道，這個機構要想有效，是非常困難的。

So, I wouldn't go for a G-50, I think will be  a big challenge to make any concrete decision.

是以，我不會選擇G-50，我認為要做出任何具體的決定將是一個很大的挑戰。

While the informal nature of the G-20 means  there are no binding resolutions or sanctions,  

雖然20國集團的非正式性質意味著沒有具有約束力的決議或制裁。

advocates say the forum is invaluable in  fostering conversations between leaders.

倡導者說，該論壇在促進領導人之間的對話方面是非常寶貴的。

We have to remember that  there is a lot of bilateral  

我們必須記住，有很多的雙邊

activities happening during these meetings.

這些會議期間發生的活動。

In the past, we might remember where  

在過去，我們可能記得在哪裡

Trump and Xi Jinping agreed in not  implementing tariffs for that time,

特朗普和習近平同意在這段時間內不實施關稅。

or where President Biden and Macron of  France had the opportunity to meet again,  

或拜登總統和法國的馬克龍有機會再次會面的地方。

after the U.K. and U.S. and Australia,

繼英國、美國和澳洲之後。

kicking out France, from a submarine  nuclear agreement with Australia.

將法國從與澳洲的潛艇核協議中踢出去。

The G-20 leaders' meetings themselves  often don't accomplish very much.

20國集團領導人會議本身往往並沒有取得多大的成就。

But when you have bilateral meetings on  the side, they can be incredibly important.

但當你有雙邊會議的時候，它們可能是令人難以置信的重要。

Even if there's no consensus among the leaders,  that doesn't mean that meeting has failed,  

即使領導人之間沒有達成共識，這也不意味著會議失敗了。

because there may actually have been a  better understanding that is developed.

因為實際上可能已經形成了一個更好的理解。