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- There's this classic thought experiment
- 有這樣一個經典的思想實驗
about two gardens.
關於兩個園子。
So imagine one garden and it has
是以,想象一個花園,它有
the perfect amount of sunlight,
完美的陽光量。
and then you plant different flowers in that garden.
然後你在那個花園裡種植不同的花。
And you can look and say,
而你可以看一看,說一說。
"Well, the differences between them
"嗯,他們之間的差異
in these plants' heights is about the seeds that I planted.
在這些植物的高度是關於我種下的種子。
They all have the perfect environmental conditions.
他們都有完美的環境條件。
The differences between them are genetic."
他們之間的差異是遺傳的。"
Now imagine another garden, and it is neglected.
現在想象一下另一個花園,它是被忽視的。
If you looked at that and you said,
如果你看了這個,你說。
"All those plants are stunted and dead,"
"所有這些植物都發育不良,已經死了"。
and then you said,
然後你說。
"Ah, the difference between these two gardens
"啊,這兩個園子的區別
is that these plants in the neglected garden
是這些被忽視的花園裡的植物
are genetically shorter than these plants
在遺傳上比這些植物短
in the rich, well-resourced garden."
在豐富的、資源充足的花園裡"。
We can't then say that all the differences
那麼我們就不能說所有的差異
between tall and short plants
高矮植物之間
across very different environments
跨越非常不同的環境
are in fact due to genetics.
事實上是由於遺傳因素造成的。
That's a really obvious thing when it comes to plants,
談到植物,這是一個非常明顯的事情。
but it's a really difficult thing for people
但這對人們來說是一件非常困難的事情
to keep in mind when we're talking about individual
當我們在談論個人的時候,要牢記
versus group differences.
與群體差異。
This relationship between
這種關係在
heritability and response to the environment
遺傳性和對環境的反應
is a complicated one.
是一個複雜的問題。
'Heritability' is the proportion of variation
遺傳性 "是指變異的比例
in a population that's due
的人口中,由於
to genetic differences between people.
對人與人之間的遺傳差異。
It's a confusing term because people misinterpret heritable
這是一個令人困惑的術語,因為人們誤解了可遺傳的
to mean 'genetically determined,
意思是 "基因決定"。
unmodifiable by the environment, or innate.'
不能被環境改變的,或者說是先天的。
And it doesn't mean any of those things.
而且它並不意味著任何這些事情。
But it's hard for us scientists to describe why.
但對我們科學家來說,很難描述原因。
The thing about factoring in environment in genetic studies
關於在遺傳研究中考慮環境因素的問題
is that we already face
是,我們已經面臨
an enormous, statistical power problem.
一個巨大的、統計學上的權力問題。
Do you have enough people?
你有足夠的人嗎?
Do you have enough observations?
你有足夠的觀察力嗎?
Do you have enough data to be able to reliably say
你是否有足夠的數據,能夠可靠地說
that what you're picking up on is real
你所瞭解到的是真實的。
and not just random chance?
而不僅僅是隨機的機會?
Genetic studies that ignore the environment
忽視環境的遺傳研究
and are just looking for the "main effects"
而只是在尋找 "主要效應"
of genes are already requiring sample sizes
的基因已經要求樣本量
in excess of one million people.
超過一百萬人。
So when you start to factor in
是以,當你開始考慮到
gene-by-environment interaction,
基因與環境的相互作用。
the power problem gets even bigger.
權力問題就更大了。
Statistics is hard, biology is hard.
統計學很難,生物學也很難。
A lot of times people haven't had exposure to this
很多時候,人們還沒有接觸過這個問題。
since high school, if at all.
自高中以來,如果有的話。
In the larger conversation,
在更大的對話中。
we're trying to make sense of information about race.
我們正在努力使有關種族的資訊有意義。
We're trying to make sense of information about genes,
我們正在努力使有關基因的資訊有意義。
about education, about inequality.
關於教育,關於不平等。
I think it's really understandable
我認為這真的可以理解
that people have a hard time thinking
人們很難想到
about how all these things go together.
關於所有這些事情是如何結合起來的。
'Portability' is this idea that what we've discovered
可移植性 "是這樣一種想法,即我們所發現的
in one sample or one group of people,
在一個樣本或一組人中。
how much can we port that over to a new group of people,
我們能在多大程度上將其移植到新的人群中。
and trust that things are gonna work in the same way?
並相信事情會以同樣的方式進行?
So we see this all the time with our social science effects.
是以,我們經常看到我們的社會科學效果是這樣的。
A minimum wage change in one state
一個州的最低工資變化
doesn't have the same effect as a minimum wage change
並不具有與最低工資變化相同的效果
in another state.
在另一個州。
What I think people often miss
我認為人們經常錯過的是
is that genetic causes can operate in the same way.
是,遺傳原因可以以同樣的方式運作。
So, just because a gene influences the probability
是以,僅僅因為一個基因影響到的概率
of an outcome in this group of people,
的結果在這群人中。
to the extent that that's probabilistic
以至於這是個概率問題
rather than deterministic,
而不是決定性的。
to the extent that that genetic effect
以至於該遺傳效應
is moderated by the environment,
受到環境的調節。
we're not gonna be able to expect it to be portable
我們不能指望它是可移植的
when we study a new group of people.
當我們研究一個新的群體時。
When I say that something's heritable,
當我說有些東西是可以遺傳的。
I mean that within a group of people
我的意思是,在一群人中
that have experienced
經歷過的
roughly-equivalent environmental conditions,
大致相當的環境條件。
genetic differences between them are related
他們之間的遺傳差異與
to the phenotypic differences between them.
到它們之間的表型差異。
The genes of the seeds are related to the height
種子的基因與高度有關
of the flowers.
的花。
But that doesn't allow us to make the leap
但這並不允許我們進行跳躍式的發展
that differences between groups
群體之間的差異
that have experienced
經歷過的
really different environmental legacies are due to genetics.
真正不同的環境遺留問題是由於遺傳造成的。