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  • - There's this classic thought experiment

    - 有這樣一個經典的思想實驗

  • about two gardens.

    關於兩個園子。

  • So imagine one garden and it has

    是以,想象一個花園,它有

  • the perfect amount of sunlight,

    完美的陽光量。

  • and then you plant different flowers in that garden.

    然後你在那個花園裡種植不同的花。

  • And you can look and say,

    而你可以看一看,說一說。

  • "Well, the differences between them

    "嗯,他們之間的差異

  • in these plants' heights is about the seeds that I planted.

    在這些植物的高度是關於我種下的種子。

  • They all have the perfect environmental conditions.

    他們都有完美的環境條件。

  • The differences between them are genetic."

    他們之間的差異是遺傳的。"

  • Now imagine another garden, and it is neglected.

    現在想象一下另一個花園,它是被忽視的。

  • If you looked at that and you said,

    如果你看了這個,你說。

  • "All those plants are stunted and dead,"

    "所有這些植物都發育不良,已經死了"。

  • and then you said,

    然後你說。

  • "Ah, the difference between these two gardens

    "啊,這兩個園子的區別

  • is that these plants in the neglected garden

    是這些被忽視的花園裡的植物

  • are genetically shorter than these plants

    在遺傳上比這些植物短

  • in the rich, well-resourced garden."

    在豐富的、資源充足的花園裡"。

  • We can't then say that all the differences

    那麼我們就不能說所有的差異

  • between tall and short plants

    高矮植物之間

  • across very different environments

    跨越非常不同的環境

  • are in fact due to genetics.

    事實上是由於遺傳因素造成的。

  • That's a really obvious thing when it comes to plants,

    談到植物,這是一個非常明顯的事情。

  • but it's a really difficult thing for people

    但這對人們來說是一件非常困難的事情

  • to keep in mind when we're talking about individual

    當我們在談論個人的時候,要牢記

  • versus group differences.

    與群體差異。

  • This relationship between

    這種關係在

  • heritability and response to the environment

    遺傳性和對環境的反應

  • is a complicated one.

    是一個複雜的問題。

  • 'Heritability' is the proportion of variation

    遺傳性 "是指變異的比例

  • in a population that's due

    的人口中,由於

  • to genetic differences between people.

    對人與人之間的遺傳差異。

  • It's a confusing term because people misinterpret heritable

    這是一個令人困惑的術語,因為人們誤解了可遺傳的

  • to mean 'genetically determined,

    意思是 "基因決定"。

  • unmodifiable by the environment, or innate.'

    不能被環境改變的,或者說是先天的。

  • And it doesn't mean any of those things.

    而且它並不意味著任何這些事情。

  • But it's hard for us scientists to describe why.

    但對我們科學家來說,很難描述原因。

  • The thing about factoring in environment in genetic studies

    關於在遺傳研究中考慮環境因素的問題

  • is that we already face

    是,我們已經面臨

  • an enormous, statistical power problem.

    一個巨大的、統計學上的權力問題。

  • Do you have enough people?

    你有足夠的人嗎?

  • Do you have enough observations?

    你有足夠的觀察力嗎?

  • Do you have enough data to be able to reliably say

    你是否有足夠的數據,能夠可靠地說

  • that what you're picking up on is real

    你所瞭解到的是真實的。

  • and not just random chance?

    而不僅僅是隨機的機會?

  • Genetic studies that ignore the environment

    忽視環境的遺傳研究

  • and are just looking for the "main effects"

    而只是在尋找 "主要效應"

  • of genes are already requiring sample sizes

    的基因已經要求樣本量

  • in excess of one million people.

    超過一百萬人。

  • So when you start to factor in

    是以,當你開始考慮到

  • gene-by-environment interaction,

    基因與環境的相互作用。

  • the power problem gets even bigger.

    權力問題就更大了。

  • Statistics is hard, biology is hard.

    統計學很難,生物學也很難。

  • A lot of times people haven't had exposure to this

    很多時候,人們還沒有接觸過這個問題。

  • since high school, if at all.

    自高中以來,如果有的話。

  • In the larger conversation,

    在更大的對話中。

  • we're trying to make sense of information about race.

    我們正在努力使有關種族的資訊有意義。

  • We're trying to make sense of information about genes,

    我們正在努力使有關基因的資訊有意義。

  • about education, about inequality.

    關於教育,關於不平等。

  • I think it's really understandable

    我認為這真的可以理解

  • that people have a hard time thinking

    人們很難想到

  • about how all these things go together.

    關於所有這些事情是如何結合起來的。

  • 'Portability' is this idea that what we've discovered

    可移植性 "是這樣一種想法,即我們所發現的

  • in one sample or one group of people,

    在一個樣本或一組人中。

  • how much can we port that over to a new group of people,

    我們能在多大程度上將其移植到新的人群中。

  • and trust that things are gonna work in the same way?

    並相信事情會以同樣的方式進行?

  • So we see this all the time with our social science effects.

    是以,我們經常看到我們的社會科學效果是這樣的。

  • A minimum wage change in one state

    一個州的最低工資變化

  • doesn't have the same effect as a minimum wage change

    並不具有與最低工資變化相同的效果

  • in another state.

    在另一個州。

  • What I think people often miss

    我認為人們經常錯過的是

  • is that genetic causes can operate in the same way.

    是,遺傳原因可以以同樣的方式運作。

  • So, just because a gene influences the probability

    是以,僅僅因為一個基因影響到的概率

  • of an outcome in this group of people,

    的結果在這群人中。

  • to the extent that that's probabilistic

    以至於這是個概率問題

  • rather than deterministic,

    而不是決定性的。

  • to the extent that that genetic effect

    以至於該遺傳效應

  • is moderated by the environment,

    受到環境的調節。

  • we're not gonna be able to expect it to be portable

    我們不能指望它是可移植的

  • when we study a new group of people.

    當我們研究一個新的群體時。

  • When I say that something's heritable,

    當我說有些東西是可以遺傳的。

  • I mean that within a group of people

    我的意思是,在一群人中

  • that have experienced

    經歷過的

  • roughly-equivalent environmental conditions,

    大致相當的環境條件。

  • genetic differences between them are related

    他們之間的遺傳差異與

  • to the phenotypic differences between them.

    到它們之間的表型差異。

  • The genes of the seeds are related to the height

    種子的基因與高度有關

  • of the flowers.

    的花。

  • But that doesn't allow us to make the leap

    但這並不允許我們進行跳躍式的發展

  • that differences between groups

    群體之間的差異

  • that have experienced

    經歷過的

  • really different environmental legacies are due to genetics.

    真正不同的環境遺留問題是由於遺傳造成的。

- There's this classic thought experiment

- 有這樣一個經典的思想實驗

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