Name: Michael Burry:一切的保麗龍即將破裂 (Michael Burry: The Everything Bubble is About to IMPLODE)
Uploaded: 2022-11-01T20:05:55.000Z
Duration: 9 min 26 s

情態副詞

Michael Barry literally sold all of his talks except for one.

邁克爾-巴里實際上賣掉了他所有的講座，除了一個。

What do you think is the reason the mother of all crushes is about to burst and take down with the entire market.

你認為是什麼原因導致所有粉碎之母即將破裂，並與整個市場一起被擊垮。

He also called it the greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things.

他還稱這是有史以來所有事物中最偉大的投機保麗龍。

Last year, his portfolio consisted of 11 stocks worth over $165 million.

去年，他的投資組合包括11只股票，價值超過1.65億美元。

But Q3 filings show that he has sold more than a third of his portfolio using his portfolio to a little over $42 million dollars comprising of just six stocks.

但第三季度的文件顯示，他已經賣出了超過三分之一的投資組合，使用他的投資組合為4200萬美元多一點，僅包括六隻股票。

If he was just a random guy, I would not give him much attention.

如果他只是一個隨機的人，我不會給他太多的關注。

But Michael Burry isn't your typical investor back during the dot com bubble.

但邁克爾-伯裡並不是網絡保麗龍時期的典型投資者。

He predicted the crash and bet against the market making millions of dollars, purchased a stake in Gamestop before it went viral, bankrupting hedge funds that shorted stock, but that's not what made him so popular.

他預測了崩盤並與市場對賭，賺取了數百萬美元，在Gamestop走紅之前購買了其股份，使做空股票的對沖基金破產，但這並不是使他如此受歡迎的原因。

His biggest move was back during the housing crush.

他最大的舉動要追溯到住房擠兌時期。

After analyzing the market, he saw a bubble that was about to burst.

在分析了市場之後，他看到了一個即將破滅的保麗龍。

So he bet everything against the housing market, which at the time people thought he was stupid.

所以他把一切都押在了房地產市場上，當時人們認為他很愚蠢。

But as it always happens, the bubble burst and Barry made a fortune both for himself and his clients.

但正如它總是發生的那樣，保麗龍破滅了，巴里為他自己和他的客戶都發了財。

So if Michael Barrett sees the bubble, there is a good chance that a bubble is forming.

是以，如果邁克爾-巴雷特看到了保麗龍，很有可能保麗龍正在形成。

You don't have to be a genius to understand that Fed's actions in recent years caused the bubble.

你不必是個天才就能明白，美聯儲近年來的行動造成了保麗龍。

It is just a bubble in one particular industry, the bubble is formed in everything.

這只是一個特定行業的保麗龍，保麗龍是在所有的地方形成的。

House prices are up by almost 50% in two year.

Kryptos are hyped and worth trillions of dollars without really adding any real value to the market stocks, doubled in price is due to access to cheap money.

加密貨幣被炒作，價值數萬億美元，卻沒有真正為市場股票增加任何實際價值，價格翻倍是由於獲得了廉價的資金。

The entire market is turned into one giant bubble or as Michael Barry calls it the greatest bubble of all time.

整個市場變成了一個巨大的保麗龍，或者像邁克爾-巴里所說的那樣，是有史以來最大的保麗龍。

We still have no idea when it will burst or how, but we know for sure that it will be painful.

我們仍然不知道它何時會爆裂或如何爆裂，但我們肯定知道它將是痛苦的。

So let's find out which talks billionaires are selling what kind of assets to billionaires hold during these uncertain times.

是以，讓我們看看在這個不確定的時期，哪些會談的億萬富翁正在出售億萬富翁持有的什麼樣的資產。

And when will the mother of all crushes First.

什麼時候所有的暗戀者的母親都會先。

We'll answer for all of these questions and many more.

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題。

But before we do that, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive in.

但在這之前，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們深入瞭解一下。

Since the second half of 2021 billionaires have been massively selling stocks.

自2021年下半年以來，億萬富翁一直在大規模地拋售股票。

They were right because the market actually crushed.

他們是對的，因為市場實際上已經粉碎了。

The only problem is that that is not the end.

唯一的問題是，這並不是終點。

Google founders, Larry page and Sergey brin sold around $1.8 billion worth of stocks.

谷歌創始人拉里-佩奇和謝爾蓋-布林出售了價值約18億美元的股票。

Jeff Bezos is the world's second richest person has sold more than $9 billion in amazon stock.

傑夫-貝佐斯是世界第二大富豪，他已經賣出了超過90億美元的亞馬遜股票。

Ellen Mosque world's richest person sold around $12.7 billion worth of Tesla shares, America's billionaires have sold $43 billion $20 billion 2020 according to Bloomberg Warren Buffett is sitting on a stockpile of cash worth over $30 billion.

艾倫-莫斯克世界首富賣出了價值約127億美元的特斯拉股票，美國的億萬富翁已經賣出了430億200億美元2020據彭博社報道，沃倫-巴菲特正坐在價值超過300億美元的現金儲備上。

Even though we have almost double-digit inflation It is true that it is not as much as last year since he has invested a lot into oil and gas since the energy sector is booming now, oil companies are making some of the highest profits ever.

即使我們有幾乎兩位數的通貨膨脹率，但確實沒有去年那麼多，因為他對石油和天然氣進行了大量投資，因為現在能源行業正在蓬勃發展，石油公司正在賺取一些有史以來的最高利潤。

That will probably continue for another year or so.

這種情況可能會再持續一年左右。

But $30 billion dollars is still a lot of money.

但300億美元仍然是一個很大的數字。

But why aren't there investing that cash isn't holding stocks better than cash?

但是，為什麼沒有人投資，現金不是比現金更好地持有股票？

You see a dollar today worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

你看到今天的一美元比明天的一美元更有價值。

And making money is the most important aspect of any business.

而賺錢是任何企業最重要的方面。

Of course, you can make whatever argument you want that the purpose of the businesses to build quality products, make the world a better place, fill the blank however you want.

當然，你可以提出任何論據，說企業的目的是製造高質量的產品，使世界變得更美好，不管你想怎麼填空。

But at the end of the day, investors, primary concern is money.

但在一天結束時，投資者，主要關注的是錢。

So the financial aspect is the most important one.

是以，財務方面是最重要的一個。

If a business makes money now, it is worth a lot more than a business that will make money in the future.

如果一個企業現在能賺錢，它的價值就會比未來能賺錢的企業高很多。

You can take that money invested somewhere else and make more money.

你可以把這些錢投資到別的地方，賺更多的錢。

So if we want to find out the value of future cash flow, we have to find its NPV and how much the future profits will worth today, there's a pretty simple formula that we call DCF discounted cash flow.

是以，如果我們想找出未來現金流的價值，我們必須找到它的淨現值，以及未來的利潤將值多少錢，今天有一個相當簡單的公式，我們稱之為DCF現金流折現。

The formula is one divided by one plus interest rate.

計算公式是1除以1再加上利率。

Is the year for the sake of simplification.

Let's say that their interest rate is 5% which will be our discounted rate, let's say a business makes $10 million over the course of the next five years or $2 million each year.

假設他們的利率是5%，這將是我們的貼現率，假設一個企業在未來五年內賺了1000萬美元，或者每年200萬美元。

If we apply our formula, the $2 million that the company will earn.

如果我們運用我們的公式，公司將獲得的200萬美元。

12 not from now is worth $1.9 million in the next $2 million.02 years from now will worth $1.8 million.

12不從現在是價值190萬美元的未來200萬美元.02年從現在將價值180萬美元。

The third one point 7/4 1.64 the 5th 1.56 all in millions.

第三個點7/4 1.64，第五個點1.56，都是百萬。

If we add them up we will have a total value of approximately $8.6 million.

如果我們把它們加起來，我們將有大約860萬美元的總價值。

是以，該公司可能會賺取1000萬美元。

But because it's five years from now, it is real worth is $8.6 million.

但因為是五年後，它的實際價值是860萬美元。

So when the Fed raises the rates, what happens to that discounted rate it rises which makes future cash flow less valuable than today, which pushes stock prices to plummet especially tech stocks that are often focused on making a lot of money in the future.

是以，當美聯儲提高利率時，該貼現率會發生什麼，它會上升，這使得未來的現金流不如今天有價值，這推動了股票價格暴跌，特別是科技股，它們往往專注於在未來賺大錢。

After gaining market share At the time of me writing the script, interest rates are about to 25% to 2.5% but inflation is still high, it's around 9% and Jay Paul is shouting that he will do whatever it takes to bring inflation to a sustainable rate of 2-3%.

在獲得市場份額之後 在我寫劇本的時候，利率即將達到25%到2.5%，但通貨膨脹率仍然很高，大約是9%，而傑-保羅正在喊話，他將不惜一切代價使通貨膨脹率達到2-3%的可持續水準。

Maybe it will be like it was back in the 19 seventies and what does that mean?

也許會像19世紀70年代那樣，這意味著什麼呢？

Future cash flow will become significantly less valuable, which means companies will become less valuable, which means stocks will crush.

未來的現金流將大大降低價值，這意味著公司將變得不那麼有價值，這意味著股票將崩潰。

Of course the businesses that will put money on the table now will flourish.

當然，現在會把錢放在桌子上的企業會蓬勃發展。

But if we're talking about tech companies like Tesla google and meta, their bet is always in the future and it's not going to be just another crush, 80% of all money was printed between 2020 and 2021 it didn't just create enormous inflation but bubbles across all industries, we have a crypto bubble, real estate bubble, stock market bubble, you name it, that's why Barry firmly believes that the greatest crush is underway and that's why he and other billionaires are selling as many stocks as they can.

但是，如果我們談論的是像特斯拉谷歌和元老級的科技公司，他們的賭注總是在未來，這不會是另一次擠壓，80%的錢是在2020年和2021年之間印製的，它不僅僅是創造了巨大的通貨膨脹，而是所有行業的保麗龍，我們有一個加密貨幣保麗龍，房地產保麗龍，股市保麗龍，你的名字，這就是為什麼巴里堅信，最大的擠壓正在進行，這就是為什麼他和其他億萬富翁正在儘可能多地出售股票。

They can't sell everything overnight because that will create an oversupply in the market and crush the market anyways, so no one wants to see that on top of that a crush doesn't mean the end of the world.

他們不可能一夜之間把所有的東西都賣掉，因為這將在市場上造成供過於求，無論如何都會壓垮市場，所以沒有人願意看到，除此之外，壓垮並不意味著世界末日的到來。

It just means that you have to wait a few years before practice climb back After the 2008 crash.

這只是意味著，在2008年的崩潰之後，你必須等待幾年後再進行實踐爬升。

Within five years, prices rose back to the 2007 peak.

在五年內，價格回升到2007年的峰值。

So whoever purchased a property even at the peak of the housing bubble profited by 2022 time heals everything.

是以，無論誰在房地產保麗龍的高峰期購買房產，都會在2022年之前獲利，時間可以治癒一切。

But it's only resource, but it's only resource.

但這只是資源，但這只是資源。

The only stock that Michael barry didn't sell is G or group, a public company that invests in private prisons and mental health facilities in North America, Australia, South Africa and the United Kingdom.

邁克爾-巴里唯一沒有出售的股票是G或集團，這是一家在北美、澳洲、南非和英國投資於私人監獄和精神健康設施的上市公司。

這並沒有給人帶來很大的希望。

Like barry is confident only about one thing people will keep going to jails, especially when the mother of all bubbles crushes Michael barry is more of a trader than a long term investor.

就像巴里只對一件事有信心一樣，人們會不斷入獄，特別是當所有保麗龍之母粉碎時，邁克爾-巴里更像是一個交易員，而不是一個長期投資者。

Tesla made money on Gamestop and actively trade stocks, which is not an option for most people to fall A buffet methodology is way more practical for your average fork.

特斯拉在Gamestop上賺了錢，並積極進行股票交易，這對大多數人來說不是一個選項，以落 A自助餐方法對你的普通叉子來說更實用。

He has invested in companies that are making money now.

Companies that can raise their prices regarding of the crisis such as oil and gas companies, necessities like iphones or macbooks or undervalued banks such as Ally Financial as we have previously mentioned on the channel.

那些可以在危機中提高價格的公司，如石油和天然氣公司，像蘋果手機或Macbook這樣的必需品，或被低估的銀行，如我們之前在頻道中提到的Ally Financial。

The entire world is suffering from inflation but oil conglomerates and cheap manufacturers are making fortunes.

整個世界都在遭受通貨膨脹，但石油集團和廉價製造商卻在發財。