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  • - The brain is only the organ with which we think; we think.

    - 大腦只是我們思考的器官;我們思考。

  • Its job is not to win Nobel prizes and to pass math tests.

    它的工作不是為了贏得諾貝爾獎和通過數學考試。

  • Its job is to get us to tomorrow.

    它的工作是把我們帶到明天。

  • It's a survival machine,

    這是一個生存機器。

  • and it plays a lot of tricks with the facts

    它對事實玩了很多花招

  • in order to get us to tomorrow.

    以使我們到達明天。

  • That worked pretty well

    效果很好

  • when the risks were lions and tigers and bears

    當風險是獅子、老虎和熊的時候

  • and the dark, oh, my.

    和黑暗,哦,我的。

  • It's not as good now when we need to rationalize

    現在,當我們需要合理化的時候,它就不那麼好了

  • and reason and use the facts more

    和理智,多用事實說話

  • with the complicated risks we face in a modern age.

    應對我們在現代所面臨的複雜風險。

  • Climate change and genetically modified food

    氣候變化和轉基因食品

  • and unsustainable living on the planet,

    和不可持續的生活在這個星球上。

  • that takes a lot more thinking.

    這需要更多的思考。

  • We'd better accept that and understand it

    我們最好接受並理解這一點

  • so that we can apply that in order to avoid the pitfalls

    這樣,我們就可以應用它,以避免陷阱。

  • of our subjective way of perceiving the world.

    我們感知世界的主觀方式。

  • - It's quite a robust thinking system

    - 這是一個相當強大的思維繫統

  • that we've got between our ears, but what's going to happen,

    我們耳濡目染,但會發生什麼。

  • and has been happening for several millennia now,

    而且已經發生了幾千年了。

  • is we're gonna develop more and better-thinking tools,

    是我們要開發更多、更好的思考工具。

  • and we're going to identify more weaknesses

    而且我們要找出更多的弱點

  • in our rationality.

    在我們的理性中。

  • A weakness identified is

    發現的一個弱點是

  • at least something that can be avoided to some degree.

    至少在某種程度上是可以避免的。

  • We can learn workarounds.

    我們可以學習變通方法。

  • We can recognize that we're suckers

    我們可以認識到我們是吸血者

  • for certain sorts of bad ideas

    對某些壞主意

  • and, alerted to that, we can flag them when they come up.

    並提醒我們,當它們出現時,我們可以標記它們。

  • - There's one way to be rational.

    - 有一種方法是理性的。

  • There are many ways to be irrational.

    有很多方法可以做到不理性。

  • We could be irrational by getting confused,

    我們可能會因為迷惑而失去理智。

  • not taking actions,

    不採取行動。

  • being myopic, vindictive, emotional, you name it.

    近視、報復性、情緒化,你說什麼就是什麼。

  • There's lots of ways to be wrong,

    有很多方法可以做錯。

  • and because of that, there's not one way

    正因為如此,沒有一種方法

  • to fix it, but one interesting way

    來解決這個問題,但有一個有趣的方法

  • to try and inject some rationality is

    試圖注入一些合理性是

  • to think from an outsider's perspective.

    從局外人的角度來思考。

  • Here's what happens-

    發生的情況是這樣的--

  • When you think about your own life,

    當你考慮到你自己的生活。

  • you're trapped within your own perspective,

    你被困在你自己的視角中。

  • you're trapped within your own emotions

    你被困在自己的情緒中

  • and feelings and so on, but if you give advice

    和感受等等,但如果你提出建議

  • to somebody else, all of a sudden, you're not trapped

    對別人來說,突然間,你就不會被困住了。

  • within that emotional, combination, mishmash complexity,

    在這種情感、組合、混雜的複雜性中。

  • and you can give advice that is more forward-looking

    而且你可以給出更有前瞻性的建議

  • and not so specific to the emotions.

    而不是那麼具體的情感。

  • One idea is to basically ask people for advice.

    一個想法是基本上向人們徵求意見。

  • So if you're falling in love with some person,

    是以,如果你愛上了某個人。

  • good advice is to go to your mother and say,

    好的建議是去找你的母親並說。

  • "Mother, what do you think about the long-term

    "母親,你對長期的發展有什麼看法?

  • "compatibility of that person?"

    "那個人的兼容性?"

  • You're infatuated, right, when you're infatuated,

    你很迷戀,對,當你迷戀的時候。

  • you're not able to see things three months down the road.

    你不能夠看到三個月後的事情。

  • You're saying, "I'm infatuated.

    你在說,"我很迷戀。

  • "I'll stay infatuated forever, this will never go away."

    "我將永遠迷戀下去,這將永遠不會消失。"

  • Your mother, being an outsider, is not infatuated,

    你的母親,作為一個局外人,並不迷戀。

  • and she could probably look at things

    她也許能看清事情的真相

  • like long-term compatibility and so on.

    如長期兼容性等。

  • - We stick with a business plan or a career

    - 我們堅持一個商業計劃或一個職業

  • or a relationship long after it's become quite clear

    或在相當明確的情況下的一種關係

  • that it's not doing anything for us

    它沒有為我們做任何事情

  • or that it's actively destructive or self-destructive.

    或者說,它是積極的破壞性或自我毀滅。

  • We have an irrational commitment

    我們有一個非理性的承諾

  • to whatever we have been doing

    對我們所做的一切

  • for a while, 'cause we don't like the idea

    有一段時間了,因為我們不喜歡這個想法

  • of our past investment having gone to waste

    我們過去的投資已經浪費了

  • or because it's become part of our identity.

    或者因為它已經成為我們身份的一部分。

  • - Our brain is hardwired,

    - 我們的大腦是硬性規定的。

  • and the chemistry of the brain guarantees

    和大腦的化學保證

  • that we feel first and think second.

    我們先有感覺,後有思考。

  • That's initially when we encounter information,

    這就是最初我們遇到資訊的時候。

  • but in an ongoing basis between the facts

    但是,在一個持續的基礎上,在事實之間

  • and the feelings in our brain,

    和我們大腦中的感覺。

  • the feelings carry more weight.

    感受更有分量。

  • They feel wonderful, but they might be wrong.

    他們感覺很好,但他們可能是錯的。

  • Recognizing that they might be wrong,

    認識到他們可能是錯的。

  • here's what you can do-

    你可以這樣做

  • Take more time.

    多花點時間。

  • If the brain jumps to conclusions out of emotion first,

    如果大腦首先出於情感而跳出結論。

  • just assume that your first decision might not be

    只是假設你的第一個決定可能不是

  • the most informed one.

    最知情的人。

  • Don't leap to conclusions.

    不要急於下結論。

  • Take more time, a half an hour, an hour, a day, two.

    多花點時間,半小時、一小時、一天、兩天。

  • Think about it, cogitate on it, get more information.

    想一想,琢磨琢磨,獲得更多資訊。

  • Get more information, not just from sources

    獲得更多的資訊,而不僅僅是從消息來源獲得

  • who already tell you what you know and believe,

    他們已經告訴你你所知道和相信的東西。

  • because that's gonna reinforce what you know,

    因為那會加強你所知道的。

  • which will feel great but may not add to your knowledge.

    這將感覺很好,但可能不會增加你的知識。

  • Take more time and get more information,

    花更多時間,獲得更多資訊。

  • and that allows that information

    並允許該資訊

  • and the facts side of this dual system

    和這個雙系統的事實方面

  • to play more of a role.

    以發揮更大的作用。

  • - I'd like to introduce you

    - 我想向你介紹

  • to a particularly powerful paradigm

    到一個特別強大的範式

  • for thinking, called Bayes' rule.

    用於思考,稱為貝葉斯法則。

  • Bayes' rule is provably the best way

    事實證明,貝葉斯法則是最好的方法

  • to think about evidence.

    來思考證據問題。

  • Many people, certainly including myself,

    許多人,當然包括我自己。

  • have this default way of approaching the world,

    有這種接近世界的默認方式。

  • in which we have our pre-existing beliefs,

    在其中,我們有我們預先存在的信念。

  • and we go through the world, and we pretty much stick

    我們走過這個世界,而且我們幾乎堅持

  • to our beliefs, unless we encounter evidence

    我們的信念,除非我們遇到的證據

  • that's so overwhelmingly inconsistent

    矛盾重重

  • with our beliefs about the world that it forces us

    與我們對世界的信念,它迫使我們

  • to change our mind and, you know, adopt a new theory

    改變我們的想法,你知道,採用一種新的理論

  • of how the world works,

    的世界是如何運作的。

  • and sometimes even then, we don't do it.

    有時即使這樣,我們也不去做。

  • The implicit question that I'm asking myself,

    我在問自己的隱含問題。

  • that people ask themselves as they go through the world,

    人們在穿越世界時問自己。

  • is, "When I see new evidence,

    是,"當我看到新的證據。

  • can this be explained with my theory?"

    這能用我的理論來解釋嗎?"

  • And if yes, then we stop there,

    如果是,那我們就到此為止。

  • but after you've got some familiarity with Bayes' rule,

    但在你對貝葉斯法則有了一定的熟悉之後。

  • what you start doing is, instead of stopping

    你開始做的是,而不是停止

  • after asking yourself, "Can this evidence be explained

    在問過自己之後,"這個證據可以解釋嗎?

  • with my own pet theory?"

    與我自己的寵物理論?"

  • You also ask, "Would it be explained better

    你還問,"是否可以更好地解釋

  • with some other theory,

    與其他一些理論。

  • or maybe just as well with some other theory?

    或者用其他理論也可以?

  • Is this actually evidence for my theory?"

    這實際上是我的理論的證據嗎?"

  • Bayes' rule is essentially a formalization

    貝葉斯法則本質上是一種形式化的方法

  • of the best way to reason about evidence,

    對證據進行推理的最佳方式。

  • the best way to change your mind

    改變主意的最佳方法

  • or update your confidence in your beliefs

    或更新你對自己信仰的信心

  • when you encounter new information or have new experiences.

    當你遇到新的資訊或有新的經驗時。

  • - I think that process of self-knowledge

    - 我認為這個自我認識的過程

  • and self-purification will continue to develop.

    和自我淨化將繼續發展。

  • So it's not so much, although it might include,

    所以它不是那麼多,雖然可能包括。

  • the development of actual software technology

    實際軟件技術的發展

  • to help us think.

    來幫助我們思考。

  • That's part of it, but also just the self-knowledge

    這是它的一部分,但也只是自我認識的一部分

  • that alerts us to foibles, blind spots in our own thinking.

    這提醒我們注意自己思維中的缺陷和盲點。

  • - My fellow psychologists,

    - 我的心理學同行。

  • philosophers, neuroscientists often argue

    哲學家、神經科學家們經常認為

  • that we're prisoners of the emotions,

    我們是情緒的囚犯。

  • that we're fundamentally and profoundly irrational,

    我們從根本上是深刻的非理性的。

  • and that reason plays very little role

    而理由所起的作用非常小

  • in our everyday lives.

    在我們的日常生活中。

  • I honestly don't doubt that that's right in the short-term,

    老實說,我並不懷疑這在短期內是正確的。

  • but I think in the long run, over time,

    但我認為從長遠來看,隨著時間的推移。

  • reason and rationality tends to win out.

    理由和理性往往會勝出。

  • I look at the world we're in now,

    我看了看我們現在的世界。

  • and for all of its many flaws and problems, I see signs

    儘管它有許多缺陷和問題,但我看到有跡象表明

  • of those moral accomplishments all over the place.

    的那些道德上的成就都在這裡。

  • We have a broader moral circle.

    我們有一個更廣泛的道德圈。

  • There's a lot of explanation for these changes,

    對這些變化有很多解釋。

  • but I think one key component has been exercise of reason,

    但我認為一個關鍵因素是行使理性。

  • and I'm optimistic we'll continue this in the future.

    而且我很樂觀,我們將在未來繼續這樣做。

- The brain is only the organ with which we think; we think.

- 大腦只是我們思考的器官;我們思考。

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