Its job is not to win Nobel prizes and to pass math tests.

它的工作不是為了贏得諾貝爾獎和通過數學考試。

Its job is to get us to tomorrow.

它的工作是把我們帶到明天。

It's a survival machine,

這是一個生存機器。

and it plays a lot of tricks with the facts

它對事實玩了很多花招

in order to get us to tomorrow.

以使我們到達明天。

That worked pretty well

效果很好

when the risks were lions and tigers and bears

當風險是獅子、老虎和熊的時候

and the dark, oh, my.

和黑暗，哦，我的。

It's not as good now when we need to rationalize

現在，當我們需要合理化的時候，它就不那麼好了

and reason and use the facts more

和理智，多用事實說話

with the complicated risks we face in a modern age.

應對我們在現代所面臨的複雜風險。

Climate change and genetically modified food

氣候變化和轉基因食品

and unsustainable living on the planet,

和不可持續的生活在這個星球上。

that takes a lot more thinking.

這需要更多的思考。

We'd better accept that and understand it

我們最好接受並理解這一點

so that we can apply that in order to avoid the pitfalls

這樣，我們就可以應用它，以避免陷阱。

of our subjective way of perceiving the world.

我們感知世界的主觀方式。

- It's quite a robust thinking system

- 這是一個相當強大的思維繫統

that we've got between our ears, but what's going to happen,

我們耳濡目染，但會發生什麼。

and has been happening for several millennia now,

而且已經發生了幾千年了。

is we're gonna develop more and better-thinking tools,

是我們要開發更多、更好的思考工具。

and we're going to identify more weaknesses

而且我們要找出更多的弱點

in our rationality.

在我們的理性中。

A weakness identified is

發現的一個弱點是

at least something that can be avoided to some degree.

至少在某種程度上是可以避免的。

We can learn workarounds.

我們可以學習變通方法。

We can recognize that we're suckers

我們可以認識到我們是吸血者

for certain sorts of bad ideas

對某些壞主意

and, alerted to that, we can flag them when they come up.

並提醒我們，當它們出現時，我們可以標記它們。

- There's one way to be rational.

- 有一種方法是理性的。

There are many ways to be irrational.

有很多方法可以做到不理性。

We could be irrational by getting confused,

我們可能會因為迷惑而失去理智。

not taking actions,

不採取行動。

being myopic, vindictive, emotional, you name it.

近視、報復性、情緒化，你說什麼就是什麼。

There's lots of ways to be wrong,

有很多方法可以做錯。

and because of that, there's not one way

正因為如此，沒有一種方法

to fix it, but one interesting way

來解決這個問題，但有一個有趣的方法

to try and inject some rationality is

試圖注入一些合理性是

to think from an outsider's perspective.

從局外人的角度來思考。

Here's what happens-

發生的情況是這樣的--

When you think about your own life,

當你考慮到你自己的生活。

you're trapped within your own perspective,

你被困在你自己的視角中。

you're trapped within your own emotions

你被困在自己的情緒中

and feelings and so on, but if you give advice

和感受等等，但如果你提出建議

to somebody else, all of a sudden, you're not trapped

對別人來說，突然間，你就不會被困住了。

within that emotional, combination, mishmash complexity,

在這種情感、組合、混雜的複雜性中。

and you can give advice that is more forward-looking

而且你可以給出更有前瞻性的建議

and not so specific to the emotions.

而不是那麼具體的情感。

One idea is to basically ask people for advice.

一個想法是基本上向人們徵求意見。

So if you're falling in love with some person,

是以，如果你愛上了某個人。

good advice is to go to your mother and say,

好的建議是去找你的母親並說。

"Mother, what do you think about the long-term

"母親，你對長期的發展有什麼看法？

"compatibility of that person?"

"那個人的兼容性？"

You're infatuated, right, when you're infatuated,

你很迷戀，對，當你迷戀的時候。

you're not able to see things three months down the road.

你不能夠看到三個月後的事情。

You're saying, "I'm infatuated.

你在說，"我很迷戀。

"I'll stay infatuated forever, this will never go away."

"我將永遠迷戀下去，這將永遠不會消失。"

Your mother, being an outsider, is not infatuated,

你的母親，作為一個局外人，並不迷戀。

and she could probably look at things

她也許能看清事情的真相

like long-term compatibility and so on.

如長期兼容性等。

- We stick with a business plan or a career

- 我們堅持一個商業計劃或一個職業

or a relationship long after it's become quite clear

或在相當明確的情況下的一種關係

that it's not doing anything for us

它沒有為我們做任何事情

or that it's actively destructive or self-destructive.

或者說，它是積極的破壞性或自我毀滅。

We have an irrational commitment

我們有一個非理性的承諾

to whatever we have been doing

對我們所做的一切

for a while, 'cause we don't like the idea

有一段時間了，因為我們不喜歡這個想法

of our past investment having gone to waste

我們過去的投資已經浪費了

or because it's become part of our identity.

或者因為它已經成為我們身份的一部分。

- Our brain is hardwired,

- 我們的大腦是硬性規定的。

and the chemistry of the brain guarantees

和大腦的化學保證

that we feel first and think second.

我們先有感覺，後有思考。

That's initially when we encounter information,

這就是最初我們遇到資訊的時候。

but in an ongoing basis between the facts

但是，在一個持續的基礎上，在事實之間

and the feelings in our brain,

和我們大腦中的感覺。

the feelings carry more weight.

感受更有分量。

They feel wonderful, but they might be wrong.

他們感覺很好，但他們可能是錯的。

Recognizing that they might be wrong,

認識到他們可能是錯的。

here's what you can do-

你可以這樣做

Take more time.

多花點時間。

If the brain jumps to conclusions out of emotion first,

如果大腦首先出於情感而跳出結論。

just assume that your first decision might not be

只是假設你的第一個決定可能不是

the most informed one.

最知情的人。

Don't leap to conclusions.

不要急於下結論。

Take more time, a half an hour, an hour, a day, two.

多花點時間，半小時、一小時、一天、兩天。

Think about it, cogitate on it, get more information.

想一想，琢磨琢磨，獲得更多資訊。

Get more information, not just from sources

獲得更多的資訊，而不僅僅是從消息來源獲得

who already tell you what you know and believe,

他們已經告訴你你所知道和相信的東西。

because that's gonna reinforce what you know,

因為那會加強你所知道的。

which will feel great but may not add to your knowledge.

這將感覺很好，但可能不會增加你的知識。

Take more time and get more information,

花更多時間，獲得更多資訊。

and that allows that information

並允許該資訊

and the facts side of this dual system

和這個雙系統的事實方面

to play more of a role.

以發揮更大的作用。

- I'd like to introduce you

- 我想向你介紹

to a particularly powerful paradigm

到一個特別強大的範式

for thinking, called Bayes' rule.

用於思考，稱為貝葉斯法則。

Bayes' rule is provably the best way

事實證明，貝葉斯法則是最好的方法

to think about evidence.

來思考證據問題。

Many people, certainly including myself,

許多人，當然包括我自己。

have this default way of approaching the world,

有這種接近世界的默認方式。

in which we have our pre-existing beliefs,

在其中，我們有我們預先存在的信念。

and we go through the world, and we pretty much stick

我們走過這個世界，而且我們幾乎堅持

to our beliefs, unless we encounter evidence

我們的信念，除非我們遇到的證據

that's so overwhelmingly inconsistent

矛盾重重

with our beliefs about the world that it forces us

與我們對世界的信念，它迫使我們

to change our mind and, you know, adopt a new theory

改變我們的想法，你知道，採用一種新的理論

of how the world works,

的世界是如何運作的。

and sometimes even then, we don't do it.

有時即使這樣，我們也不去做。

The implicit question that I'm asking myself,

我在問自己的隱含問題。

that people ask themselves as they go through the world,

人們在穿越世界時問自己。

is, "When I see new evidence,

是，"當我看到新的證據。

can this be explained with my theory?"

這能用我的理論來解釋嗎？"

And if yes, then we stop there,

如果是，那我們就到此為止。

but after you've got some familiarity with Bayes' rule,

但在你對貝葉斯法則有了一定的熟悉之後。

what you start doing is, instead of stopping

你開始做的是，而不是停止

after asking yourself, "Can this evidence be explained

在問過自己之後，"這個證據可以解釋嗎？

with my own pet theory?"

與我自己的寵物理論？"

You also ask, "Would it be explained better

你還問，"是否可以更好地解釋

with some other theory,

與其他一些理論。

or maybe just as well with some other theory?

或者用其他理論也可以？

Is this actually evidence for my theory?"

這實際上是我的理論的證據嗎？"

Bayes' rule is essentially a formalization

貝葉斯法則本質上是一種形式化的方法

of the best way to reason about evidence,

對證據進行推理的最佳方式。

the best way to change your mind

改變主意的最佳方法

or update your confidence in your beliefs

或更新你對自己信仰的信心

when you encounter new information or have new experiences.

當你遇到新的資訊或有新的經驗時。

- I think that process of self-knowledge

- 我認為這個自我認識的過程

and self-purification will continue to develop.

和自我淨化將繼續發展。

So it's not so much, although it might include,

所以它不是那麼多，雖然可能包括。

the development of actual software technology

實際軟件技術的發展

to help us think.

來幫助我們思考。

That's part of it, but also just the self-knowledge

這是它的一部分，但也只是自我認識的一部分

that alerts us to foibles, blind spots in our own thinking.

這提醒我們注意自己思維中的缺陷和盲點。

- My fellow psychologists,

- 我的心理學同行。

philosophers, neuroscientists often argue

哲學家、神經科學家們經常認為

that we're prisoners of the emotions,

我們是情緒的囚犯。

that we're fundamentally and profoundly irrational,

我們從根本上是深刻的非理性的。

and that reason plays very little role

而理由所起的作用非常小

in our everyday lives.

在我們的日常生活中。

I honestly don't doubt that that's right in the short-term,

老實說，我並不懷疑這在短期內是正確的。

but I think in the long run, over time,

但我認為從長遠來看，隨著時間的推移。

reason and rationality tends to win out.

理由和理性往往會勝出。

I look at the world we're in now,

我看了看我們現在的世界。

and for all of its many flaws and problems, I see signs

儘管它有許多缺陷和問題，但我看到有跡象表明

of those moral accomplishments all over the place.

的那些道德上的成就都在這裡。

We have a broader moral circle.

我們有一個更廣泛的道德圈。

There's a lot of explanation for these changes,

對這些變化有很多解釋。

but I think one key component has been exercise of reason,

但我認為一個關鍵因素是行使理性。

and I'm optimistic we'll continue this in the future.

而且我很樂觀，我們將在未來繼續這樣做。