Name: 2022年的市場崩盤--為什麼一切都在下跌？ (The 2022 Market Crash - Why is Everything Down?)
Uploaded: 2022-11-01T18:22:40.000Z
Duration: 8 min 40 s

It finally happened! Everyone thought that the fed is  

它終於發生了!每個人都認為，美聯儲是

轉承詞

laughing and it wouldn't raise rates! Because at this point it was clear that  

笑了，而且不會提高利率!因為在這一點上，很明顯

情態副詞

raising rates will only create a recession.  The world is still suffering from the pandemic.  

提高利率只會造成經濟衰退。  世界仍在遭受大流行病的影響。  

Entire cities in China are a lockdown which is  causing a shortage of products in the market.  

中國的整個城市都處於封鎖狀態，導致市場上的產品短缺。  

The fed was willing to swallow an 8 percent  inflation instead of stopping the economic  

美聯儲願意吞下8%的通貨膨脹，而不是停止經濟發展。

wheel. However, the absolute opposite  has happened. No one expected the fed  

輪子。然而，絕對相反的情況發生了。沒有人想到，美聯儲

to raise the rates by 0.5 percent. It's the biggest spike in 22 years.  

將利率提高0.5%。這是22年來的最大一次飆升。  

The only reason that it probably did that is  that inflation was seriously getting out of hand. 

它可能這樣做的唯一原因是，通貨膨脹嚴重失控。

Inflation is not a joke. Take a look at  countries who didn't take inflation seriously.  

通貨膨脹不是一個玩笑。看看那些沒有認真對待通貨膨脹的國家吧。  

They have destoryed their economies from  Weimar republic in 1920s to Veneziella in 2013.  

從20世紀20年代的魏瑪共和國到2013年的委內瑞拉，他們的經濟都遭到了破壞。  

But the worst one was in Hungary in 1946 right  after the second world war. At some point  

但最糟糕的一次是在第二次世界大戰後的1946年在匈牙利。在某些時候

inflation reached 13,600,000,000,000,000%, that's  a lot of zeros. Prices doubled every 15.6 hours.  

通貨膨脹率達到13,600,000,000,000%，這是個很大的零頭。價格每15.6小時翻一番。  

Imagine your Starbucks coffee more than doubles  every morning. How would you set prices, salaries,  

想象一下，你的星巴克咖啡每天早上都會增加一倍以上。你會如何制定價格，工資。

or taxes? The economy stops functioning, people  lose faith in the currency. They start bartering,  

或稅收？經濟停止運轉，人們對貨幣失去信心。他們開始以物易物。

exchanging goods for goods since no one knows  how much the currency would be worth tomorrow.  

以物易物，因為沒有人知道貨幣明天會值多少錢。  

If you owned a business, would you sell candy for  a dollar or two? how do you save money? There are  

如果你擁有一個企業，你會以一美元或兩美元的價格出售糖果嗎？你如何節省資金？有

millions of questions that need to be answered. Your savings by the next day would lose half of  

數以百萬計的問題需要回答。你的儲蓄到第二天就會損失一半的

their value. I mean, if an 8 percent inflation  rate already caused such a big problem. 

他們的價值。我的意思是，如果8%的通貨膨脹率已經造成了這麼大的問題。

Imagine what happens if it's just over  a 100 percent, leave alone with so many  

想象一下，如果只是超過百分之百會發生什麼，更不用說有這麼多的

zeros (13,600,000,000,000,000%). During the height  of hyperinflation, Hungary's highest denomination  

zeros (13,600,000,000,000,000%).在惡性通貨膨脹的高峰期，匈牙利最高面額的

bill was the 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 (One  Hundred Quintillion) pengo, compared to 1944s  

賬單是100,000,000,000,000,000(一萬億)便士，與1944年相比

highest denomination, 1,000 pengos. So,  it's far better to have a short recession  

最高面額，1,000潘戈。是以，短暫的經濟衰退要好得多

than let inflation get out of hand. The question is - why raising  

而不是讓通貨膨脹失去控制。問題是--為什麼要提高

rates is so important? You see, the modern economy  

費率是如此重要？你看，現代經濟

is entirely based on debt. The fed has absolute  authority over the economy since its the source  

是完全基於債務的。美聯儲對經濟有絕對的權威，因為它是經濟的來源。

of the dollar. It creates the dollar and lends  it to financial institutions such as banks and  

的。它創造了美元，並將其借給金融機構，如銀行和其他機構。

then the banks would lend them to businesses or  individuals in form of mortgages or student loans.  

然後銀行會以抵押貸款或學生貸款的形式將其借給企業或個人。  

The moment the fed raises rates, banks  will have to raise their rates as well  

美聯儲加息之時，銀行也將不得不提高其利率

which will make borrowing more expensive which  means fewer people will be able to borrow money.  

這將使借貸更加昂貴，這意味著能夠借到錢的人將更少。  

With a 50K dollar salary, you are eligible for a  much bigger loan if interest rates are 3 percent  

以5萬美元的工資，如果利率是3%，你有資格獲得更大的貸款。

than at 6 percent. Which means when interest rates  are raised, less money will flow into the economy,  

比6%的時候。這意味著當利率提高時，流入經濟的資金會減少。

which will slow down the economy and vice versa. The economy goes through cycles.  

這將使經濟放緩，反之亦然。經濟會經歷週期。  

It starts with an expansion period, keeps  growing until it peaks somewhere at the top,  

它從一個擴張期開始，不斷增長，直到頂部的某個地方達到高峰。

and then slowly starts cooling down and eventually  

falls into a recession and even a depression in  some cases when the recession lasts too long.

陷入經濟衰退，甚至在某些情況下，當經濟衰退持續時間過長時，會陷入蕭條。

Once it reaches its bottom line, it  starts growing again, it returns back to  

一旦達到底線，它又開始增長，它又回到了

the expansion period until it peaks again,  and the same cycle happens over and over. 

擴張期，直到它再次達到頂峰，同樣的週期反覆發生。

What matters is if the cycle overall keeps moving  upward. A year before the pandemic, the economy  

重要的是週期整體上是否持續向上發展。在大流行病發生的前一年，經濟

has reached its peak, it was just waiting for  something to pull it into a recession which  

已經達到了頂峰，它只是在等待一些東西把它拉入衰退，這

was the pandemic. In fact, it was the longest  economic expansion in the history of the US. The  

是大流行病。事實上，這是美國曆史上最長的一次經濟擴張。在美國曆史上

last recession wasn't as bad as it could possibly  be since the fed went beyond its limit by throwing  

上一次經濟衰退並不像它可能的那樣糟糕，因為美聯儲超越了它的極限，拋出了

literally trillions of dollars into the economy,  the only downside was that we quickly got out of  

準確地說是將數萬億美元投入經濟，唯一的缺點是我們很快就脫離了這個世界。

the crisis and have reached the peak again since  inflation now is growing faster than the economy. 

由於通貨膨脹現在比經濟增長更快，所以在危機中再次達到了高峰。

Haven't you seen how asset prices such  as stocks, houses, or even crypto rose so  

你難道沒有看到股票、房屋、甚至加密貨幣等資產價格是如何上漲的嗎？

dramatically in such a short period of time.  The last 2 years were absolutely heaven for  

在這麼短的時間內就發生了巨大變化。  過去的兩年對我來說絕對是天堂

crypto and tech stocks. I mean some stocks  doubled over such a short period of time.

晶體貨幣和科技股。我的意思是有些股票在這麼短的時間內翻了一番。

And how do we know that we have reached the peak?  Inflation is growing faster than the economy  

而我們怎麼知道我們已經達到了頂峰？  通貨膨脹比經濟增長更快

and getting out of hand. That's why the  fed raised the rates in the first place. 

並逐漸失去控制。這就是為什麼美聯儲一開始就提高了利率。

0.75 percent isn't really super high since  back in 2019 when the economy reached its peak,  

0.75%並不是真正的超高，因為早在2019年經濟達到高峰時。

the fed raised the rates to 2.4 percent. So,  what's going to happen over the course of the next  

美聯儲將利率提高到2.4%。那麼，在接下來的過程中會發生什麼呢？

couple of years is that the fed will most likely  keep raising rates to stabilize the economy.  

幾年來，美聯儲很可能會繼續加息以穩定經濟。  

I guess such an aggressive action from the fed  was to let everyone know that the fed is ready to  

我想，美聯儲如此積極的行動是為了讓大家知道，美聯儲已經做好了準備。

take any necessary action to slow down inflation  and isn't just laughing since most people were  

採取任何必要的行動來減緩通貨膨脹，並不是在笑，因為大多數人都在笑。

confident that it wouldn't dare to do so. And now the question is, how will that  

相信它不敢這樣做。而現在的問題是，這將如何

impact the stock market, real estate, or crypto? The answer is pretty simple and straightforward.  

影響股市、房地產、或加密貨幣？答案是相當簡單和直接的。  

A rise in interest rates will reduce the demand  which will inevitably lead prices to fall.  

利率上升將減少需求，這將不可避免地導致價格下跌。  

Bitcoin is already down by over 9 percent  at the time of this script and it might fall  

在寫這篇稿子時，比特幣已經下跌了9%以上，而且可能會下跌

further by the time the video is out. The sp500  is down by 4 percent and the Dow Jones by 3.4%.  

在視頻出來之前，進一步。sp500指數下降了4%，道瓊斯指數下降了3.4%。  

That doesn't mean they will keep falling but  there is definitely going to be less money flowing  

這並不意味著他們會繼續下跌，但肯定會有更少的資金流向。

into volatile assets such as crypto, or tech  stocks. The stocks that seemed like there are  

進入波動性資產，如加密貨幣，或科技股。看起來有的股票

going to shoot to the moon will begin to  slow down, and the companies that suppose  

將要射向月球的公司將開始放慢速度，而那些認為

to go bankrupt during the pandemic will finally  face the reality where they will have to grow  

在大流行期間破產的公司將最終面臨現實，他們將不得不增長。

without the fed's cheap money. So, it's  absolutely normal to see some stocks to dwindle. 

沒有美聯儲的廉價資金。是以，看到一些股票縮水是絕對正常的。

Will that stop inflation? well, the answer is both yes and now. 

這能阻止通貨膨脹嗎？嗯，答案是肯定的，也是現在。

First of all, that's for sure is going  to impact house prices for example.  

首先，這是肯定的是要影響房價的，比如說。  

Just imagine for a moment what's gonna happen to  mortgage rates. They are going to be so expensive  

試想一下，抵押貸款利率會發生什麼。它們將變得如此昂貴

that people would rather choose to rent than  buy which means prices will begin to fall.  

人們寧願選擇租房而不是買房，這意味著價格將開始下降。  

How much they will fall is remain to be seen. But  a housing crisis to a certain degree is possible,  

他們會下跌多少，還有待觀察。但在某種程度上，住房危機是可能的。

however with such a shortage of houses in the  market, no one really knows what to expect. 

然而，由於市場上的房屋如此短缺，沒有人真正知道該如何期待。

But at the same time, not all inflation  is a result of the fed's actions.  

但同時，並非所有的通貨膨脹都是美聯儲行動的結果。  

The5 0.5 percent increase in rates isn't going  to bring down gas prices since they are mostly  

費率增加0.5%並不會使油價下降，因為它們主要是在中國。

settled by OPEC, an organization of exporting  petroleum countries that control the demand  

歐佩克（OPEC）是一個控制需求的石油出口國組織，由它來解決這個問題。

and supply of oil in the market, and the war in  Ukraine that's creating scarcity in the market  

市場上的石油供應，以及烏克蘭的戰爭在市場上造成的稀缺性。

which is leading to such high gas prices  which are causing inflation worldwide. 

這導致瞭如此高的天然氣價格，造成了全世界的通貨膨脹。

But what worries me the most is that its going  to lead to a recession. The pandemic crashed  

但最讓我擔心的是，它將導致經濟衰退。大流行病崩潰了

supply chains, destroyed what companies have been  building for decades and now higher rates mean,  

供應鏈，破壞了公司幾十年來的建設，現在更高的利率意味著什麼。

these companies will have fewer resources to  res tore what they have built. When the budget  

這些公司將有更少的資源來恢復他們已經建立的東西。當預算

shrinks, companies will have to cut expenses,  which can easily lead to higher unemployment since  

萎縮，公司將不得不削減開支，這很容易導致失業率上升，因為

wages are the biggest expense for most companies. The consequences aren't going to be clear  

工資是大多數公司的最大支出。後果並不明顯

immediately, it's going to take  some time because 0.75 percent  

立即，這將需要一些時間，因為0.75%的

isn't 5.25 percent like it was in 2007. It's easy to criticize the fed but it's  

不是像2007年那樣的5.25%。責備美聯儲很容易，但它是

not easy to manage such a crisis. On one side, we  just got out of the pandemic that's not over yet,  

管理這樣一場危機並不容易。一方面，我們剛從尚未結束的大流行病中走出來。

on the other side, there is an entire war  taking place in Europe (russia/ukraine) which  

另一方面，在歐洲（俄羅斯/烏克蘭）正在發生一場完整的戰爭。

is causing oil prices to shoot to the moon and  that is raising prices for everything from the  

導致石油價格飆升至月球，而這正在提高所有東西的價格，從...。

cost of driving your car to your groceries. Thanks for watching and see you in the next one.

開車去買菜的成本。謝謝你的觀看，下一集見。