Stocks Don't Fall, the Fed Needs to  Force Them. That was a red line that  

股市不跌，美聯儲需要逼他們。那是一條紅線，是

immature investors should have taken seriously,  but people made so much money with meme stocks  

不成熟的投資者應該認真對待，但人們用備忘錄股票賺了這麼多錢

that it seemed like they would never fall. When  everything is rising, making money is easy!  

以至於它們似乎永遠不會下降。當一切都在上升的時候，賺錢是很容易的!

Whatever you buy is going to be the right bet.  You will make money no matter what stock you buy.

無論你買什麼，都將是正確的賭注。 無論你買什麼股票，你都會賺錢的。

Of course, it's great, but it's very dangerous  

當然，這很好，但也非常危險

in the long run. You will start thinking  that reading financial statements and  

從長遠來看。你會開始認為，閱讀財務報表和

analyzing their long strategy isn't  important when deciding which stock to buy.  

在決定購買哪隻股票時，分析他們的長期戰略並不重要。

Here you go! You made money without even having  a clue on how to analyze financial statements!

給你!你連如何分析財務報表的線索都沒有就賺到了錢!

Your confidence wouldn't be based on  solid grounds but is going to be flawed.  

你的信心不會建立在堅實的基礎上，而是會有缺陷。

That's why most meme stock investors  lost fortunes when everything crashed  

這就是為什麼當一切都崩潰時，大多數備忘錄股票投資者失去了財富

the moment the fed raised rates by half  a percentage point on the 4th of May. 

在5月4日美聯儲加息半個百分點的時候。

Once these meme traders see their portfolios  down by over 50 percent, they will most likely  

一旦這些備忘錄交易者看到他們的投資組合下降超過50%，他們很可能會

move to something else and stop trading  or investing until the next boom. The only  

轉到其他地方，停止交易或投資，直到下一次繁榮。唯一的

problem is that the next boom doesn't  seem to be around the corner. 

問題是，下一次繁榮似乎並不在拐角處。

Inflation has gone out of control to the  extent that it's now the fed's top priority.  

通貨膨脹已經失去控制，以至於現在成為美聯儲的首要任務。

Experts at The Economist Intelligence  Unit expect the Fed to raise rates  

經濟學人智庫的專家預計美聯儲將加息

seven times in 2022, reaching 2.9% in early 2023.

2022年的7倍，在2023年初達到2.9%。

On top of that, the fed plans to dramatically  shrink its 9 trillion dollar asset portfolio  

除此之外，美聯儲計劃大幅縮減其9萬億美元的資產組合

that it acquired during the pandemic. Beginning  of June, the fed intends to shrink the balance  

它在大流行期間獲得的。從6月開始，美聯儲打算縮減餘額。

sheet at a maximum monthly pace of $60  billion in Treasuries and $35 billion  

以每月600億美元國債和350億美元的最高速度，對資產負債表進行調整。

in mortgage-backed securities after an  initial few months at a slower pace. 

在最初的幾個月裡，抵押貸款支持的證券的速度有所放緩。

This might not sound like a big deal,  

這聽起來可能不是什麼大問題。

but it was one of the main reasons  why the market reacted so harshly. 

但這是市場反應如此劇烈的主要原因之一。

One of the primary ways the fed injects  money into the economy is by buying bonds.  

美聯儲向經濟注入資金的主要方式之一是購買債券。

When bonds mature, the fed often replaces  them or uses the interest from these bonds  

當債券到期時，美聯儲通常會替換它們或使用這些債券的利息

to purchase more bonds. But now  it's just not going to renew them,  

來購買更多的債券。但現在它就是不打算續期。

which means no more cheap money in the economy.  Of course, it ain't going to happen overnight but  

這意味著經濟中不再有廉價的貨幣。 當然，這不會在一夜之間發生，但是

gradually in order not to cause any immediate  economic crashes, but it already did since  

為了不造成任何直接的經濟崩潰，它已經做到了，因為

that sent a clear message to investors  that the age of cheap money has ended.

這向投資者發出了一個明確的資訊：廉價資金的時代已經結束。

That's why stocks and crypto crashed to  rock bottom, but that raises the question:  

這就是為什麼股票和加密貨幣崩潰到了谷底，但這提出了一個問題。

how to profit from a crash? Is there a way  to earn money when the market is crashing?

如何從暴跌中獲利？有什麼方法可以在市場崩潰時賺錢嗎？

We will answer all of these questions  and many more but before we do that,  

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題，但在這之前。

give this video a thumbs up, and here is  a little disclaimer: this is not financial  

給這個視頻豎起大拇指，這裡有一個小的免責聲明：這不是財務問題。

advice and everything thats said in this video  is for educational and entertainment purposes.

本視頻中所說的建議和所有內容都是出於教育和娛樂目的。

When we talk about a crash, it's usually  a negative thing. Emotions get in the way,  

當我們談論崩潰時，它通常是一件負面的事情。情緒受到影響。

and you start selling your positions that are  falling faster than a crashing plane. It gets  

你開始賣出你那比墜落的飛機還快的頭寸。它變得

even worse when these investments  represent your entire savings.  

如果這些投資代表了你的全部儲蓄，那就更糟糕了。

Just go back to the case of GameStop  when people got ever excited and threw  

只需回到GameStop的案例中，當人們變得越來越興奮並扔掉了

everything they had into that opportunity.  Unfortunately, things went south. People  

他們為這個機會付出了一切。 不幸的是，事情變得很糟糕。人們

panicked and sold their stocks at negative 80  percent after the hedge fund's manipulation. 

在對沖基金的操縱下，恐慌並以負80%的價格出售他們的股票。

If they had been a little more patient, they  wouldn't have lost as much as they did. Of course,  

如果他們再耐心一點，就不會損失那麼多了。當然了。

it's easy to say how things should have been after  everything has already happened. But the reality  

在一切已經發生之後，說事情應該如何發展是很容易的。但現實是

is that that's the nature of the market.  We can go back and say the exact  

是，這就是市場的性質。 我們可以回過頭來說，確切的

same thing about the 2020 crash.  The moral of the story, not letting emotions  

關於2020年的崩潰也是如此。 這個故事的寓意是，不要讓情緒

get in the way of your investing decisions is  the best thing you can do to your investments. 

妨礙你的投資決策是你能對你的投資做的最好的事情。

Each time the market overreacted  and fell dramatically, it recovered  

每次市場反應過度並大幅下跌時，都會恢復過來

shortly afterward. Those investors who  panicked and sold out found themselves  

不久之後。那些驚慌失措並賣出的投資者發現自己

regretting their decision, while  patient investors were rewarded. 

他們對自己的決定感到後悔，而耐心的投資者則得到了回報。

After the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor,  the S&P 500 index fell more than 4%  

日本襲擊珍珠港後，標準普爾500指數下跌超過4%。

and continued to drop another 14% over the next  few months. However, After that, and through  

並在接下來的幾個月裡繼續下降了14%。然而，在那之後，並通過

the end of the war in 1945, the stock market  returned more than 25% per year on average.  

1945年戰爭結束後，股票市場平均每年回報率超過25%。

The moral of the story is - when everyone is  panicking and selling, that's the time to buy.  

這個故事的寓意是--當所有人都在恐慌和賣出時，就是買入的時候。

Once everyone calms down and realizes  that life goes on, no matter what happens,  

一旦大家冷靜下來，意識到無論發生什麼，生活都會繼續。

people will start investing again, which will  bring back the market to its pre-crash level.

人們將再次開始投資，這將使市場恢復到崩潰前的水準。

Another way investors or traders, to  be more accurate, monetize a crash  

更準確地說，是投資者或交易商將崩潰貨幣化的另一種方式

is through put or call options. 

是通過看跌或看漲期權。

Let's go back to April 2022. The markets  were doing not bad. The only problem was that  

讓我們回到2022年4月。當時市場表現不俗。唯一的問題是

most people were unsure if the  fed would raise rates in May  

大多數人不確定美聯儲是否會在5月加息

and, most importantly, how  the market would react.  

而且，最重要的是，市場將如何反應。

If you were a hundred percent confident, you could  have shorted the market, but if you are not, you  

如果你有百分之百的信心，你可以做空市場，但如果你沒有信心，你就

have an option. A put option. An option to sell  the stock at a specific price for a small fee. 

有一個期權。一個認沽期權。一種以特定價格出售股票的期權，收取少量費用。

Let's say stock A cost $100, and you think that if  the fed raises rates, it could fall by over %50.  

假設股票A的價格為100美元，你認為如果美聯儲加息，它可能會下跌超過50％。

You buy a put option that costs 5 dollars to sell  stock A for 100 dollars that expire in a month.  

你買了一個5美元的看跌期權，以100美元出售股票A，一個月後到期。

You have 30 days to exercise the  option. If the stock doesn't crash,  

你有30天的時間來行使期權。如果股票沒有暴跌。

maximum that you can lose is  the 5 dollars you put up. 

你最大的損失是你投入的5美元。

However, if the market crashes after the fed  raises rates and stock A drops by 50 percent as  

然而，如果美聯儲加息後市場崩潰，股票A下跌50％，因為

you predicted to 50 dollars. You can buy  the stock for 50 dollars and sell it for  

你預測到了50美元。你可以以50美元的價格買入該股票，並以

100 dollars since you have purchased the right  to do so. And boom, you just earned 50 dollars.  

100美元，因為你已經購買了這樣做的權利。砰，你剛剛賺了50美元。

After deducting the cost of your put options which  was 5 dollars, you are left with a profit of $45. 

扣除你的看跌期權的成本（5美元），你剩下的利潤是45美元。

That's one of the main ways how traders earn  fortunes during crashes and minimize their risk.

這是交易者如何在崩潰期間賺取財富並將其風險降至最低的主要方法之一。

But let's say the market has crashed, and you  don't know whether it will recover or not, so  

但假設市場已經崩潰了，你不知道它是否會恢復，所以

you don't want to risk your money buying stocks.  Is there a way to still profit out of this crash?

你不想拿你的錢去買股票。 有沒有一種方法可以在這次暴跌中仍然獲利？

Of course.

當然了。

That's why we have call options. A call  option works exactly like a put option,  

這就是為什麼我們有看漲期權。看漲期權的工作原理與看跌期權完全一樣。

but in this case, you have the right  to buy the stock at a specific price. 

但在這種情況下，你有權利以特定的價格購買股票。

Let's say company B has crashed from 80 dollars  to 50 dollars, but you think that it's a temporary  

假設B公司從80美元墜落到50美元，但你認為這只是暫時的。

crash and the company has all the basis to  return back to 80 dollars, but you are not sure! 

崩潰和公司有所有的基礎，回到80美元，但你不確定！"。

We might face a recession, and the  stock might keep declining. So instead,  

我們可能會面臨經濟衰退，而股票可能會持續下跌。是以，與其如此，不如如此。

you buy a call option, a right to buy the  stock at 50 dollars for, let's say, 5 dollars.  

你買了一個看漲期權，一個在50美元買入股票的權利，比方說，5美元。

2 weeks later, the stock bounces back to  80 dollars. You exercise your right to buy  

2周後，該股反彈至80美元。你行使你的購買權

the stock at 50 dollars and then sell  it in an open market for 80 dollars.  

以50美元的價格購買股票，然後在公開市場上以80美元的價格出售。

After deducting the cost of the call option  ($5), you made 25 dollars on this deal.

扣除看漲期權的成本（5美元）後，你在這筆交易中賺了25美元。

So when there is a market crash, not everyone  suffers. Some people thrive during crashes.  

是以，當市場崩潰時，不是每個人都會受到影響。有些人在崩盤期間很興旺。

And some people are even willing to take  an infinite risk by shorting the market.  

而有些人甚至願意通過做空市場來承擔無限的風險。

That's why we have news such as  this - Tesla short-sellers have made  

這就是為什麼我們有這樣的新聞--特斯拉的做空者已經取得了

$8.2 billion betting against Elon Musk's  company this year as tech stocks crashed.

由於科技股崩潰，今年有82億美元對埃隆-馬斯克的公司進行押注。

Instead of buying put options, you can borrow  the stock from your broker and sell it in the  

與其購買看跌期權，你可以從你的經紀人那裡借來股票，然後在

open market for, let's say, 1k dollars and then  buy it back once the price drops to let's say,  

公開市場上的價格，比方說，1千美元，一旦價格下降到比方說，再把它買回來。

700 dollars and return it back to your  broker, pocketing the 300 dollar difference.  

700美元，然後把它退回給你的經紀人，把300美元的差價裝進口袋。

The only downside to this  strategy is that, theoretically,  

這一策略的唯一缺點是，從理論上講。

the stock price can rise infinitely, so  theoretically, your losses can be infinite.  

股票價格可以無限上漲，所以理論上說，你的損失可以是無限的。

That's exactly what went wrong with  hedge funds that shorted Gamestop.

這正是做空Gamestop的對沖基金所出的問題。

Good for them that they somehow  survived the catastrophe,  

對他們來說，他們以某種方式在這場災難中倖存下來是件好事。

but it could have gotten much worse, bankrupting  entire hedge funds. But as the latest news shows  

但它可能會變得更糟，使整個對沖基金破產。但正如最新消息顯示

that traders haven't stopped shorting. In  fact, even prominent names such as Bill Gates  

交易員並沒有停止做空。事實上，即使是像比爾-蓋茨這樣的著名人物

are using this strategy. Gates was even lately  criticized for trying to tackle climate change  

正在使用這一策略。蓋茨最近甚至因為試圖應對氣候變化而受到責備

but at the same time shorting Tesla, that's  trying to make electric cars more affordable.

但同時又在做空特斯拉，而特斯拉正試圖讓電動汽車變得更實惠。