Literally, almost everything is down.

從字面上看，幾乎所有的東西都壞了。

The stock market has crashed as if it's about to reach the bottom.

股市已經崩潰，彷彿即將到達底部。

I mean all the gains that it made during the pandemic literally vanished.

我的意思是，它在大流行期間取得的所有成果簡直是消失了。

Things went back to what it was to pre-pandemic for many tech companies.

對許多科技公司來說，事情又回到了大流行之前的狀態。

And if you look at crypto, things are so bad that some coins literally went bankrupt.

而如果你看一下加密貨幣，情況是如此糟糕，以至於一些硬幣實際上已經破產。

It's a bit sad that people lost their entire investments overnight.

人們在一夜之間失去了全部的投資，這有點可悲。

I mean, it's not like the stock plummeted by 20 or 30 percent and it could potentially

我的意思是，它不像股票暴跌20％或30％，它有可能

recover.

恢復。

Some crypto coins now cost nothing.

一些加密貨幣現在沒有成本。

Take a look at Luna.

看一看盧娜。

In less than a week, it went from around 80 bucks to literally $0.

在不到一週的時間裡，它從80美元左右變成了實際上的0美元。

People believed in this coin and threw their savings and it took a 0.5 increase in interest

人們相信這枚硬幣，並投入他們的儲蓄，它的利息增加了0.5％。

rates to destroy the currency.

破壞貨幣的利率。

Even Tether, the most stable coin that's tied to the US dollar for a moment fell by 5 percent.

即使是Tether，這個與美元掛鉤的最穩定的硬幣也暫時下跌了5%。

Ideally, it shouldn't since a single usdt should be worth a dollar.

理想情況下，它不應該，因為一個usdt應該值一美元。

Unlike stocks or crypto, the housing market is much more stable, it doesn't crash overnight,

與股票或加密貨幣不同，住房市場要穩定得多，它不會在一夜之間崩潰。

although the 2008 crash proved otherwise.

儘管2008年的崩潰證明了這一點。

Since then, house prices didn't rise much, that's why the unusual rise that happened

從那時起，房價就沒有怎麼上漲，這就是為什麼發生了不尋常的上漲

in the last 2 years worried people that we might be heading into another crash.

在過去的兩年裡，人們擔心我們可能會進入另一次崩潰。

Home prices rose 18.8% in 2021, according to the US National Home Price Index, the biggest

根據美國全國房價指數，2021年的房價上漲了18.8%，這是最

increase in 34 years of data and substantially ahead of the 2020s 10.4% gain.

在34年的數據中的增長，大大領先於2020年的10.4%的增長。

So the question that many have in their minds is, should I buy a house now or wait until

是以，許多人心中的問題是，我應該現在買房還是等到

the end of the year? or they will finally collapse?

還是他們最終會崩潰？

We will answer these questions and many more but before we do that, lets tell you first

我們將回答這些問題以及更多的問題，但在這之前，我們先告訴你

about Public.

關於公共。

Public.com is an investing platform that helps people be better investors.

Public.com是一個投資平臺，幫助人們成為更好的投資者。

It offers thousands of stocks, ETFs, and over 30 types of crypto from bitcoin to Shiba Inu

它提供了數以千計的股票、ETF和30多種加密貨幣，從比特幣到柴犬。

to ApeCoin [Screen recording scrolling through the different crypto on the platform].

到ApeCoin [螢幕記錄滾動瀏覽平臺上的不同加密貨幣]。

Instead of having 3 different portfolios, you can have one for all of your investments.

與其擁有3個不同的投資組合，你可以為你的所有投資擁有一個投資組合。

Importantly, they also have a strong social community directly in the app where you can

重要的是，他們還在應用程序中直接擁有一個強大的社交社區，你可以

learn & share ideas with over 3 million investors, creators and analysts [Show screen recording

與300多萬投資者、創作者和分析師學習和分享想法 [顯示螢幕記錄

of the social community feed.

的社會社區飼料。

Whether you're a beginner or seasoned investor, Public's platform makes investing in crypto

無論你是初學者還是經驗豐富的投資者，Public的平臺都能讓加密貨幣的投資成為可能。

accessible and convenient.

無障礙和方便。

You simply choose from a growing collection of 30 cryptos, select the amount you want

你只需從不斷增加的30種加密貨幣中選擇，選擇你想要的數量。

to invest, and that's it.

來投資，就是這樣。

You can invest instantly.

你可以立即投資。

Follow news, founders, and financial and crypto experts on the platform to find out where

在該平臺上關注新聞、創始人以及金融和加密貨幣專家，瞭解哪裡有

the market is headed [screen recording of the community feed]. 

市場正在走向[社區反饋的螢幕記錄]。

People like Graham Stephan, Cody Ko, Shelby Church and many thousands more are on the

像格雷厄姆-斯蒂芬、科迪-科、謝爾比-丘奇和成千上萬的人都在

app.

程式化。

Go to public.com/proactivethinker or link in my bio to get a free stock valued between

前往public.com/proactivethinker或我的履歷中的鏈接，以獲得一個免費的股票估值。

$3 to $300 in free stock when you make an account and deposit. 

當你開戶並存款時，有3至300美元的免費股票。

Since the world has embraced globalism, every country tried to specialize in what is good

自從世界接受了全球主義，每個國家都試圖專攻好的東西

and import what it cant effectively produce.

和進口它不能有效生產的東西。

That's how the standard of life across the world improved so dramatically since the greatest

這就是為什麼全世界的生活水準自最偉大的時代以來有了如此顯著的改善。

war in human history.

人類歷史上的戰爭。

But that created a lot of competition for companies since they had to compete not just

但這給公司帶來了很多競爭，因為他們不僅要競爭

with local companies but with the entire world.

與當地公司，但與整個世界。

So companies like Toyota came up with just-in-time production methods where the company wouldn't

是以，像豐田這樣的公司想出了及時生產的方法，公司不會

keep excessive inventory and would order only when its need by building efficient supply

通過建立高效的供應體系，保持過多的庫存，只在需要時才訂貨。

chains across the world.

世界各地的連鎖店。

It wouldn't waste any excessive inventory and wouldn't waste time waiting for them.

它不會浪費任何過多的庫存，也不會浪費等待他們的時間。

That's how Toyota became the world's largest car manufacturer by producing over 10 million

這就是豐田如何通過生產超過1000萬輛汽車成為世界上最大的汽車製造商。

cars and conquering even the US market.

汽車，甚至征服了美國市場。

This model became so efficient that the entire world started using it.

這種模式變得如此高效，以至於整個世界都開始使用它。

But not everything is sunshine and rainbows.

但不是所有事情都是陽光和彩虹。

The problem with this system is that, what if supply chains get disrupted?

這個系統的問題是，如果供應鏈被破壞了怎麼辦？

That's when real problems will start since disrupting a single part in a long chain is

這時，真正的問題就會開始，因為破壞一個長鏈中的單個部分是

going to stop everything.

將會阻止一切。

Back then, most people didn't imagine that happening.

那時，大多數人都沒有想到會發生這種情況。

Why would anyone deliberately stop making money?

為什麼有人會故意不賺錢？

So we developed ports across the world, with international standards to improve efficiency.

是以，我們在世界各地發展港口，用國際標準來提高效率。

Wealthier countries exported the productions of most of what they consumed to countries

較富裕的國家將他們所消費的大部分產品出口到各國。

with cheaper labor until 2020 when a mysterious virus shut the world down.

直到2020年，一種神祕的病毒關閉了世界，才有了更便宜的勞動力。

No one expected that the consequences will be so severe except for a small minority.

除了一小部分人，沒有人預料到後果會如此嚴重。

China first isolated Wuhan but then the world realized that it was too late to isolate just

中國首先孤立了武漢，但後來世界意識到，僅僅孤立武漢已經太晚了。

Wuhan.

武漢。

So the rest of the China and the world went into a pandemic, closing down factories, and

是以，中國和世界的其他地區進入了大流行，關閉了工廠，並且

the efficient supply chain we have built over the last few decades was suddenly useless.

我們在過去幾十年中建立的高效供應鏈突然失去了作用。

This methodology has led manufacturers to keep just a bare-bones inventory of raw materials

這種方法導致製造商只保留原材料的基本庫存

and components, which left them high and dry when the pandemic temporarily shut down their

和組件，這使得他們在大流行病暫時關閉的情況下，只能乾著急。

supply chains and threw the balance between supply and demand into disarray.

供應鏈，使供應和需求之間的平衡陷入混亂。

The question is - how is that related to the housing market?

問題是--這與住房市場有什麼關係？

The US doesn't just import parts to build cars and planes but also houses.

美國不只是進口零件來製造汽車和飛機，也進口房屋。

The U.S. is dependent on imported building materials to build homes.

美國依賴進口建築材料來建造房屋。

Up to 40% of a typical American home is made of imported materials.

一個典型的美國家庭有高達40%是由進口材料製成的。

Now, many of those imported materials, including insulation, lumber, cement, steel, and electrical

現在，許多這些進口材料，包括絕緣材料、木材、水泥、鋼材和電氣

equipment are in shortage since the supply chains that we have built are no longer as

由於我們已經建立的供應鏈不再像以前那樣，所以設備出現短缺。

efficient as they have been before the pandemic.

他們的效率與大流行病發生前一樣。

On top of that, take the conflict in Ukraine and you have a recipe for a disaster.

除此以外，再加上烏克蘭的衝突，你就有了一個災難的配方。

It's not just about raising oil prices but there is also a shortage of materials such

這不僅僅是油價上漲的問題，而且還存在材料短缺的問題，如

as steel or nickels because of this conflict.

因為這種衝突，我們可以將其作為鋼鐵或鎳幣。

The world today runs on capitalism which means demand and supply determine the price in the

今天的世界是在資本主義基礎上運行的，這意味著需求和供應決定了價格。

market which means that if there aren't enough materials to build more homes, prices will

市場，這意味著，如果沒有足夠的材料來建造更多的房屋，價格將

keep rising.

不斷上升。

And as long as there is a shortage of homes in the market, they will not fall.

而只要市場上的房屋短缺，他們就不會下跌。

The supply of homes was just returning to pre-pandemic levels but now the situation

房屋供應剛剛恢復到大流行前的水準，但現在的情況是

is different, no one knows when Russia's invasion of Ukraine will end and how.

是不同的，沒有人知道俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵何時結束以及如何結束。

until there is so much uncertainty, prices will keep rising.

直到有如此多的不確定性，價格將不斷上漲。

But you may wonder, why isn't there a bigger infrastructure to build homes?

但你可能會問，為什麼沒有更大的基礎設施來建造房屋？

Well, after the 2008 crash, many home builders went bankrupt.

那麼，在2008年的崩潰之後，許多房屋建築商破產了。

In 2008, house prices fell by over 16 percent.

在2008年，房價下跌了16%以上。

In some places, prices up to 50 percent.

在一些地方，價格高達50%。

How do you survive when you cant make a profit on the houses you are building?

當你不能在你建造的房屋上賺取利潤時，你如何生存呢？

You go out of business!

你要倒閉了!

After the crash, the real estate business became unattractive.

崩潰之後，房地產業務變得沒有吸引力。

Most of the companies that were bankrupted didn't return back to business.

大多數破產的公司都沒有恢復營業。

Only in 2013, did house prices recover and began to grow, but the growth was slow and

只有在2013年，房價才得以恢復並開始增長，但增長緩慢，而且

gradual.

漸進式。

In fact, in 2017, 18, and 19, they didn't grow at all.

事實上，在2017年、18年和19年，它們根本沒有增長。

How do you expect business to come back to building homes when prices arent growing?

當價格不增長時，你怎麼能指望企業回來建房？

Now even though they are rising so fast, we have supply chai n problems that are making

現在，即使他們上升得如此之快，我們的供應鏈問題正在使

it really difficult for home builders to build affordable houses.

對房屋建築商來說，建造可負擔得起的房屋確實很困難。

At its height in 2006, monthly new ho using starts peaked at 2.3 million.

在2006年的高峰期，每月新開工的房屋達到了230萬。

Over the coming years, new home construction kept falling until bottoming out at 478,000

在接下來的幾年裡，新房建設不斷下降，直到跌至47.8萬套。

in April 2009.

在2009年4月。

That period put many homebuilders and subcontractors out of business.

那段時間使許多房屋建築商和分包商失去了業務。

Firms that did survive were humbled and have since adopted more conservative business approaches.

那些倖存下來的公司都很慚愧，並在此後採取了更加保守的商業方法。

That's why some experts like economists at Zillow expect home values to grow another

這就是為什麼一些專家，如Zillow的經濟學家預計房屋價值會再增長

14.9% over the next year.

在未來一年裡，14.9%。

That's a bit optimistic, to be honest.

說實話，這有點樂觀了。

On the other side, we have experts who are warning us that, it doesn't matter what's

在另一邊，我們有專家警告我們，不管是什麼

happening there.

那裡正在發生。

supply chain issues are recovering and it's a matter of time before we solve the shortage

供應鏈問題正在恢復，解決短缺問題是一個時間問題

of homes in the market, so it's a matter of time before prices cool down.

市場上的房屋，所以價格降下來是一個時間問題。

Especially since average 30-year-fixed mortgage rates have risen from roughly 3.5% to about

特別是由於30年固定抵押貸款的平均利率已經從大約3.5%上升到大約1.5%。

5.6% this year, and as the fed keeps raising rates to bring down inflation to 2 percent,

今年是5.6%，隨著美聯儲不斷提高利率，使通貨膨脹率降至2%。

that number will keep rising.

這個數字將繼續上升。

On the other side, Home prices will keep going up because there aren't enough houses available

另一方面，房價將繼續上漲，因為沒有足夠的房子可供出售。

to meet demand, but the combination of rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates means

以滿足需求，但房屋價格上漲和抵押貸款利率上升的結合意味著

fewer people will be able to afford to buy.

更少的人將能夠買得起。

The truth is that the united states can't afford another housing crash in the coming

事實是，美國在未來無法承受另一次住房崩潰。

future.

未來。

Especially since it's facing so many other challenges.

特別是由於它正面臨著如此多的其他挑戰。

Imagine a 2008 crash on top of the supply chain problems and geopolitical challenges

想象一下，在供應鏈問題和地緣政治挑戰的基礎上，再加上2008年的崩潰

that the country is facing with Russia and China.

該國正面臨著與俄羅斯和中國的關係。

It littraly going to drain the country so much that no one knows how long it will take

這將使這個國家的人口大量流失，沒有人知道這將需要多長時間。

it to get out.

它可以出去了。

That's why if there is going to be a decline, it's most likely going to be mild.

這就是為什麼如果會有下降，很可能是溫和的。

If you account the fact that we are facing serious inflation overall, it gets even more

如果你考慮到我們總體上面臨著嚴重的通貨膨脹這一事實，情況會變得更加糟糕。

difficult to imagine a crash, since overall inflation will directly impact house prices.

很難想象會出現崩潰，因為整體通貨膨脹會直接影響到房價。

So is it a good time to buy a house?

那麼現在是買房的好時機嗎？

Well, we can't answer that for you because it's an individual decision for each and every

嗯，我們不能為你回答這個問題，因為這是每個人的個人決定。

one of us.

我們中的一員。

Especially since no matter how many predictions we make, the future still seems unpredictable,

特別是無論我們做多少預測，未來似乎仍然不可預測。

but the facts on the ground today can tell us a lot about what to expect.

但今天當地的事實可以告訴我們很多可以期待的事情。