Name: 習近平的第三個執政期--對中國大陸邊界以外的影響 | DW新聞 (Xi's third term in power - Implications beyond mainland China's borders | DW News)
Uploaded: 2022-11-01T18:13:09.000Z
Duration: 7 min 21 s

China's President Xi Jinping is this week beginning another five year term as Communist Party leader.

中國國家主席習近平本週開始作為共產黨領導人的另一個五年任期。

The fact that it's his third is historic and it cemented him as china's most powerful ruler in decades.

這是他的第三次，是歷史性的，它鞏固了他作為中國幾十年來最強大統治者的地位。

基礎被動語態

She's appointment was confirmed over the weekend at a party congress in Beijing there.

她的任命在週末北京的一次黨代會上得到了確認。

He shook up the party's senior ranks, promoting loyalists proteges to china's top leadership while sweeping away factional rivals and for the first time in 25 years, there are no women holding top jobs in the polit bureau.

他動搖了黨的高級隊伍，將忠誠的門徒提拔到中國的最高領導層，同時掃除了派系對手，25年來第一次沒有婦女在政治局中擔任高級職務。

We can speak now to political scientist Professor Steve Sung, the director of the China Institute at Soas London.

我們現在可以採訪政治學家史蒂夫-宋教授，他是倫敦Soas大學中國研究所的主任。

Professor, welcome to DW News Asia regarding Xi Jinping.

教授，歡迎來到關於習近平的DW亞洲新聞。

You've been quoted as saying that we have seen the end of collective leadership in china and that it's being replaced by strongman rule in your opinion.

有人引用你的話說，我們已經看到中國集體領導的終結，在你看來，它正在被強人統治所取代。

What will she's third term in power mean for china now and going into the future?

她的第三個任期對中國現在和未來意味著什麼？

Well, it means now, china is being reshaped after Xi Jinping's image, he has now replaced anyone from other factions within the Communist Party by his own apologies and proven loyalists.

那麼，這意味著現在，中國正在重塑習近平的形象之後，他現在已經用自己的道歉和被證明的忠誠者取代了共產黨內其他派別的任何人。

They will all say yes sir, we will go and follow you wherever you want to take us.

他們都會說是的，先生，我們會去跟隨你，無論你想帶我們去哪裡。

And China is going to be rough for the rest of the world.

而中國對世界其他國家來說將是艱難的。

You've also said it all now depends on Xi Jinping getting it right.

你也說過，現在一切都取決於習近平的正確做法。

What he needs to get everything right because he says that the party leads everything everywhere in china and beyond china where china is concerned.

他需要把一切都搞清楚，因為他說，在中國和中國以外的地方，只要涉及到中國，黨就會上司一切。

他必須正確對待他的外交政策。

他必須正確對待他的社會政策。

If he doesn't do so, big mistakes can be made, can be made and they will have consequences for the people of china and also for the rest of the world.

如果他不這樣做，可能會犯大錯，可能會犯大錯，而且會對中國人民和世界其他國家產生影響。

Could you outline some of what those potential consequences might be?

你能否概述一下這些潛在的後果是什麼？

Well, the civil covid policy, for example, is causing significant slowdown in the chinese economy.

好吧，舉例來說，民事訴訟政策正在導致中國經濟大幅放緩。

The policy on the real estate market is again causing economic or financial instability in china.

對房地產市場的政策再次造成中國經濟或金融的不穩定。

If he insists on using force against Taiwan, we may be facing a situation when uh the United States and china will be actively in engaging in military hostilities with each other and you will also have continuations of the kind of repression of people in Hong kong and in Xinjiang amongst the bigger people.

如果他堅持對臺灣使用武力，我們可能會面臨這樣一種情況，即美國和中國將積極地相互進行軍事敵對行動，而且你還會繼續在香港和新疆的大人物中對人民進行鎮壓。

Professor, there's been a multiparty delegation from the German parliament's Human rights Committee that's been visiting Taiwan.

教授，有一個來自德國議會人權委員會的多黨派代表團一直在訪問臺灣。

Let's take a listen to some of what it's had to say.

And then we'll come back to you, We have noted Xi Jinping's intimidation against Taiwan at China's 20th Party Congress.

然後我們再回來找你，我們已經注意到習近平在中國黨的二十大上對臺灣的恐嚇。

From our perspective, Taiwan stands at the center of the rivalry between systems.

從我們的角度來看，臺灣站在各系統之間競爭的中心。

I mean not only verbal attacks on Taiwan, but a real military threat that we must not underestimate.

我指的不僅僅是對臺灣的口頭攻擊，而是我們決不能低估的真正的軍事威脅。

I want to emphasize that from Germany's perspective the status quo in the Taiwan strait can only be altered peacefully and in agreement between the two sides, Professor steve Tsang.

我想強調的是，從德國的角度來看，臺灣海峽的現狀只能在雙方的同意下和平地改變，Steve Tsang教授。

It's interesting that this german delegation came at this particular time.

有趣的是，這個德國代表團在這個特定的時間到來。

What message if any, does this send to china?

如果有的話，這向中國發出了什麼資訊？

And is this a trip to Taiwan that Beijing would take much notice of?

而這一次的臺灣之行，北京方面是否會很注意？

Well, Beijing will certainly take notice and Beijing will disapprove of it.

那麼，北京肯定會注意到，北京會不同意。

But what the delegation is saying are absolutely right.

但代表團所說的是完全正確的。

Um it will not go down well in china and the Chinese government should realize that for a german for a delegation from Germany which is very committed to develop mutually beneficial relationship with china to come out and say so shows how far opinions in the Democratic West has changed, but it won't be read that way.

中國政府應該認識到，一個致力於與中國發展互利關係的德國代表團站出來這麼說，說明西方民主國家的意見已經發生了多大的變化，但它不會被這樣理解。

Beijing will simply see this delegation as being anti chinese.

北京會把這個代表團看作是反華的。

Okay, if we can turn our attention back to the Congress that's just taken place.

好吧，如果我們能把注意力轉回到剛剛舉行的大會上。

There is a lot of speculation around the former leader, hu jintao who was quite publicly and dramatically led or forced out of the Congress.

圍繞著前領導人胡錦濤有很多猜測，他被相當公開和戲劇性地引導或強迫離開國會。

There are various theories about what exactly happened.

關於到底發生了什麼，有各種理論。

I think some of the explanations are not completely mutually exclusive.

我認為一些解釋並不完全相互排斥。

We can see that Jintao is not well but to say that he was being removed because of ill health, I think is stretching it.

我們可以看到，錦濤身體不好，但說他因為健康狀況不佳而被免職，我認為是誇大其詞。

Um he was not showing any signs of distress when he was being removed.

嗯，他在被移走時沒有表現出任何痛苦的跡象。

His distress comes from being removed and if this was not planned, somebody would be punished for it severely for embarrassing Xi Jinping at the most important political event in his 10 years of rule in china.

他的苦惱來自於被免職，如果這不是計劃中的，有人會因為在習近平統治中國的10年中最重要的政治事件上讓他難堪而受到嚴厲的懲罰。

So it will have to be a deliberate attempt by xi Jinping to humiliate hu jintao and send a clear signal that the once mighty youth league faction of which hu jintao is still the spiritual leader is no more Now, there is only one leader in china and that is Xi Jinping paid no attention to former leaders or anybody else.

是以，這將是習近平有意羞辱胡錦濤，併發出一個明確的信號，即曾經強大的青年團派別（胡錦濤仍然是其精神領袖）已經不復存在。

Speaking of leaders sir, I'd like to ask you finally about lee Kyung who's been appointed china's second most powerful leader.

說到領導人，先生，我想最後問一下被任命為中國第二大領導人的李克強的情況。

And what does his appointment demonstrate?

Li chang was a former secretary of Xi Jinping and he was still is the party secretary of shanghai and therefore the apartment in shanghai and he made a mess of the Zero covid policy earlier this year in shanghai but he remains totally loyal to Xi Jinping and to the serial covid policy and for his loyalty has been rewarded, promotions to number two in senior person in china and almost certainly the next premier in this spring, Professor Steve Tsang, the director of the China institute at Soas London.

李昌是習近平的前祕書，他仍然是上海市的黨委書記，是以也是上海的公寓，他今年早些時候在上海把零關稅政策搞得一團糟，但他仍然完全忠於習近平和連環關稅政策，並且因為他的忠誠得到了回報，晉升為中國的第二號高級人物，幾乎可以肯定是今年春天的下一任總理，倫敦大學中國研究所的主任Steve Tsang教授。

We really appreciate your insights today.

我們真的很感謝你今天的見解。