Name: 麗茲．錢尼對川普三度競選總統做出了糟糕的預判 (Liz Cheney makes grim prediction on a third Trump presidential bid)
Uploaded: 2022-11-13T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 4 min 34 s

Trying to decide on my Halloween costume.

Wyoming congresswoman, Liz Cheney, thinks that if the GOP nominates Donald Trump for president again in 2024, it will be the end of the Republican Party,

懷俄明州女議員 Liz Cheney 認為，如果共和黨在 2024 年再次提名川普為總統的話，將是共和黨的末日，

or at least the end of the Republican party as we currently think of it.

或者至少是我們目前知道的這個共和黨的末日。

I think that the party has either got to come back from where we are right now, which is a very dangerous and toxic place,

我認為共和黨要麼必須從我們現在非常危險，有害的處境振作起來，

or the party will splinter and there will be a new conservative party that rises.

要麼黨會分裂，且會有一個新的保守黨崛起。

After all, we've had a two-party dynamic in this country for a very long time.

畢竟我們國家維持兩黨獨大的狀態已經有很長一段時間了。

So the notion that one of the two major parties would splinter into two is something that would, well, make history.

因此，其中一個主要政黨分裂成兩個政黨，很可能會創下美國史上的特例。

Cheney was also asked about the prospect of running for president herself in 2024 as part of a Stop Trump effort.

作為阻止川普復出的一員，Cheney 還被問及自己在 2024 年競選總統的前景。

We will do whatever it takes. As I said, he will not be the President (of the) United States again.

我們將不惜一切代價，正如我所說，他不會再次成為美國總統。

The question then becomes whether Cheney is, well, right.

現在的問題是，Cheney 說的是對嗎？

There is, without question, a vocal anti-Trump wing within the Republican party - Cheney, the vice chair of the January 6th committee is perhaps the best known of that group.

毫無疑問，共和黨內有一個聲勢浩大的反川普派，1 月 6 日襲擊事件特別委員會副主席 Cheney 也許是這個團體中最有名的，

But there are, without question, more members of it, including Illinois congressman Adam Kinzinger, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and a few other high-profile names.

但毫無疑問，這個團體中還有更多成員，包括伊利諾伊州國會議員 Adam Kinzinger、馬里蘭州州長 Larry Hogan 和其他一些知名人士。

What's harder to tell is how big of a group that actually is. The answer to that question sort of depends on which poll you look at when.

這個團體的成員到底有多少不知道，這要取決於你是看哪個民調的。

So there's a recent New York times Siena College poll that showed that just one in ten Republicans viewed Trump either somewhat or very unfavorably.

最近紐約時報錫耶納學院的一項民意調查顯示，只有十分之一的共和黨人對川普的看法有些許或非常負面。

By contrast, a majority, 56% in that same poll said they had a very favorable impression of the former president.

相比之下，在同一項民意調查中，56% 的多數人表示他們對前總統的印象非常好。

Then there's an AP-Norc poll which offers a slightly more optimistic view for the likes of Cheney.

另外是 AP-Norc 民意調查，這個民調顯示對 Cheney 帶有稍微樂觀的看法。

Roughly six in ten, 57% of Republicans in that poll said that they wanted Trump to run again for president in 2024 while 43% said they didn't want a third Trump presidential bid.

在該民意調查中，大約十分之六，也就是 57% 的共和黨人表示他們希望川普在 2024 年再次競選總統，而 43% 的人表示他們不希望川普第三次競選總統。

Of course, saying that you don't want Trump to run again for president is different than believing that a new party should be formed to accommodate those Republicans who cannot and will not support Trump.

當然，不希望川普再次競選總統跟認為應該成立一個新政黨來容納那些不能也不會支持川普的共和黨人是不同的。

Polling aside, the numbers suggest that Cheney's splinter party would face pretty long odds.

撇開民調不談，數字表明 Cheney 的分裂黨派將面臨相當大的挑戰。

So Cheney lost the Republican primary for Wyoming's sole House seat badly to a Trump-backed candidate.

Cheney 在懷俄明州唯一的眾議院席位的共和黨初選中輸給了川普支持的候選人。

Kinzinger is retiring from Congress, but would have likely lost had he decided to run again.

Kinzinger 將從國會退休，但如果他決定再次參選，他很可能會輸。

Of the other eight House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the January 6, 2021 attack, six more have either retired or lost their primary. Six of those eight.

在投票彈劾川普在 2021 年 1 月 6 日襲擊事件中所扮演角色的其他八名眾議院共和黨人中，有六個人已經退休或輸掉初選，八個人中就有六個。

In the Senate, Trump is targeting Alaska Republican senator Lisa Murkowski, who also happens to be one of the seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him (and) who is also on the ballot this November.

在參議院中，川普的目標是阿拉斯加共和黨參議員 Lisa Murkowski，她恰好是七名投票判川普有罪的參議院共和黨人之一，並且也參加今年 11 月的選舉。

And while there were exceptions, the 2022 primary season, broadly speaking, affirmed Trump's lasting power within the party.

雖然也是有例外，但從廣義上來看，2022 年的初選季肯定了川普在黨內的持久權力。

Trump-backed candidates won senate primaries in Pennsylvania, in Arizona, in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

川普支持的候選人贏得了賓夕法尼亞州、亞利桑那州、佐治亞州、俄亥俄州和北卡羅來納州的參議院初選。

By the way, in that Ohio waste, J.D. Vance, the Republican Senate nominee, Trump said this of  Vance at a rally last month.

順便說一下，在俄亥俄州，關於共和黨參議院候選人 J.D. Vance，川普在上個月的一次造勢會上是這樣說他的。

"J.D. is kissing my ass, he wants my support so bad."

「J.D. 正在巴結我，因為他非常希望得到我的支持。」

Trump's preferred candidates also won Republican primaries for governor in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

川普支持的候選人還贏得了亞利桑那州、內華達州、賓夕法尼亞州、密歇根州和威斯康辛州州長的共和黨初選。

And even in Maryland, a Trump-backed candidate beat Hogan's preferred candidate.

甚至在馬里蘭州，川普支持的候選人也擊敗了霍根支持的候選人。

It's not too much to say that Trump is trying to purge the Republican party right now of dissenting voices.

要說川普眼下正試圖清除共和黨內的異議聲音一點也不為過。

It's also not too much to say that it is working.

要說他的行爲正在發揮成效也不爲過。

Trump's record of crushing opposition has led Republican leaders, most notably House Minority leader Kevin McCarthy to fall in line, staying silent or acquiescing to his false claims about the 2020 election.

川普就有過剷除反對派人士的紀錄，尤其是讓共和黨眾議院少數黨領袖 Kevin McCarthy 選邊站，並且要他對於 2020 年大選錯誤的表態保持沈默。

And there are few data points to suggest that a viable, viable being the key word, new Conservative Party could emerge or at least emerge quickly if Trump does run and win the Republican nomination come 2024.

而且幾乎沒有數據表明，如果川普真的參選並贏得 2024 年的共和黨提名，新的保守黨可能會出現，或者至少會在近期內出現。

There are voices in pockets of opposition, yes.

But it's also beyond debate that that group is less powerful today than it was a year ago or two years ago,

但同樣無可爭議的是，該黨派現在的力量不如一年前或兩年前，

which isn't to say that a rival third party organized around conservative principles couldn't emerge at some point down the line.

並不代表圍繞保守原則組織起來的競爭性第三方黨派不會在未來某個時候出現。

It could, especially if trump loses in 2024 relegating Republicans to another four years out of White House power.

還是有可能，特別是如果川普在 2024 年輸掉大選，共和黨人在白宮掌權的時間將再延長四年。

But the fact remains that as of today, there is scant evidence that there's a robust group of anti-Trump or pro-conservative voices that would form the core of another party in opposition to the current edition of the GOP.

但目前的現狀是，幾乎沒有證據表明有一群強大的反川普或親保守派聲音將構成反對當前共和黨的另一個政黨的核心。

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麗茲．錢尼對川普三度競選總統做出了糟糕的預判 (Liz Cheney makes grim prediction on a third Trump presidential bid)

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