Name: 涓滴經濟如何反作用於英國任期最短的首相 (How trickle-down economics backfired on Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister)
Uploaded: 2022-10-30T19:00:40.000Z
Duration: 9 min 33 s

程度副詞

On October 20th 2022, after just 44 days in office, British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned.

2022年10月20日，在上任僅44天后，英國首相莉斯-特拉斯辭職了。

I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.

Her brief premiership, the shortest in U.K. history, will be remembered for being mired

她短暫的總理任期是英國曆史上最短的任期，將因陷入困境而被人記住。

by fiscal calamity, political infighting and market meltdown.

財政災難、政治內鬥和市場崩潰。

But also, her dogged efforts to revive a controversial economic idea.

但是，還有，她為恢復一個有爭議的經濟理念所作的不懈努力。

Trickle-down economics, a term most closely associated with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

涓滴經濟學，這個詞與羅納德-里根和瑪格麗特-撒切爾關係最密切。

Truss' experiment was maybe a sort of last gasp of trickle-down, the disastrous results

特拉斯的實驗也許是一種涓涓細流的最後喘息，其災難性的結果是

may have been the death knell of that philosophy.

Stock markets were roiled, and the British pound plunged against the dollar, after the

股票市場被攪亂，英鎊兌美元暴跌，此前

new U.K. government unveiled a “mini-budget” of tax cuts seen to disproportionately benefit

英國新政府公佈的 "小型預算 "中的減稅措施被認為將使更多的人受益。

the wealthy, even as the country faces a worsening cost-of-living crisis.

即使在國家面臨日益惡化的生活費用危機時，富人也能獲得更多好處。

The move prompted critique from financial institutions and political ire from across the Atlantic.

此舉引發了金融機構的責備和大西洋彼岸的政治憤怒。

Even the Bank of England was forced to intervene.

甚至英格蘭銀行也被迫進行了干預。

I think trickle-down is a bit of a boogey term for people who dislike free market ideas.

我認為涓滴效應對那些不喜歡自由市場理念的人來說，是一個有點可怕的術語。

So just what is 'trickle-down' economics and why did it cause the U.K.'s economic strategy to implode?

那麼，到底什麼是 "涓滴 "經濟學，為什麼它會導致英國的經濟戰略內爆？

'Trickle-down' economics is the theory that deregulation and tax cuts at

涓涓細流 "經濟學是這樣一種理論，即放松管制和減稅在

the top levels of society, namely for businesses and the wealthy, will eventually trickle down

社會最高層，即企業和富人，最終會向下滲透。

Coined as a phrase by political opponents critical of top-level tax cuts, the term trickle-down

涓滴效應這個詞是由責備高層減稅的政治反對派創造的。

falls within, but differs from, wider “supply-side" theory, which focuses on increasing the supply of labor

屬於更廣泛的 "供應方 "理論，但與之不同，後者側重於增加勞動力的供應。

People who believe in the kind of trickle-down about cutting taxes for the wealthy, for the entrepreneurs,

相信為富人、為企業家減稅的那種涓滴效應的人。

their supply-side story is that there will be such a strong response

他們的供應方故事是，會有如此強烈的反應

of new people founding firms, more Bill Gates, more Elon Musks, because there's more of

新人創辦公司，更多的比爾-蓋茨，更多的埃隆-馬斯克，因為有了更多的

an incentive to come up with the ideas if you can get big rewards for them.

如果你能得到巨大的獎勵，就能激勵你想出這些想法。

The idea is closely linked to the Laffer curve, an economic model popularized in the 1970s

這一想法與拉弗曲線密切相關，拉弗曲線是20世紀70年代流行的一種經濟模型。

by U.S. economist Arthur Laffer, which showed the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue.

美國經濟學家阿瑟-拉弗(Arthur Laffer)的著作，顯示了稅率和稅收之間的關係。

According to the model, when taxes pass a certain level, they become counterproductive

根據該模型，當稅收超過一定水準時，它們就會產生反作用。

Crucially, that tipping point tended to come when taxes were prohibitively high, over 50%.

至關重要的是，當稅收高得令人望而卻步，超過50%時，這一轉捩點往往就會出現。

He argued that if you cut taxes, for example for the very wealthy, they pay for themselves.

他認為，如果你減稅，例如對非常富有的人減稅，他們會自己付錢。

The idea is that if you cut taxes for the wealthy, they work so hard, they generate

這個想法是，如果你為富人減稅，他們工作非常努力，他們會產生

so much more growth and tax revenue, you actually end up with more tax.

如此多的增長和稅收，你實際上最終會有更多的稅收。

Trickle-down economics truly rose to fame in the 1980s under U.S. President Ronald Reagan

涓滴經濟學真正成名於20世紀80年代美國總統羅納德-里根時期。

and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who were both strong proponents of tax cuts as a way

和英國首相瑪格麗特-撒切爾，他們都是減稅的堅定支持者，作為一種方式。

Now some critics complain your tax cut is too big, that it costs government too much.

現在，一些批評者抱怨你的減稅幅度太大，讓政府花費太多。

Well, this may be a shock to them, but that money isn't the government's to begin with.

好吧，這可能讓他們感到震驚，但這些錢本來就不是政府的。

More recently, Donald Trump campaigned on “the largest tax cuts in the history

最近，唐納德-特朗普在競選中提出 "歷史上最大的減稅"。

Meanwhile, in France, President Emmanuel Macron abolished the country's wealth tax in 2018

與此同時，在法國，總統埃馬紐埃爾-馬克龍在2018年廢除了該國的財富稅

and joined the likes of Ireland in reducing corporation tax and deregulating industry

並與愛爾蘭等國一起降低公司稅和放鬆行業管制

But trickle-down economics has come up against harsh criticism over the years, with some

但是，多年來，涓滴經濟學受到了嚴厲的責備，一些人

political scientists dubbing it a “zombie” theory; an idea which has endured in public discourse

政治學家稱其為 "殭屍 "理論；這一觀點在公眾討論中經久不衰。

In a 2015 paper, the International Monetary Fund noted that “a rising income share of the top 20 percent

在2015年的一份文件中，國際貨幣基金組織指出，"收入最高的20%的人的收入份額不斷上升

results in lower growth — that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down.”

導致較低的增長--也就是說，當富人變得更富有時，利益並沒有滴下來。"

If you look, say, over the last 30, 40 years, a lot of countries that have reduced the tax

如果你看一下，比如說，在過去的30、40年裡，很多國家都減少了稅收

rate on the most wealthy, the U.S., in particular, that hasn't led to some boom of growth.

對最富有的人的利率，特別是美國，這並沒有導致一些增長的繁榮。

The top 1% have got a lot, lot bigger shares of the pie.

前1%的人已經得到了很多很多的份額。

In the U.S. between 1979 and 2007, the net income of the top 1% of earners nearly tripled

在美國，1979年至2007年期間，收入最高的1%的人的淨收入幾乎增加了兩倍。

while those in the bottom 20% rose by just 16%.

而處於底層的20%的人只增加了16%。

The findings have been mirrored over the years in multiple reports.

多年來，這些發現在多份報告中都得到了反映。

A 2020 study of five decades of tax cuts, spanning 18 wealthy countries, found that the effect

2020年對橫跨18個富裕國家的五十年減稅的研究發現，效果

of “major tax cuts for the rich on real GDP per capita is close to zero and statistically insignificant.”

"對富人的重大減稅對實際人均GDP的影響接近零，在統計學上不顯著。"

Still, in 2022,  Liz Truss campaigned and came to power on promises of tax cuts, particularly

然而，在2022年，Liz Truss在競選中和上臺時都承諾要減稅，特別是

for the top end of the economic spectrum.

The U.K. government, for its part, has resisted the term “trickle-down ecconomics,”

英國政府則抵制 "涓滴經濟 "一詞。

instead referring to its 'Economic Growth Plan' as a series of supply-side reforms.

而將其 "經濟增長計劃 "稱為一系列的供應方改革。

Matthew Lesh is head of public policy at London's Institute of Economic Affairs,

馬修-萊什是倫敦經濟事務研究所的公共政策主管。

a free market, right-leaning financial think tank that works closely with the U.K.'s Conservative Party.

一個與英國保守黨緊密合作的自由市場、右傾金融智庫。

I reject the characterization of trickle-down economics in that I don't think that's

我拒絕接受涓滴經濟學的定性，因為我不認為那是

a philosophy that anyone is doing or supports.

一個任何人都在做或支持的哲學。

What I would say is that the kind of policies the government's talking about, in terms

我想說的是，政府所談論的那種政策，在

of boosting productivity, increasing economic growth, expanding the size of the pie and

促進生產力，提高經濟增長，擴大蛋糕的規模，並在此基礎上提高經濟效益。

making it bigger so everyone can get a bigger piece, that kind of a policy agenda is very

讓它變得更大，以便每個人都能得到更大的份額，這種政策議程是非常

sensible and reasonable and something that I think can increase prosperity.

合理的，我認為可以增加繁榮的東西。

The challenge is making that politically palatable.

面臨的挑戰是如何使其在政治上具有可接受性。

That challenge, as it turned out, was entirely underestimated.

事實證明，這一挑戰被完全低估了。

In a September 2022 “mini-budget,” the U.K.'s then Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng

在2022年9月的 "小型預算 "中，英國當時的財政部長誇西-誇騰

announced £45 billion worth of corporate and income tax cuts, including removing the cap

宣佈了價值450億英鎊的企業和所得稅減免，包括取消上限。

on banker bonuses, financial markets balked, and sterling was sent into freefall.

在銀行家的獎金上，金融市場出現了異議，英鎊被送入自由落體。

Britain's central bank, the Bank of England, was forced to step in with an emergency bond-buying operation

英國的中央銀行--英格蘭銀行被迫介入，進行緊急債券購買行動

to restore credibility to chaotic markets.

Meanwhile, the unfunded tax cuts drew global criticism.

同時，沒有資金支持的減稅措施引起了全球的責備。

In a rare statement, the International Monetary Fund said the plans would “likely increase inequality”

在一份罕見的聲明中，國際貨幣基金組織表示，這些計劃 "可能會增加不平等"。

and urged the government to “reevaluate the tax measures,

並敦促政府 "重新評估稅收措施。

especially those that benefit high income earners.”

特別是那些有利於高收入者的"。

Days later, the Treasury was forced to U-turn on one of its most controversial policies

幾天後，財政部被迫對其最有爭議的政策之一進行了調頭。

of scrapping the top 45% rate of income tax for those earning over £150,000.

廢除收入超過15萬英鎊的最高45%的所得稅。

Within weeks, Kwarteng was given the boot and, with it, most of his economic policies

在幾周內，誇滕被踢出局，隨之而來的是他的大部分經濟政策。

were thrown out by successor Jeremy Hunt.

There are going to be difficult decisions in terms of public spending cuts, in terms

在削減公共開支方面，將有困難的決定，在以下方面也是如此

The government's strategy was considered particularly ill-timed as the country faces

政府的戰略被認為是特別不合時宜的，因為該國面臨著

its worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, amid soaring inflation and higher energy costs.

在飆升的通貨膨脹和更高的能源成本下，其生活成本危機是一代人中最嚴重的。

As of September 2022, U.K. inflation hit a 40-year-high of 10.1%, after dipping slightly in August.

截至2022年9月，英國的通貨膨脹率達到了40年來的最高值10.1%，在8月份略有下降。

The Bank of England, alongside central banks across the globe, has been aggressively raising

英格蘭銀行與全球各地的中央銀行一起，一直在積極地提高

interest rates in a bid to cool the economy and bring down prices.

Now, with inflation going up and interest rates going up, having big, unfunded tax cuts

現在，隨著通貨膨脹率的上升和利率的上升，有大的、沒有資金的減稅措施

It's like Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have got their foot on the fiscal accelerator and

這就像Liz Truss和Kwasi Kwarteng把他們的腳放在財政加速器上，並且

the Bank of England's got its foot down on the breaks.

英格蘭銀行的腳已經踩在了剎車上。

這不是一個駕駛汽車的好方法。

Of course, tax cuts are just one approach to economic policy.

當然，減稅只是經濟政策的一種方法。

So what could be a better alternative which improves living standards and prosperity across the board?

那麼，有什麼更好的選擇，可以全面提高生活水準和繁榮？