I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.

我將辭去保守黨領袖的職務。

Her brief premiership, the shortest in U.K. history, will be remembered for being mired

她短暫的總理任期是英國曆史上最短的任期，將因陷入困境而被人記住。

by fiscal calamity, political infighting and market meltdown.

財政災難、政治內鬥和市場崩潰。

But also, her dogged efforts to revive a controversial economic idea.

但是，還有，她為恢復一個有爭議的經濟理念所作的不懈努力。

That theory?

這個理論？

Trickle-down economics, a term most closely associated with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

涓滴經濟學，這個詞與羅納德-里根和瑪格麗特-撒切爾關係最密切。

Truss' experiment was maybe a sort of last gasp of trickle-down, the disastrous results

特拉斯的實驗也許是一種涓涓細流的最後喘息，其災難性的結果是

may have been the death knell of that philosophy.

可能是這種哲學的喪鐘。

Stock markets were roiled, and the British pound plunged against the dollar, after the

股票市場被攪亂，英鎊兌美元暴跌，此前

new U.K. government unveiled a “mini-budget” of tax cuts seen to disproportionately benefit

英國新政府公佈的 "小型預算 "中的減稅措施被認為將使更多的人受益。

the wealthy, even as the country faces a worsening cost-of-living crisis.

即使在國家面臨日益惡化的生活費用危機時，富人也能獲得更多好處。

The move prompted critique from financial institutions and political ire from across the Atlantic.

此舉引發了金融機構的責備和大西洋彼岸的政治憤怒。

Even the Bank of England was forced to intervene.

甚至英格蘭銀行也被迫進行了干預。

I think trickle-down is a bit of a boogey term for people who dislike free market ideas.

我認為涓滴效應對那些不喜歡自由市場理念的人來說，是一個有點可怕的術語。

So just what is 'trickle-down' economics and why did it cause the U.K.'s economic strategy to implode?

那麼，到底什麼是 "涓滴 "經濟學，為什麼它會導致英國的經濟戰略內爆？

'Trickle-down' economics is the theory that deregulation and tax cuts at

涓涓細流 "經濟學是這樣一種理論，即放松管制和減稅在

the top levels of society, namely for businesses and the wealthy, will eventually trickle down

社會最高層，即企業和富人，最終會向下滲透。

to benefit the population at large.

以使廣大民眾受益。

Coined as a phrase by political opponents critical of top-level tax cuts, the term trickle-down

涓滴效應這個詞是由責備高層減稅的政治反對派創造的。

falls within, but differs from, wider “supply-side" theory, which focuses on increasing the supply of labor

屬於更廣泛的 "供應方 "理論，但與之不同，後者側重於增加勞動力的供應。

and advocates lowering taxes for all.

並主張為所有人降低稅收。

People who believe in the kind of trickle-down about cutting taxes for the wealthy, for the entrepreneurs,

相信為富人、為企業家減稅的那種涓滴效應的人。

their supply-side story is that there will be such a strong response

他們的供應方故事是，會有如此強烈的反應

of new people founding firms, more Bill Gates, more Elon Musks, because there's more of

新人創辦公司，更多的比爾-蓋茨，更多的埃隆-馬斯克，因為有了更多的

an incentive to come up with the ideas if you can get big rewards for them.

如果你能得到巨大的獎勵，就能激勵你想出這些想法。

The idea is closely linked to the Laffer curve, an economic model popularized in the 1970s

這一想法與拉弗曲線密切相關，拉弗曲線是20世紀70年代流行的一種經濟模型。

by U.S. economist Arthur Laffer, which showed the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue.

美國經濟學家阿瑟-拉弗(Arthur Laffer)的著作，顯示了稅率和稅收之間的關係。

According to the model, when taxes pass a certain level, they become counterproductive

根據該模型，當稅收超過一定水準時，它們就會產生反作用。

for increasing tax revenue.

以增加稅收收入。

Crucially, that tipping point tended to come when taxes were prohibitively high, over 50%.

至關重要的是，當稅收高得令人望而卻步，超過50%時，這一轉捩點往往就會出現。

He argued that if you cut taxes, for example for the very wealthy, they pay for themselves.

他認為，如果你減稅，例如對非常富有的人減稅，他們會自己付錢。

The idea is that if you cut taxes for the wealthy, they work so hard, they generate

這個想法是，如果你為富人減稅，他們工作非常努力，他們會產生

so much more growth and tax revenue, you actually end up with more tax.

如此多的增長和稅收，你實際上最終會有更多的稅收。

Trickle-down economics truly rose to fame in the 1980s under U.S. President Ronald Reagan

涓滴經濟學真正成名於20世紀80年代美國總統羅納德-里根時期。

and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who were both strong proponents of tax cuts as a way

和英國首相瑪格麗特-撒切爾，他們都是減稅的堅定支持者，作為一種方式。

of spurring overall prosperity.

刺激整體繁榮的作用。

Now some critics complain your tax cut is too big, that it costs government too much.

現在，一些批評者抱怨你的減稅幅度太大，讓政府花費太多。

Well, this may be a shock to them, but that money isn't the government's to begin with.

好吧，這可能讓他們感到震驚，但這些錢本來就不是政府的。

More recently, Donald Trump campaigned on “the largest tax cuts in the history

最近，唐納德-特朗普在競選中提出 "歷史上最大的減稅"。

of the United States of America."

美國的"。

Meanwhile, in France, President Emmanuel Macron abolished the country's wealth tax in 2018

與此同時，在法國，總統埃馬紐埃爾-馬克龍在2018年廢除了該國的財富稅

and joined the likes of Ireland in reducing corporation tax and deregulating industry

並與愛爾蘭等國一起降低公司稅和放鬆行業管制

in the name of growth.

以增長的名義。

But trickle-down economics has come up against harsh criticism over the years, with some

但是，多年來，涓滴經濟學受到了嚴厲的責備，一些人

political scientists dubbing it a “zombie” theory; an idea which has endured in public discourse

政治學家稱其為 "殭屍 "理論；這一觀點在公眾討論中經久不衰。

despite long being disproven.

儘管早已被推翻。

In a 2015 paper, the International Monetary Fund noted that “a rising income share of the top 20 percent

在2015年的一份文件中，國際貨幣基金組織指出，"收入最高的20%的人的收入份額不斷上升

results in lower growth — that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down.”

導致較低的增長--也就是說，當富人變得更富有時，利益並沒有滴下來。"

If you look, say, over the last 30, 40 years, a lot of countries that have reduced the tax

如果你看一下，比如說，在過去的30、40年裡，很多國家都減少了稅收

rate on the most wealthy, the U.S., in particular, that hasn't led to some boom of growth.

對最富有的人的利率，特別是美國，這並沒有導致一些增長的繁榮。

The top 1% have got a lot, lot bigger shares of the pie.

前1%的人已經得到了很多很多的份額。

In the U.S. between 1979 and 2007, the net income of the top 1% of earners nearly tripled

在美國，1979年至2007年期間，收入最高的1%的人的淨收入幾乎增加了兩倍。

while those in the bottom 20% rose by just 16%.

而處於底層的20%的人只增加了16%。

The findings have been mirrored over the years in multiple reports.

多年來，這些發現在多份報告中都得到了反映。

A 2020 study of five decades of tax cuts, spanning 18 wealthy countries, found that the effect

2020年對橫跨18個富裕國家的五十年減稅的研究發現，效果

of “major tax cuts for the rich on real GDP per capita is close to zero and statistically insignificant.”

"對富人的重大減稅對實際人均GDP的影響接近零，在統計學上不顯著。"

Still, in 2022, Liz Truss campaigned and came to power on promises of tax cuts, particularly

然而，在2022年，Liz Truss在競選中和上臺時都承諾要減稅，特別是

for the top end of the economic spectrum.

為經濟光譜的高端。

The U.K. government, for its part, has resisted the term “trickle-down ecconomics,”

英國政府則抵制 "涓滴經濟 "一詞。

instead referring to its 'Economic Growth Plan' as a series of supply-side reforms.

而將其 "經濟增長計劃 "稱為一系列的供應方改革。

Matthew Lesh is head of public policy at London's Institute of Economic Affairs,

馬修-萊什是倫敦經濟事務研究所的公共政策主管。

a free market, right-leaning financial think tank that works closely with the U.K.'s Conservative Party.

一個與英國保守黨緊密合作的自由市場、右傾金融智庫。

I reject the characterization of trickle-down economics in that I don't think that's

我拒絕接受涓滴經濟學的定性，因為我不認為那是

a philosophy that anyone is doing or supports.

一個任何人都在做或支持的哲學。

I think that's a bit of a slur.

我認為這有點汙衊。

What I would say is that the kind of policies the government's talking about, in terms

我想說的是，政府所談論的那種政策，在

of boosting productivity, increasing economic growth, expanding the size of the pie and

促進生產力，提高經濟增長，擴大蛋糕的規模，並在此基礎上提高經濟效益。

making it bigger so everyone can get a bigger piece, that kind of a policy agenda is very

讓它變得更大，以便每個人都能得到更大的份額，這種政策議程是非常

sensible and reasonable and something that I think can increase prosperity.

合理的，我認為可以增加繁榮的東西。

The challenge is making that politically palatable.

面臨的挑戰是如何使其在政治上具有可接受性。

That challenge, as it turned out, was entirely underestimated.

事實證明，這一挑戰被完全低估了。

In a September 2022 “mini-budget,” the U.K.'s then Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng

在2022年9月的 "小型預算 "中，英國當時的財政部長誇西-誇騰

announced £45 billion worth of corporate and income tax cuts, including removing the cap

宣佈了價值450億英鎊的企業和所得稅減免，包括取消上限。

on banker bonuses, financial markets balked, and sterling was sent into freefall.

在銀行家的獎金上，金融市場出現了異議，英鎊被送入自由落體。

Britain's central bank, the Bank of England, was forced to step in with an emergency bond-buying operation

英國的中央銀行--英格蘭銀行被迫介入，進行緊急債券購買行動

to restore credibility to chaotic markets.

以恢復混亂市場的可信度。

Meanwhile, the unfunded tax cuts drew global criticism.

同時，沒有資金支持的減稅措施引起了全球的責備。

In a rare statement, the International Monetary Fund said the plans would “likely increase inequality”

在一份罕見的聲明中，國際貨幣基金組織表示，這些計劃 "可能會增加不平等"。

and urged the government to “reevaluate the tax measures,

並敦促政府 "重新評估稅收措施。

especially those that benefit high income earners.”

特別是那些有利於高收入者的"。

Days later, the Treasury was forced to U-turn on one of its most controversial policies

幾天後，財政部被迫對其最有爭議的政策之一進行了調頭。

of scrapping the top 45% rate of income tax for those earning over £150,000.

廢除收入超過15萬英鎊的最高45%的所得稅。

It was the wrong thing to do.

這是不對的事情。

Within weeks, Kwarteng was given the boot and, with it, most of his economic policies

在幾周內，誇滕被踢出局，隨之而來的是他的大部分經濟政策。

were thrown out by successor Jeremy Hunt.

被繼任者傑里米-亨特扔掉了。

There are going to be difficult decisions in terms of public spending cuts, in terms

在削減公共開支方面，將有困難的決定，在以下方面也是如此

of increases of taxation.

稅收的增加。

The government's strategy was considered particularly ill-timed as the country faces

政府的戰略被認為是特別不合時宜的，因為該國面臨著

its worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, amid soaring inflation and higher energy costs.

在飆升的通貨膨脹和更高的能源成本下，其生活成本危機是一代人中最嚴重的。

As of September 2022, U.K. inflation hit a 40-year-high of 10.1%, after dipping slightly in August.

截至2022年9月，英國的通貨膨脹率達到了40年來的最高值10.1%，在8月份略有下降。

The Bank of England, alongside central banks across the globe, has been aggressively raising

英格蘭銀行與全球各地的中央銀行一起，一直在積極地提高

interest rates in a bid to cool the economy and bring down prices.

爭取為經濟降溫並降低價格。

Now, with inflation going up and interest rates going up, having big, unfunded tax cuts

現在，隨著通貨膨脹率的上升和利率的上升，有大的、沒有資金的減稅措施

is going to throw fuel on the fire.

是要火上澆油。

It's like Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have got their foot on the fiscal accelerator and

這就像Liz Truss和Kwasi Kwarteng把他們的腳放在財政加速器上，並且

the Bank of England's got its foot down on the breaks.

英格蘭銀行的腳已經踩在了剎車上。

That's not a good way to drive a car.

這不是一個駕駛汽車的好方法。

Of course, tax cuts are just one approach to economic policy.

當然，減稅只是經濟政策的一種方法。

So what could be a better alternative which improves living standards and prosperity across the board?

那麼，有什麼更好的選擇，可以全面提高生活水準和繁榮？

Professor Eric Beinhocker, founder at the Institute for New Economic Thinking,

埃裡克-賓霍克教授，新經濟思想研究所的創始人。

an Oxford-based public policy research center, thinks he has a solution:

位於牛津的公共政策研究中心，認為他有一個解決方案。

something he calls “middle-out” economics.

他稱之為 "中出 "經濟學的東西。

What does actually increase long-term growth are investments in the broad middle of the economy.

真正能提高長期增長的是對經濟的廣泛中間部分的投資。

In middle-income households, their education, skills, the infrastructure that they use and

在中等收入家庭中，他們的教育、技能、他們使用的基礎設施和

doing things that can increase their productivity and wages over time.

做一些能夠在一段時間內提高他們的生產力和工資的事情。

It's middle-income households that do the bulk of the spending in the economy,

是中等收入家庭在經濟中做了大部分的支出。

and that spending then creates real incentives for businesses to invest in new products and services

而這些支出又為企業投資新產品和服務創造了真正的激勵。

and innovation and grow.

和創新而成長。

So you get this virtuous circle between demand and innovation and growth.

是以，你會得到需求和創新以及增長之間的這種良性循環。

The theory has some high-level stakeholders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, who made

該理論有一些高級別的利益相關者，包括美國總統喬-拜登，他提出了

the policy a central tenet of his March 2022 State of the Union address.

該政策是他在2022年3月國情諮文中的核心宗旨。

Build the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, not from the top down.

從下往上和從中間往外建設經濟，而不是從上往下。

President Biden, who came from a working-class background himself and spent much of his career

拜登總統本人出身於工人階級，他的大部分職業生涯都是在工人階級背景下度過的。

with working families and very committed to labor issues and so on, I think he intuitively

我認為他對工作家庭和對勞工問題等非常重視，我認為他的直覺是

kind of got the logic.

有點明白其中的道理。

And so his administration has actually been quite a dramatic shift in direction.

是以，他的政府實際上已經在方向上有了相當大的轉變。

But as for the U.K., it might be some time yet before it recovers from its economic experiment.

但對於英國來說，它可能還需要一段時間才能從經濟試驗中恢復過來。

For the average voter, they want to know if their life is going to get better over time.

對於普通選民來說，他們想知道隨著時間的推移，他們的生活是否會變得更好。

And so being able to show how these things go together in a positive way, that a more

是以，能夠展示這些東西是如何以積極的方式結合在一起的，一個更多的

fair and inclusive society will also be longer term more productive and growing society,

公平和包容的社會也將是更長期的、更有生產力的和不斷增長的社會。

I think, has the benefit of being economically true and a very positive political narrative.

我認為，具有經濟上的真實性和非常積極的政治敘述的好處。

The way, ultimately, to deal with this, I think, is being able to get that economic

我認為，最終處理這個問題的方法是能夠獲得經濟上的支持。

growth in the medium to long-term, which is through those supply-side reforms.

中長期的增長，就是通過這些供應方的改革。

If you grow the economy, it means you can all have higher incomes, it means it'll

如果你發展經濟，這意味著你們都可以有更高的收入，這意味著它將

be much easier to pay down the government debt as well as fund public services, and

償還政府債務和資助公共服務要容易得多，而且

that's what's been lacking in the U.K. for the last decade.

這正是英國在過去十年中所缺乏的。

So I think the way to square the circle in the medium to long term is through that economic growth.

是以，我認為從中長期來看，解決這個問題的方法是通過經濟增長。

In the short to medium term, I think it's very, very difficult, both politically and economically.

在中短期內，我認為在政治上和經濟上都非常、非常困難。