Name: 與史蒂芬-約翰遜探討決策的藝術 (The Art of Decision-Making with Steven Johnson)
Uploaded: 2022-10-30T18:35:36.000Z
Duration: 6 min 59 s

to 不定詞

Darwin, particularly during the late 30s, when he was developing the theory of natural selection, where Darwin Interrupts his ruminations, on the nature of life and evolution to debate another pressing issue, the slightly more personal in nature, which is whether or not he should get married.

達爾文，特別是在30年代末，當他在發展自然選擇理論時，達爾文中斷了他的思考，關於生命和進化的本質，以辯論另一個緊迫的問題，在性質上稍微更個人化，這就是他是否應該結婚。

And Darwin basically creates a pros and cons list.

而達爾文基本上創建了一個利弊清單。

He's debating whether he should marry Emma Wedgwood at this point is like which he eventually ends up doing on the side of not getting married.

他在爭論是否應該與艾瑪-韋奇伍德結婚，在這一點上是喜歡的，他最終在不結婚方面做了。

He said freedom to go where one liked choice of society and little of it may be my favorite conversation of clever men at clubs.

他說，自由地去一個人喜歡的地方選擇社會，很少有可能是我最喜歡的聰明人在俱樂部的談話。

I like to think that he was thinking about the R.

Uh there's Children if it pleased God, which is interesting.

呃，有兒童，如果它讓上帝高興，這很有趣。

He writes out as someone who famously became an agnostic later in life, constant companion and friend and old age object to be beloved and played with better than a dog anyhow.

他寫出來的是一個著名的後來成為不可知論者的人，恆久的伴侶和朋友，老年的對象，無論如何要比狗更愛和玩。

So the pros and cons list is the one technique that most of us have learned at some point in our lives for making a complex decision franklin is doing this in the 17 seventies star wins doing it in the 18 thirties.

是以，利弊清單是我們大多數人在生活中的某個時刻學到的一種技術，用於做出複雜的決定，富蘭克林在17世紀70年代就這樣做了，星際贏家在18世紀30年代就這樣做了。

And the fact that we're still doing it suggested to me that the science of making complex decisions was somewhat stagnant that surely there were better techniques out there.

而我們仍然在這樣做的事實向我表明，做出複雜決定的科學有點停滯不前，肯定有更好的技術存在。

There were better ways to think about these kinds of choices.

有更好的方法來考慮這些類型的選擇。

A lot of the research that I had read up until this point about decision making brain had been focused on gut decisions, um blink decisions in the, in the kind of Malcolm Gladwell phrase, the kind of fast system, one brain decisions.

在這之前，我讀到的很多關於決策大腦的研究都集中在直覺決策上，嗯，用馬爾科姆-格拉德威爾的說法，就是那種快速系統、單腦決策的眨眼決定。

And it occurred to me while that research is incredibly interesting.

而我突然想到，而這項研究是令人難以置信的有趣。

There's a lot to be said about it and we've learned a lot about how we make rapid fire decisions.

有很多東西可以說，我們已經學到了很多關於我們如何做出快速的決定。

That the decisions that really matter the most in our lives should not be instinctive, decisions should not be gut decisions.

在我們生活中真正最重要的決定不應該是本能的，決定不應該是直覺的決定。

They require deliberation, they require mulling.

Um, they require time and meditation and When I stumbled across this pros and cons list from Darwin, I was in the middle of my own kind of equivalent decision of trying to decide whether we should move after many years, 20 years living in New York City.

嗯，它們需要時間和冥想，當我偶然發現達爾文的這份利弊清單時，我正處於我自己的那種同等決定中，試圖決定我們是否應該在紐約市生活了多年、20年後搬家。

I as a kind of mid life crisis decided that I must live in California in thinking about that choice and thinking about all the different levels of experience and kind of scales of experience that are implicated in a decision like that because you think about moving, say from the city to the suburbs, you think about all the different values that are at stake and a choice like that, right?

作為一種中年危機，我決定我必須住在加州，在思考這個選擇的時候，思考所有不同層次的經驗和那種牽涉到這樣一個決定的經驗規模，因為你考慮到，比如說從城市搬到郊區，你考慮到所有不同的價值，這關係到這樣一個選擇，對嗎？

There is your own personal happiness, there's the personal happiness of your spouse or your Children, there's your relationship towards the city towards nature.

有你自己的個人幸福，有你的配偶或孩子的個人幸福，有你對城市對自然的關係。

Do you want to live in a sidewalk centric culture or a car centric culture, there's, you know, the schools that your kids are moving to moving into, there's the real estate values are all these, there's economics are all implicated in a choice like that.

你想生活在以人行道為中心的文化還是以汽車為中心的文化，還有，你知道，你的孩子要搬到的學校，還有房地產的價值，所有這些，還有經濟都牽涉到這樣的選擇。

So how do you go about making those kinds of decisions?

那麼，你是如何做出這類決定的呢？

There's a great quote from the nobel laureate, thomas Schelling that gets to this, which is one thing a person cannot do, no matter how rigorous his analysis or heroic his imagination is to draw up a list of things that would never occur to him.

諾貝爾獎得主托馬斯-謝林有一句話說得很好，那就是一個人不能做的一件事，無論他的分析多麼嚴謹，也無論他的想象力多麼豪邁，都要列出一個他永遠不會想到的事情。

And in some sense, when we're making these choices, we have to force ourselves to start to imagine things that don't necessarily come to our mind instinctively.

在某種意義上，當我們做出這些選擇時，我們必須強迫自己開始想象那些不一定會本能地出現在我們頭腦中的東西。

One of the key things that comes out of the science and scholarship on this is to divide up these decisions into different phases.

在這方面的科學和學術研究中，一個關鍵的事情是將這些決定分為不同的階段。

Sometimes those phases are known as a divergent and then convergent phase where you're trying to come up with lots of alternatives, lots of different factors, not try and narrow down to a fine choice and then you eventually get to a stage where you finally make the decision.

有時這些階段被稱為先發散後收斂的階段，在這個階段，你試圖提出很多備選方案，很多不同的因素，而不是試圖縮小到一個精細的選擇，然後你最終到達一個階段，最終做出決定。

I call that initial stage, the mapping stage.

我把這個初始階段稱為 "繪圖階段"。

You're trying to understand all the different variables that are working the decision and try and also explore other alternatives, other potential paths that might not have occurred to you Originally, there's a wonderful scholar on the business side of this and paul nut who spent many, many years analyzing real world corporate decisions and looking at the techniques that people used or more often than not the lack of techniques that people used to make these decisions and then looking at the outcomes like were people happy in the end with the decision that they've made?

你正試圖瞭解所有不同的變量，這些變量對決策起作用，並嘗試和探索其他替代方案，其他可能的路徑，這些可能沒有發生在你身上 原本，在商業方面有一個很好的學者，保羅-努特，他花了很多很多年來分析現實世界的企業決策，看看人們用來做這些決策的技術，或者更多時候人們缺乏技術，然後看看結果，比如人們最終對他們做出的決定是否滿意？

And he looked at hundreds and hundreds of decisions, you know, should we launch this new product?

他看了成百上千的決定，你知道，我們是否應該推出這個新產品？

You know, should we open up this new branch in this new city?

你知道，我們是否應該在這個新城市開設這個新的分支機構？

All these, all these kind of long term decisions in the corporate world.

所有這些，所有這些在企業界的長期決定。

And what he found was that uh most people making decisions did not have a phase in the kind of mapping phase, in the early stage of the decision where they actively sought out other alternatives.

他發現，大多數人在做決定時都沒有一個階段，即在決定的早期階段，他們積極尋找其他的替代方案。

Most people actually did what not called whether or not decisions basically should we do this or not?

大多數人實際上做的不是所謂的是否決定，基本上我們應該做這個還是不做？

And they kind of debated this one choice and either pull the trigger on it or decided not to.

他們對這一選擇進行了辯論，要麼扣動扳機，要麼決定不做。

And those decisions in general over, you know, overall tended to be unsuccessful.

而這些決定總的來說，你知道，總的來說往往是不成功的。

What not found was that there was a small subset of decisions made by folks who took time at the beginning to explore other alternatives and to think about whether there wasn't another path on the table potentially that they could they could explore.

沒有發現的是，有一小部分決定是由人們做出的，他們在開始時花時間探索其他替代方案，並思考是否有另一條潛在的道路可以讓他們探索。

And folks who took that extra step basically took what not described as a whether or not decision and turned it into a which one decision, those decisions were much more likely to end up successful.

而那些採取了額外步驟的人，基本上把不被描述為是否的決定，變成了哪一個決定，這些決定更有可能最終取得成功。

So that early mapping stage, in a sense, create a list of things that would never occur to you.

是以，早期的繪圖階段，從某種意義上說，創造一個你永遠不會想到的事情的清單。

Uncover these other paths is really important to the process.

揭開這些其他的路徑，對這個過程真的很重要。

So, great example, in the in the domain of urban planning, there's a lot of discussion and farsighted about urban planning, kind of collective decisions.

所以，很好的例子，在城市規劃領域，有很多關於城市規劃的討論和遠見，是一種集體決策。

With all of this research, I think there is a significant case to be made that we should be teaching decision making.

通過所有這些研究，我認為有一個重要的理由，即我們應該教授決策。

There's a great body of of research now and tools and strategies to be used whatever you end up doing with your life, whatever field you go into, you will use that skill.

現在有大量的研究和工具及策略可供使用，無論你最終做什麼，無論你進入什麼領域，你都會用到這種技能。

Even if you have no career, you will need skills in making complex decisions in your life.

即使你沒有職業，你也需要在生活中做出複雜決定的技能。

If you think of all the things in grade school and high school and college that you learn that you never use again after you take that final exam decision making, complex decision making is a skill that everyone has a need for.

如果你想想在小學、中學和大學裡學到的所有東西，在你參加期末考試後就再也用不上了決策，複雜的決策是每個人都需要的一種技能。

And I don't mean this in a purely kind of utilitarian vocational kind of sense of school.

我的意思並不是說這是一種純粹的功利性的職業學校。

But if you think about what that class would look like, it would be wonderfully multidisciplinary, incredibly diverse in terms of the perspectives that would be brought to the classroom, right?

但是，如果你想一想這個班級會是什麼樣子，它將是奇妙的多學科的，令人難以置信的多樣化的觀點，將被帶到課堂上，對嗎？

You would learn from behavioral economics, you would learn from the utilitarian philosophers, you would read great novels, you would read about military history, you would you would read about cognitive science and neuroscience.

你會從行為經濟學中學習，你會從功利主義哲學家那裡學習，你會閱讀偉大的小說，你會閱讀軍事歷史，你會你會閱讀認知科學和神經科學。

 It would be an incredible mix of different perspectives, but it would all be in the service of a skill that everyone would use one way or another in their lives, personal and public. 

這將是一個令人難以置信的不同觀點的組合，但它都將為每個人在其生活中以某種方式使用的技能服務，無論是個人還是公共。