and most of the votes went to two frontrunners.

而大部分選票都投給了兩位領先者。

One was current president and far-right leader. Jair Bolsonaro.

一個是現任總統和極右翼領導人。 賈爾-博爾索納羅。

And the other was Brazil's former president, the left-wing politician

而另一位是巴西的前總統，左翼政治家

Luiz Inácio da Silva, also known as Lula.

路易斯-伊納西奧-達席爾瓦，又稱盧拉。

For months leading up to the election

在選舉前的幾個月裡

Lula polled very well against Bolsonaro

盧拉對博爾索納羅的民調非常好

and was expected to win comfortably in the first round.

並有望在第一輪中輕鬆獲勝。

But when the results came in, Lula's lead was small.

但當結果出來時，盧拉的領先優勢很小。

As of this video, he and Bolsonaro

截止到這段視頻，他和博爾索納羅

are set to face each other in a runoff.

他們將在決勝局中相互對決。

Lula is Brazil's most famous and popular politician.

盧拉是巴西最著名和最受歡迎的政治家。

At one point during his presidency,

在他擔任總統期間，曾一度。

his approval rating was nearly 90%.

他的支持率接近90%。

But Brazilian politics has changed

但巴西的政治已經改變

and the story of Lula's career is a good way to see exactly how.

而盧拉的職業生涯的故事是一個很好的方式，可以看到究竟如何。

Lula's left wing politics

盧拉的左翼政治

are rooted in his days as a factory worker and a union leader.

他的作品植根於他作為工廠工人和工會領袖的日子。

That's where he began his career as a politician.

他就是在那裡開始了他的政治家生涯。

During Brazil's military dictatorship

在巴西的軍事獨裁統治期間

Lula led massive strikes and protests.

盧拉上司了大規模的罷工和抗議活動。

By the 1980s, he had helped organize

到20世紀80年代，他已經幫助組織了

thousands of trade union supporters into a political party.

數以千計的工會支持者成為一個政黨。

The Workers Party, or the PT.

工人黨，即PT。

Lula's coalition drew mainly from Brazil's political left.

盧拉的聯盟主要來自巴西的政治左翼。

It included the working class

它包括工人階級

low income people, left-leaning Catholic voters

低收入人群，左傾的天主教選民

Afro-Brazilians and Indigenous people.

非洲裔巴西人和土著人。

This is a pretty unique arrangement of forces.

這是一種相當獨特的力量安排。

In my opinion, it's one of the things that allowed the Worker's Party

在我看來，這是允許工人黨

to grow and become so strong.

來成長並變得如此強大。

In 1989, Lula ran as his party's candidate for president.

1989年，盧拉作為他所在政黨的總統候選人参加競選。

He made it to the second round and lost by only 4 million votes.

他進入了第二輪，僅以400萬票之差敗北。

Then he lost again in 1994 and again in 1998.

然後，他在1994年和1998年再次敗北。

His base was growing, but not yet enough

他的基礎正在增長，但還不夠

for him to win a presidential election.

為他贏得總統選舉。

During much of this time

在這段時間的大部分時間裡

Brazil was experiencing an economic crisis.

巴西正在經歷一場經濟危機。

At one point, inflation was so out of control

通貨膨脹曾一度失去控制

that the country switched its new currency

該國轉換了其新貨幣

5 separate times in 7 years.

在7年中分別有5次。

And about a fifth of the country was in poverty.

而全國大約有五分之一的人處於貧困之中。

In the late 1990s, Brazil's center-right led government

在20世紀90年代末，巴西中右翼上司的政府

passed a series of dramatic economic reforms.

通過了一系列戲劇性的經濟改革。

They brought inflation down by establishing a stable currency

他們通過建立一個穩定的貨幣來降低通貨膨脹

and they brought down poverty.

而他們帶來了貧窮。

But their recovery also left much of the country behind...

但是，他們的復甦也將該國的大部分地區甩在身後...

including many in Lula's coalition.

包括盧拉的聯盟中的許多人。

But in 2002, when Lula ran for president a fourth time

但在2002年，當盧拉第四次競選總統時

he tried something a little bit different.

他嘗試了一點不同的東西。

In the 2002 race, Lula brought several members

在2002年的競選中，盧拉把幾個成員

of Brazil's conservative and center-right parties

巴西的保守派和中右翼政黨的

into his campaign.

進入他的競選活動。

Including prominent businessman, José Alencar

包括著名商人José Alencar

as his running mate.

作為他的競選夥伴。

By including them, Lula expanded his coalition

通過納入他們，盧拉擴大了他的聯盟

attracting the support of center-right voters

吸引中右翼選民的支持

like business owners and bankers.

像企業主和銀行家。

Lula's this guy that he can go to a board meeting

盧拉是這樣的人，他可以去參加一個董事會會議

at a major bank or to a poor favela

在一家大銀行或在一個貧窮的貧民區

and speak in a way that people will relate to him.

並以人們會對他產生共鳴的方式說話。

This new kind of coalition

這種新的聯盟

led to Lula winning his first presidential election.

導致盧拉贏得了他的第一次總統選舉。

In Lula's first term, Brazil's economy grew rapidly

在盧拉的第一個任期內，巴西的經濟迅速增長

mostly because of a booming trade partnership with China.

主要是因為與中國的貿易伙伴關係蓬勃發展。

He benefited from a magical economic moment.

他受益於一個神奇的經濟時刻。

He used this cash flow to finance a new social welfare

他利用這些現金流為一個新的社會福利機構提供資金。

and cash transfer program: Bolsa Familia

和現金轉移計劃。Bolsa Familia

which gave Brazilians a stipend

該計劃向巴西人提供津貼

for ensuring their children were attending school

以確保他們的孩子上學

and up to date on their vaccines.

並及時更新他們的疫苗。

It was a way to give people money for their immediate needs

這是一種給人們提供資金以滿足其迫切需要的方式。

while getting them to put their kids on the path

同時讓他們把自己的孩子送上道路。

that would eventually help them escape that cycle of poverty.

這將最終幫助他們擺脫貧困的循環。

This program, along with other reforms

這一方案與其他改革一起

like increasing the minimum wage

如提高最低工資

also grew his coalition even further.

也進一步擴大了他的聯盟。

And more Brazilians voted for left and center-left politicians

而更多的巴西人投票給左派和中左派政治家

politicians across the country.

全國的政治家們。

The economy picked up

經濟回升

and then we had this massive period of growth.

然後我們有了這個大規模的增長期。

Lula became an unstoppable force.

盧拉成為一股不可阻擋的力量。

By the end of his first term in office

在他的第一個任期結束時

Lula's approval rating reached over 60%.

盧拉的支持率達到60%以上。

And even though his administration began to attract accusations

儘管他的政府開始招致指責

of bribery and corruption...

的賄賂和腐敗......

Lula's unprecedented popularity and coalition building

盧拉前所未有的人氣和聯盟建設

led to a reelection victory in 2006.

導致了2006年的連任勝利。

By the end of Lula's second term in office

在盧拉的第二個任期結束時

GDP was the highest in Brazil's history.

國內生產總值是巴西曆史上最高的。

And so was the president's approval rating.

而總統的支持率也是如此。

OBAMA: The most popular politician on earth.

奧巴馬：地球上最受歡迎的政治家。

In 2009, Lula picked a fellow Worker's Party member

2009年，盧拉挑選了一位工人黨的同事

Dilma Rousseff, as his successor.

迪爾瑪-羅塞夫，作為他的繼任者。

She inherited his coalition

她繼承了他的聯盟

and easily won the presidency in 2010.

並在2010年輕鬆贏得總統職位。

Early in her administration

在她執政初期

global demand for commodities fell

全球對商品的需求下降

which led to a recession in Brazil...

這導致了巴西的經濟衰退...

and her approach to managing the economy

以及她管理經濟的方法

cost her some support from the center-right business community.

讓她失去了一些來自中右翼商業界的支持。

Her administration also faced accusations of corruption

她的政府也面臨著對腐敗的指責

which cost her even more support.

這使她失去了更多的支持。

It didn't help that she was not a good politician.

她不是一個好的政治家，這一點也沒有幫助。

She did not negotiate with Congress in a very skillful way.

她沒有以一種非常巧妙的方式與國會進行談判。

And the economic guidance of her administration

以及她的政府的經濟指導

was very flawed.

是非常有缺陷的。

And then in 2014, something happened

然後在2014年，發生了一件事

that would lead to the entire coalition's collapse.

這將導致整個聯盟的崩潰。

A government investigation

一項政府調查

found that many Workers Party officials

發現許多工人黨官員

were involved in a corrupt scheme

參與了一個貪汙計劃

with Brazil's state owned oil company

與巴西的國有石油公司

including Rousseff...

包括羅塞夫...

whose approval rating tanked and in 2016

其支持率下降，在2016年

she was removed from office.

她被免職。

Lula was also implicated for allegedly taking bribes.

盧拉也因涉嫌受賄而受到牽連。

He was convicted in 2017 and sent to prison.

他在2017年被定罪並被送入監獄。

But unlike Rousseff, he remained popular.

但與羅塞夫不同，他仍然很受歡迎。

For a lot of people, despite Lula going to jail

對很多人來說，儘管盧拉進了監獄

they still love him.

他們仍然愛他。

For one, a lot of people say

其一，很多人說

"Oh, they all rob us."

"哦，他們都在搶劫我們。"

"At least this guy was giving us back something."

"至少這傢伙給了我們一些回報。"

But with no one there to hold the left coalition together.

但由於沒有人在那裡將左翼聯盟維持在一起。

The opportunity emerged for an unusual politician

一個不尋常的政治家的機會出現了

to start building his own from the right.

從右邊開始建立他自己的。

Throughout Rousseff's impeachment

在羅塞夫被彈劾的整個過程中

retired military officer Jair Bolsonaro

退休軍官Jair Bolsonaro

was laying the groundwork for his chance at the presidency

正在為他擔任總統的機會打下基礎

in the 2018 election.

在2018年的選舉中。

Bolsonaro's core supporters were evangelicals

博爾索納羅的核心支持者是福音派人士

farmers, businessmen, and anti-abortion voters.

農民、商人和反墮胎的選民。

He was the candidate of the far-right

他是極右派的候選人

but he also gained the support of the center-right

但他也獲得了中右翼的支持。

and even some leftist voters

甚至是一些左派選民

who are disillusioned with the Workers Party

對工人黨感到失望的人

creating a unique coalition.

創建一個獨特的聯盟。

Meanwhile, Lula's former coalition

與此同時，盧拉的前聯盟

was split between several candidates

被幾個候選人瓜分了

helping propel Bolsonaro to an easy victory...

幫助推動博爾索納羅輕鬆獲勝...

and signaling a new political moment in the country.

並預示著該國的一個新的政治時刻。

What Bolsanaro did in 2018 was unlike what we had ever seen.

博爾薩納羅在2018年所做的事情與我們所見過的不一樣。

It was a real shift.

這是一個真正的轉變。

The hard-right was replacing the moderate-right...

強硬的右派正在取代溫和的右派......。

at the center of the political arena.

處於政治舞臺的中心。

In office, Bolsonaro oversaw further destruction of the Amazon

在任期內，博爾索納羅監督了對亞馬遜的進一步破壞

extreme hunger and Brazil being one of the worst

巴西是世界上飢餓最嚴重的國家之一。

impacted by COVID with over 680,000 deaths.

受COVID的影響，有68萬多人死亡。

Brazil's GDP dipped back down

巴西的GDP回落

and he also took a confrontational stance with Brazilian democracy

他還對巴西的民主採取了對抗性的立場

trying to control the media and undermining the Supreme Court.

試圖控制媒體和破壞最高法院。

Due to these factors, his popularity never exceeded 35%.

由於這些因素，他的知名度從未超過35%。

In 2019, Brazil's Supreme Court released Lula from prison

2019年，巴西最高法院將盧拉從監獄中釋放出來

and later annulled his convictions

並在後來撤銷了對他的定罪

enabling him to run again in 2022.

使他能夠在2022年再次競選。

Lula also positioned himself

盧拉還將自己定位為

as a pro-democracy candidate in the race.

作為一個親民主的候選人参加競選。

He worked to assemble another strong and diverse coalition

他努力組建了另一個強大而多樣的聯盟

from across the political spectrum.

來自不同政治光譜的人。

Lula has made a front that maybe cannot get broader.

盧拉已經建立了一個也許無法得到更廣泛的陣線。

Eight former presidential candidates from left and right

八位前總統候選人從左到右

a big part of the business community.

是商業社會的重要組成部分。

Lula even courted evangelicals by campaigning at churches.

盧拉甚至通過在教堂開展競選活動來爭取福音派人士。

At the same time, Bolsonaro enacted social reform programs

同時，博爾索納羅頒佈了社會改革方案

to court low-income and working class Brazilians

爭取低收入和工人階級的巴西人

who are usually aligned with Lula.

他們通常與盧拉保持一致。

But as the 2022 election approached

但隨著2022年選舉的臨近

Lula's strategy seemed to be working more than Bolsonaro's.

盧拉的策略似乎比博爾索納羅的更有效。

The polls were spot-on in regards to Lula.

關於盧拉的民意調查是準確的。

Lula finished the first round with around 48% of the vote.

盧拉以大約48%的票數完成了第一輪投票。

But they were dead wrong about Bolsonaro.

但他們對博爾索納羅的看法大錯特錯。

Lula still won the first round,

盧拉還是贏了第一輪。

but Bolsonaro outperformed every poll leading up to the election.

但博爾索納羅的表現超過了選舉前的每一次民意調查。

And the bigger surprise was in Brazil's Congress

而更大的驚喜是在巴西的國會中

where the right wing candidates aligned with Bolsonaro

其中與博爾索納羅結盟的右翼候選人

won the majority.

贏得了多數。

So even if Lula goes on to win the presidency...

是以，即使盧拉繼續贏得總統職位...

he'll face a stronger opposition than he ever has before.

他將面臨比以往任何時候都更強大的對手。

Lula has made a lot of commitments.

盧拉已經做出了很多承諾。

It remains to be seen

還有待觀察

how he will be able to implement that.

他將如何能夠實施這一點。

This is a force that has to be reckoned with.

這是一股必須要考慮的力量。

It is part of Brazilian mainstream politics

它是巴西主流政治的一部分

and will continue like that for years to come.

並將在未來幾年內繼續如此。