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  • On September 6, the Ukrainian army launched an attack on the town of Balakliya.

    9月6日,烏克蘭軍隊對Balakliya鎮發起了攻擊。

  • It had been held by the Russian army for more than 6 months.

    它已被俄羅斯軍隊佔領了6個多月。

  • But by September 8, the Ukrainian army had recaptured it.

    但到9月8日,烏克蘭軍隊奪回了它。

  • And they were just getting started.

    而他們才剛剛開始。

  • Over the next few days, Ukrainian forces swept through this Russian-held territory

    在接下來的幾天裡,烏克蘭軍隊橫掃了這塊由俄羅斯控制的領土

  • with astounding speed.

    以驚人的速度。

  • "Ukrainian forces have blitzed through Russia's gains..."

    "烏克蘭部隊閃過了俄羅斯的成果..."

  • "...in a lightning counter-offensive..."

    "......在閃電式的反攻中......"

  • "...forcing Russian forces to retreat..."

    "......迫使俄羅斯軍隊撤退......"

  • As of September 14, Ukraine claims it recaptured

    截至9月14日,烏克蘭聲稱它奪回了

  • nearly 8,000 square kilometers of Russian-held territory

    近8,000平方公里的俄羅斯控制的領土

  • and liberated dozens of towns.

    並解放了幾十個城鎮。

  • It's a major breakthrough for Ukraine and it marks a new phase in the war.

    這是烏克蘭的一個重大突破,它標誌著戰爭的一個新階段。

  • So, how did Ukraine pull off such a stunning attack?

    那麼,烏克蘭是如何完成這樣一次驚人的攻擊的?

  • And how does it change the war?

    那麼它是如何改變戰爭的呢?

  • It's useful to think of the war in Ukraine as having three main phases, so far.

    到目前為止,把烏克蘭的戰爭看作是有三個主要階段,是很有用的。

  • The first began when Russia invaded in February 2022.

    第一次是在2022年2月俄羅斯入侵時開始的。

  • The Russian military swept into Ukraine through the north, east, and south

    俄羅斯軍隊通過北部、東部和南部橫掃烏克蘭

  • and immediately clashed with the Ukrainian army.

    並立即與烏克蘭軍隊發生衝突。

  • This phase was essentially the Russians attempting to force

    這個階段基本上是俄國人試圖迫使

  • the Ukrainian government to surrender.

    烏克蘭政府投降。

  • This is Mason Clark, a Russia analyst

    我是俄羅斯分析家梅森-克拉克

  • at the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank.

    在美國智囊團戰爭研究所。

  • Ukrainian forces at the time were in large part outgunned.

    當時的烏克蘭部隊在很大程度上是沒有武器的。

  • The most intense fighting took place in a few major cities

    最激烈的戰鬥發生在幾個主要城市

  • like Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, and outside the capital, Kyiv.

    像哈爾科夫、馬裡烏波爾、赫爾松,以及首都基輔以外的地區。

  • But by April, a few weeks into the war

    但到了4月,戰爭開始幾周後

  • Russia had failed to capture Kyiv or Kharkiv.

    俄羅斯未能佔領基輔或哈爾科夫。

  • It did control a large swath of territory, though

    雖然它確實控制了一大片領土,但

  • and continued to fight the Ukrainian army on three main fronts:

    並繼續在三個主要戰線上與烏克蘭軍隊作戰。

  • In the northeast, in the east, and in the south, where it did control Kherson.

    在東北部,在東部,在南部,它確實控制了赫爾松。

  • That's when the second phase began.

    這就是第二階段開始的時候。

  • From about April to August, this map changed very little.

    大約從4月到8月,這張地圖的變化非常小。

  • Russia, for the most part, stopped conducting large, sweeping attacks

    俄羅斯在大多數情況下,停止了大規模的、全面的攻擊

  • and instead relied on its artillery to pound Ukrainian positions.

    而是依靠其大炮轟擊烏克蘭陣地。

  • But the Russian army was in bad shape.

    但俄軍的情況很糟糕。

  • The US government estimates that as many as 80,000 Russian soldiers

    美國政府估計,有多達8萬名俄羅斯阿兵哥

  • have been killed or wounded.

    已經被殺或受傷。

  • It was very, very devastating for them

    這對他們來說是非常、非常大的打擊

  • particularly since the losses they were taking early in the war

    特別是由於他們在戰爭初期所遭受的損失

  • were in the the best of the Russian military.

    是在俄羅斯軍隊中的佼佼者。

  • The easy comparison is

    容易比較的是

  • by this summer, the Russians had lost more men than the Soviets did

    到今年夏天,俄國人損失的人數比蘇聯人還多

  • in nearly a decade of the war in Afghanistan.

    在近十年的阿富汗戰爭中。

  • So, during the summer, Russia used the time to recruit more soldiers.

    是以,在夏季,俄羅斯利用這段時間招募更多阿兵哥。

  • But it didn't go well.

    但它並不順利。

  • A fascinating element of this is that

    其中一個迷人的因素是

  • the Kremlin still is calling this a special military operation.

    克里姆林宮仍然稱這是一次特殊的軍事行動。

  • It cannot be referred to as a war.

    它不能被稱為戰爭。

  • That actually matters because the Russians haven't called up conscripts for this invasion.

    這實際上很重要,因為俄羅斯人沒有為這次入侵召集應徵阿兵哥。

  • And instead, they're trying to fill these gaps with these various ad hoc methods.

    而相反,他們正試圖用這些不同的臨時方法來填補這些空白。

  • The Russians have had to hire more mercenaries.

    俄羅斯人不得不僱用更多的僱傭兵。

  • And offer payments to prisoners.

    並向囚犯提供報酬。

  • They've even raised the age limit to allow men over 40 to join the army.

    他們甚至提高了年齡限制,允許40歲以上的男子加入軍隊。

  • And Russia's sent many of these men, with little training, to the front lines.

    而俄羅斯把許多沒有受過什麼訓練的人送到前線。

  • So it's led to a steady drop off in the quality of Russian personnel throughout the war.

    所以導致整個戰爭期間,俄羅斯人員的素質不斷下降。

  • But while Russia struggled to rebuild its army, Ukraine had the opposite problem.

    但是,當俄羅斯努力重建其軍隊時,烏克蘭卻遇到了相反的問題。

  • There was actually a sort of bottleneck in May

    實際上,在5月份出現了某種瓶頸。

  • where they had too many recruits and not enough instructors to train them

    他們有太多的新兵,卻沒有足夠的教官來訓練他們。

  • which is a very good problem to have.

    這是個非常好的問題。

  • With help from its western allies

    在其西方盟友的幫助下

  • Ukraine was able to quickly train lots of these men

    烏克蘭能夠迅速培訓出許多這樣的人

  • before sending them to the front.

    在把他們送到前線之前。

  • That has really helped the Ukrainian military not just produce more soldiers

    這確實幫助烏克蘭軍隊不僅生產了更多的阿兵哥

  • but very effective soldiers, better than the Russians.

    但非常有效的阿兵哥,比俄國人更好。

  • By the end of August they were ready for the next phase of the war.

    到8月底,他們已經為戰爭的下一階段做好了準備。

  • Their own attack.

    他們自己的攻擊。

  • Throughout the summer, Ukrainian leaders talked a lot

    在整個夏天,烏克蘭領導人談了很多

  • about their plans to launch an attack.

    關於他們發動攻擊的計劃。

  • And they made it pretty clear that they would strike here, Kherson, key to control the south.

    他們非常明確地表示,他們將打擊這裡,赫爾松,控制南部的關鍵。

  • Ukraine moved many of its troops into position near the city.

    烏克蘭將其許多部隊轉移到該市附近的位置。

  • And used their most-advanced artillery to hit the Russians for weeks.

    並用他們最先進的火炮對俄國人進行了長達數週的打擊。

  • They were forcing the under-manned Russian army to make a choice:

    他們正在迫使兵力不足的俄羅斯軍隊做出選擇。

  • they had to pick somewhere to send forces and they picked Kherson.

    他們必須選擇一個地方來派兵,他們選擇了赫爾松。

  • When the Russians moved troops to Kherson, they left the northeast vulnerable

    當俄國人把部隊調到赫爾松時,他們把東北部留給了脆弱的地方。

  • since it was mostly guarded by those experienced soldiers.

    因為它主要由那些有經驗的阿兵哥看守。

  • So when Ukraine did start their attack in early September

    是以,當烏克蘭在9月初確實開始進攻時

  • they didn't hit much resistance there.

    他們在那裡沒有遇到什麼阻力。

  • Almost as soon as Ukraine's soldiers began the attack, the Russian forces began to flee.

    幾乎在烏克蘭阿兵哥開始進攻的同時,俄羅斯軍隊就開始逃跑了。

  • These are piles of weapons and ammunition, left behind by Russian troops near Kharkiv.

    這些是俄羅斯軍隊在哈爾科夫附近留下的成堆的武器和彈藥。

  • They also left trucks, tanks, and artillery behind.

    他們還留下了卡車、坦克和大炮。

  • And this is a Russian tank crew frantically fleeing

    而這是一名俄羅斯坦克兵在瘋狂地逃亡

  • before crashing into a tree.

    在撞上一棵樹之前。

  • The Russians were running away and withdrawing

    俄國人正在逃亡和撤退

  • faster than the Ukrainians were keeping up with them.

    比烏克蘭人跟上他們的速度還快。

  • While the Russians retreated

    當俄國人撤退的時候

  • Ukraine took over all this territory

    烏克蘭接管了所有這些領土

  • which included some important towns.

    其中包括一些重要的城鎮。

  • Izyum was a Russian supply dump.

    伊久姆是俄羅斯的一個補給站。

  • And Kupiansk was a crucial railway hub, useful for moving troops and supplies.

    而庫比昂斯克是一個關鍵的鐵路樞紐,對運送部隊和物資很有用。

  • They've also freed thousands of Ukrainian civilians

    他們還釋放了成千上萬的烏克蘭平民

  • that have been trapped under Russian occupation for months.

    在俄羅斯佔領下已經被困了幾個月。

  • I think this was a very well done, opportunistic attack

    我認為這是一個非常好的機會主義攻擊。

  • that went just incredibly well for the Ukrainian military.

    這對烏克蘭軍方來說是令人難以置信的順利。

  • Meanwhile, Ukraine is still attacking Kherson and making some progress.

    與此同時,烏克蘭仍在進攻赫爾松,並取得了一些進展。

  • But the attack in Kharkiv has begun a third phase in the war

    但哈爾科夫的襲擊已經開始了戰爭的第三個階段

  • where Ukraine, this time, has the momentum.

    在這裡,烏克蘭,這一次,有了動力。

  • There's a long road ahead.

    前面的路還很長。

  • The Russians are going to try and replace these further catastrophic losses

    俄國人將試圖取代這些進一步的災難性損失

  • with likely diminishing returns.

    效益可能會越來越差。

  • But I am confident in saying that the shoe is more on the other foot now

    但我有信心說,現在鞋子更多的是在另一隻腳上。

  • with Ukrainian forces having the initiative of choosing where

    烏克蘭部隊可以主動選擇在哪裡

  • the next major battle of the war will occur.

    戰爭的下一場重大戰役將發生。

  • And they have clearly demonstrated

    而且他們已經清楚地表明

  • that they can and fully intend to take this war into 2023

    他們能夠並且完全打算將這場戰爭帶入2023年

  • and drive out the occupying Russian forces.

    並趕走佔領國的俄國軍隊。

On September 6, the Ukrainian army launched an attack on the town of Balakliya.

9月6日,烏克蘭軍隊對Balakliya鎮發起了攻擊。

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