Name: 《經濟學家》全球糧食危機 (The global food crisis, explained)
Uploaded: 2022-07-25T01:30:29.000Z
Duration: 11 min 34 s

分詞構句

An unprecedented food crisis is engulfing the world, supercharged by the war in Ukraine.

一場空前的糧食危機正在席捲著世界，而烏克蘭戰爭加劇了此一危機。

It's brought rising food prices, malnutrition, and the potential for much, much worse.

它帶來了食物價格的飆漲、營養不良的問題，以及可能出現的更多、更嚴重的情況。

It threatens to keep tens of millions of people over the edge into mass hunger and famine.

它有可能使數百萬的人們處於飢餓和糧荒的邊緣。

Until recently, global hunger was in decline.

直到最近，全球飢餓的問題才逐漸趨緩。

但從2014年起，這個問題便日漸嚴峻。

Over the past two years, the number of people without regular access to food has more than doubled.

在過去的兩年，無法正常獲得食物來源的人口已經增加了一倍之多。

Some 800 million people already go to bed hungry every night.

有800萬的人口每晚都要忍著飢餓入睡。

And now, the world's food system has been hit with a perfect storm.

在今日，全球食物系統已被一場勢不可擋的風暴攪得翻天覆地。

2022 was already looking like a terrible year for global hunger as COVID still continue to grip some parts of the food supply chain worldwide.

2022 年對於全球飢餓來說已經是滿目瘡痍的一年，因為新冠疫情仍繼續對全球食品供應鏈的某些部分造成影響。

You've had a series of bad harvests in recent years because of climate change⏤this all disrupted food production.

因為氣候變遷，近年來糧食皆欠收──這一切都擾亂了糧食生產。

Those two shocks⏤climate change and the pandemic⏤have meant that, according to one estimate, global supply of wheat, one of the world's most important carbohydrates, has fallen for the first time in 4 years.

兩個衝擊──氣候變遷和新冠疫情，據統計讓小麥，也就是全球最重要的碳水化合物的供應量在四年來第一次下降。

烏克蘭的食物出口全部停止了。

trapping around 25 million tons of corn and wheat inside the country, equivalent to the annual consumption of all of the world's least developed economies.

讓約2500萬噸的玉米滯留在這個國家，而那相當於全球所有最不發達經濟體的年消費量。

Ukraine's food exports are hugely important to the global food supply.

烏克蘭的食物出口量在全球食物供給上扮演著重要的角色。

It's a big powerhouse in terms of grain production; it's one of the world breadbaskets.

對於穀物收成而言，它就像是一台巨大的發電廠，是全球的糧倉。

And with that breadbasket off the market, prices rocketed.

而當那樣的糧倉從市場上消失了，物價便因此飆漲。

Imagine if you were buying your food from Ukraine, and now, let's say, you need to go to Canada or Australia or Argentina.

想像一下你原本買的都是從烏克蘭來的食物，而現在你變成要去加拿大、澳洲或阿根廷才能買到。

That means that you will have to pay more because of [the] extra freight,

這等於因為額外的運費，你要花更多的錢。

and you will have to pay more in time because it will take you longer,

因為它也需要更長的時間，所以你要等更久。

and you will pass these costs to the consumer.

而你會把這些支出轉嫁給消費者。

And other shocks have made the crisis worse.

而其他的衝擊也使這場危機變得更劇烈。

We are in uncharted territory because, not only do we have a food crisis with multiple causes, but also this is coming on top of an energy crisis and also a fertilizer crisis.

我們正處於未知的恐懼之中，因為我們不只面臨著由多重的原因造成的食物危機，也面臨著能源危機和肥料危機。

Farms run on fuel and fertilizer; as prices of both have risen, farmers' profit margins have been squeezed.

農場需要燃料和肥料來運營，而隨著兩者的價格上漲，農民的收益也跟著緊縮。

And if they're forced to cut back on fertilizer because it's too expensive or unavailable, their yields will fall even more, at the worst possible time.

而若他們被迫因為價格高昂或無法取得肥料而縮減肥料的用量，他們的收成將會在最糟糕的時機點下降得更多。

That will impact the production of major commodities for the next year.

他們將會影響明年主要貨品的生產。

And then we're looking at availability crisis⏤imagine what that would do to food prices.

然後我們現在看到了供應危機──想像一下這會對食品價格產生什麼影響。

It's a vicious cycle with potentially catastrophic consequences, and nowhere on earth is immune.

這就像一個惡性循環，造成潛在的災難性後果，而世界無一角落能倖免於此。

In America, rising food and energy costs have helped push inflation to its highest level since 1981.

在美國，食物和能源價格的上漲讓它的通貨膨漲率自1981年來達到最高。

Food prices in Britain are rising at a rate not seen for 13 years.

在英國，食物價格以13年來都未曾見過的速度上漲著。

And in poorer countries, things are even worse.

而在其他貧窮國家，事態更加糟糕。

([Arabic] People are getting hungry; there is no semolina, no oil, no sugar. If you're lucky, you'd buy one bottle of oil.)

（人們正面臨著飢餓，沒有粗糧，沒有油也沒有糖。如果你夠幸運，你能買到一瓶油。）

For Suad, the food crisis has already hit home.

對於Suad來說，食物危機已經影響到了她的家庭。

She's been selling "khobz tabouna", a traditional Tunisian bread made with semolina for the last 35 years.

在過去的35年來，她一直販賣著khobz tabouna，一種以粗糧製成的傳統突尼西亞麵包。

([Arabic] I have 3 children; I am killing myself to feed and educate them.)

（我有三個小孩，我就算自己活不下去也要讓他們吃飽，讓他們受教育。）

Now, the cost of her ingredients are going up and customers are buying less, leaving her with less money to feed her family.

現在，她在原物料上要花的支出越來越高，導致客人們也越買越少，讓她只能用微薄的錢養家糊口。

([Arabic] Life is getting hard; really hard. Oil is more expensive, semolina is more expensive.)

（日子越來越難過，真的很難。油更貴了，粗糧也是。）

([Arabic] Those who used to buy 5 or 6 are now buying only 2 or 3 breads. There are no sales, and men can't provide for their families.)

（以前那些會買五、六個麵包的客人現在只會買三、四個。沒有銷售，而男人們也沒辦法養的起家人。）

Tunisia usually imports about 42% of its wheat from Ukraine and relies on it for sunflower oil, another crucial commodity.

突尼西亞共和國一般會從烏克蘭進口百分之42的小麥，同時也仰賴烏克蘭的葵花油和其他重要的產品。

With those imports gone, Tunisia has struggled to find other suppliers it can afford, meaning shortages.

當這些進口都沒了，突尼西亞共和國需要輾轉尋找其他他們負擔得起的供應商，而這代表著原物料短缺。

([Arabic] Life used to be easier before; everything used to be available.)

（以前的日子比較好過，每個東西都還買得到也買得起。）

([Arabic] One doesn't even have a spoon of oil at home; we are really hungry.)

（有人甚至家裡連一匙油也沒有，我們真的餓壞了。）

在突尼西亞，飢餓轉變成了憤怒。

As food disappears from shelves, there's a risk Tunisians could lose patience with their government.

隨著食物從貨架上消失，突尼西亞人便可能會對政府失去耐心。

I'm really, really concerned about how this crisis can stoke civil unrest.

我真的很擔憂這樣的危機會如何引發內亂。

In 2008, we saw riots in upwards of 40 countries.

在2008年，我們看到超過40個國家發生暴亂。

In 2011, we saw riots, but also the start of the Arab Spring.

2011年，人們也見證到暴亂，但也看到了阿拉伯之春的開始。

([Arabic] Bread, freedom, and social equality.)

Today, we are looking at something which we haven't seen before.

今天，我們見識到了以前從未有過的東西。

While the Tunisian Revolution in 2011 wasn't caused by higher food prices, some believe it was a contributing factor.

雖然2011年的茉莉花革命主要不是因為上漲的食物價格造成的，但人們將其視為一個促成因素。

And it's not just in Tunisia where hunger looks set to cause problems for governments.

而不只突尼西亞政府因飢餓所困。

([Arabic] It's terrible that families can't put a dignified plate of food on their table.)

（家庭連「吃」的尊嚴都沒有，那真是太可怕了。）

"The Economist's" modeling suggests that many countries could see a doubling of the number of serious outbreaks of unrest over the next year,

《經濟學家》的模型顯示，明年有多一倍的國家會有嚴重的騷亂爆發。

and it wouldn't just be anger driving this unrest, but a genuine fear of going hungry.

而不只是憤怒驅使著這樣的事件發生，而是內心深深對於飢餓感到的懼怕。

Households in sub-Saharan Africa already spend up to 40% of their income feeding themselves.

為了餵飽自己，在亞撒哈拉地區的家庭已經花費了高達他們總收入的40％來購買食物。

A rise in prices means millions won't be able to afford to eat.

價格的上漲意味著數以百萬的人口將吃不起飯。

In many, many cases, their best day is like our worst day.

在很多、很多的案例中，他們吃得最好的一天是我們吃得最差的一天。

Imagine if you are spending 50% of your income just on food, how much space do you have for anything else?

想像一下，你要將你收入的一半都花到食物上，你又能剩多少錢來應付其他的開銷？

And then, the prices of two things which really really matter, meaning your food and your fuel, they go up.

接著，食物與燃料，這兩樣十分重要的東西的價格上漲。

Those that do have supplies have been turning inwards.

There are a number of fixes that countries are turning to; one of the unfortunate ones is protectionism.

一些國家轉而尋求解決辦法，其中一項不幸的做法便是貿易保護主義。

That is to say, export controls and stockpiling.

也就是指控制進口量以及儲備物資。

Following severe heatwaves earlier this year, India banned wheat exports.

繼今年早些時候幾波熱浪的猛攻後，印度禁止了小麥的出口。

In total, 23 countries now have severe restrictions on food exports.

據統計，目前有23個國家實施了食物出口禁令。

The thing is, they might be doing themselves more harm than good.

而事實上，他們這麼做弊大於利。

Time and again, it has been proven that it doesn't help inside the country which puts the export ban; it doesn't help outside the country.

時間再一次地證明，實施出口禁令的原進口國不僅幫不上自己，也幫不上原出口國。

Export bans can make a price problem worse.

Farmers may hoard their products until the ban is lifted or they might even switch to another crop.

農民可能會囤積商品直至禁令解除，或是轉而種植另一項作物。

That would reduce domestic supply further and push prices up.

這將會進一步減少國內供給，並促使價格上漲。

Whilst you can sympathize with these countries that are doing this, the result is potentially much higher prices for everyone else.

當你還在為這些國家這麼做感到同情時，這樣的後果是將導致無一人能逃得了可能上漲的價格。

That means the challenge faced by some of the world's poorest countries could grow even further.

那代表著過去世界最貧窮國家面臨到的挑戰將會越演越劇烈。

We need to help governments reach their populations with affordable food, with affordable fuel, with fertilizer.

我們需要協助政府來為他們的人口提供買得起的食物、燃料和肥料。

And what that will require is facilities⏤financing facilities which are accessible to these governments to do that.

而那將需要一些機制──這些政府能夠取得的融資機制。

Providing some loans at lower rates through the IMF, for example, so that they can afford to import and then, you know, pay back at their own pace.

舉例來說，通過國際貨幣基金組織提供較低利率的貸款，那麼這些國家便能夠負擔得起進口貨物，然後也就是你知道的，按照他們自己的節奏為此償還。

Of course, the best way to help make food imports affordable again is to get Ukraine's exports back to the global market.

當然，能幫助再次負擔的起進口食物的最好方法便是讓烏克蘭的產品出口再次回到全球市場中。

International negotiations have been trying to do just that.

But even with a deal in place, longer-term weaknesses in the world's food system would remain.

但即使達成協議，全球食物系統的長期疲軟還是會持續。

Which is why experts continue to warn about the prospects for a world that remains too dependent on too few countries for its food.

這也就是專家為何不斷向世界警告當過度依賴於少數幾個國家所生產的食物時的未來。

Less than 10 countries account for around 90% of our exports for key commodities like wheat, like corn, like rice, like soybean.

不到10個的國家卻佔了關鍵商品，像是小麥、玉米、米、大豆百分之90的出口。

So, when there's a shock in any one of these countries, whether it be climate, whether it be conflict,

所以，當有衝擊在那任一一個國家中發生，無論是氣候還是衝突，

you see the consequences of that across the world.

Some countries are trying to insulate themselves from these shocks by becoming more self-sufficient.

一些國家正試圖通過變得更加自給自足來使自己避開這些衝擊的影響。

And this year, the World Bank announced that it's making $30 billion available to help countries become more food secure.

今年，世界銀行宣布將提供 300 億美元用於幫助各國提高糧食安全。

But it's only part of the answer to avoiding another crisis.

但這只是避免另一場危機的部分答案。

The reality is that it's just too economically infeasible to be self-sufficient.

事實是要變得自給自足在經濟上太不可行了。

Most countries will always need to import some food.

大部分的國家總會需要食物進口。

And as the climate crisis worsens, global food shocks are set to become ever more frequent and harder to predict.

而隨著氣候危機惡化，全球食物衝擊也變得越發頻繁且難以預測。

So, it makes sense not to put all of your eggs in one basket.

所以，不要把雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡是有道理的。

If you are a country which relies on imports, make sure that your import base is not so small, that it is diversified.

如果你的國家仰賴進口，那就確保你們國家的進口的基礎不要過少，而要多元化。

So, if one country stops, somebody else can jump in.

這樣一來，當一國家停止供應，其他國家就能上場。

Where is our insurance for something as basic as national food security?

我們對國家糧食安全等基本問題的保險在哪裡？

The world is already starting to understand the true cost of volatile prices.

這個世界已經在開始了解價格波動帶來的代價。

Absolute levels of global hunger in 2022 could be the highest ever.

2022年的世界飢餓問題能創下一定水平的新高。

But without making some fundamental changes to how the world's food is supplied, the next crisis could be even more deadly.

若是沒有從根本地改變全球食物供應，下一波危機可能更加致命。