Even if just a tiny fraction of these technologically mature civilizations resources were used for this purpose.

即使這些技術成熟的文明資源中只有極小部分被用於這一目的。

The vast majority of minds like ours would be living in simulated worlds rather than in the original histories.

絕大多數像我們這樣的頭腦會生活在模擬的世界裡，而不是在原始的歷史中。

20 years ago, Professor Bostrom published the first draft of his groundbreaking simulation argument, which asks, are you living in a computer simulation right now?

20年前，博斯特羅姆教授發表了他開創性的模擬論證的初稿，他問道：你現在是否生活在一個計算機模擬中？

We're inside a computer program.

我們在一個計算機程序中。

Is it really so hard to believe?

這真的有那麼難相信嗎？

Not for some prominent scientists and techstars apparently.

對於一些著名的科學家和科技人員來說，顯然不是這樣。

So we re watched the Matrix with Professor Bostrom as he explained his simulation hypothesis, Bostrom simulation argument doesn't resolve the issue, but it makes the case that as computing power and progress in artificial intelligence grows one of the following statements must be true.

是以，我們重新觀看了博斯特羅姆教授的《黑客帝國》，他解釋了他的模擬假說，博斯特羅姆的模擬論證並沒有解決這個問題，但它提出的理由是，隨著計算能力和人工智能的進步，以下陳述之一一定是真的。

One, we will go extinct before we enter a post human phase.

第一，在我們進入後人類階段之前，我們就會滅絕。

In other words, we die out before becoming technically capable of creating computer simulations with conscious minds in it or two, we don't go extinct, but will be so evolved that we won't be interested in running these types of simulations Or 3?

換句話說，我們在變得有技術能力創造有意識的計算機模擬之前就已經滅絕了，或者二，我們不會滅絕，但會進化到對運行這些類型的模擬不感興趣 或者三？

Is the simulation hypothesis that we are living in a computer simulation.

模擬假說是指我們生活在一個計算機模擬中。

What is real?

什麼是真實的？

How do you define real?

你如何定義真實？

I thought especially the first Matrix movie was pretty cool.

我認為特別是第一部《黑客帝國》電影非常酷。

If the simulation argument is sound, it would seem to be quite a revelation about where we fit in into the larger structure of reality throughout history, from the buddhist concept of dharma to the Aztecs belief that our world was a painting by the gods to Plato's allegory of the cave.

如果模擬論證是合理的，這似乎是一個相當大的啟示，我們在歷史上適合於更大的現實結構，從佛教的佛法概念到阿茲特克人相信我們的世界是神的繪畫，再到柏拉圖的洞穴寓言。

We've always toyed with this idea of reality as an illusion, as a shadow of what is truly real.

我們一直在玩弄這種現實是一種幻覺的想法，作為真正真實的東西的影子。

I mean, people have been thinking since ancient times About the question of how can we be sure that we're not dreaming or that there is not like a demon deluding us into believing that there is an external world.

我的意思是，人們自古以來就在思考這樣一個問題：我們如何才能確定我們不是在做夢，或者說沒有像惡魔一樣欺騙我們，讓我們相信有一個外部世界。

But it wasn't until the Wachowskis Matrix film dropped in 1999 that the possibility of reality run by computers was burned into the popular imagination.

但是，直到1999年瓦卓斯基的《黑客帝國》電影問世，由計算機運行的現實的可能性才被烙在大眾的想象中。

If the simulation hypothesis is true, I don't think the best way to characterize things would be by saying that the world that we perceive is not real would rather put it, it's real, but it's reality consists of being simulated in a computer.

如果模擬假說是真的，我不認為描述事情的最佳方式是說我們所感知的世界不是真實的，而是說，它是真實的，但它的真實性包括在計算機中被模擬。

In this scene from the Matrix viewers are shown a horrific basement or base reality.

在《黑客帝國》的這個場景中，觀眾看到了一個可怕的地下室或基地的現實。

The artificial intelligence we created, turned us into a power source to run their computers.

我們創造的人工智能，把我們變成了運行他們計算機的動力源。

The Matrix is a computer generated dream world built to keep us under control in order to change a human being.

黑客帝國是一個計算機生成的夢幻世界，它的建立是為了讓我們受到控制，以改變一個人。

Yeah, this is this a likely outcome when we consume more energy than we generate, there are many more efficient engines already available for converting energy wouldn't want to keep a whole human organism just to generate waste heat.

是的，這是一個可能的結果，當我們消耗的能量超過我們產生的能量時，有許多更有效的引擎已經可以用來轉換能量，不會想保留整個人類機體只是為了產生廢熱。

Okay, so if the original matrix premise of humans as batteries seems inefficient and unlikely, then how did the simulation work?

好吧，如果人類作為電池的原始矩陣前提似乎是低效和不可能的，那麼模擬是如何工作的？

So the way to picture that is that it's not that there would be these kind of organic brains floating in tanks with some big fiber bundle plugged in that feeds them with some kind of input from some simulated virtual world.

是以，想象的方式是，並不是說會有這些有機大腦漂浮在水箱中，有一些大的光纖束插入，從一些模擬的虛擬世界中為它們提供某種輸入。

But the brains themselves would be part of the simulation.

但大腦本身將是模擬的一部分。

You would be conscious and in your brain would in the simulation would be simulated at a sufficiently detailed level.

你會有意識，在你的大腦中會在模擬中以足夠詳細的水準進行模擬。

That it would basically have the same information processing structure as we previously thought, were implemented on biological neurons.

它基本上會有與我們以前認為的相同的信息處理結構，是在生物神經元上實現的。

Now, all of those biological neurons are simulated.

現在，所有這些生物神經元都被模擬了。

Instead that information processing could equally be implemented in silicon hardware.

相反，這種信息處理同樣可以在硅硬件中實現。

This is kind of a premise of the simulation argument, I call it substrate independence.

這算是模擬論證的一個前提，我稱之為底層獨立。

The idea that consciousness can be implemented not just on biological, carbon based substrate but on other computational substrate as well.

意識不僅可以在生物、碳基基質上實現，也可以在其他計算基質上實現。

In this scene, viewers are introduced to a super intelligent ai program that created the Matrix, Who are you?

在這個場景中，觀眾被介紹給一個創造了黑客帝國的超級智能AI程序，你是誰？

I am the architect.

我是建築師。

I created the Matrix.

我創造了母體。

If we do live in a simulation who or what created our simulation.

如果我們確實生活在一個模擬中，誰或什麼創造了我們的模擬。

If we are in a simulation, then that simulation was created by some form of super intelligence rather than by some human intelligence.

如果我們是在一個模擬中，那麼這個模擬是由某種形式的超級智能創造的，而不是由某種人類智能創造的。

The technology to be able to create simulations that are realistic and that have conscious creatures like humans in them, it's a very advanced kind of technology, Right.

能夠創造出逼真的、有意識的生物如人類的模擬技術，這是一種非常先進的技術，對。

And the civilization that had developed such advanced technology would, I think also have the technology to enhance their own intelligence and to build very sophisticated forms of artificial intelligence.

而發展瞭如此先進技術的文明，我想也會有技術來提高他們自己的智能，並建立非常複雜的人工智能形式。

So by the time some civilization becomes capable of creating these simulations, they would have the ability to develop greater forms of intelligence and I think they would do so.

是以，當一些文明變得有能力創造這些模擬時，他們將有能力發展出更大形式的智能，我認為他們會這樣做。

And in fact, that's the likeliest way that they would gain the ability to create these simulations.

而事實上，這是他們獲得創造這些模擬的能力的最可能的方式。

So then the simulators would be super intelligent.

所以那時的模擬器將是超級智能的。

But why would a future civilization create these worlds?

但為什麼一個未來的文明會創造這些世界？

We became capable of creating simulations.

我們變得有能力創造模擬。

We might create many different kinds of simulations.

我們可能會創造許多不同種類的模擬。

We might create some simulations that were simulations of our own past, that we try to get as realistic as possible based on our historical records, like historical tourism.

我們可能會創造一些模擬，這些模擬是對我們自己的過去的模擬，我們試圖根據我們的歷史記錄儘可能的真實，比如歷史旅遊。

If you want to experience in bygone era and you can actually go back in time, because time machines are not possible and the second best might be to create the kind of simulation of this historical epoch and you could then enter into that and experience it.

如果你想體驗過去的時代，你可以真正回到過去，因為時間機器是不可能的，第二好的辦法可能是創造這種歷史時代的模擬，然後你可以進入其中並體驗它。

There could be many other reasons as well.

也可能有許多其他原因。

We might simulate potential alien civilizations that we haven't encountered.

我們可能會模擬我們沒有遇到的潛在外星文明。

Maybe that would be very important for gaining information about how alien civilizations would behave in case we did run into them.

也許這對獲得有關外星文明的行為方式的資訊非常重要，以防我們真的遇到它們。

Think of all the reasons why humans have tried to create, say fictional worlds using whatever technologies we have, even if it's just words on a page that then leverage the human imagination to conjure it up and like this scene from the Matrix, we have arrived at the moment of truth.

想一想人類為什麼試圖利用我們所擁有的任何技術來創造，比方說虛構的世界，哪怕只是書頁上的文字，然後藉助人類的想象力把它變出來，就像《黑客帝國》中的這一幕，我們已經到了真理的時刻。

You take the blue pill.

你吃了藍藥。

The story ends, You take the red pill.

故事結束，你吃了紅藥。

All I'm offering is the truth.

我所提供的都是事實。

If we're all just software programs running around in a simulated world, why is it important to know the truth as morpheus offers the world we perceive would still, in the relevant sense, be real.

如果我們都只是在一個模擬的世界中運行的軟件程序，為什麼要知道真相，因為莫菲斯提供的我們所感知的世界在相關意義上仍將是真實的。

That it would, for example, matter a lot what happens in the simulation.

比如說，在模擬中發生的事情會很重要。

It would be a matter of great concern to us what experiences we will have in this simulated reality.

在這個模擬的現實中，我們會有什麼樣的經歷，這將是我們非常關心的問題。

So, if morpheus offered the choice red pill or blue pill, Which one would professor Bostrom choose?

那麼，如果莫菲斯提供紅色藥丸或藍色藥丸的選擇，博斯特羅姆教授會選擇哪一個？

Professor?

教授？

Red pill or blue pill as a philosopher, I guess you've already chewed a little bit on the red pill, right?

作為一個哲學家的紅藥丸或藍藥丸，我猜你已經嚼過一點紅藥丸了，對嗎？

Rather than the binary choice of maximal complete truth versus staying in our current state of ignorance, I am cautious by nature.

與其說是最大限度的完全真理與停留在我們目前的無知狀態的二元選擇，不如說是我天性的謹慎。

So, if there were this third option might be drawn towards that.

是以，如果有這第三個選擇可能會被吸引到這一點上。

Okay, so a purple pill, perhaps even if we're not living in a simulation, knowing what we know about the dangers of ai should we just give up on developing machine, Super intelligence before it turns against us, like in the Matrix or terminator or 2001, a space Odyssey or Westworld or Ex machina.

好吧，那麼一個紫色的藥丸，也許即使我們不是生活在一個模擬中，知道我們對AI的危險性的瞭解，我們是否應該在機器、超級智能與我們作對之前放棄發展，就像在《黑客帝國》或《終結者》或《2001，太空奧德賽》或《西部世界》或《機器俠》中那樣。

I think it would be tragic if we forever failed to do that.

我認為，如果我們永遠做不到這一點，那將是悲劇性的。

I do think that transition, however, will be associated with big risks, including existential risks.

然而，我確實認為這種過渡將伴隨著巨大的風險，包括生存風險。

What we'll need to do is design AI systems that are fundamentally on our side that that share our values or that are aligned with human intentions.

我們需要做的是設計出從根本上站在我們這邊的人工智能系統，即分享我們的價值觀或與人類的意圖保持一致。