[male narrator] The 5th of July, 1914.

1914年7月5日

The Archduke and Duchess are dead.

大公夫婦已死

Gavrilo Princip is in jail

加夫里洛·普林西普(Gavrilo Princip)被押入大牢

but catastrophe is not yet certain.

但事情還沒到無法挽回的地步。

Act Two begins.

第二幕開始。

We open on an Austrian delegation arriving in Potsdam.

奧地利代表正要抵達波茨坦(Potsdam)。

It is now a week after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand.

時間是法蘭茲·斐迪南(Franz Ferdinand) 遇刺的一星期後。

The Austrians want to take action.

奧地利人打算採取行動。

They want war with the Serbs,

他們想要和塞爾維亞人一戰

who they think are behind the group of ragged young men

他們認為塞爾維亞人背後支持那群衣衫襤褸的年輕人

that actually pulled the trigger.

執行刺殺行動。

But before they can have their war,

但在他們能得到他們想要的戰爭前，

they decide they must consult with their much stronger ally:

他們決定要先和 比他們強好幾倍的盟友，

The German Empire.

德意志帝國(German Empire)諮商。

So they send a delegation to Potsdam

所以他們派了一位代表去波茨坦

to meet with the Kaiser, Wilhelm II.

和凱撒(Kaiser)威廉二世(Wilhelm II)會面。

They've been restrained before by Germany,

他們之前被德國制約過，

held back from acting in the Balkans,

德國曾阻止他們在巴爾幹半島大張旗鼓，

so they need to know what Germany plans to do.

所以他們必須知道德國的如意算盤。

They go to the Kaiser and tell him that this is intolerable,

他們去找凱撒，並告訴他，這是不可容忍的，

that they cannot abide such a humiliation,

他們不能吞下這口氣，

that they cannot let this act of terrorism go unpunished.

他們不能讓此次恐怖攻擊的策劃者逍遙法外。

And the Kaiser says to them, “We'll back you, whatever you do.

然後凱撒對他們說，「不論你們要做什麼，我們會支持你們的。

"Just act and act quickly.

但切要迅速行動，

Germany is behind you, without reservation.”

德國會毫無保留地支持你。」

The Kaiser thinks that general war can be avoided,

凱撒認為全面戰爭是可以避免的，

that if the Austrians strike while all of Europe is enraged over this assassination,

只要奧地利人趁著全歐洲對這次刺殺義憤填膺之時 反擊，

if they act while the brutal slaughter of the Archduke and Duchess

只要他們趁著大公夫婦慘死一事仍然在

is still fresh in people's minds,

眾人心中記憶猶新時行動，

no one will raise a finger to defend Serbia.

沒有人會願意插一根手指來保護塞爾維亞。

And even if--

而且，即使─

even if the Russian Empire decided that they wanted to protect their Serbian allies,

即使俄羅斯帝國(Russian Empire)決定他們要保護塞爾維亞的小兄弟，

if the Austrians can strike quickly it'll be a fait accompli

只要奧地利迅速攻擊，勝利就會成為「既定事實」─

The war will be over before the Russians can mobilize their forces.

俄羅斯人還沒動員，戰爭就會結束了。

This is what he thinks as he tells the Austrian delegation

當他告訴奧地利代表時，這是他所打的如意算盤

that they have a blank check,

他們只有一張空頭支票─

that Germany will back them whatever they do.

「不管他們做什麼，德國會支持他們。」

And then he goes on vacation--

然後他跑去放長假─

on a boat for three weeks, where he can't be reached.

長達三周的渡船之旅，此時沒有人能聯絡上他。

So the Austrians come home, German assurances in hand,

所以奧地利人帶著德國人的保證回家了，

but in Austria there's disagreement.

但是在奧地利出現了歧議。

The Hungarian part of their empire initially objects to war.

奧匈帝國中的匈牙利(Hungary)一開始反對戰爭

They hoped that a peaceful solution might be found.

他們希望能有一個和平的解決方案

But their voice is alone.

但他們孤掌難鳴。

Where were the other voices of reason or the other arguments for peace?

其他理性的聲音和 替和平發聲的論辯去哪了呢？

Dead on the streets of Sarajevo.

大都已經葬在塞拉耶佛(Sarajevo)的街道上。

The Archduke was perhaps the greatest defender of the Serbs in the Empire,

大公可能是當時帝國中挺塞爾維亞人一派最顯赫的人。

and so when moderation was called for,

所以當有人呼籲大家節制一點時，

the parties for war simply had to point to his death and say,

主戰派只需指向他的遺照，說：

“He was their greatest friend and look what they did to him!

「他曾是他們最要好的朋友，可是你看他們對他怎麼了？

What do you think they're gonna do to us?”

你覺得他們會對我們做什麼？」

And all arguments were quelled.

於是所有的反戰論調都被壓制了。

So, at last, the Hungarians relented on one condition,

於是，最後，匈牙利人指要求一項條件作為宣戰的前提─

a condition that will be important later--

這個條件之後會很重要─

that the Austro-Hungarian Empire would not annex a foot of Serbian land.

奧匈帝國不會吞併塞爾維亞的寸草寸土。

And with that, the Austrians began drafting an ultimatum to Serbia.

於是，奧地利人開始草擬對塞爾維亞的最後通牒。

But this ultimatum is delayed by a chance for peace.

但這張最後通牒被一次和平的可能拖延了

Two men, rivals in the heart of Serbia,

兩個男人，在塞爾維亞之心的兩位對手，

in Belgrade, the very capital in the center of this crisis,

在貝爾格勒(Belgrade)，此次危機的正中央中，

are two of the only men farsighted enough

唯有這兩個男人有足夠的遠見，

to see the clouds gathering on the edge of Europe.

看得到從歐洲邊緣逼近的烏雲。

They are the ambassador from Austria and the ambassador from Russia to Serbia.

他們是奧地利和俄羅斯駐塞爾維亞的大使。

They both have come to the same conclusion about where this storm will end,

他們已經得到了相同的結論。

so they plan to put aside their differences

所以他們打算捨盡前嫌，

and meet to perhaps work out a plan for peace.

互相碰面，找出維護和平的方案。

On the 10th of July, the Russian ambassador arrives

7月10日，俄羅斯大使抵達

at the house of the ambassador from Austria-Hungary.

奧匈大使的住家。

The details are agreed to.

在細節上兩人已達成共識。

The plan is set.

計畫就緒。

All that's left is one final meeting to perhaps smooth out tensions,

只差最後一次會面，以求舒緩緊繃的形勢，

to avert world war.

避免世界大戰爆發。

They talk, they take cigarettes.

他們相談，共享香菸。

Both sides are open, things are going well,

雙方大方討論，事情順遂地進展。

and then WHAM--

然後 ─ 砰！

The Russian ambassador falls dead of a heart attack.

俄羅斯大使心臟病突發，猝死。

Nothing signed.

什麼都沒簽到。

No war stopped.

沒能阻止戰爭。

The Serbians blame the Austrians.

塞爾維亞人責怪奧地利人。

Rumors circulate that they had the Russian ambassador assassinated,

謠言說奧地利人刺殺了俄羅斯大使，

that the Austrian ambassador killed him in his own house.

奧地利大使在他家裡把俄羅斯大使殺了。

Worse still, this leaves the Russians without an ambassador in Serbia.

更糟的是，現在俄羅斯人在塞爾維亞沒有使節了。

As events begin to accelerate toward war,

當一切都朝向戰爭加速推進時，

they have no diplomatic channel at the center of everything.

他們在一切的中心沒有外交管道。

No lines of communication.

沒有溝通管道。

No eyes or ears on the ground.

如同矇住眼睛，堵住耳朵。

They have nobody with the experience, connections, or familiarity with Serbia

他們沒有人跟前任大使一樣對塞爾維亞有足夠的經驗、連結或熟悉度

that the former ambassador had to send out.

可以讓他們派出去。

And even if they did, it'd take weeks to get them appointed

即使他們有這樣的人才，仍需要好幾個禮拜才能把他安排上任

and shipped from Moscow to Sarajevo.

並載他從莫斯科到塞拉耶弗。

Weeks they don't have.

他們沒有那麼多時間。

But with this last overture turning to catastrophe,

當最後的序章即將轉入大災難的正曲時，

the Austrians decide it's finally time to send their ultimatum.

奧地利人決定該是時候交上他們的最後通牒。

But they can't.

但他們交不出去。

Again, they delay.

他們一拖再拖。

You see, President Poincaré the leader of France,

其實，法國總統普恩加萊(Raymond Poincaré)，法國的領導人，

is going to Russia to meet with the czar.

正要去俄羅斯和沙皇會面。

And the Austrians, ever nervous, decide that they can't send the ultimatum

奧地利人見狀，緊張了起來，並決定他們不能在他們的

while their two greatest adversaries are meeting together in the same place.

兩個頭號敵人在同一地會面的時候送出最後通牒。

It would never do.

絕對不行。

They could make decisions too quickly.

他們倆在一起可以快速地做決定。

They could coordinate in ways they normally couldn't when they're a thousand miles apart.

他們可以超乎平常地相互協調決策。

So the Austrians delay.

所以奧地利人繼續等。

They wait until Poincaré is a hundred miles out to sea

他們等到普恩加萊出海一百哩，

before sending their ultimatum.

才寄出他們的最後通牒。

But at last, on the 23rd of July,

最後，7月23日，

an ultimatum is sent from the Austrians to the Serbs.

一封最後通牒從奧地利人手上到了塞爾維亞人手上。

The Serbs have 48 hours to agree to all points,

塞爾維亞人有四十八小時同意每一項要求，

or face war.

否則就得一戰。

The ultimatum asks many things,

最後通牒上要求了許多東西，

but most of all it asks that Austrian police be granted free reign

但最重要的是，它要求奧地利警方能逕行

to investigate the assassination on Serbian soil.

至塞爾維亞的土壤上調查刺殺事件。

This is impossible.

這根本不可能。

To agree to such a thing is tantamount to giving up sovereignty.

同意這種要求等同放棄國家主權。

No nation would accept this.

沒有國家會接受這種要求。

But that's all right because the ultimatum is only a ruse anyway,

但沒關係，這封最後通牒只是個幌子而已，

a cover for with the Austrians really want.

作為奧地利人得到真正想要的東西的藉口。

The Austrians want war.

奧地利想要戰爭。

They want the ultimatum to be rejected

他們想要最後通牒被拒絕，

because they want to appear to the world

因為他們想要看起來

as though they gave the Serbs a chance to avoid a conflict.

他們已經給了塞爾維亞人一次機會避免衝突。

They want to appear blame-free for the invasion they're planning.

他們想要不因他們正在策畫的侵略而被歸咎。

And here's where things begin to speed up.

局勢的步調此時開始加速。

Europe begins to boil.

全歐洲開始沸騰。

Up until this point, the crisis in the Balkans is just another event on the world stage,

在這一刻之前，巴爾幹半島上的危機只是世界舞台上的另一個事件而已，

but all of a sudden, with the release of this ultimatum,

但突然，一當最後通牒被公布，

people start to clue into what's happening.

人們開始想知道現在正在發生什麼事。

Powers outside of Austria, Germany, and Serbia begin to pay attention.

奧地利、德國和塞爾維亞外的各方力量開始關注此事。

But for us, we're gonna turn our attention to one man:

但我們要聚焦在一個人身上：

Sergei Sazonov.

謝爾蓋·薩宗諾夫(Sergei Sazonov)。

Sergei Sazonov was the foreign minister of Russia,

謝爾蓋·薩宗諾夫當時是俄羅斯的外交部長，

and for him the 24th of July is about to be a very, very busy day.

對他來說，7月24日將會成為非常忙碌的議天。

In the morning,

早上，

he wakes to receive the terms of the ultimatum that Austria sent to Serbia.

他一醒來，收到了奧地利對塞爾維亞最後通牒的條件。

He reads quietly to himself,

他低聲讀出每一字，

then turns to an aide and fatefully utters,

然後轉向一位助手，說出：

“It's a European war.”

「是一場歐洲大戰。」

A cabinet meeting is hastily assembled.

內閣會議倉促地招開了。

The highest levels of the Russian government are all there.

俄羅斯政府的最高層都到場了。

They resolve to ask the Austrians to give the Serbs more time,

他們決心懇求奧地利人給塞爾維亞人更多時間，

while at the same time pushing the Serbs not to resist the Austrians.

同時要求塞爾維亞人不要抵抗奧地利人。

They also make the fateful decision to begin a partial mobilization

他們也決定開始部分動員，

of their forces along the Austrian border,

在奧地利邊境一帶駐兵，

trying to play all the angles at once in the schizophrenic chaos

嘗試在大戰前縱橫交錯的混沌中

that seemed all too common in the days just before the war.

從各個角度切入。

Now it's noon.

中午。

Sazonov takes lunch with the French and British ambassador.

薩宗諾夫與法國和英國大使共進午餐。

The French ambassador reiterates France's complete support.

法國大使重申法國的全力支持。

The British ambassador says that Britain sympathizes,

英國大使說英國同情俄國，

but that he can't make any commitments.

但他沒辦法承諾什麼。

Now it's afternoon.

下午。

The Russian ministers reconvene.

俄羅斯的部長們再度開會。

With Sazonov confirming the unwavering support of the French,

薩宗諾夫證實法國毫不動搖的支持，

they decide to fully back Serbia, even to the point of war.

於是他們決定全心全力支持塞爾維亞，甚至願意參戰。

And now it's evening.

傍晚。

Sazonov meets with Pourtàles, the ambassador from Germany.

薩宗諾夫與德國大使波達爾斯(Friedrich Pourtalès)會面。

Pourtàles begs Sazonov to call off Russian mobilization.

波達爾斯拜託薩宗諾夫取消動員。

He tells him that there must be solidarity between the monarchies,

他告訴他，帝國之間一定要團結，

that they must work together or all fall alone.

他們必須攜手合作，否則他們都將各自墜入深淵。

The argument gets heated.

爭執愈演愈烈。

Pourtàles tell Sazonov there will be revolution--

波達爾斯告訴薩宗諾夫，如果帝國不一起合作，

revolution in Europe if the monarchies did not work together.

未來革命之火將燒遍歐洲。

If they don't work together, all of the crowns will fall.

如果他們不一起合作，各個皇室將會垮台。

And he's right.

而他切中事實。

Within five years, all the great monarchies of Europe,

五年之內，歐洲各大君主國，

true monarchies, monarchies where the monarch was the head of state,

真正以君王為一國之首的君主國，

would collapse.

都會瓦解。

Within five years, the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire,

五年內，鄂圖曼帝國、奧匈帝國、

the Russian Empire, and the German Empire would be no more,

俄羅斯帝國、德意志帝國都將不復存在，

their kings dispossessed,

君王變得身無分文，

thousands of years of monarchical tradition burned away

千年的君主專制傳統

in the fires of cataclysmic war.

在災難性的戰火中焚燒殆盡。

Then something tragic happens.

然後一場悲劇發生了。

It's one of those small tragedies that lines the path to the First World War,

它是在第一次世界大戰之前的其中一個小悲劇，

those things that tear you up

那種你在事後讀到這些事情時，

as you read about these events with perfect hindsight.

會潸然落淚，備感惋惜的小悲劇。

It's one of those moments that almost makes this seem like a script,

正是這種時候會讓這種小悲劇看起來像是寫好的劇本，

like a high drama constructed for the stage,

彷彿是一場為了舞台而編的，高潮迭起的戲劇，

until you realize how real it is.

直到你發覺它是多麼血淋淋。

Real enough to wipe out a generation.

一整個世代斷送干戈的血淋淋。

For you see, Sazonov utters the words

你看，薩宗諾夫說出：

“If Austria-Hungary swallows Serbia, we will go to war.”

「如果奧匈帝國吞併塞爾維亞，我們就會參戰。」

Did you catch it?

你注意到了嗎？

If not, that's all right.

沒有了話，沒關係。

Neither did Pourtàles.

波達爾斯也沒注意到。

Poor Pourtàles, who so desperately wants to avoid war.

可憐的波達爾斯，他是多麼想要避免戰爭。

You see, Russia's main concern was that Austria would annex Serbia.

其實，俄羅斯的主要擔憂是，奧地利會吞併塞爾維亞。

If the Austrians planned to conquer Serbia, then it had to be war.

如果奧地利人打算征服塞爾維亞，那麼戰爭是不可避免的。

But remember earlier

但先前

when the Austro-Hungarians were arguing among themselves about the ultimatum,

當奧地利人和匈牙利人對於最後通牒互相爭辯時，

that Hungarian element wouldn't lend its voice to war

匈牙利的那一部份不願支持戰爭，

unless the other members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire

除非奧匈帝國的其他成員

agreed that they would not annex a foot of Serbian soil.

同意不吞併塞爾維亞的寸草寸土。

Well, nobody told Pourtàles.

但沒有人告訴波達爾斯。

He was the German ambassador, not the Austrian ambassador,

他是德國大使，不是奧地利大使，

and somehow the memo never got to him

奧地利不打算佔領塞爾維亞這件事

that the Austrians had no plans to actually take over Serbia.

竟然沒有傳到他手上。

So in their whole discussion,

所以這他們的整場討論中，

he never gets to communicate this to Sazonov.

他沒能把這件事溝通給薩宗諾夫。

This may be one of the last moments where the world could have avoided this war.

這可能是全世界能避免此次戰爭的最後一次機會。

Pourtàles' impassioned begging for peace.

波達爾斯激切地懇求和平。

Sazonov firmly stating the Russian case.

薩宗諾夫堅定地陳述俄羅斯的想法。

The two diplomats meeting in the quiet St. Petersburg night.

兩位外交官在聖彼得堡(St. Petersburg)的晚上會面。

But the world hinges on small things,

但世界的走向往往取決於小事情，

and in that gentle night,

而在平靜的夜晚，

one of the last the world would know for years,

戰前所剩無幾平靜的夜晚之中，

the opportunity is missed.

世界錯過了一次機會。

The hands of fate tighten around the neck of Europe.

命運的雙手掐緊歐洲的脖子。

The next day, the Austrians reject demands that they extend the deadline;

隔天，奧地利人拒絕延長期限；

the Kaiser at last decides to return to Germany;

凱撒總算回到德國；

and two minutes before the ultimatum expires,

最後通牒前兩分鐘，

the Serbians send Austria their reply.

塞爾維亞人回信給奧地利。

But that's a story for next time.

欲知後事如何，請待下回分解。

We'll see you then.

下次見！

♪ ♪

[ ♪ ♪ 音樂]

Captions Provided by:

The University of Georgia Disability Resource Center

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