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    [♪ ♪ 音樂]

  • [male narrator] The 5th of July, 1914.

    1914年7月5日

  • The Archduke and Duchess are dead.

    大公夫婦已死

  • Gavrilo Princip is in jail

    加夫里洛·普林西普(Gavrilo Princip)被押入大牢

  • but catastrophe is not yet certain.

    但事情還沒到無法挽回的地步。

  • Act Two begins.

    第二幕開始。

  • We open on an Austrian delegation arriving in Potsdam.

    奧地利代表正要抵達波茨坦(Potsdam)。

  • It is now a week after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand.

    時間是法蘭茲·斐迪南(Franz Ferdinand) 遇刺的一星期後。

  • The Austrians want to take action.

    奧地利人打算採取行動。

  • They want war with the Serbs,

    他們想要和塞爾維亞人一戰

  • who they think are behind the group of ragged young men

    他們認為塞爾維亞人背後支持那群衣衫襤褸的年輕人

  • that actually pulled the trigger.

    執行刺殺行動。

  • But before they can have their war,

    但在他們能得到他們想要的戰爭前,

  • they decide they must consult with their much stronger ally:

    他們決定要先和 比他們強好幾倍的盟友,

  • The German Empire.

    德意志帝國(German Empire)諮商。

  • So they send a delegation to Potsdam

    所以他們派了一位代表去波茨坦

  • to meet with the Kaiser, Wilhelm II.

    和凱撒(Kaiser)威廉二世(Wilhelm II)會面。

  • They've been restrained before by Germany,

    他們之前被德國制約過,

  • held back from acting in the Balkans,

    德國曾阻止他們在巴爾幹半島大張旗鼓,

  • so they need to know what Germany plans to do.

    所以他們必須知道德國的如意算盤。

  • They go to the Kaiser and tell him that this is intolerable,

    他們去找凱撒,並告訴他,這是不可容忍的,

  • that they cannot abide such a humiliation,

    他們不能吞下這口氣,

  • that they cannot let this act of terrorism go unpunished.

    他們不能讓此次恐怖攻擊的策劃者逍遙法外。

  • And the Kaiser says to them, “We'll back you, whatever you do.

    然後凱撒對他們說,「不論你們要做什麼,我們會支持你們的。

  • "Just act and act quickly.

    但切要迅速行動,

  • Germany is behind you, without reservation.”

    德國會毫無保留地支持你。」

  • The Kaiser thinks that general war can be avoided,

    凱撒認為全面戰爭是可以避免的,

  • that if the Austrians strike while all of Europe is enraged over this assassination,

    只要奧地利人趁著全歐洲對這次刺殺義憤填膺之時 反擊,

  • if they act while the brutal slaughter of the Archduke and Duchess

    只要他們趁著大公夫婦慘死一事仍然在

  • is still fresh in people's minds,

    眾人心中記憶猶新時行動,

  • no one will raise a finger to defend Serbia.

    沒有人會願意插一根手指來保護塞爾維亞。

  • And even if--

    而且,即使─

  • even if the Russian Empire decided that they wanted to protect their Serbian allies,

    即使俄羅斯帝國(Russian Empire)決定他們要保護塞爾維亞的小兄弟,

  • if the Austrians can strike quickly it'll be a fait accompli

    只要奧地利迅速攻擊,勝利就會成為「既定事實」─

  • The war will be over before the Russians can mobilize their forces.

    俄羅斯人還沒動員,戰爭就會結束了。

  • This is what he thinks as he tells the Austrian delegation

    當他告訴奧地利代表時,這是他所打的如意算盤

  • that they have a blank check,

    他們只有一張空頭支票─

  • that Germany will back them whatever they do.

    「不管他們做什麼,德國會支持他們。」

  • And then he goes on vacation--

    然後他跑去放長假─

  • on a boat for three weeks, where he can't be reached.

    長達三周的渡船之旅,此時沒有人能聯絡上他。

  • So the Austrians come home, German assurances in hand,

    所以奧地利人帶著德國人的保證回家了,

  • but in Austria there's disagreement.

    但是在奧地利出現了歧議。

  • The Hungarian part of their empire initially objects to war.

    奧匈帝國中的匈牙利(Hungary)一開始反對戰爭

  • They hoped that a peaceful solution might be found.

    他們希望能有一個和平的解決方案

  • But their voice is alone.

    但他們孤掌難鳴。

  • Where were the other voices of reason or the other arguments for peace?

    其他理性的聲音和 替和平發聲的論辯去哪了呢?

  • Dead on the streets of Sarajevo.

    大都已經葬在塞拉耶佛(Sarajevo)的街道上。

  • The Archduke was perhaps the greatest defender of the Serbs in the Empire,

    大公可能是當時帝國中挺塞爾維亞人一派最顯赫的人。

  • and so when moderation was called for,

    所以當有人呼籲大家節制一點時,

  • the parties for war simply had to point to his death and say,

    主戰派只需指向他的遺照,說:

  • He was their greatest friend and look what they did to him!

    「他曾是他們最要好的朋友,可是你看他們對他怎麼了?

  • What do you think they're gonna do to us?”

    你覺得他們會對我們做什麼?」

  • And all arguments were quelled.

    於是所有的反戰論調都被壓制了。

  • So, at last, the Hungarians relented on one condition,

    於是,最後,匈牙利人指要求一項條件作為宣戰的前提─

  • a condition that will be important later--

    這個條件之後會很重要─

  • that the Austro-Hungarian Empire would not annex a foot of Serbian land.

    奧匈帝國不會吞併塞爾維亞的寸草寸土。

  • And with that, the Austrians began drafting an ultimatum to Serbia.

    於是,奧地利人開始草擬對塞爾維亞的最後通牒。

  • But this ultimatum is delayed by a chance for peace.

    但這張最後通牒被一次和平的可能拖延了

  • Two men, rivals in the heart of Serbia,

    兩個男人,在塞爾維亞之心的兩位對手,

  • in Belgrade, the very capital in the center of this crisis,

    在貝爾格勒(Belgrade),此次危機的正中央中,

  • are two of the only men farsighted enough

    唯有這兩個男人有足夠的遠見,

  • to see the clouds gathering on the edge of Europe.

    看得到從歐洲邊緣逼近的烏雲。

  • They are the ambassador from Austria and the ambassador from Russia to Serbia.

    他們是奧地利和俄羅斯駐塞爾維亞的大使。

  • They both have come to the same conclusion about where this storm will end,

    他們已經得到了相同的結論。

  • so they plan to put aside their differences

    所以他們打算捨盡前嫌,

  • and meet to perhaps work out a plan for peace.

    互相碰面,找出維護和平的方案。

  • On the 10th of July, the Russian ambassador arrives

    7月10日,俄羅斯大使抵達

  • at the house of the ambassador from Austria-Hungary.

    奧匈大使的住家。

  • The details are agreed to.

    在細節上兩人已達成共識。

  • The plan is set.

    計畫就緒。

  • All that's left is one final meeting to perhaps smooth out tensions,

    只差最後一次會面,以求舒緩緊繃的形勢,

  • to avert world war.

    避免世界大戰爆發。

  • They talk, they take cigarettes.

    他們相談,共享香菸。

  • Both sides are open, things are going well,

    雙方大方討論,事情順遂地進展。

  • and then WHAM--

    然後 ─ 砰!

  • The Russian ambassador falls dead of a heart attack.

    俄羅斯大使心臟病突發,猝死。

  • Nothing signed.

    什麼都沒簽到。

  • No war stopped.

    沒能阻止戰爭。

  • The Serbians blame the Austrians.

    塞爾維亞人責怪奧地利人。

  • Rumors circulate that they had the Russian ambassador assassinated,

    謠言說奧地利人刺殺了俄羅斯大使,

  • that the Austrian ambassador killed him in his own house.

    奧地利大使在他家裡把俄羅斯大使殺了。

  • Worse still, this leaves the Russians without an ambassador in Serbia.

    更糟的是,現在俄羅斯人在塞爾維亞沒有使節了。

  • As events begin to accelerate toward war,

    當一切都朝向戰爭加速推進時,

  • they have no diplomatic channel at the center of everything.

    他們在一切的中心沒有外交管道。

  • No lines of communication.

    沒有溝通管道。

  • No eyes or ears on the ground.

    如同矇住眼睛,堵住耳朵。

  • They have nobody with the experience, connections, or familiarity with Serbia

    他們沒有人跟前任大使一樣對塞爾維亞有足夠的經驗、連結或熟悉度

  • that the former ambassador had to send out.

    可以讓他們派出去。

  • And even if they did, it'd take weeks to get them appointed

    即使他們有這樣的人才,仍需要好幾個禮拜才能把他安排上任

  • and shipped from Moscow to Sarajevo.

    並載他從莫斯科到塞拉耶弗。

  • Weeks they don't have.

    他們沒有那麼多時間。

  • But with this last overture turning to catastrophe,

    當最後的序章即將轉入大災難的正曲時,

  • the Austrians decide it's finally time to send their ultimatum.

    奧地利人決定該是時候交上他們的最後通牒。

  • But they can't.

    但他們交不出去。

  • Again, they delay.

    他們一拖再拖。

  • You see, President Poincaré the leader of France,

    其實,法國總統普恩加萊(Raymond Poincaré),法國的領導人,

  • is going to Russia to meet with the czar.

    正要去俄羅斯和沙皇會面。

  • And the Austrians, ever nervous, decide that they can't send the ultimatum

    奧地利人見狀,緊張了起來,並決定他們不能在他們的

  • while their two greatest adversaries are meeting together in the same place.

    兩個頭號敵人在同一地會面的時候送出最後通牒。

  • It would never do.

    絕對不行。

  • They could make decisions too quickly.

    他們倆在一起可以快速地做決定。

  • They could coordinate in ways they normally couldn't when they're a thousand miles apart.

    他們可以超乎平常地相互協調決策。

  • So the Austrians delay.

    所以奧地利人繼續等。

  • They wait until Poincaré is a hundred miles out to sea

    他們等到普恩加萊出海一百哩,

  • before sending their ultimatum.

    才寄出他們的最後通牒。

  • But at last, on the 23rd of July,

    最後,7月23日,

  • an ultimatum is sent from the Austrians to the Serbs.

    一封最後通牒從奧地利人手上到了塞爾維亞人手上。

  • The Serbs have 48 hours to agree to all points,

    塞爾維亞人有四十八小時同意每一項要求,

  • or face war.

    否則就得一戰。

  • The ultimatum asks many things,

    最後通牒上要求了許多東西,

  • but most of all it asks that Austrian police be granted free reign

    但最重要的是,它要求奧地利警方能逕行

  • to investigate the assassination on Serbian soil.

    至塞爾維亞的土壤上調查刺殺事件。

  • This is impossible.

    這根本不可能。

  • To agree to such a thing is tantamount to giving up sovereignty.

    同意這種要求等同放棄國家主權。

  • No nation would accept this.

    沒有國家會接受這種要求。

  • But that's all right because the ultimatum is only a ruse anyway,

    但沒關係,這封最後通牒只是個幌子而已,

  • a cover for with the Austrians really want.

    作為奧地利人得到真正想要的東西的藉口。

  • The Austrians want war.

    奧地利想要戰爭。

  • They want the ultimatum to be rejected

    他們想要最後通牒被拒絕,

  • because they want to appear to the world

    因為他們想要看起來

  • as though they gave the Serbs a chance to avoid a conflict.

    他們已經給了塞爾維亞人一次機會避免衝突。

  • They want to appear blame-free for the invasion they're planning.

    他們想要不因他們正在策畫的侵略而被歸咎。

  • And here's where things begin to speed up.

    局勢的步調此時開始加速。

  • Europe begins to boil.

    全歐洲開始沸騰。

  • Up until this point, the crisis in the Balkans is just another event on the world stage,

    在這一刻之前,巴爾幹半島上的危機只是世界舞台上的另一個事件而已,

  • but all of a sudden, with the release of this ultimatum,

    但突然,一當最後通牒被公布,

  • people start to clue into what's happening.

    人們開始想知道現在正在發生什麼事。

  • Powers outside of Austria, Germany, and Serbia begin to pay attention.

    奧地利、德國和塞爾維亞外的各方力量開始關注此事。

  • But for us, we're gonna turn our attention to one man:

    但我們要聚焦在一個人身上:

  • Sergei Sazonov.

    謝爾蓋·薩宗諾夫(Sergei Sazonov)。

  • Sergei Sazonov was the foreign minister of Russia,

    謝爾蓋·薩宗諾夫當時是俄羅斯的外交部長,

  • and for him the 24th of July is about to be a very, very busy day.

    對他來說,7月24日將會成為非常忙碌的議天。

  • In the morning,

    早上,

  • he wakes to receive the terms of the ultimatum that Austria sent to Serbia.

    他一醒來,收到了奧地利對塞爾維亞最後通牒的條件。

  • He reads quietly to himself,

    他低聲讀出每一字,

  • then turns to an aide and fatefully utters,

    然後轉向一位助手,說出:

  • It's a European war.”

    「是一場歐洲大戰。」

  • A cabinet meeting is hastily assembled.

    內閣會議倉促地招開了。

  • The highest levels of the Russian government are all there.

    俄羅斯政府的最高層都到場了。

  • They resolve to ask the Austrians to give the Serbs more time,

    他們決心懇求奧地利人給塞爾維亞人更多時間,

  • while at the same time pushing the Serbs not to resist the Austrians.

    同時要求塞爾維亞人不要抵抗奧地利人。

  • They also make the fateful decision to begin a partial mobilization

    他們也決定開始部分動員,

  • of their forces along the Austrian border,

    在奧地利邊境一帶駐兵,

  • trying to play all the angles at once in the schizophrenic chaos

    嘗試在大戰前縱橫交錯的混沌中

  • that seemed all too common in the days just before the war.

    從各個角度切入。

  • Now it's noon.

    中午。

  • Sazonov takes lunch with the French and British ambassador.

    薩宗諾夫與法國和英國大使共進午餐。

  • The French ambassador reiterates France's complete support.

    法國大使重申法國的全力支持。

  • The British ambassador says that Britain sympathizes,

    英國大使說英國同情俄國,

  • but that he can't make any commitments.

    但他沒辦法承諾什麼。

  • Now it's afternoon.

    下午。

  • The Russian ministers reconvene.

    俄羅斯的部長們再度開會。

  • With Sazonov confirming the unwavering support of the French,

    薩宗諾夫證實法國毫不動搖的支持,

  • they decide to fully back Serbia, even to the point of war.

    於是他們決定全心全力支持塞爾維亞,甚至願意參戰。

  • And now it's evening.

    傍晚。

  • Sazonov meets with Pourtàles, the ambassador from Germany.

    薩宗諾夫與德國大使波達爾斯(Friedrich Pourtalès)會面。

  • Pourtàles begs Sazonov to call off Russian mobilization.

    波達爾斯拜託薩宗諾夫取消動員。

  • He tells him that there must be solidarity between the monarchies,

    他告訴他,帝國之間一定要團結,

  • that they must work together or all fall alone.

    他們必須攜手合作,否則他們都將各自墜入深淵。

  • The argument gets heated.

    爭執愈演愈烈。

  • Pourtàles tell Sazonov there will be revolution--

    波達爾斯告訴薩宗諾夫,如果帝國不一起合作,

  • revolution in Europe if the monarchies did not work together.

    未來革命之火將燒遍歐洲。

  • If they don't work together, all of the crowns will fall.

    如果他們不一起合作,各個皇室將會垮台。

  • And he's right.

    而他切中事實。

  • Within five years, all the great monarchies of Europe,

    五年之內,歐洲各大君主國,

  • true monarchies, monarchies where the monarch was the head of state,

    真正以君王為一國之首的君主國,

  • would collapse.

    都會瓦解。

  • Within five years, the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire,

    五年內,鄂圖曼帝國、奧匈帝國、