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  • Cicero once said that the "Sinews of war were infinite money."

  • Never has that been more true than in the second World War.

  • This little bonus extra history series is going to be all about

  • the complex economic struggle that underpinned the most colossal conflict in human history.

  • These episodes are happening courtesy of the good folks at Paradox.

  • who, after seeing those old Punic Wars episodes we made,

  • approached us asking to sponsor a few episodes about the economic aspects of World War II.

  • in anticipation of the upcoming release of Hearts Of Iron 4.

  • And it's a great topic idea, so lets jump right in.

  • First, let me set the stage.

  • The year is 1939

  • Storm clouds are gathering over Europe. Hitler has already grabbed Austria,

  • And Czechoslovakia is being gobbled up.

  • The Italians have conquered Albania. Even as many tried to deny it, every nation knows.

  • War is coming.

  • Meanwhile, in the east, the Japanese have annexed Manchuria, and are pushing further into China.

  • Chinese resistance movements have flared up. For all intents and purposes, the east is already at war.

  • But most of the major players all have one goal in mind.

  • Resources.

  • Economic power, industrial installations, natural resources.

  • These all needed to be gathered and hoarded as quickly as possible, because every state knows

  • when war truly breaks all bounds, all the trade that keeps the world economy functioning will grind to a halt.

  • Or so it was thought, in fact, many expected that the European nations would avoid war

  • because their economies couldn't survive economic isolation.

  • But, that assumption hadn't kept the first World War from breaking out.

  • And it wouldn't keep the second.

  • In truth, many of the pre-war planners had learned from the first World War

  • And started preparing for just such a breakdown in trade years in advance.

  • So let's take a look at the economies of some of the major players right at the outset of the war.

  • The first big three are Germany, France, and Great Britain.

  • These are the major European nations that would be in direct conflict with each other from the get go.

  • Germany, having been disarmed after World War I, had come roaring out of the Great Depression with

  • One of the largest armaments programs the world had ever seen.

  • France had invested heavily in static defenses.

  • And Great Britain had restarted its fleet construction program, after the lull from the Washington naval treaty.

  • But to really compare these countries we're going to have to talk numbers.

  • The way I see it, there are four statistics you really have to consider when talking about countries involved in a global war.

  • First, GDP. Or Gross Domestic Product.

  • This tells you roughly how big an economy is.

  • How much raw production it's capable of.

  • Which, of course, translates directly into tanks, bombs, guns, the materiel of war.

  • Second, population.

  • When we're looking at massive global conflicts that are gonna determine the very survival of nations,

  • you've gotta look at the manpower they can draw upon.

  • The larger the population, the larger the armies that nation can field.

  • With more of industrialized countries being able to draw on larger sections of their populace without disrupting the flow of basic goods like grain.

  • If a conflict becomes a long term struggle

  • population count becomes increasingly important as attrition starts to mount.

  • Third, territorial extent.

  • This isn't a perfect measure by any stretch, but it serves to give us a surface level idea of relative natural resource control.

  • In modern economies that require every thing from oil, to rubber, to aluminum to run.

  • Territorial extent gives us a very rough idea of how self sufficient these economies might be if cut off from global trade.

  • It also tells us how much ground a nation can give up without being knocked out of the fight.

  • Though, it is worth noting that greater territorial extent also generally makes mobilization more difficult.

  • And defense more complex, so it's kind of a trade-off in some ways.

  • Fourth, per capita income.

  • Individual wage may seem like a strange metric when thinking of war time economy,

  • but it gives you a good idea of how developed an economy is.

  • The higher the individual wage, the more advanced an economy you're usually dealing with.

  • And this is actually super important, because in general,

  • larger economies can take bigger hits without crumbling.

  • Bombing one factory won't cause production to grind to a halt.

  • They'll have a greater ability to synthesize or find alternatives for natural resources they don't have.

  • They have a better internal network for transportation and distribution and such.

  • So a nation that has a more advanced economy, even if it has the same GDP as another country,

  • it can remain an effective combatant much longer than a nation with a less advanced economy.

  • This is why china collapsed into a guerrilla war almost immediately, rather than fronting a centralized state effort.

  • And it's why Italy capitulated so much quicker than Germany.

  • It's also fascinating to think about in terms of the incredible Soviet effort to actually to pick up and move their entire industrial base

  • in the face of a German invasion.

  • But we'll get to that later.

  • For right now, let's look at some numbers.

  • Now all of the monetary figures I'm going to use here are in 1990 U.S dollars.

  • Just because thats how the most comprehensive data set I found converted it

  • So, the U.K has a population of 47 and a half million.

  • A territorial reach of 245 thousand square kilometers.

  • A GDP of 284.2 billion dollars.

  • And a per capita income of about 5,983 dollars.

  • Now, when compared to Germany's numbers with a population of 68.6 million

  • 473 thousand square kilometers of territory

  • A GDP of 351.4 billion

  • And a per capita income of 5,126 per head

  • The U.K's numbers may look a bit low, but

  • first we've gotta factor in France.

  • Which had a population of 42 million.

  • A territorial reach of 551 thousand square kilometers.

  • A GDP of 185.6 billion,

  • and a per capita income 4,424 dollars.

  • And perhaps far more importantly, we also have to factor in the British empire.

  • If you add in all of the colonies and dominions that Britain held at the time,

  • that's a whopping 483.8 million people

  • 34,179,000 square kilometers in territory,

  • and 391 billion in GDP.

  • But granted, if you leave out some of the more economically advanced dominions like Canada and Australia,

  • the colonies' collective per capita GDP was only 627 dollars.

  • So, less great.

  • Sorry, I know that was a lot of numbers, but what does it all tell us?

  • All of those numbers basically tell us that Germany needed to win this war before

  • the U.K could bring it's empire to bear.

  • But it also tells us that British empire was unwieldy.

  • It was spread out and had an incredibly low per capita GDP in a lot of places.

  • which meant that there wasn't a lot in those places that could be diverted to war production.

  • and those sections of the empire would probably collapse at the first show of hostile force.

  • And that reality very much played into the overarching strategy of the war.

  • Blitzkrieg was not only a tactical or even a strategic idea

  • but an operational one.

  • Germany had stockpiled materiel before the war.

  • They believed that they had better military leadership,

  • and better esprit de corps

  • Their great hope was to expand fast enough using those early advantages to win total victory,

  • But their more realistic planning told them that they still had no choice but to expand rapidly.

  • So that they could bring in the resources, population, and industrial capacity

  • that they would need to fight a protracted war.

  • Seizing an early advantage was Germany's best chance.

  • Meanwhile, on the other side of the world,

  • Japan was in much the same situation.

  • The famous Japanese admiral Yamamoto estimated that he could win for 6 months

  • If the U.S entered the war.

  • But if Japan had not secured victory by then, loss was assured.

  • If we look at the statistics for Japan and China,

  • which I'll put down below just so I don't belabor you with more numbers

  • We can see that China has a substantially higher population, and thus also a higher GDP

  • but, a much lower per capita GDP.

  • Meaning that China would probably lose a conventional war but they'd still be

  • very hard to occupy if they got any outside help.

  • And then there were the two wildcards.

  • The United States and the Soviet Union.

  • The Soviet Union had vast natural resources, a huge population and a high GDP.

  • but, with a low per capita wage.

  • Meaning they had a less advanced economy than many of the other European powers.

  • Russia would play an enormous role in the struggle to come,

  • But economically it's entire focus would be using what

  • industrial resources it had to arm and equip the vast forces it could muster.

  • The United States on the other hand, for the entire length of the war,

  • From 1938, well before it was involved, to the war's conclusion in 1945

  • Had a GDP greater than every major Axis power combined.

  • A GDP which was also greater than all the other major Allies put together.

  • Not only that, but the U.S was protected by oceans from the conflict itself.

  • This is why the United States would serve as the arsenal of democracy.

  • Join us next time as we talk about Lend-Lease,

  • and how American industrial output would be used to keep its beleaguered soon to be Allies afloat,

  • before the American nation gathered the will to fight.

  • See ya then.

Cicero once said that the "Sinews of war were infinite money."

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WW2: The Resource War - Arsenal of Democracy - Extra History - #1(WW2: The Resource War - Arsenal of Democracy - Extra History - #1)

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    香蕉先生 發佈於 2022 年 06 月 25 日
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