Name: 加密貨幣正在崩潰。抵押貸款利率正在飆升。以下是這一切意味著什麼 (Crypto is collapsing. Mortgage rates are soaring. Here’s what it all means)
Uploaded: 2022-06-20T17:05:24.000Z
Duration: 16 min 12 s

Mhm Hi, I'm john Saarland and this is nightcap.

你好，我是約翰-薩蘭，這是nightcap。

動名詞

The markets are closed but we're just getting started.

市場已經關閉，但我們才剛剛開始。

First up inflation blues, we've been told it's recession or inflation, Is it really that simple then?

首先是通貨膨脹的憂慮，我們被告知要麼是經濟衰退，要麼是通貨膨脹，那麼真的有那麼簡單嗎？

We'll explore why you probably shouldn't buy the dip and last self driving cars are driving themselves into other cars.

我們將探討為什麼你可能不應該購買浸泡，以及最後的自動駕駛汽車正在駕駛自己撞上其他汽車。

So first up yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that interest rates will be raised 75 basis points in a hail Mary attempt to slow down inflation here.

是以，首先是昨天，美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾宣佈，將加息75個基點，試圖減緩這裡的通貨膨脹。

We can see the inflation index, it's going up, we can see that here.

我們可以看到通貨膨脹指數，它正在上升，我們可以在這裡看到。

當然，我們現在都有這種感覺。

The Feds hope is that increasing interest rates making money more expensive to borrow will slow down the economy.

美聯儲希望提高利率，使借錢更貴，從而使經濟放緩。

Just enough to lower inflation, but not enough to cause a recession.

足夠降低通貨膨脹，但不足以導致經濟衰退。

That's the quote soft landing here to join us is CNN's matt.

這是引用軟著陸這裡加入我們是CNN的馬特。

So matt, tell us will this soft landing actually work?

那麼，馬特，告訴我們這個軟著陸是否真的會成功？

No one knows john uh that that's you know, the honest answer here?

沒有人知道約翰-呃，這就是你知道的，這裡的誠實答案？

Not even the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, He was asked this question yesterday.

甚至美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾也沒有，他昨天被問到這個問題。

You know, do you do you still think that there's a chance for a soft landing?

你知道，你是否仍然認為有機會軟著陸？

But even Powell conceded that it's been made a lot more challenging by the last few months because inflation keeps getting hotter because gasoline prices are at record highs the war in Ukraine china, Covid lockdowns there's all these supply issues so they don't really know whether or not, uh they're gonna be able to get inflation under control uh without causing a recession.

但即使是鮑威爾也承認，過去幾個月的挑戰更大了，因為通貨膨脹不斷變熱，因為汽油價格處於歷史高位，烏克蘭戰爭，中國，Covid封鎖，還有所有這些供應問題，所以他們真的不知道，呃，他們是否能夠在不引起經濟衰退的情況下控制住通貨膨脹呃。

I mean I like to think of it as this was basically a fire and the firefighters were late to the scene.

我的意思是，我喜歡把它想成這基本上是一場火災，而消防員到現場時已經晚了。

The Fed is supposed to be the firefighters, so they didn't really think this was a big deal.

美聯儲應該是消防員，所以他們並不真的認為這是一個大問題。

They thought the fire would put itself out now.

They're they're right now, they're actually calling in reinforcements, They're doing everything they can to put the fire out.

他們現在正在召集增援，他們正在盡一切努力將火撲滅。

But the question is, you know, whether or not they're too late because as you mentioned, if they do too much here, they could end up accidentally slowing the economy right into a recession which would obviously be terrible because then you'd be talking about millions of people losing their jobs and small businesses shutting down so hopefully they're gonna be able to get this right.

但問題是，你知道，他們是否太晚了，因為正如你提到的，如果他們在這裡做得太多，他們最終可能會意外地使經濟放緩，直接進入經濟衰退，這顯然是可怕的，因為那時你會談論數百萬人失去工作，小企業關閉，所以希望他們能夠得到這個權利。

But it's not gonna be easy here john let's talk about that runaway inflation this week.

但這裡不會很容易，約翰讓我們在本週談談那個失控的通貨膨脹。

Deutsche Bank came out with a report about inflation rates throughout the globe and the U.

德意志銀行發佈了一份關於全球通脹率和美國通脹率的報告。

Was actually in the middle of the pack there.

那麼，為什麼通貨膨脹在上升？

Not just here, but as we can see in the start, why is it rising seemingly everywhere?

不僅僅是這裡，正如我們在開始時看到的那樣，為什麼它似乎到處都在上升？

Yeah, no doubt this is a global problem as much as politically it's sort of pinned only on the White House and President biden.

是的，毫無疑問，這是一個全球性的問題，就像在政治上它只被釘在白宮和拜登總統身上一樣。

This is something that um economies around the world are dealing with and I think this is really first because of Covid, I mean we had no inflation actually alarmingly low inflation, believe it or not for many years.

這是世界各地的經濟正在處理的事情，我認為這確實是首先因為科維德，我的意思是我們沒有通貨膨脹，實際上是驚人的低通貨膨脹，不管你信不信，已經很多年了。

And central bankers were really concerned about that even though that sounds amazing right now.

而央行行長們真的很擔心這一點，儘管現在聽起來很神奇。

But what happened was Covid caused all of these supply problems, supply of workers, supply chains that have been messed up.

但是發生的事情是Covid造成了所有這些供應問題，工人的供應，供應鏈被搞亂了。

And then you throw on top of that these shifts in demand.

然後你把這些需求的轉變扔在上面。

Uh And then the economy goes from crashing and completely shut down to all of a sudden lights back on reopened and it was just too much for the system to handle.

呃 然後經濟從崩潰和完全關閉到突然間燈火通明重新開放，它只是太多，系統無法處理。

So you have Covid, then you have subsequent waves of Covid delta omicron causing you know, other supply issues.

是以，你有Covid，然後你有後續的Covid delta omicron波，導致你知道，其他供應問題。

And then you throw on top of that the war in Ukraine which is involving Russia is just a commodity superstore.

然後你把烏克蘭的戰爭扔在上面，這涉及到俄羅斯只是一個商品超級市場。

So supply of food and energy out of Russia and Ukraine has been all messed up.

是以，俄羅斯和烏克蘭的糧食和能源供應已經完全混亂了。

And then we can't forget about the fact that In the United States and other countries, we really saw this just incredible unprecedented response to the crisis.

然後我們不能忘記這樣一個事實：在美國和其他國家，我們真的看到了這種難以置信的對危機的空前反應。

Initially in 2020 right central bank doing things that it never did before.

最初在2020年正確的中央銀行做以前從未做過的事情。

Um Congress, the trump administration and the by administration pumping in just massive amounts of stimulus and other countries did this as well.

國會、特朗普政府和美國政府都採取了大量的刺激措施，其他國家也是如此。

So you put it all together, it was this perfect storm, let's talk about cooling prices.

所以你把這一切放在一起，這是一場完美的風暴，讓我們來談談冷卻價格。

I want to ask you about 11 specific pricing which is housing prices obviously over the last few years, we've seen this huge increase in housing prices, which has accompanied record low mortgage rates.

我想問你11個具體的定價，也就是住房價格，顯然在過去幾年，我們看到了住房價格的巨大增長，這也伴隨著創紀錄的低抵押貸款利率。

And because of that, housing has become too expensive for a lot of people now, mortgage rates have spiked on the heels of the Fed decision.

也正因為如此，現在住房對很多人來說已經變得太貴了，抵押貸款利率在美聯儲決定之後飆升。

Do we have a sense of what that will mean for housing prices?

我們是否瞭解這對住房價格意味著什麼？

Well, we know that demand has been insane for homes, right?

好吧，我們知道，對房屋的需求一直是瘋狂的，對嗎？

Part of this was Covid, There's a lot of different factors here.

這其中有一部分是Covid，這裡有很多不同的因素。

Um but we've already seen that the spike in mortgage rates has driven demand for mortgages down dramatically.

嗯，但我們已經看到，抵押貸款利率的飆升已經促使抵押貸款的需求大幅下降。

And we just learned today that there was the biggest spike in mortgage rates since 1987, they're almost at 6% on average for a 30 year uh fixed rate mortgage.

我們今天剛剛得知，抵押貸款利率出現了自1987年以來最大的飆升，30年呃固定利率抵押貸款的平均利率幾乎達到6%。

我的意思是，這實在是太神奇了。

Six or seven months ago, they were below 3%.

And so the higher rates go, the less home that people can afford, right?

是以，利率越高，人們能買得起的房子就越少，對嗎？

Because a certain amount of that monthly payment now has to go towards interest, A lot of people who bought homes a year ago would never be able to buy that same home today, because they just wouldn't be able to afford it.

因為現在每月付款的一定數額必須用於支付利息，很多一年前買房的人今天將永遠無法購買同樣的房子，因為他們根本無法負擔。

If supply stays roughly the same demand goes down because of higher mortgage rates, then we couldn't see at least a cooling off of prices, but it's also possible that we could see declines in prices.

如果供應量大致保持不變，需求量因為抵押貸款利率的提高而下降，那麼我們至少不能看到價格的冷卻，但也有可能看到價格的下降。

Maybe not a crash like the one in 2000 and six and seven and eight.

也許不會像2000年和6、7、8年那樣發生崩潰。

Uh but maybe some sort of a cooling off, which wouldn't be the worst thing because right now prices for homes are so high that it is just forcing first time home buyers out of the market and it's going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.

呃，但也許是某種冷卻，這不會是最糟糕的事情，因為現在房屋價格如此之高，以至於它只是迫使首次購房者離開市場，這將是令人著迷的，看它如何發展。

Whether or not we actually see prices outright decline in the coming months.

無論我們是否真的看到價格在未來幾個月徹底下降。

Next up, crypto winter is upon us, prices are falling Celsius, which billed itself as a crypto bank has frozen its users access to their funds and coin base announced it is laying off 20% of its workers.

接下來，加密貨幣的冬天來了，價格在下跌，標榜自己是加密貨幣銀行的Celsius已經凍結了用戶對其資金的訪問，coin base宣佈裁減20%的員工。

If you're not sure what any of that means.

如果你不確定這些意味著什麼。

Well, things are going very badly in the Crypto world this week.

好吧，本週加密貨幣世界的事情進展非常糟糕。

Bill Gates came out and said this about crypto obviously expensive.

比爾-蓋茨站出來說，關於加密貨幣顯然很貴。

You know, digital images of monkeys are going to improve the world immensely.

你知道，猴子的數字圖像將極大地改善世界。

It's 100% based on sort of greater fool theory that somebody's going to pay more for it than I do.

這100%是基於某種更大的傻瓜理論，即有人會比我付出更多。

I'm not long or short any of those things.

我沒有做多或做空任何這些東西。

我們的嘉賓是CNN的Allison morrow。

First off Allison, this is our first night cap show and you of course.

首先是艾莉森，這是我們的第一個夜場表演，當然還有你。

Right, CNN's nightcap newsletter so welcome.

對了，CNN的夜報通訊這麼歡迎。

Any advice now would be the time to give it oh, you're doing great.

任何建議現在都可以給它哦，你做得很好。

這對我們來說是一個非常激動人心的時刻。

Well let's talk about Bill Gates, let's talk about crypto.

好吧，讓我們談一談比爾-蓋茨，讓我們談一談加密貨幣。

Read we because we've seen crypto prices plummet, we've seen layoffs, we've seen Celsius um uh and and you know, hold its users funds and when you talk to pro crypto people right, they say that oh this has happened before, right.

閱讀我們，因為我們已經看到加密貨幣價格暴跌，我們已經看到裁員，我們已經看到Celsius嗯嗯和你知道的，持有其用戶資金，當你與支持加密貨幣的人交談時，對，他們說，哦，這以前發生過，對。

Bitcoin and crypto crashed in 2017 people wrote wrote Bitcoins obituary and then in 2020 crypto boomed.

比特幣和加密貨幣在2017年崩潰，人們寫了比特幣的訃告，然後在2020年加密貨幣蓬勃發展。

I mean we've seen kind of a wild swing down, which is nothing new for crypto.

我的意思是，我們已經看到了一種瘋狂的擺動，這對加密貨幣來說並不新鮮。

I mean we're kind of used to seeing this at this point.

我的意思是，在這一點上，我們已經有點習慣於看到這種情況了。

The difference now uh in 2022 is how big and mainstream the industry has become.

現在和2022年的區別是，這個行業已經變得多麼大和主流。

I mean so many people bought into it, especially during the pandemic when people report at home and they had extra funds in their bank accounts and they thought oh what's this crypto thing that everyone's buzzing about.

我的意思是很多人買了它，特別是在大流行期間，當人們在家裡報告時，他們的銀行賬戶裡有額外的資金，他們認為哦，每個人都在嗡嗡叫的加密貨幣是什麼東西。

And so now a lot of those people unfortunately are looking their wounds this week and praying for a rebound, which you know in the history of crypto is likely to come but it might be a painful stretch before they see the dip go back up.

是以，現在很多人不幸在本週看著自己的傷口，祈禱反彈，你知道在加密貨幣的歷史上，反彈很可能會到來，但在他們看到下跌回升之前，可能是一個痛苦的階段。

You know, I think when we see these crypto crashes happen.

你知道，我認為當我們看到這些加密貨幣崩潰發生時。

I think there's a lot of schadenfreude from, you know, the so called no coiner is the people who don't have crypto.

我認為有很多來自的幸災樂禍，你知道，所謂的無幣者就是沒有加密貨幣的人。

And we've known obviously about crypto fomo who hasn't felt that, but this kind of is like the inverse of that, where it's like a relief of missing out a Romo.

我們已經知道，顯然關於加密貨幣的fomo誰沒有感覺到，但這種是像反過來的，在那裡它是像一個救濟錯過了一個羅莫。

I don't know if that's a term, but but I like when when crypto crashes, it's not, you know, there's the apes and the that have crashed and that's funny and well good.

我不知道這是否是一個術語，但我喜歡當加密貨幣崩潰時，它不是，你知道，有猿人和已經崩潰的，這很有趣，很好。

But there's a real human cost here when this stuff crashes, right?

但是，當這些東西崩潰時，這裡有一個真正的人力成本，對嗎？

I mean you can go on Twitter right now and see plenty of crypto skeptics dunking on the crypto faithful and the people who have been saying that this is the future, this is Web three, you know.

我的意思是，你現在可以上推特，看到大量的加密貨幣懷疑論者對加密貨幣的信徒和那些一直說這是未來的人進行灌輸，這是第三條網絡，你知道。

Uh and that that sentiment goes both ways when when it's a bull market and crypto is doing well, you'll see plenty of crypto people saying, you know, have fun being poor to people who have not invested in crypto or who don't believe in it.

呃，這種情緒是雙向的，當它是一個牛市，加密貨幣表現良好時，你會看到很多加密貨幣的人說，你知道，對那些沒有投資於加密貨幣或不相信它的人來說，做窮人很有趣。

Uh It's important to remember that there are actual human beings behind some of these losses and and that's really painful.

重要的是要記住，在這些損失的背後有真正的人類，這真的很令人痛苦。

You know, coin based as you mentioned, laid off 1800 workers are no, sorry 1100 workers.

你知道，以硬幣為基礎，正如你提到的，被解僱的1800名工人是不，對不起，1100名工人。