It's not by their farts, but it's by belching.

這不是靠他們的屁，而是靠打嗝。

Cook: "A few degrees' difference is not a big deal."

庫克："幾度的差異並不是什麼大問題。"

And the way I always like to think about it too

也是我一直喜歡思考的方式

is like your body's temperature.

就像你的體溫。

If your temperature is three or four degrees warmer,

如果你的體溫升高三或四度。

then you're seriously sick.

那麼你的病就嚴重了。

"It's too late to do anything about it."

"現在做什麼都太晚了。"

Unless you're Elon Musk

除非你是埃隆-馬斯克

and gonna head off towards Mars,

並將向火星進發。

we're all stuck here,

我們都被困在這裡。

so we should try to figure out

是以，我們應該嘗試找出

how we can make it the best planet we can.

我們如何能夠使它成為最好的星球。

I'm Deepti Singh.

我是迪普提-辛格。

I'm an assistant professor

我是一名助理教授

in the School of the Environment

在環境學院

at Washington State University.

在華盛頓州立大學。

I've been studying climate change for about 11 years,

我研究氣候變化大約有11年了。

and I study extreme weather events

和我研究極端天氣事件

and how human activities are influencing them.

以及人類活動如何影響它們。

My name is Benjamin Cook, and I'm a climate scientist

我的名字是本傑明-庫克，我是一名氣候科學家

at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

在美國宇航局戈達德空間研究所。

I've been working there for about 14 years now.

我已經在那裡工作了大約14年了。

And I study how droughts are changing

我研究乾旱是如何變化的

with global warming and climate change.

與全球變暖和氣候變化。

And today we'll be debunking myths about global warming.

而今天我們將揭穿關於全球變暖的神話。

Cook: Myths from pop culture.

庫克。來自流行文化的神話。

Oh, boy, I'm glad you got this one, Deepti.

哦，孩子，我很高興你得到這個，Deepti。

"The sun is causing global warming."

"太陽導致全球變暖"。

Changes in the amount of energy we get from the sun

我們從太陽獲得的能量的變化

do affect our climate.

確實影響我們的氣候。

But over the last 150 years, we know that

但在過去的150年裡，我們知道

because the amount of energy we're getting from the sun

因為我們從太陽獲得的能源量

has not changed significantly over this period.

在這一時期，沒有明顯的變化。

Satellites have been recording

衛星一直在記錄

the amount of solar radiation that our planet receives.

我們的星球所接受的太陽輻射量。

I think Ben has a graph that shows that.

我想本有一個圖表顯示了這一點。

Cook: And what we're looking at here on the yellow

庫克。而我們在這裡看到的是黃色的

is the amount of energy that's coming from the sun,

是指來自太陽的能量的數量。

and red is global temperatures.

和紅色是全球溫度。

It's pretty clear that the amount of energy

很明顯，能量的數量

we're getting from the sun has been more or less flat

我們從太陽那裡得到的數據或多或少是平的

for the last several decades,

在過去的幾十年裡。

even as temperatures continue to go up and up.

即使氣溫繼續上升，也是如此。

Singh: "Scientists don't agree

辛格："科學家們並不同意

on what causes climate change."

關於什麼原因導致氣候變化"。

100% of the climate scientists on this Skype call agree.

在這個Skype電話中，100%的氣候科學家都同意。

If you review the published literature

如果你回顧已發表的文獻

in reputable journals by reputable scientists,

由著名的科學家在著名的期刊上發表。

all those papers agree

所有這些文件都同意

that climate change is caused by human activities.

氣候變化是由人類活動造成的。

There's really no other explanation that fits the data.

真的沒有其他符合數據的解釋。

We've looked at the sun.

我們已經看了太陽。

We've looked at just natural variations

我們只看了自然變化

in circulation in the ocean, in the atmosphere.

在海洋和大氣的循環中。

We've looked at volcanoes.

我們已經看了火山。

We've looked at changes in ecosystems.

我們已經研究了生態系統的變化。

And at the end of the day, the only thing

而在一天結束的時候，唯一的事情是

that can adequately explain the degree of warming

可以充分解釋變暖的程度。

that we've seen over the last 150 years

我們在過去150年裡看到的

is human greenhouse gas emissions,

是人類的溫室氣體排放。

primarily through the burning of fossil fuels.

主要通過燃燒化石燃料。

There's a real clear incentive

有一個真正明確的激勵措施

for people to find some other explanation.

為人們找到一些其他的解釋。

Nobody can come up with

沒有人能夠想出

even a plausible alternative hypothesis.

甚至是一個可信的替代假說。

"Global warming is caused by cow farts."

"全球變暖是由牛屁引起的。"

It's not by their farts, but it's by belching.

這不是靠他們的屁，而是靠打嗝。

Agriculture is a pretty substantial contributor

農業是一個相當大的貢獻者

to greenhouse gas emissions, close to 25%.

對溫室氣體排放的影響，接近25%。

It's not the whole 25%, but it's a good chunk.

這不是全部的25%，但也是很大的一部分。

It's important to note, too, that even the cow burps

還需要注意的是，即使是牛打嗝也是如此

that are producing this methane is not natural.

產生這種沼氣的人不是自然人。

It's all part of a kind of human agricultural system.

這都是一種人類農業系統的一部分。

So blaming it all on cows

所以把這一切歸咎於牛

doesn't take people off the hook.

並不意味著人們就能擺脫困境。

"Plants and animals will adapt."

"植物和動物會適應"。

So, we know that in the past,

所以，我們知道，在過去。

plants and animals have adapted to climate change,

植物和動物已經適應了氣候變化。

but there's a few fundamental different things now

但現在有一些基本不同的東西

that are very likely to make it quite difficult.

這很可能使它變得相當困難。

In addition, it's not just climate change

此外，這不僅僅是氣候變化的問題

that's threatening plants and animals,

威脅著植物和動物。

it's habitat fragmentation,

它是棲息地碎片化。

it's pollution,

它是汙染。

it's a variety of other environmental stressors.

是其他各種環境壓力因素。

And so once you kind of put climate change

是以，一旦你把氣候變化

on top of pollution, on top of habitat loss,

在汙染的基礎上，在棲息地喪失的基礎上。

then it becomes much, much more difficult.

那麼它就會變得非常、非常困難。

And just to add to that,

而且，只是為了補充這一點。

I think the extinction rate of species is much higher

我認為物種的滅絕率要高得多

than the natural extinction rate.

比自然滅絕率高。

And it's partly driven by

而它的部分驅動因素是

the processes that Ben just mentioned.

本剛才提到的過程。

Cook: Myths from social media.

庫克。來自社交媒體的迷思。

"Global warming is natural."

"全球變暖是自然現象"。

So, we know in the past that climate can change

是以，我們在過去知道，氣候可以改變

really dramatically from natural causes.

真正戲劇性的是自然原因。

The climate during the time of the dinosaurs

恐龍時代的氣候

is very different from the climate

是非常不同的氣候

during the time of the last ice age.

在最後一個冰河時代的時候。

But the changes that we're seeing right now

但我們現在看到的變化是

for the most part are not natural.

在大多數情況下是不自然的。

The warming that we're seeing is very likely

我們看到的升溫很可能是

the fastest warming we've seen

我們所見過的最快的變暖

anytime in the last several thousand years.

在過去的幾千年裡，任何時候都是如此。

It coincides directly with the industrial revolution

它與工業革命直接吻合

and the burning of fossil fuels

和化石燃料的燃燒

and widespread deforestation.

和廣泛的森林砍伐。

You can look at almost any natural cause,

你可以看一下幾乎所有的自然原因。

and none of them are sufficient to explain

而這些都不足以解釋

the warming that we've seen in recent decades.

我們在最近幾十年裡看到的變暖。

"Carbon dioxide is the problem."

"二氧化碳是問題所在"。

So, CO2 isn't the problem.

所以，二氧化碳並不是問題所在。

It's the increase in the concentration of CO2

是二氧化碳濃度的增加

in the atmosphere that is resulting

在大氣中造成的

in the rapid warming we're seeing

在我們看到的快速變暖中

over the last century, which is the problem.

在過去的一個世紀裡，這就是問題所在。

So, carbon dioxide is one of these gases

是以，二氧化碳是這些氣體中的一種

that we call greenhouse gases,

我們稱之為溫室氣體。

because they're responsible for the greenhouse effect,

因為它們要對溫室效應負責。

which basically helps trap energy on Earth

這基本上有助於捕獲地球上的能量

and make things much, much warmer

並使事情變得更多、更溫暖

than it otherwise would have been.

比起其他情況下，它將會是這樣的。

It's not a big stretch then to observe

那麼，觀察到以下情況也不是什麼大問題了

that if we start increasing CO2 concentrations,

如果我們開始增加二氧化碳的濃度。

we're gonna trap more energy and we're gonna warm up.

我們要困住更多的能量，我們要熱身。

Before the industrial revolution,

在工業革命之前。

CO2 levels were close to, like, 280 parts per million.

二氧化碳水準接近，比如說，百萬分之280。

And now we're at close to 418 parts per million.

而現在我們已經接近百萬分之418的水準。

So that's a pretty large change in the concentration.

是以，這是一個相當大的濃度變化。

And the fact is that pretty much anytime

而事實是，幾乎任何時候

the world was warmer,

世界更溫暖。

CO2 levels in the atmosphere were higher.

大氣中的二氧化碳水準更高。

And anytime the world was cooler,

而無論何時，世界都會變得更酷。

CO2 concentrations were lower.

二氧化碳的濃度較低。

"A few degrees' difference is not a big deal."

"幾度的差異並不是什麼大問題。"

And the way I always like to think about it too

也是我一直喜歡思考的方式

is like your body's temperature.

就像你的體溫。

We're all supposed to be about 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

我們都應該是華氏98.6度左右。

Even one degree or two degrees of warming

即使是1度或2度的升溫

is considered a low-grade fever.

被認為是低級別的發燒。

And if your temperature is three or four degrees warmer,

而如果你的體溫升高三或四度。

then you're seriously sick.

那麼你的病就嚴重了。

So, just to give you a sense,

所以，只是為了給你一個感覺。

the Earth has warmed by about one degree

地球變暖了大約1度

over the last century.

在過去的一個世紀裡。

That one degree is an average temperature around our planet.

這1度是我們星球周圍的平均溫度。

That means some parts of our planet

這意味著我們星球的一些地方

are warming faster than others.

氣候變暖的速度比其他地方快。

I come from India.

我來自印度。

We have a lot of people

我們有很多人

that live below poverty in the country.

在該國生活在貧困線以下的人。

And most of those people, for example,

而這些人中的大多數，比如說。

don't have an air conditioner

沒有空調

to deal with extreme heat events.

以應對極端高溫事件。

So it depends on who we're talking about

是以，這取決於我們在談論的是誰

when we say it's not a big deal,

當我們說這不是一個大問題時。

because there are some people around the planet

因為在地球上有一些人

that have the capacity to adapt or cope

有能力適應或應對的

with these kind of extreme events

在這種極端事件中

and with the warming that we've experienced,

並隨著我們所經歷的變暖。

and then there are billions of people

然後有數十億的人

that do not have the capacity to cope

不具備應對能力的

with even small changes.

即使是微小的變化。

Myths that we, climate scientists, hear the most.

我們這些氣候科學家聽到最多的神話。

"Global warming will destroy the planet by 2030."

"全球變暖將在2030年摧毀地球"。

Just like there's kind of climate deniers

就像有一種否認氣候的人一樣

who don't know what they're talking about,

誰也不知道他們在說什麼。

there's climate doomists

有氣候末日論者

who also don't know what they're talking about.

他們也不知道自己在說什麼。

This whole idea of the planet

這整個星球的想法

being destroyed by 2030 comes out of discussion

到2030年被摧毀的問題是討論出來的

about, how much time do we have

關於，我們有多少時間

to keep global warming under two degrees?

將全球變暖控制在兩度以內？

And so it's very likely that we need to

是以，我們很可能需要

kind of get emissions under control by 2030

到2030年控制住排放的那種

to keep it under two degrees.

以使其保持在兩度以下。

It doesn't mean that the world is going to explode

這並不意味著世界要爆炸了

or we're all going to be consigned

否則我們都將被拋棄

to a fiery "Mad Max" kind of hellscape.

一個火熱的 "瘋狂的麥克斯 "式的地獄景象。

It just means that it'll be warmer

這只是意味著它將變得更溫暖

than we maybe wanted it to be.

比我們也許希望的要好。

When they say it's gonna destroy the planet,

當他們說這是要摧毀地球的時候。

well, the planet's not going to blow up.

嗯，地球不會爆炸。

But it does mean that the way of life

但這確實意味著，生活的方式

and the livelihoods

和生計

and the things people depend on

和人們所依賴的東西

are going to be affected.

將會受到影響。

There are already people who have been displaced

已經有一些人流離失所了

because of sea-level rise,

因為海平面上升。

people that are experiencing

正在經歷的人

life-threatening heat conditions.

威脅生命的高溫條件。

The impacts of climate change

氣候變化的影響

are not going to be equally felt.

是不會有同樣的感受。

These kind of blanket statements

這種一概而論的說法

are very, very dismissive.

是非常，非常不屑的。

And I think they can take attention

而且我認為他們可以注意到

away from the people who are likely to be

遠離那些有可能成為的人

most vulnerable to climate change.

最容易受到氣候變化的影響。

It's not really helpful to put a date on it.

在上面寫上日期其實沒有什麼幫助。

I think we just need to know that

我想我們只需要知道

delaying action on climate change

拖延應對氣候變化的行動

is going to just cost more to society.

將會給社會帶來更多的損失。

Cook: "Global warming is China's fault."

庫克："全球變暖是中國的錯。"

So, to address that myth,

是以，為了解決這個神話。

I think there's one important fact we need to understand.

我認為有一個重要的事實我們需要了解。

When CO2 is emitted,

當二氧化碳被排放出來時。

it can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds,

它可以在大氣中停留數百年。

if not thousands of years.

如果不是幾千年的話。

The CO2 concentrations we're seeing today

我們今天看到的二氧化碳濃度

are a consequence of emissions that have happened

是已經發生的排放的結果

over a much longer period, over the last century.

在一個更長的時期內，在上個世紀。

And most of those emissions are associated

而這些排放物中的大部分都與

with the industrial revolution

隨著工業革命的發展

and development of countries like the US

和發展的國家，如美國

and industrialized nations in Europe.

和歐洲的工業化國家。

If we look at emissions this year specifically,

如果我們具體看一下今年的排放量。

sure, the emissions from China

當然，中國的排放量

are close to what the emissions from the US are.

接近於美國的排放量。

But those emissions are being used

但這些排放物正在被使用

to produce products and goods

生產產品和貨物

that are being used in other parts of the world.

在世界其他地區正在使用的。

So I don't think it's fair to say

所以我認為說這是不公平的

that China's responsible

中國負責任的

when we're all benefiting from the products

當我們都從產品中受益的時候

that are produced there.

在那裡生產的。

I think even today, it's worth thinking

我認為即使在今天，也值得思考

not just about how much is a country emitting,

不僅僅是一個國家的排放量有多少。

but how much are they emitting per person?

但他們每人的排放量是多少？

And I have another visual aid here.

我這裡還有一個視覺輔助工具。

You can pretty clearly see

你可以很清楚地看到

the highest-intensity emitters

最高強度的發射器

are places like Australia,

是像澳洲這樣的地方。

the US, Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia.

美國、加拿大、俄羅斯、沙特阿拉伯。

China isn't even in the top 10.

中國甚至沒有進入前10名。

It's also a complicated problem

這也是一個複雜的問題

because the well-being of people

因為人民的福祉

is tied to their consumption of energy.

是與他們的能源消耗相聯繫的。

So as long as we're doing that

是以，只要我們在做這個

in a sustainable, cleaner way,

以一種可持續的、更清潔的方式。

I think we all have to benefit from it.

我認為我們都要從中受益。

"Renewable energy is too expensive to be realistic."

"可再生能源太貴了，不現實"。

Renewable energy is getting cheaper all the time,

可再生能源一直在變得更便宜。

even faster than we expected.

甚至比我們預期的還要快。

And there's a lot of places

而且有很多地方

where it actually can outcompete some fossil fuel sources.