The Ukrainian Defense Ministry says the offensive was in its most active phase, Moscow said it would continue until all of its objectives had been met.

烏克蘭國防部表示，攻勢處於最活躍的階段，莫斯科方面表示，攻勢將持續到所有目標實現。

The city of seven Donetsk is almost encircled by Russian forces.

頓涅茨克七市幾乎被俄羅斯軍隊包圍。

Neighboring towns and villages are being heavily shelled as well.

鄰近的城鎮和村莊也遭到了猛烈的炮擊。

Let's take you live to Vienna in Austria were joined by Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow on the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London and professor at the High School of Economics in Moscow.

讓我們帶您到奧地利維也納進行現場直播，倫敦查塔姆研究所俄羅斯和歐亞大陸項目高級研究員、莫斯科高等經濟學院教授尼古拉-彼得羅夫也加入了我們的行列。

Good to have you with us.

很高興你能加入我們。

For your perspective, Nicolai, are we in a new phase of the war?

就你的觀點而言，尼古拉，我們是否處於戰爭的新階段？

I think that Russian military plan did change and now we're switching to the war of attrition uh, position in war when uh Russian leadership is waiting for the negative consequences of the war directly being failed by Ukrainians in order to change their public mind and make it easier to make any concessions.

我認為俄羅斯的軍事計劃確實發生了變化，現在我們轉入了消耗戰呃，在戰爭中的立場，呃俄羅斯領導層正在等待戰爭直接被烏克蘭人失敗的負面後果，以改變他們的公眾心態，使之更容易做出任何讓步。

But having said for weeks that the Russians were on the back foot, does it seem that they now definitely have the upper hand in Donbas?

但在數週前就說過俄羅斯人處於劣勢，現在看來，他們在頓巴斯肯定佔了上風嗎？

I think that they are closer to the task proclaimed to restore borders of self proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk Republics to administrative borders of proper Ukrainian regions.

我認為，他們更接近於宣佈的任務，即把自稱的頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克共和國的邊界恢復到烏克蘭適當地區的行政邊界。

But what I think is even more important is the fact that Russian troops now do control the coast of the sea of Azov and part of the coast of the Black Sea cutting off Ukraine from the sea.

但我認為更重要的是，俄羅斯軍隊現在確實控制了亞速海的海岸和黑海的部分海岸，切斷了烏克蘭與海洋的聯繫。

How are Ukrainians in the east, getting their weapons?

東部的烏克蘭人，是如何獲得他們的武器的？

How are the supply lines?

補給線情況如何？

Well, I think it works.

嗯，我認為這很有效。

It works well.

它的效果很好。

But one should not wait for any immediate changes.

但人們不應等待任何直接的變化。

And if Russian troops will switch to defensive in order to keep those territories which are already under their control, I think it will be very complicated for the Ukrainian army to take these territories back.

如果俄羅斯軍隊將轉為防守，以保持那些已經在他們控制下的領土，我認為烏克蘭軍隊要奪回這些領土將會非常複雜。

Because what are the tactics of the Russians in Donbas?

因為俄羅斯人在頓巴斯的戰術是什麼？

Is it the sort of usual playbook of encircling towns and then bombarding them?

是那種包圍城鎮，然後轟炸的慣用手法嗎？

Well, I think the situation in Donbas does show how complicated it is to get control over territories if the other side is well prepared for the defense so far.

好吧，我認為頓巴斯的情況確實表明，如果對方到目前為止已經做好了防禦的準備，那麼要獲得對領土的控制是多麼複雜。

Russian army is trying to get all territories which the parts of Daniel's can't Lugansk regions of Ukraine.

俄羅斯軍隊正試圖獲得所有領土，其中丹尼爾的部分不能烏克蘭的盧甘斯克地區。

But even this task is hardly possible.

但即使是這項任務也很難實現。

Do you believe that ultimately President Zelensky and Ukraine will have to give up part of all of the Donbass region?

你是否認為，最終澤倫斯基總統和烏克蘭將不得不放棄頓巴斯地區的一部分或全部？

I'm afraid that the well gaining back control over all territories of Ukraine will take a lot of time and it's hardly probable that it will happen in a short while.

我擔心，重新獲得對烏克蘭所有領土的控制權需要很多時間，而且幾乎不可能在短時間內發生。

That's why I think that ceasefire which can help to stop this huge, cruel and very painful war will be achieved and later, perhaps not even this year, but later, Ukraine will manage to restore its territorial integrity.

這就是為什麼我認為，能夠幫助停止這場巨大、殘酷和非常痛苦的戰爭的停火將會實現，以後，也許甚至不是今年，但以後，烏克蘭將設法恢復其領土完整。

Nikolai Petrov, thank you for joining us with your thoughts, your analysis from Vienna.

尼古拉-彼得羅夫，感謝你加入我們，提供你的想法，你在維也納的分析。