I don't like looking back at things I've made in the past.

我不喜歡回頭看我過去做的東西。

But in the last couple of weeks, I've some a few emails saying:

但在過去的幾周裡，我有一些電子郵件說。

Tom, ten years ago, you tried to predict 2022,

湯姆，十年前，你試圖預測2022年。

or at least some of the technology and online world of 2022.

或者至少是2022年的一些技術和網絡世界。

You should look back and see if you were right.

你應該回顧一下，看看你是否正確。

So I've come back to the same place that I gave that talk.

所以我又回到了我那次演講的地方。

Back in summer 2012 this was a warm, friendly temporary festival site

早在2012年夏天，這是一個溫暖、友好的臨時節日場地

with a load of people on it

上面有很多人

and now it's a cold, run-down, deserted bit of scrubland

而現在它是一片寒冷、破舊、荒蕪的灌木叢。

next to a motorway, but it's the same place.

在高速公路旁邊，但這是同一個地方。

I did originally try to film this without having looked back at the talk,

我最初確實是在沒有回頭看談話的情況下嘗試拍攝的。

to get my actual genuine reaction,

以獲得我實際的真實反應。

and it was a terrible video, I'm bad at improvising

這是個糟糕的視頻，我不擅長即興創作。

and I thought of a dozen more things I wanted to say right afterwards,

之後我又想到了一打我想說的話。

so now I've had some time to think... let's go back ten years,

所以現在我有一些時間來思考......讓我們回到十年前。

see what I got right, see what I got wrong,

看看我做對了什麼，看看我做錯了什麼。

and see if I can predict ten years from now.

並看看我是否能預測十年後的情況。

- I've got a story for you.

- 我有一個故事給你。

It's set in a future. Not necessarily the future,

它設定在一個未來。不一定是未來。

I'm not saying this is what will happen.

我並不是說這就是將要發生的事情。

- I think that's the first time I ever used that phrase.

- 我想這是我第一次使用這句話。

It's a get-out-of-jail-free card,

這是一張 "免罪牌"。

a way to hedge my bets and say I'm probably going to wrong.

一種對沖的方式，說我可能會錯。

I use it a lot when I write speculative fiction.

我在寫推理小說時經常使用它。

- April 2022. Ten years' time.

- 2022年4月。十年後的今天。

First person we're going to meet there is Jason Stewart.

我們在那裡要見到的第一個人是傑森-斯圖爾特。

He's the MP for Tooting and Streatham. He is the Minister for Social Development.

他是Tooting和Streatham的議員。他是社會發展部長。

Considered kind of a hotshot among his party

被認為是他的黨派中的一個熱點人物

after winning his seat in 2020 General Election

在2020年大選中贏得自己的席位後

in a very hard-fought contest.

在一場非常艱苦的比賽中。

- All the political guesses there were completely wrong, but then,

- 那裡所有的政治猜測都是完全錯誤的，但後來。

when has anyone been even able to predict politics?

什麼時候有人能夠預測政治了？

Also, the faces in this talk weren't originally blurred,

另外，這次談話中的人臉原來並不是模糊的。

I've used YouTube's tools to go back and blur them in the original as well,

我也用YouTube的工具回去把它們在原作中模糊化。

because there's a big difference between asking a friend

因為問一個朋友有很大的區別

"hey, can I borrow your headshot for this talk I'm just giving to a few people"

"嘿，我可以借你的頭像來做我要給幾個人的演講嗎？

and "can I show that to... however many people will watch this new video".

和 "我可以向......多少人展示這個新視頻嗎"。

I've got a duty of care there.

我在那裡有照顧的義務。

- This is the 2022 iPhone. Looks about the same,

- 這是2022年的iPhone。看起來大致相同。

the laws of physics dictate you still need a battery brick.

物理定律決定了你仍然需要一塊電池磚。

- That's a hit. It's a very easy hit,

- 這是個打擊。這是一個非常容易的打擊。

"the borders of phone screens are going to get smaller"

"手機螢幕的邊框會越來越小"

is not exactly a difficult prediction to make.

並不完全是一個困難的預測。

And by sheer luck, I used a black background on the phone,

而且由於運氣好，我在手機上使用了黑色背景。

so you can't see if there's a notch or not at the top.

所以你無法看到頂部是否有一個缺口。

One subtle thing I got right there as well:

我在那裡也得到了一件微妙的事情。

Apple did change their font.

蘋果確實改變了他們的字體。

Back in 2012, they were using Helvetica,

早在2012年，他們就在使用Helvetica。

I picked the wrong one to change to, they use a custom sans-serif,

我選錯了，他們用的是自定義無襯線字體。

but I did predict the UI was going to change a bit.

但我確實預測到用戶界面會有一些變化。

- But what has changed is  the mobile network speed.

- 但改變的是移動網絡的速度。

5G now blankets the country in hundred-megabit internet access,

5G現在覆蓋了全國的百兆級互聯網接入。

and the data caps are a thing of the past.

和數據上限是過去的事了。

- Again, a fairly easy hit. 4G was just being rolled out in 2012,

- 同樣，一個相當容易的打擊。2012年，4G剛剛被推出。

so taking a guess at 5G in ten years wasn't that hard.

所以猜測一下十年後的5G並不難。

And it actually was a bit pessimistic:

而且實際上是有點悲觀的。

there are parts of the UK where you can get gigabit access on your phone now.

英國有些地方現在可以用手機獲得千兆接入。

Data caps are still a thing on some contracts,

在一些合同中，數據上限仍然是一個東西。

but as far as I know they're not something most people have to think too much about.

但據我所知，它們並不是大多數人需要考慮太多問題的東西。

As you watch this, you've got to remember that in 2012

當你看這個時，你必須記住，在2012年

we were almost exactly half way through the transition to smartphones,

我們在向智能手機過渡的過程中幾乎正好過了一半。

only about 50% of people had moved from calls-and-texts-only to

只有約50%的人從僅有電話和簡訊轉為

what we'd call a modern phone today.

就是我們今天所說的現代電話。

Suddenly, half the population was carrying a camera all the time,

突然間，一半的人一直帶著相機。

half the population could easily cheat on pub quizzes.

一半的人可以輕易地在酒吧測驗中作弊。

Things were changing, and they were changing fast,

事情正在發生變化，而且變化很快。

but we weren't in the smartphone era.

但我們當時還沒有進入智能手機時代。

Social changes hadn't swept in, not yet.

社會變革還沒有席捲而來，還沒有。

2012 me is about to get to the fundamental idea of the talk,

2012年我即將進入談話的基本想法。

and it's based on one of the big ideas that was going around

它是基於一個正在進行中的大想法

among technical people at the time:

在當時的技術人員中。

lifelogging, the quantified self:

生活記錄，量化的自我。

the plausible idea that we going store all our memories online soon.

我們很快就會在網上存儲我們所有的記憶，這是一個合理的想法。

It was mainstream enough that Black Mirror's "Entire History of You" had aired

這已經是主流，《黑鏡》的 "你的整個歷史 "已經播出了。

just a few months earlier,

就在幾個月前。

and now everyone was getting a computer with internet access in their pocket.

而現在每個人的口袋裡都有一臺可以上網的電腦。

2012 was before Google Glass, before the first Narrative Clip,

2012年是在谷歌眼鏡之前，在第一個敘事剪輯之前。

all of which came and went very quickly.

所有這些都來得快去得也快。

It turns out that, so far, people just don't seem to like the idea

事實證明，到目前為止，人們似乎並不喜歡這個想法。

of remembering everything, and storing that data forever with corporations.

記憶一切，並將這些數據永遠儲存在公司。

This talk felt like a warning,

這次談話感覺像是一個警告。

but I didn't know -- no-one knew -- if it a warning that was going to be needed.

但我不知道--沒有人知道--是否需要警告。

- Last year, Apple reused a trademark and introduced iLife.

- 去年，蘋果公司重新使用了一個商標並推出了iLife。

It's quite similar to Your History on Microsoft Nokia phones,

這與微軟諾基亞手機上的 "您的歷史 "很相似。

or Droid Locker on Android.

或Android上的Droid Locker。

They're all descendents of the accountability systems

他們都是問責制度的後裔

that have been used for police officers and care workers for years now.

多年來一直用於警察和護理人員。

- So many misses in there! Apple have since switched to flat design.

- 這裡面有很多失誤!蘋果公司後來改用了扁平化設計。

All the Android services have been rebranded as Google.

所有的安卓服務都被重新命名為谷歌。

And Microsoft Nokia phones!

還有微軟的諾基亞手機!

And the idea of private-contractor body-worn cameras,

還有私人承包商的隨身攜帶的攝影機的想法。

and that all sorts of people all over the public and private sectors

而且所有公共和私營部門的各種人都是如此

would wear them every day as part of their work...

他們每天都會穿上它們，作為他們工作的一部分......

it just hasn't come true. Completely wrong.

它只是沒有成真。完全錯了。

= With iLife, the phone is always recording audio

=使用iLife，手機一直在錄製音頻

and sending it and your  location to a cloud server.

並將其和你的位置發送到雲服務器。

The descendents of Siri then  generate a transcript of it.

然後，Siri的後代就會生成它的文字記錄。

If you're talking to someone else with iLife, it'll give you a text chat log.

如果你用iLife與別人交談，它會給你一個文本聊天記錄。

It's not perfect, but it's close enough.

它並不完美，但已足夠接近。

- Big miss. Companies just haven't developed that.

- 大錯特錯。公司只是還沒有發展到這一步。

People, I think, don't want that?

人們，我想，不希望這樣嗎？

But back then, Siri was a few months old;

但在那時，Siri只有幾個月大。

Amazon's Alexa would come out a couple of years later.

亞馬遜的Alexa會在幾年後問世。

I'm sure any of those companies could have developed that product,

我確信這些公司中的任何一家都可以開發出這種產品。

it's entirely possible these days,

這幾天完全有可能。

it's just that we went a different way.

只是我們走了一條不同的路。

- And if you have the new Apple headset, it's got a couple of cameras embedded in it,

- 如果你有新的蘋果耳機，它有幾個攝像頭嵌入其中。

which are always recording video when they're connected.

當它們被連接時，總是在錄製視頻。

That's uploaded, analysed, and stabilised by the same systems.

這是由同一系統上傳、分析和穩定的。

The cable, incidentally,  still gets tangled in knots 

順便說一句，電纜仍然會被打成結

every time you put it in your bag.

每次你把它放進你的包裡時。

- Another big miss. To be fair to earlier me,

- 又一次大失誤。為了公平起見，早先的我。

I still think wireless headphones are a terrible idea.

我仍然認為無線耳機是一個糟糕的想法。

I cannot understand why anyone uses them.

我無法理解為什麼有人使用它們。

They're expensive, they need recharging, the battery degrades over time,

它們很昂貴，需要充電，電池會隨著時間的推移而退化。

they need a carrying case, they're easy to lose, Bluetooth is still really dodgy ten years later.

他們需要一個手提箱，他們很容易丟失，藍牙在十年後仍然非常不穩定。

I still use wired headsets.

我仍然使用有線耳麥。

Now, in hindsight, wired  camera-buds would probably 

現在，回過頭來看，有線的攝像耳塞可能會

have drained too much battery too quickly,

消耗了太多的電池，太快了。

but I still think there's a path that could have got us there by now.

但我仍然認為有一條道路可以讓我們現在就達到目的。

- Which brings us back to Jason Stewart. Jason is a member of 'Cheshire Boys',

- 這使我們回到了傑森-斯圖爾特。傑森是 "柴郡男孩 "的成員。

the site for old alumni of his public school.

他的公立學校的老校友們的網站。

It runs on Disco, a fairly popular community framework,

它運行在Disco上，這是一個相當流行的社區框架。

that unfortunately has some fairly major security flaws.

不幸的是，它有一些相當大的安全缺陷。

- That's one of the biggest misses in this whole talk. And it's subtle.

- 這是整個談話中最大的失誤之一。而且它很微妙。

It took me a few times watching this to realise just how badly I'd got that wrong.

我看了幾遍才意識到我錯得有多嚴重。

A community of school alumni wouldn't be a web site or forum these days,

現在的學校校友社區不會是一個網站或論壇。

it wouldn't be independently hosted.

它不會是獨立託管的。

There are still some places like that, yes, but depending on demographics

仍然有一些這樣的地方，是的，但取決於人口統計學的情況

that would almost certainly be a Facebook group, 

這幾乎可以肯定是一個Facebook小組。

or a WhatsApp thread, or  a Slack or Discord server.

或WhatsApp線程，或Slack或Discord服務器。

It would be on some centralised service,

這將是在一些集中的服務上。

not a private web server with some off-the-shelf code.

而不是使用一些現成的代碼的私人網絡服務器。

That whole business model, that way of operating,

這整個商業模式，這種運作方式。

was dying at the time and I had not noticed.

當時，我正面臨死亡，而我沒有注意到。

I'm skipping some of the talk here:

我在這裡跳過一些談話。

basically, that Member of  Parliament's password got leaked.

基本上，那個議員的密碼被洩露了。

- His password is 'stewart9',

- 他的密碼是 "Stewart9"。

that's the same password he uses everywhere,

這是他在任何地方使用的相同密碼。

and someone goes "hey!  Let's log into his iCloud!".

有人說 "嘿！讓我們登錄他的iCloud！"。

- Why is any of that on desktop?

- 為什麼這些都在桌面上呢？

2012 was the start of the transition to mobile-first

2012年是向移動優先過渡的開始

and I just didn't see it coming.

而我只是沒有看到它的到來。

All these screenshots should  be vertical, on a phone.

所有這些螢幕截圖應該是垂直的，在手機上。

I must have been imagining people coming home and checking this on their home computer,

我一定是在想象人們回家後在家裡的電腦上查看這個。

instead of getting notifications and using an app on their device.

而不是在他們的設備上獲得通知和使用一個應用程序。

A couple of years later that would be obvious, 

幾年後，這就很明顯了。

everything would start to  be designed mobile-first,

一切都將開始以移動為先設計。

but in 2012, after I'd spent more than a decade

但在2012年，在我花了超過十年的時間

of writing web sites on and for desktop computers,

在臺式電腦上為其編寫網站。

I just missed that entirely.

我只是完全錯過了這一點。

That transition was starting, just starting...

這種過渡正在開始，剛剛開始......

and I hadn't spotted it.

而我卻沒有發現它。

- First thing they see is Apple's handy 'Is This You?' feature.

- 他們首先看到的是蘋果方便的 "這是你嗎 "功能。

Jason Stewart can be seen in a few frames of this walk-by in Shoreditch.

在肖爾迪奇（Shoreditch）的這段路途中，可以看到傑森-斯圖爾特的幾幀照片。

He wasn't recording, but his phone had his location and facial recognition did the rest,

他沒有錄音，但他的手機有他的位置，其餘的由面部識別完成。

and it didn't take too much effort to find out what he was doing there.

而且不費吹灰之力就能知道他在那裡做什麼。

A few minutes later, this poison pen letter arrives in

幾分鐘後，這封毒筆信就送到了

every single political editor and blogger's inbox in the country.

全國每個政治編輯和博主的收件箱裡都有。

The Sun eventually runs with it first,

太陽報》最終首先運行了它。

after all the blogs have made it public knowledge.

在所有的博客都公開了之後。

- Blogging! Blogs were still a big thing in the public consciousness in 2012,

- 博客!2012年，博客在公眾意識中仍然是一件大事。

and I did not see their decline coming.

而我沒有看到他們的衰落。

I didn't see them being mostly-replaced by Twitter.

我沒有看到他們被Twitter大部分取代。

Should I have known? Was it obvious?

我應該知道嗎？這很明顯嗎？

It seems clear in hindsight that the "blogosphere"'s days were numbered,

事後看來，"博客圈 "的日子已經不多了。

but I missed it.

但我錯過了。

About one year after that talk, Google would switch off Google Reader,

在那次談話之後大約一年，谷歌將關閉谷歌閱讀器。

forever gaining a reputation as a company that shuts down old products

作為一個關閉舊產品的公司，永遠贏得了聲譽

instead of maintaining them,

而不是維護它們。

and it was all downhill from there.

從那時起，一切都在走下坡路。

He decides he's going to go on the offence.

他決定自己要去進攻。

He gets up in Parliament and says that

他在議會中站起來說

'our private lives should be private, and we must investigate these hackers'.

'我們的私人生活應該是私密的，我們必須調查這些黑客'。

And he convinces the Met to investigate, which they do by

他說服了倫敦警察局進行調查，他們通過以下方式進行了調查

filing a request with Apple for any lifelogs that mentioned Jason Stewart

向蘋果公司提出申請，要求提供提到傑森-斯圖爾特的任何生活記錄。

in the hours and minutes before the leak.

在洩漏前的幾小時和幾分鐘內。

And Apple agrees, because that argument got settled years ago,

蘋果公司也同意，因為這個爭論多年前就已經解決了。

...after Blackpool.

...在黑池之後。

You can tell something about what a culture is worried about,

你可以看出一種文化所擔心的東西。

or maybe what a particular author is worried about,

或者是某位作者所擔心的問題。

by reading their speculative fiction.

通過閱讀他們的推理小說。

I just finished "The Brief History of the Dead" by Kevin Brockmeier,

我剛剛讀完凱文-布洛克梅爾的《死亡簡史》。

and there are references in there to "terrorist warning beacons"

其中還提到了 "恐怖分子警告信標"。

that everyone's got used to and just ignores,

每個人都已經習慣了，只是忽略了這一點。

and as I read that I thought, "oh, this is a post-9/11 book".

當我讀到這句話時，我想，"哦，這是一本9.11之後的書"。

And it is, it's from 2006. And this talk, in 2012,

它是，它是2006年的。而這次談話，是在2012年。

still very much in the consciousness of people working online that we were

在網上工作的人的意識中，我們仍然是非常重要的。

one media-friendly terrorist attack away from losing what was left of our privacy rights.

在一次對媒體有利的恐怖襲擊之後，我們就會失去所剩無幾的隱私權利。

- Your lifelog will get pulled and searched through by the police.

- 你的生活記錄會被警察調出並搜索一遍。

it's not like you've got anything to hide, right?

它不像你有什麼可隱瞞的，對嗎？

- Maybe we still are. It's just that as far as I can tell from what I read,

- 也許我們仍然是。只是，就我讀到的內容來看。

science fiction in the 2020s is more worried

2020年的科幻小說更令人擔憂

about democratic backsliding, misinformation, and climate apocalypse.

關於民主倒退、錯誤信息和氣候啟示的文章。

So there's one question left.

所以還剩下一個問題。

What about ten years from now?

從現在開始的十年呢？

What about 2032?

2032年呢？

I'm not immersed in web development and technology any more,

我不再沉浸在網絡開發和技術中了。

I don't code very often, I work on video now.

我不經常編碼，我現在從事視頻工作。

So what can I predict? Well, here's the guess.

那麼我可以預測什麼呢？嗯，這裡有一個猜測。

Not the future, just a future.

不是未來，只是一個未來。

I think short-form video is going to do to YouTube

我認為短視頻將在YouTube上大行其道

what Twitter did to blogs.

推特對博客所做的一切。

People will still be making  long-form video content,

人們仍然會製作長格式的視頻內容。

it will still get linked to and watched...

它仍然會被鏈接到並被觀看...

but short-form is so much simpler that there will be so much more of it.

但短篇小說是如此的簡單，以至於會有如此多的短篇小說。

A tweet takes ten seconds to write, requires no proofreading or punctuation,

一條推特只需十秒鐘就能寫完，不需要校對或標點符號。

and can be amplified to the world in minutes.

並能在幾分鐘內被放大到全世界。

A blog post takes minutes or hours to write, needs spell-checking and formatting,

一篇博文需要幾分鐘或幾小時來寫，需要拼寫檢查和格式化。

and takes time to be discovered.

並需要時間才能被發現。

It's not a perfect analogy, but I have a sinking feeling

這不是一個完美的比喻，但我有一種沉甸甸的感覺

that short-form video is going to win just through sheer weight of numbers,

短視頻將通過純粹的數量優勢獲勝。