The latest figures show that price increases for energy groceries and consumer products in many parts of the world are barely backing down due in part to the higher transportation costs created by expensive oil.

最新的數據顯示，世界上許多地方的能源雜貨和消費品的價格上漲幾乎沒有退路，部分原因是昂貴的石油造成的運輸成本提高。

As if all that weren't bad enough.

彷彿所有這些還不夠糟糕。

Russia's actions in Ukraine have the potential to make things worse.

俄羅斯在烏克蘭的行動有可能使事情變得更糟。

The EU and G-7 formally committing themselves this week to phasing out Russian oil.

歐盟和七國集團本週正式承諾逐步淘汰俄羅斯石油。

But a rapid embargo of Russian oil would potentially send prices further up at a time when ordinary families are already feeling the pinch.

但是，在普通家庭已經感受到壓力的時候，迅速禁運俄羅斯石油將有可能使價格進一步上漲。

Just take a listen to some of the comments we heard at a gas station here in Berlin.

請聽一聽我們在柏林的一個加油站聽到的一些評論。

What can you say about it?

你能說什麼呢？

The prices are crazy and I don't believe that this just has to do with the war in Ukraine or something like that.

價格很瘋狂，我不相信這只是與烏克蘭的戰爭或類似的事情有關。

They're just trying to make money.

他們只是想賺錢。

It's just crazy.

這實在是太瘋狂了。

There's never been anything like this before.

以前從未有過這樣的事情。

I've been in Germany for 30 years and have never paid prices like this.

我在德國呆了30年，從來沒有支付過這樣的價格。

It's really extreme.

這真的很極端。

It's not so bad for me because I drive a small scooter, but I basically just leave my car at home.

對我來說，這還不算太糟，因為我開的是一輛小滑板車，但我基本上只是把車留在家裡。

I bought my scooter extra because of this to get around the city.

因為這個原因，我額外買了我的滑板車，以便在城市周圍行駛。

If they don't want to lower the gas prices, then they should lower the value added tax.

如果他們不想降低汽油價格，那麼他們應該降低增值稅。

That's what I think.

這就是我的想法。

How can a normal person afford to drive a car, it's becoming a luxury.

一個正常人怎麼可能開得起車，它已經成為一種奢侈品。

Alright.

好吧。

Some voices, they're from a gas station here in Berlin and here in studio with me is my colleague DW business cassandra, cassandra.

一些聲音，他們來自柏林這裡的一個加油站，在演播室裡和我一起的是我的同事DW商業卡桑德拉，卡桑德拉。

Welcome.

歡迎。

Um, why does oil have such an outsized influence on living costs beyond just gasoline?

嗯，為什麼石油對生活成本有如此大的影響，而不僅僅是汽油？

There's pretty much if any part of your supply chain involves a combustion engine or plastic oil is directly connected to it.

有相當多，如果你的供應鏈的任何部分涉及內燃機或塑膠油是直接連接到它。

On top of that, A lot of economies right now are coming out of the pandemic.

除此之外，現在很多經濟體正在走出大流行的陰影。

If you look at the price of oil, there is a pretty nice correlation between when vaccines started to roll out, economy started to reopen and oil started to increase.

如果你看一下石油價格，在疫苗開始推出、經濟開始重新開放和石油開始上漲之間有一個相當好的相關性。

That really accelerated in the last six months or so.

這在過去六個月左右的時間裡真的加速了。

The second, the third or fourth quarter of 2021 it's accelerating even more.

第二，2021年的第三或第四季度，它的速度會更快。

So there was already an increase in demand for oil based products, including gasoline.

是以，對包括汽油在內的油基產品的需求已經有了增加。

And then the invasion of Ukraine happened.

然後就發生了對烏克蘭的入侵。

The West slapped a bunch of sanctions on Russia.

西方對俄羅斯實施了一堆制裁。

And we're at this point now where demand is going up, but supply is starting to shrink And anyone with even a surface level understanding of economics knows that that means higher prices.

而我們現在正處於這樣一個階段，需求在上升，但供應開始萎縮，任何對經濟學有表面認識的人都知道這意味著價格上漲。

Then should we assume that the oil sanctions that are now being announced on Russia due to come into full effect at the end of this year?

那麼我們是否應該認為，現在宣佈的對俄羅斯的石油制裁由於在今年年底全面生效？

Will that make prices go up even higher.

這是否會使價格漲得更高。

The signs right now are a little bit mixed.

現在的跡象有點複雜。

But as I'm reading it, it seems fairly probable we've gotten some mixed messages so far.

但是，在我閱讀的過程中，到目前為止，我們似乎相當有可能得到了一些混合的資訊。

Eu Commission President Ursula von der Lion tried to signal that the six month ramp that they've got until crude oil, the crude oil embargo begins.

歐盟委員會主席烏蘇拉-馮德萊恩試圖發出信號，在原油禁運開始之前，他們有六個月的時間。

That that would give people time the different nations and their partners to find some alternative routes.

這將給人們時間，不同的國家和他們的夥伴找到一些替代路線。

But the german economy minister was not so optimistic.

但德國經濟部長卻不那麼樂觀。

He said that there could be a shock.

他說，可能會有衝擊。

There's a possibility of supply shortages coming and that this could be, there could be frankly, a real impact.

有可能會出現供應短缺，這可能是，坦率地說，可能會有真正的影響。

That also german industry trade group B.

這也是德國工業貿易集團B。

D.

D.

I told Bloomberg that replacing Russian oil that that's not easy.

我告訴彭博社，取代俄羅斯石油那是不容易的。

You can't just switch the tracks, so to speak, there's logistics involved and that would increase costs and that they expect prices are going to increase as well.

你不能只是切換軌道，可以這麼說，這涉及到物流，這將增加成本，他們預計價格也會增加。

So the question here is how quick can these different countries get their backup plans in place?

是以，這裡的問題是，這些不同的國家能以多快的速度將其備份計劃落實到位？

If they do that over the course of the six months, there could be less of an impact, more muted impact.

如果他們在6個月的時間裡做到這一點，可能會有較小的影響，更柔和的影響。

But they can't get their ducks in a row in time.

但他們不能及時地把自己的事情辦好。

There could be a bigger impact and china right now is a little bit of a sleeping bear, so to speak.

可能會有更大的影響，而中國現在有點像一隻沉睡的熊，可以這樣說。

They they've been experiencing several lockdowns right now.

他們他們現在已經經歷了幾次封鎖。

So there's less demand there.

所以那裡的需求較少。

But if they kind of shake that off come out of hibernation, so that's even more pressure.

但是，如果他們擺脫了這種情況，從冬眠中走出來，那就更有壓力了。

Exactly.

正是如此。

And that could increase prices even faster at the same time, there are lots of other countries that are sitting on plenty of oil outside of Russia.

同時，這可能會使價格上漲得更快，在俄羅斯之外，還有很多其他國家正坐擁大量石油。

Right?

對嗎？

When we think about the oil cartel.

當我們想到石油卡特爾的時候。

Opec which really does dictate prices in production, why can't they just bring out more oil?

歐佩克確實在生產中支配著價格，為什麼他們就不能拿出更多的石油？

So Opec had a meeting earlier this month but from reports that we're hearing about it it was very short apparently just 15 minutes and there was no talk of the Russian invasion of Ukraine at all.

是以，歐佩克本月早些時候舉行了一次會議，但從我們聽到的報告來看，會議非常簡短，顯然只有15分鐘，而且根本沒有談到俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的問題。

So when we're thinking about Opec really the message from them, even if it's a little bit behind the scenes seems to be this isn't our problem.

是以，當我們考慮歐佩克的時候，他們發出的資訊，即使是在幕後的一點，似乎也是這不是我們的問題。

They don't view this as a fundamental supply issue that they need to solve.

他們不認為這是一個他們需要解決的基本供應問題。

And don't forget not Opec but Opec plus the kind of wider group there that includes Russia.

別忘了不是歐佩克，而是歐佩克加上包括俄羅斯在內的更廣泛的集團。

So that could be a big reason that we're not really hearing them addresses exactly.

是以，這可能是我們沒有真正聽到他們確切地址的一個重要原因。

So they had this meeting earlier this month They did announce a modest increase in barrels per day production 432,000 but that's really more in line with their plan to start to unwind their pandemic curbs.

是以，他們在本月早些時候舉行了這次會議。他們確實宣佈小幅增加日產量43.2萬桶，但這確實更符合他們開始解除對大流行病遏制的計劃。

It's not really reaching out a helping hand to Europe.

這並不是真正向歐洲伸出援助之手。

So it's not in response to the war.

所以這不是為了應對戰爭。

Alright.

好吧。

Dw businesses Cassandra sent my colleague thank you very much.

Dw企業卡桑德拉給我的同事送來了非常多的感謝。

Well earlier this week the U.

那麼本週早些時候，美國。

S revealed its latest inflation figures which dipped slightly in april but the overall trend of climbing prices showed little sign of retreat.

美國公佈的最新通脹數據顯示，4月份的通脹率略有下降，但價格攀升的總體趨勢沒有顯示出任何退縮的跡象。

The annual rate of 8.3% for April is just slightly lower than the month before, which itself represented a decades long high and yet it's the first dip in price growth over the last eight months.

4月份8.3%的年率僅略低於前一個月，而前一個月本身就代表了幾十年來的高點，然而這卻是過去八個月中價格增長的第一次下滑。

Well despite that seemingly good news, the high rate of inflation is putting plenty of pressure on average american families with gasoline prices at record highs.

儘管這似乎是個好消息，但高通脹率給普通美國家庭帶來了很大的壓力，汽油價格達到歷史最高水準。

This month, us President biden described inflation as the number one threat to the U.

本月，美國總統拜登將通貨膨脹描述為對美國的頭號威脅。

S.

S.

Economy saying his administration is working hard on solutions.

經濟說他的政府正在努力尋找解決方案。

That's a good online is easy, easy in these bottlenecks and making our supply chains more secure is a major focus of my economic strategy.

這是一個很好的在線是容易的，容易在這些瓶頸，使我們的供應鏈更安全是我的經濟戰略的一個主要焦點。

So things move more quickly prices go down, not up, you know, some parts of my plan, I've been able to get done on my own.

是以，事情進展更快價格下降，而不是上升，你知道，我計劃的一些部分，我已經能夠自己完成。

I mean just without congressional approval, some parts are being held up by congress.

我的意思是，只是沒有國會準許，有些部分被國會擱置了。

All of my plan is focused on lowering costs for the average family in America to give them just a little bit of premium.

我所有的計劃都集中在降低美國普通家庭的成本，讓他們有一點點的溢價。

We asked our financial correspondent in new york James Sweeney why the U.

我們問我們在紐約的金融記者James Sweeney，為什麼美國會這樣做。

S.

S.

Can't just pump more oil to bring prices down.

不能只是抽更多的石油來降低價格。

Take a listen to what he said, americans everywhere are complaining about rising prices, especially gasoline prices that are pushing americans already living paycheck to paycheck towards the break.

聽聽他說的，各地的美國人都在抱怨物價上漲，尤其是汽油價格，它正把已經靠工資生活的美國人推向崩潰。

Now many maybe blaming higher prices on supply chain problems which makes a lot of sense when everything is more expensive.

現在，許多人可能將價格上漲歸咎於供應鏈問題，當所有東西都更貴時，這很有意義。

But it's actually the price of war that's been driving inflation, Inflation is currently at 8.3% for April still at a level not seen in more than four decades.

但實際上是戰爭的代價推動了通貨膨脹。目前4月份的通貨膨脹率為8.3%，仍然處於40多年來未見的水準。

And when broken down oil prices are what's accounted for.

而當細分後的油價就是所佔的比例。

A majority of the increase.

增長的大部分。

The conflict in Ukraine for starters doesn't help as there's a lot more oil demand now that most of Europe is not buying Russian oil and there's refining issues turning crude into oil.

首先，烏克蘭的衝突無濟於事，因為現在歐洲大部分地區都不買俄羅斯的石油了，石油需求量大增，而且將原油變成石油也有問題。

Well actually turning crude oil into gasoline and getting it into your local station requires a number of steps each with its own cost.

實際上，將原油轉化為汽油並將其輸送到當地的加油站需要若干步驟，每個步驟都有自己的成本。

The refining typically accounts for around 18% of the per gallon price according to the Ap I but that percentage can climb quickly.

根據Ap I的說法，煉油通常佔每加侖價格的18%左右，但這個比例可以迅速攀升。

Many refineries on the Gulf coast and can be flooded or otherwise damaged during hurricane season and forced offline which can cause prices to spike.

在颶風季節，墨西哥灣沿岸的許多煉油廠可能被淹沒或受到其他破壞，被迫停產，這可能導致價格飆升。

There's also less space to refine that way.

這樣一來，也有更少的空間可以精煉。

By the way, hurricane season begins in June and runs through November.

順便說一下，颶風季節從六月開始，一直持續到十一月。

It's coming up.

就要來了。

And do we even need to discuss gasoline prices, which this week alone continues to set records on an almost daily basis with refining and supply and demand issues and per gallon taxes.

而我們是否需要討論汽油價格，僅在本週，由於煉油和供需問題以及每加侖的稅收，汽油價格幾乎每天都在繼續創造記錄。

These reasons alone are enough to answer why the US just can't pump itself out of trouble.

僅僅這些原因就足以回答為什麼美國就是不能自己抽身而出。

Alright, our financial correspondent James Sweeney there and with me now is Karen Pittle she's director of Germany's fo center for energy.

好的，我們的財經記者James Sweeney在那裡，現在和我一起的是Karen Pittle，她是德國能源中心的主任。

Climate and resources in Munich.

慕尼黑的氣候和資源。

Karen, thank you for joining us.

凱倫，感謝你加入我們。

What we've been hearing so far, Opec isn't producing more, the US isn't pumping more and we're about to see this oil band go into place over the following six months I'd say where is all of this leading us in terms of prices, Can we say that with with any certainty?

到目前為止，我們所聽到的，歐佩克沒有生產更多，美國沒有抽出更多，我們即將看到這個石油帶在接下來的6個月裡生效，我想說的是，在價格方面，所有這些將引導我們，我們能肯定地說嗎？

No, basically we can't, I mean there's a number of issues like you said Opec the US and how much is produced.

不，基本上我們不能，我的意思是有一些問題，就像你說的歐佩克、美國和生產多少。

But then there's also the question um in the remaining time until the embargo, how much can actually Russia also sell elsewhere?

但還有一個問題，即在禁運前的剩餘時間裡，實際上俄羅斯還能在其他地方銷售多少？

Because that frees up other amounts.

因為這樣可以騰出其他金額。

Now the um estimation is that Russia won't be able to sell everything instead of pipeline via ship.

現在的估計是，俄羅斯將無法通過船舶代替管道銷售所有的東西。

But the more it sells, the less the supply situation escalates and the lower the price increase will be also at the same time, of course if we are going towards a global recession or at least a dampening of growth, then that would also mean less demand.

但是，它賣得越多，供應情況就越少，價格漲幅也會越低，同時，如果我們走向全球經濟衰退或至少是經濟增長受到抑制，那麼這也意味著需求減少。

So it's really hard to say.

所以這真的很難說。

I think it's fair to assume that prices will be increasing its just not sure.

我認為可以假設價格會增加，只是不確定。

How much is there a case for oil majors to invest more in drilling at this time to increase production.

在這個時候，石油巨頭們有多少理由在鑽井方面進行更多投資以增加產量。

That is a very good question.

這是個非常好的問題。

Of course prices are really high at the moment.

當然，目前的價格確實很高。

At the same time there's of course the threat of climate policy where economies basically pledge all around the globe to lower their use of fossil fuels.

同時，當然還有氣候政策的威脅，全球各地的經濟體基本上都承諾降低化石燃料的使用。

So it's a, it's a short term long term situation, but my best guess would be that we actually see um investment in drilling in exploration picking up over the next one or two years.

是以，這是一個，這是一個短期的長期的情況，但我最好的猜測是，我們實際上看到嗯，在未來一兩年內，在勘探方面的鑽井投資會回升。

The flip side of that, of course, is that countries like Germany allowing expansion of drilling.

當然，其反面是，像德國這樣的國家允許擴大鑽井。

Could we, I anticipate that in the months ahead.

我們能不能，我預計在未來幾個月裡。

Um you mean for home produced oil and gas?

你是說自產石油和天然氣？

I'm not so sure, um there is a large majority really um in favor of climate policy and who is really opposing um drilling and um producing more at home.

我不太確定，嗯，有很大一部分人真的嗯贊成氣候政策，誰真的反對嗯鑽井和嗯在家裡生產更多的東西。

So I don't see really Germany investing in this kind of long term um commitment, especially with respect to gas, because our conventional resources are almost used up and we would have to go into fracking and there's a lot of um distrust and opinion against this, this type of drilling and exploration in Germany.

是以，我不認為德國真的會投資於這種長期的承諾，特別是在天然氣方面，因為我們的常規資源幾乎用完了，我們將不得不進入壓裂階段，而且在德國有很多不信任和反對這種類型的鑽探和勘探的意見。

I have to ask you, Mario Draghi Italy's Prime Minister throughout this interesting idea this week, after meeting with joe biden, he said that maybe there should be an opec of consumers that is a large number of consuming countries, oil consuming countries working together to bid prices down.

我必須問你，意大利總理馬里奧-德拉吉本週在與喬-拜登會面後提出了一個有趣的想法，他說，也許應該有一個消費者的歐佩克，即大量的消費國，石油消費國一起工作，以降低價格。

What do you make of that?

你怎麼看這個問題？

Is that feasible?

這是否可行？

I've heard that a couple of times, basically as a means to cap prices and the oil or in the gas market, I'm a little skeptical with respect to that.

我聽說過幾次，基本上是作為限制價格和石油或天然氣市場的一種手段，我對這一點有點懷疑。

Um there's always uh it's, it's kind of a, um, voluntary alliance and you always face the danger that countries who actually want to have more needed for the industry want to have more for consumers actually break out of that type of cartel.

它總是，它是一種，嗯，自願的聯盟，你總是面臨這樣的危險，即那些實際上想為行業提供更多需要的國家，想為消費者提供更多的東西，實際上是衝出了這種類型的卡特爾。

But the interest, the idea is interesting and of course it would be something to discuss, especially um, with respect to the G seven, whether there is some ground on which a fundamental agreement can be based that can be trusted.

但興趣、想法是有趣的，當然，這將是一個值得討論的問題，特別是嗯，關於七國集團，是否有一些基礎，可以在此基礎上達成一個可以信任的基本協議。

Finally, I have to ask you, should we anticipate that what we're seeing right now with energy prices, Will that change the way that we consume energy for the long term or will this be sort of a blip in a longer road?

最後，我必須問你，我們是否應該預計，我們現在所看到的能源價格，是否會改變我們長期的能源消費方式，或者這將是更長的道路中的一個小插曲？

I mean with respect to oil price, it's really hard to say how they develop in the long run.

我的意思是，關於油價，真的很難說它們在長期內如何發展。

I mean, since I've been dealing with these issues, I've heard they will never increase again or they will never fall again.

我的意思是，自從我處理這些問題以來，我聽說它們永遠不會再增加，或者它們永遠不會再下降。

So it's really hard to say how long it's actually gonna last.

所以真的很難說它實際上會持續多長時間。

This basically this price spike on gas markets, the estimation is that it's probably going to be a long, more long term increase.

這基本上是天然氣市場上的這種價格飆升，估計可能會是一個長期的，更長期的增長。

So I do think that the higher prices will change the way we use energy household wise, but also in the industry investing more in energy efficiency switching to other types of fuels.

是以，我確實認為更高的價格將改變我們在家庭方面使用能源的方式，但也會在行業中更多地投資於能源效率，轉而使用其他類型的燃料。

But of course if this price hike is really more of a short term nature than what we have seen in the past is that energy savings, fuel savings.

但當然，如果這次漲價真的比我們過去看到的更具有短期性質，就是節約能源，節約燃料。

Um, don't last that long.

嗯，不要持續那麼久。

Many people have reverted back to their old behavior.

許多人又恢復了他們的舊行為。

All right, Karen pedal with Ufo's Center for Energy, climate and resources in Munich.

好的，Karen pedal與Ufo在慕尼黑的能源、氣候和資源中心。

Thank you so much.

非常感謝你。

And that's all for our business special on oil and rising inflation.

這就是我們關於石油和通脹上升的商業專題的全部內容。

We've got plenty more business videos elsewhere on our DW News Youtube channel.

我們在DW新聞Youtube頻道的其他地方還有很多商業視頻。

Do check them out.

請查看他們。

You can also find find out more online at www dot com slash business.

你也可以在網上找到更多的資訊：www dot com slash business。

Thanks for watching.

謝謝你的觀看。