Name: 中國的零消費政策對經濟的影響深遠 | DW Business (China's zero-COVID policy bites deep into economy | DW Business)
Uploaded: 2022-05-18T10:50:14.000Z
Duration: 4 min 32 s

retail sales and factory output in china slumped to two year lows in april while unemployment climbed to two year highs, the new figures show the growing economic damage wrought by the country's ongoing covid 19 lockdowns, retail sales in china falling more than 11% for the month.

中國4月份的零售額和工廠產出下滑至兩年來的低點，而失業率攀升至兩年來的高點，新的數據顯示中國持續的Covid 19封鎖所造成的經濟損失越來越大。

過去簡單式

That's year on year, A drop last seen at the outbreak of the pandemic Industrial production meanwhile, fell about 3%, unemployment reached more than 6% in urban areas.

這是與去年相比，最後一次下降是在大流行病爆發時，同時，工業生產下降了約3%，城市地區的失業率達到6%以上。

形容詞最高級

Dozens of chinese cities remain in tight lockdown, including the world's largest ports city, Shanghai.

數十個中國城市仍然處於嚴密封鎖狀態，包括世界最大的港口城市上海。

Alright, My colleague Clifford Coonan joins me in studio for more Clifford.

好了，我的同事Clifford Coonan和我一起在演播室裡做更多的Clifford。

How unexpected or expected were these numbers?

這些數字有多大的意外或預期？

Well, they're they're certainly surprising and they're worse than the forecasts had had had predicted.

好吧，他們是......他們當然是令人驚訝的，他們比預測的情況更糟糕。

But at the same time, what's really surprising, I think is just the extent, you know, the depth of the slowdown.

但與此同時，真正令人驚訝的是，我認為這只是放緩的程度，你知道，放緩的深度。

It was obviously um partially because of, largely because of the lockdown in the in the major cities, but it's hit retail sales which were which the government has long relied on to prop up the economy.

顯然，部分原因是，主要是由於主要城市的封鎖，但它打擊了政府長期以來賴以支撐經濟的零售銷售。

Things like passenger car sales are down 47%.

And then, and that sort of feeds into other areas, for example, you know, the passenger car sales falling so much that accounts for so many jobs.

然後，這種情況會反饋到其他領域，例如，你知道，乘用車銷售下降這麼多，佔了這麼多就業機會。

So we have this problem with unemployment as well rising and the figures are the worst in two years.

是以，我們有這個問題，失業率也在上升，而且這個數字是兩年來最糟糕的。

But when you think about it two years ago was also pandemic related, You know, So really these are these are the worst in in, in since they've been records in china particularly cause unemployment data is quite recent in china.

但是當你考慮到兩年前也是與大流行病有關的，你知道，所以這些真的是中國有記錄以來最糟糕的一次，特別是因為中國的失業數據是最近的。

So we're looking at all sectors of the economy struggling from this and it's it's prompting a lot of questions about the depth of the economy.

是以，我們看到經濟的所有部門都在從中掙扎，這也促使人們對經濟的深度產生了很多疑問。

One of the questions is prompting is what does it mean for Western business?

其中一個問題是提示，這對西方企業意味著什麼？

So many of them, you know, relying on cities like Shenzhen shanghai to either manufacturer to ship to both.

所以他們中的許多人，你知道，依靠像深圳上海這樣的城市，要麼是製造商，要麼是運送到這兩個地方。

我的意思是這對他們意味著什麼？

Are they reconsidering what they're doing in china?

他們是否在重新考慮他們在中國所做的事情？

I mean, I'll give an example, there's a lot of there's a lot of foreign teachers in china for example, and one of the headmasters of one of the most prominent of foreign schools in in china just left.

我的意思是，我舉個例子，比如說中國有很多外國教師，中國最著名的外國學校之一的校長剛剛離開。

He didn't with without saying anything because he didn't think he'd be able to get out.

他沒有與不說，因為他不認為他能出去。

The lockdown has had a huge impact on people and it's caused quite a scandal in china.

封鎖對人們產生了巨大影響，在中國引起了相當大的醜聞。

And it's not unusual a lot of people, foreigners working in china now are worried because the level of micromanagement that's going on with the lockdown is incredible.

很多人，在中國工作的外國人現在都很擔心，因為封鎖後的微觀管理水平令人難以置信。

And it means that if you're trying to hire hire foreigners and china still needs foreign talent to keep keep economic growth going.

而這意味著，如果你想僱傭僱傭外國人，中國仍然需要外國人才來保持經濟增長。

It's becoming a real challenge means the government's almost more inscrutable in some ways, you don't know when the lockdown is coming.

這正在成為一個真正的挑戰，意味著政府在某些方面幾乎更加難以捉摸，你不知道什麼時候會有封鎖。

You don't know if you're going to be able to move around and do business.

你不知道你是否能夠四處走動和做生意。

Exactly, and it shows up, I mean, I think in some ways this is xi Jinping's Churchill moment, he's treating it like a um like a war on covid standing his ground.

沒錯，它顯示出，我的意思是，我認為在某些方面，這是習近平的丘吉爾時刻，他把它當作一個嗯，就像一場站在自己立場的戰爭。

Exactly, and which means he's been very, very rigid and the level of micromanagement is incredible, people, you know, every three days you get a knock on the door and you're forced to take a test, you know, and this is, this is proving a real problem.

沒錯，這意味著他一直非常、非常嚴格，微觀管理水平令人難以置信，人們，你知道，每三天就會有人來敲門，你被迫參加考試，你知道，這，這證明了一個真正的問題。

And what's the domestic support for that line though within china, I mean, is there disagreement with this hard, hard line when you're seeing the economic numbers just plummet like this?

中國國內對這一路線的支持是什麼，我的意思是，當你看到經濟數字像這樣暴跌時，是否對這一強硬的路線有異議？

Well, I think this is going to be the factor, it's going to really hit support for the government because they're thinking because because a microphone isn't as bad as the other variants, there's increasingly a lot of dissatisfaction about this and there's a lot of censorship on, on trying to stop it.

好吧，我認為這將是一個因素，它將真正打擊對政府的支持，因為他們認為因為一個麥克風並不像其他變種那樣糟糕，越來越多的人對此感到不滿，而且有很多審查制度在，在試圖阻止它。

Is this a phase when we look at omicron and and we know the pandemic isn't necessarily a phase, but does Beijing see this perhaps the phase, once they get through this, they'll just turn the economy back on.

當我們看歐米茄時，這是否是一個階段，我們知道大流行病不一定是一個階段，但北京是否看到這也許是一個階段，一旦他們度過這個階段，他們就會把經濟重新打開。

Yeah, this is, I think there is a feeling that you can turn it on and off and this is gonna be obviously a test of that, I think to a certain extent they can, you know, because foreign companies are still deeply embedded there, you know, with the supply chain, they're not going to be in Vietnam or Exactly, they these countries just don't have the infrastructure that china has, they don't have the scale that china has and India isn't there yet another possibility?

是的，這是，我認為有一種感覺，你可以打開和關閉它，這顯然將是一個測試，我認為在某種程度上他們可以，你知道，因為外國公司仍然深深地嵌入那裡，你知道，與供應鏈，他們不會在越南或確切地說，他們這些國家只是沒有中國的基礎設施，他們沒有中國的規模，印度是不是還有另一種可能性？

So I think people are still going to be in china, but I think I think that thinking about china has changed even in Germany where which is always which is very very involved, heavily invested in china is also now looking at things like we saw Volkswagen recently is looking quite closely at the United States America.

所以我認為人們仍然會在中國，但我認為我認為對中國的思考已經改變了，甚至在德國，總是非常非常地參與，在中國大量投資的德國現在也在看一些東西，比如我們看到大眾汽車最近正在相當密切地關注美國。

You know, so people are thinking it's less there's less of a sort of a focus on china that there was so ultimately they will the economy will come back but maybe in a different way.

你知道，所以人們在想，現在對中國的關注沒有以前那麼多了，所以最終他們的經濟會回來，但可能是以不同的方式。

 Businesses, Clifford Coonan, thank you very much. 

企業，克利福德-庫南，非常感謝你。

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中國的零消費政策對經濟的影響深遠 | DW Business (China's zero-COVID policy bites deep into economy | DW Business)

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