There's never any good news.

從來都沒有出現過什麼好消息

Only graphs that get more and more red and angry.

只能看到圖表上充斥著憤怒的紅色

Almost every year breaks some horrible record,

每一年都不斷創下一些很可怕的紀錄

from the harshest heat waves

從最炙熱的熱浪

to the most rapid glacier melt.

到最急遽消融的冰川

It's endless,

這不斷不斷地持續下去

and relentless.

永無止盡

We've known for decades that rapid climate change has been caused by the release of greenhouse gases.

我們幾十年前就已經知道溫室氣體帶來了劇烈的氣候變遷

But instead of reducing them, in 2019 the world was emitting 50% more CO₂ than in the year 2000.

但我們不但沒有減少它們, 2019年的二氧化碳排放量還比2000年多出５０％

And emissions are still rising.

而到現在依舊持續攀升

Why is that? Why is it so hard to just stop emitting these gases?

為什麼會這樣？為什麼停止排放這些氣體會那麼困難？

Our collective CO₂ emissions can be expressed as a product of four factors and their relationship with each other.

我們的二氧化碳集體排放量, 可以被分成四個大要素之間的交互關係來說明

Two of them explain why worldwide CO₂ emissions are still rising, and two explain how we can stop that.

其中兩個解釋了為什麼全世界二氧化碳排放依舊在持續上升 而另外兩個則說明我們能夠怎麼停止它們

Population Size, Economic Growth, Energy Intensity, and Emissions pere Energy unit produced.

「人口規模」, 「經濟成長」, 「能源密集度」, 以及「每個產能單位的排放量」

Number 1: Population Size

第一點: 人口規模

People need food, homes, and clothing.

人們需要食物, 居所, 還有衣物

And they demand luxury products from iPhones to one dollar cheeseburgers

也需要像是iPhone和1美元的起司漢堡之類的奢侈品

more people = higher CO₂ emissions.

更多人口 = 更高的二氧化碳排放

It's a very simple equation.

是非常簡單易懂的等式

The global population is growing, and according to the UN it will level off at about 11 billion in 2100, which is 40% more than today.

根據聯合國估算, 人口將成長將在2100年以110億人的數量平穩下來, 也就是比現在還要多40%的人口數

The only way to slow down this growth is investment in healthcare, and access to contraception and education in developing countries.

減緩這種成長的唯一途徑是: 在開發中國家投資在醫療, 避孕措施以及教育

But even with massive investment, it will take a few decades for the effects of lower birthrates to manifest themselves,

但即便是有了巨量的投資, 降低生育率的效果也要幾十年才能顯現

so the global population will keep growing for the foreseeable future,

所以全球人口在可預見的未來內依舊會持續成長

and, as a consequence, global CO₂ emissions rise over the next few decades.

而這樣的結果就是, 在接下來幾十年全球的二氧化碳排放攀升

Number 2: Growth, or "Getting Richer".

第二點: 經濟成長, 抑或是「更加富有」

But it's not just about our numbers,

經濟成長的影響並不只是幾個數字那麼簡單

The richer and more developed we are, the more emissions our lifestyle produces.

只要我們更富有且發達, 我們的生活方式就會有更高的排放量

A programmer in the US has a higher CO₂ footprint than 50 farmers in Uganda.

一個美國的軟體工程師的碳足跡, 整整超過50名烏干達農民的總和

The world's wealth is growing almost everywhere.

全世界的經濟幾乎都正在成長

And although it's far from easily distrubuted, economic growth has led to the highest standards of living, and the largest reduction in extreme poverty in human history.

而雖然財富非常難以分配, 經濟成長帶來了人類歷史上最高的生活品質以及最少量的窮困

Growth has become the dominant mantra of the world's economies, no matter what kind of political system they have.

「成長」儼然成為了主宰世界經濟的咒語, 無論是身處怎麼樣的政治體系.

It's unlikely that rich countries will give up the concept of growth any time soon.

富裕的國家不太可能很快地放棄經濟成長的理念

But even if they were to, developing countries want to become rich too

但就算真的放棄了, 開發中國家也都想要變得富有

For billions of people, the end of growth would probably mean staying poor

對數十億的人來說, 結束經濟成長就等於繼續窮困下去

and so developing countries are not willing to stop growing their economies.

所以開發中國家不會停下他們經濟成長的腳步

All in all, we can agree that growth as a guiding economic ideology is not going to go away any time soon.

總的來說, 我們同意短時間內成長都會是主要的經濟思想

More countries and their citizens around the world will grow and become richer while the rich economies will continue to grow their wealth.

世界上的更多國家以及他們的人民會變得更加富有, 而富裕的經濟體會持續為他們帶來更多財富

There are some signs that growth can be decoupled from CO₂ emissions but we're not close to that yet.

一些跡象表明經濟成長可以與二氧化碳排放脫鉤, 但我們還沒辦法做到那一點

As a consequence of this growth, CO₂ emissions will rise.

而作為經濟成長的後果, 二氧化碳的排放會持續增長

Ok, so far we've learned that because of population growth and economic growth, humanity's CO₂ emissions will increase.

好, 目前為止我們了解了人口和經濟的成長會造成二氧化碳增加

...which is the opposite of what should be happening.

...也正是我們最不想發生的事

We need to slow, peak, and then reduce annual emissions.

我們要減緩, 然後到達最高峰, 最後開始減少年度的排放量

The next two factors describe how we can actually do this.

接下來的兩個要素會告訴我們實際上該怎麼做

Number 3: Energy Intensity

第三點: 能源密集度

Energy intensity describes how efficiently we use energy.

能源密集度表示了我們有多善用我們的能源

A street food vendor in rural Brazil might burn coal to cook...

巴西農村的街頭小販或許會燒煤做飯

while a street food vendor in France might use an induction stove powered by nuclear energy.

而巴黎街頭小攤則可能使用核能作為電力來源的電磁爐

The latter is way more efficient.

相較之下後者是非常有效率的方式

The more efficient something is, the less energy we need to do something.

越高效的東西，我們做某件事所需的能量就越少。

Be it powering a metropolitan area, or grilling a kebab.

無論是為大都市供電，還是燒烤肉串

So making our technology more efficient, and coming up with more efficient ways to organise our societies

所以讓我們的科技更高效, 並想出更有效的方式來整合社會

is one of the most important ways to reduce the modern world's CO₂ dependancy.

是減少當代世界對二氧化碳依賴的重要方式中的一環

This can mean everything from reducing power consumption with A.I.,

這有可能是指從用人工智慧來減少能源消耗,

the electrification of the transportation and industrial sectors,

運輸和工業的電氣化

or sustainable concrete production.

或是能夠長期使用的混凝土產物

The opportunities for improvement are almost limitless,

能夠改善的地方幾乎是無遠弗屆的

and human ingenuity can run wild.

而人類的聰明才智也能在此大放異彩

But we know that increasing efficiency alone will not be enough,

但我們知道只是增加使用效率並不足夠

mostly for 3 reasons:

大致上有以下三個原因:

1: Direct Rebound Effects.

1. 直接反彈效應

This means that once something becomes more efficient, it's used more,

意思是, 我們會更樂於去使用某個變得更高效的東西

and so overall, the increased efficiency does not lead to a reduction as impressive as you would first think.

所以總的來說, 使物品變得高效所帶來的能源用量減少並沒有一開始預期那麼多

...or worse, sometimes more efficiency makes humans use not *less* of a resource,

...或甚至, 有時更方便高效的東西並不會讓人們用更少的資源

but *more* of it.

反而是更多.

When planes became more fuel-efficient, ticket prices decreased, and more people started to travel by plane.

當飛機變得越來越省油, 機票變得便宜, 也造成了更多人開始搭飛機四處旅遊

So making things more efficient does not automatically mean less energy use in total.

所以單純把東西變得高效並不代表我們整體的能源用量減低

It might have the opposite effect.

它是很有可能造成反效果的

2: Indirect Rebound Effects.

2. 間接反彈效應

Sometimes when you save money on a thing that becomes more efficient, you might spend it elsewhere.

有時我們因為某些更有效率的東西省下了些錢, 可能會把它們花在其他地方

For example, if you buy a more fuel-efficient car,

舉個例子來說, 如果你買了一輛十分省油的車,

you save money on fuel, and end up with extra funds in your bank account...

你節省了不少燃料, 銀行帳戶也增加了不少錢

...that you might spend on vacation, and take a flight with.

那你就很有可能決定買張機票, 並好好享受一段假期

So in the end, you might actually emit more CO₂

所以到頭來, 即使有了一輛更省油的車,

despite getting a more efficient car.

實際上你可能排放了更多二氧化碳

3: And lastly,

(3. 更低的投資報酬率) 而最後,

the more you optimise for efficiency,

當我們花越多心力在提升效率上,

the harder and more expensive it becomes to get more efficient.

提升效率所需的成本跟難度也會水漲船高

So, over time, the return on investment slows down.

所以到最後, 它所帶來的投資報酬率會降低

And, with many technologies, we are already pretty efficient.

而且, 拜不少科技所賜, 我們已經過著十分有效率的生活

But, regardless of how efficient we make our economies,

但是, 不管我們的經濟有多高效

as long as we need at least some energy, we will have emissions.

只要我們還需要一點點能源, 就會產生排放量

Efficiency alone won't create a zero-carbon world.

單單靠著效率是沒辦法創造出一個零碳排世界的

This brings us to our last factor:

這將我們帶來了最後一個要素

Number 4: CO₂ emissions per energy unit used, or "Our Global Carbon Footprint".

第四點: 每個產能單位的二氧化碳排放, 或稱 "我們的全球碳足跡"

Humanity's global carbon footprint

人類的全球碳足跡係指

is the CO₂ released per energy unit generated.

每一個產生能源的單位所產生的二氧化碳

For example, coal plants release much much more CO₂

舉例來說, 每單位的燃煤發電廠釋放的二氧化碳

than solar power per unit of energy.

遠比每個太陽能電廠還要多

This relationship is crystal clear.

這層關係十分的顯而易見

The more fossil fuels we burn, the higher our CO₂ output.

燃燒越多的化石燃料, 那麼也伴隨著更多的二氧化碳產生

Fossil fuels are the greatest lever humanity has right now.

化石燃料可以說是人類現在所擁有最大的控制桿

Of course, it's impossible to shut down coal and oil overnight

當然, 不可能一夕之間切斷了所有的煤炭和石油

without throwing society into chaos.

還不對我們的社會造成任何混亂

But the reality is, that we're not doing nearly enough to keep fossil fuels in the ground

然而事實就是, 在減少化石燃料的消耗還有使用低碳替代品的這點下

and use lower-carbon alternatives

我們可以說是做得非常不足

We need to do 2 things to speed the transition away from fossil fuels.

我們需要做2件事情來加速淘汰化石燃料的過渡期

First, we need to use the real leverage we have today, with today's technology

首先, 我們需要善用現在就有的科技, 並做真正有影響力的事

There are a lot of things we can do extremely quickly.

我們可以非常快速地完成很多事情

We can leave nuclear power plants online longer.

我們可以讓核能電廠運作更長久的時間

We can cut subsidies to the fossil fuel industry,

我們可以減少對石化產業的補助津貼

and funnel them into renewables.

並把它們轉往可再生能源

We can price carbon emissions harshly,

我們可以嚴厲地為碳排放定價

and increase the price each year

並逐年追加他的價格

to create strong incentives for the world's industries to transition.

為世界的產業轉型創造強而有力動能

We can enforce strict standards for energy efficiency,

我們能強制在能源使用效率和新的建設上

and for any type of new construction.

訂立嚴格的標準

We can phase out fossil fuel vehicles.

我們還能夠淘汰燃油車

Next, we also need to invent new and better technology.

下一步是, 我們也會需要發明更新更好的技術

Without new technologies and innovation,

若是沒有新技術還有新發明

it will be impossible to achieve a zero CO₂ emission world,

要想達成零碳排放的世界可說是遙不可及

be it from technologies like carbon capture,

無論像是碳捕集技術

or a new generation of nuclear power plants,

或是新一代的核能發電廠

to new batteries that revolutionise the energy storage from renewables.

再到能為再生能源的貯存帶來革命的新電池

But innovation takes time: years, and decades...

但是發明也是很花時間的: 好幾年, 好幾十年...

...and we don't have this time.

...而我們的時間並不充裕

Every year, we keep adding more carbon to the atmosphere.

每年我們都持續的釋放更多的碳到我們的空氣中

This means we can't keep relying on innovation alone.

這意味著我們不能一直只是依賴新的發明

We need to find ways to reduce emissions today, while we invent what we will need in the future.

當我們在發明未來會需要的東西時, 也需要找到一些方式來減低排放

The less fossil fuel we burn over the next few years,

只要我們接連幾年燃燒更少的化石燃料

the more time we give innovation to catch up.

我們的發明就有更多時間能迎頭趕上

The more low-carbon energy infrastructure we build today,

只要我們興建更多低碳能源的基礎建設

the more we can compensate for economic growth, and the people born today.

我們就能夠彌補經濟的成長和現在誕生的人們

The more coal power plants in construction we stop from being finished,

只要遏止更多興建中的燃煤發電廠

the more CO₂ we save.

我們就省下了更多的二氧化碳排放

Neither innovation, nor the alternatives we're using today alone

不管是新發明, 或是我們現在使用的替代方案

can solve rapid climate change.

都不能夠獨自解決急遽的氣候變遷

But, innovation, together with a decisive move away from fossil fuels where it's possible today

但是, 只要有新的發明, 以及立即果斷從化石燃料身邊抽離的決心

could do it.

就能夠讓這件事情成真

Solving climate change will be complicated.

解決氣候變遷是很錯綜復雜的事情

We have to account for the needs of billions of people

我們必須將它正視為幾十億人類的需求

and the reality that right now, society runs mostly on fossil fuels.

而如今化石燃料幾乎是社會運作賴以為生的資源

This will not change overnight,

這些都不會在傾刻之間就有所改變

but it needs to change as quickly as possible.

但需要盡快的採取行動

And it is still very much possible??

如此一來依然會是一個非常有可能辦到的事??

We'll look at different aspects of climate change, and how to solve it

我們將會在更多影片帶來有關氣候變遷的方方面面

in more videos.

還有如何解決這些問題

Let us know what kind of stuff you want to know more about

讓我們知道你們都想知道些什麼樣的玩意兒吧！

Here on YouTube, or join us in our subreddit

可以從Youtube或是加入我們的subReddit!

This video is part of a series about climate change supported by Breakthrough Energy,

這支影片是由Breakthrough Energy贊助的氣候變遷系列影片的其中之一

a coalition founded by Bill Gates, that's working to expand clean energy investment

這個聯盟是由比爾蓋茨創立，致力於擴大乾淨能源投資

and support the innovations that will lead the world to net-zero carbon emissions

並支持能夠引領世界實現淨零碳排放的各種新發明

Also, a special thanks to the team at Our World in Data, for helping us out with data & research

另外, 也要特別感謝來自Our World in Data的團隊來幫助我們完成資料以及研究

*quack* ?

譯: Louis Tsai