Interest rates have been at historic lows since the global financial crisis – but

自全球金融危機以來，利率一直處於歷史低位--但

they're beginning to creep up.

他們開始爬升。

If you look at what's happening around us today, we seem to have a situation that,

如果你看看今天我們周圍發生的事情，我們似乎有這樣一種情況。

I think, matches more what we saw 50 years ago.

我認為，與我們50年前看到的情況比較吻合。

But what is an interest rate anyway, and what will this change mean for your life?

但究竟什麼是利率，這一變化對你的生活意味著什麼？

Most people borrow money at some point in their lives – whether it's to buy a house,

大多數人在他們生命中的某個時刻都會借錢--不管是為了買房子。

a car, for education, or to start a business.

購車、教育或創業。

But with interest rates on the rise, that's about to become a lot more expensive.

但隨著利率的上升，這將變得更加昂貴。

Here's why.

原因就在這裡。

Let's say you want to buy a car, but you're short $20,000.

比方說，你想買一輛車，但你缺少2萬美元。

An option a lot of people take is getting a loan from a lender like a bank or credit union.

很多人採取的一個選擇是向銀行或信用社等貸款機構申請貸款。

In this example, a bank has agreed to loan you the $20,000 for your car.

在這個例子中，銀行已經同意為你的汽車貸款20,000美元。

But the bank isn't going to give you that money for free.

但銀行不會免費給你這些錢。

After all, there's a chance you could not pay them back – or that the $20,000 will

畢竟，你有可能無法償還他們--或者說，這20,000美元將會

be worth less in the future because of inflation.

由於通貨膨脹，未來的價值會降低。

So, you compensate the bank for the money.

是以，你向銀行賠償了這筆錢。

'Interest' is what you're charged for the loan, usually represented by a percentage

利息 "是指對你的貸款收取的費用，通常以百分比表示。

of the total amount borrowed. The higher the interest rate, the more you owe the bank.

的總借貸金額。利率越高，你欠銀行的就越多。

This is one of the main ways lenders make money.

這是貸款人賺錢的主要方式之一。

So, who decides whether interest rates are up or down? The answer is your local central bank.

那麼，誰來決定利率是上升還是下降？ 答案是你們當地的中央銀行。

At a very basic level, the interest you pay the bank usually depends on a few things:

在一個非常基本的層面上，你支付給銀行的利息通常取決於幾個方面。

How likely it is that you will pay the debt,

你償還債務的可能性有多大。

how long it takes for you to repay the money and

你需要多長時間才能還清錢，以及

your central bank's interest rates, and where they may head in the future.

你的中央銀行的利率，以及它們在未來可能的走向。

You see, a central bank is a bank for banks.

你看，中央銀行是一個銀行的銀行。

If it raises interest rates, it makes it more expensive for your bank to borrow money.

如果它提高利率，就會使你的銀行借錢更加昂貴。

If the central bank lowers rates, it's the opposite.

如果央行降低利率，情況就會相反。

And that works its way out to the economy - and to you and your car loan.

這對經濟產生了影響--也對你和你的汽車貸款產生了影響。

Central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England use interest rates

中央銀行，如美國聯邦儲備局和英格蘭銀行使用利率

to try to manage the economy.

以試圖管理經濟。

And for the first time in more than three years, both central banks raised their interest rates.

而且，在三年多的時間裡，兩家央行首次提高了利率。

A number of countries have also raised their interest rates in the last six months, including

在過去六個月裡，一些國家也提高了利率，包括

South Korea, India, New Zealand and Brazil.

韓國、印度、紐西蘭和巴西。

But why?

但為什麼呢？

As the pandemic devastated markets and slowed economic growth, many central banks made aggressive interest rate cuts.

隨著大流行病對市場的破壞和經濟增長的減緩，許多中央銀行進行了積極的降息。

This lowered the cost of taking loans, which in turn spurred consumer spending and encouraged big credit purchases.

這降低了貸款的成本，這反過來又刺激了消費者的支出，鼓勵了大額信貸購買。

Now, with demand recovering and supply chains affected by the pandemic and the Ukraine war, inflation has gone up.

現在，隨著需求的恢復和供應鏈受到大流行病和烏克蘭戰爭的影響，通貨膨脹已經上升。

This time round, we got this perfect storm of both supply disruption and rising wealth

這一次，我們得到了這場供應中斷和財富上升的完美風暴。

that is creating this very bad inflationary situation.

這就造成了這種非常糟糕的通貨膨脹局面。

Lee Boon Keng worked in the finance industry for 15 years and is now a banking and finance professor in Singapore.

李文慶在金融業工作了15年，現在是新加坡的一名銀行和金融教授。

Inflation is caused by what we call excess demand, whether your excess demand is caused

通貨膨脹是由我們所說的需求過剩引起的，無論你的需求過剩是由什麼引起的

by falling supply or rising demand, it's still excess demand.

通過供應下降或需求上升，它仍然是過剩的需求。

A lot of people were thinking the pandemic will be more damaging, economically.

很多人都在想，大流行病在經濟上會有更大的破壞性。

The fact that there were a lot of government injections into the economy, has somewhat

政府向經濟注入大量資金的事實，在一定程度上影響了經濟發展。

lifted everyone, and that creates what I call wealth effect. We got geopolitical crisis.

提升了每個人，這就產生了我所說的財富效應。 我們有地緣政治危機。

We got China, which is literally the manufacturers of the world, deciding that they need to have

我們得到了中國，這簡直是世界的製造商，決定他們需要有

zero-Covid, and therefore it's shutting down.

0-Covid，是以它正在關閉。

So, this is a very bad concoction.

是以，這是一個非常糟糕的調和劑。

Rightfully, policymakers should be acting in a way to tame inflation.

理所當然，政策制定者應該以一種方式來馴服通脹。

And the main tool central banks have is interest rates.

而中央銀行的主要工具是利率。

Raising interest rates has historically slowed economic growth and reduced inflation.

從歷史上看，提高利率會減緩經濟增長並降低通貨膨脹。

High interest rate was somewhat transitory in the past.

在過去，高利率在一定程度上是過渡性的。

They somehow managed to tame it quite easily, and that is a phenomenon that we've seen easily

他們以某種方式設法相當容易地馴服它，而這是我們很容易看到的一種現象

for the last 35 years.

在過去的35年中。

Unfortunately, this time, what we're seeing is a period where inflation seems to be a

不幸的是，這一次，我們看到的是一個通貨膨脹似乎是一個

little bit more structural.

結構性更強一點。

We've gone into a time where we sit back, look back in history and couldn't find a

我們已經進入了一個時代，我們坐下來，回顧歷史，無法找到一個

time that is familiar to us, that we can relate to, and I think that's the fundamental problem.

我們熟悉的時間，我們可以涉及的時間，我認為這就是根本問題所在。

And that – what I call – policy hesitancy has kind of caught the entire system by surprise.

而這種--我稱之為--政策上的猶豫不決，有點讓整個系統措手不及。

A lot of policymakers have been hesitant to react more structurally, more aggressively

很多政策制定者一直在猶豫是否要做出更多結構性、更積極的反應

to the current situation.

到目前的情況。

What would be the adverse impact on the average consumer who is experiencing high interest rates right now?

對現在正經歷高利率的普通消費者來說，會有什麼不利影響？

You want to buy your big-ticket items, those are going to be more expensive.

你想買你的大件物品，那些會更貴。

If you were borrowing money to run your business by borrowing cost, it's also going to be on the rise.

如果你是通過借貸成本來經營你的企業，那麼它也將會上升。

It's not a situation for you to really go all out in terms of ramping up your loans and all these things

在這種情況下，你不可能真的全力以赴地增加你的貸款和所有這些事情。

so that you can take advantage of rising real estate prices and all these things.

這樣你就可以利用房地產價格上漲和所有這些事情。

It's really about investing within what you're comfortable at.

這真的是關於在你所適應的範圍內投資。

But it's not all bad news.

但這並不全是壞消息。

Higher interest rates can be good for your savings.

較高的利率可以對你的儲蓄有好處。

Banks incentivize customers to save their money with them by offering to pay you interest.

銀行通過向你支付利息來激勵客戶把錢存到他們那裡。

It seems like a good deal.

這似乎是一筆好買賣。

You make money for parking your cash in a savings account.

你把現金停在儲蓄賬戶裡就能賺錢。

But generally, the earnings from these accounts for the last decade and a half have been minimal.

但一般來說，在過去的十五年裡，這些賬戶的收益是微乎其微的。

And many people are choosing to put their extra money in riskier places –

like investing in stocks or crypto – instead.

比如投資股票或加密貨幣--而不是。

This shift in policy could change that.

這一政策的轉變可能會改變這種情況。

So I started working about 10-ish years ago, and interest rates have always been really low since then.

是以，我在大約10年左右的時間裡開始工作，從那時起，利率一直非常低。

Millennials are in our life stage where we are spending on really the big-ticket items in our lives.

千禧一代正處於我們的生活階段，我們正在為生活中真正的大件物品進行消費。

Dinesh Dayani is the co-founder of Dollars & Sense, a personal finance portal based in Singapore.

Dinesh Dayani是Dollars & Sense的聯合創始人，這是一個位於新加坡的個人金融門戶網站。

You can continue investing, continue putting the bulk of your investments into maybe fixed

你可以繼續投資，繼續將你的大部分投資投入到也許是固定的

deposits, maybe hopefully, with rising interest rates, they rise a little bit as well.

存款，也許希望隨著利率上升，它們也會上升一點。

So, you can eat back a little bit on inflation.

是以，你可以在通貨膨脹上吃回一點。

But I don't think it's going to be easy for someone who is retiring today and need a very

但我認為，對於今天即將退休的人來說，這並不容易，他們需要一個非常

safe basket of investments on their portfolio.

對他們的投資組合進行安全的一攬子投資。

So, if you want to invest, invest through low-cost brokerages.

是以，如果你想投資，就通過低成本的經紀公司投資。

And then I mention credit cards.

然後我提到了信用卡。

We don't really get cashback for credit cards.

我們並沒有真正得到信用卡的現金返還。

But you know when we sign up for credit cards, we tend to get a lot of perks as well.

但是你知道當我們註冊信用卡時，我們往往也會得到很多好處。

So we can spend a bit smarter as well.

所以我們也可以花得更聰明一點。

Recently I even actually signed up for this BNPL option.

最近我甚至真的註冊了這個BNPL選項。

BNPL stands for 'Buy Now, Pay Later' and it's an increasingly popular payment method

BNPL代表 "先買後付"，它是一種越來越流行的支付方式

for consumers to purchase an item and pay for it in future installments, usually without interest.

為消費者購買物品並在未來分期付款，通常不計利息。

I was literally at the store already buying something and then the store cashier or owner

我真的在商店裡已經買了東西，然後商店收銀員或老闆

told me that hey, if you sign up for this, you get instantly 20% off.

告訴我，嘿，如果你註冊了這個，你可以立即得到20%的折扣。

Like, 30% off. Exactly.

比如，30%的折扣。 正是如此。

I think we have to be prudent here because on one hand we can spend more than we realize

我認為我們在這裡必須謹慎，因為一方面我們的花費可能比我們意識到的要多。

by using some of these options.

通過使用其中的一些選項。

But if we're spending prudently and using this to offset only the cost that we're already

但是，如果我們審慎地支出，並且只用這個來抵消我們已經發生的費用

going to incur, that's another way that we can lower expenses for ourselves.

這也是我們為自己降低開支的另一種方式。

We are in the repeat of the 70s where inflation is going to be persistently high at least for the next two years.

我們正在重蹈70年代的覆轍，至少在未來兩年內，通脹將持續走高。

We have to brace ourselves for a recession.

我們必須為經濟衰退做好準備。

Diversify. Look at your finances.

多樣化。看看你的財務狀況。

Make sure that you're not overextended.

確保你沒有過度擴張。

My recommendation to a lot of people right now, make sure you hold your job.

我現在對很多人的建議是，確保你守住你的工作。

Your job is very important to combat inflation.

你的工作對打擊通貨膨脹非常重要。

There is this thing called the Great Resignation that's going on.

有一件事叫做大辭典，正在進行中。

A lot of people think that look, I go out there, if I quit my job today, I find another

很多人認為，聽著，我走出去，如果我今天辭掉工作，我再找一個

job with X percentage increase in pay.

工作，工資增加X個百分點。

But once a certain tipping point happens, you will be what we call 'last in, first out'.

但是，一旦發生某個臨界點，你就會成為我們所說的 "後進先出"。

Inflation is just a good excuse slash chance to relook the non-discretionary basket and

通貨膨脹只是一個很好的藉口，讓我們有機會重新審視非可控的籃子和

rethink what we're spending on.

重新思考我們的開支。

There is no other way to end this inflation, given that supply chain disruption in the

鑑於供應鏈的中斷，沒有其他辦法來結束這種通貨膨脹。

background, besides demand destruction, and demand destruction can only be achieved by

背景，除了需求破壞，而需求破壞只能通過以下方式實現

very, very tight monetary policy.

非常、非常緊的貨幣政策。

And that includes high interest rates.

而這包括高利率。

Yes, and that includes high interest rate, very high interest rate.

是的，這包括高利率，非常高的利率。