the loss of life, month by month, for two years, looks like this.

兩年來，逐月的生命損失看起來是這樣的。

Altogether more than 900,000 people have died.

總共有90多萬人死亡。

But there really are two pandemics here.

但這裡確實有兩個大流行病。

Because starting in the spring of 2021

因為從2021年春季開始

the distribution of the vaccines dramatically changed the nature of the pandemic.

疫苗的分發極大地改變了該大流行病的性質。

If we look closer at the delta wave and the beginning of omicron

如果我們更仔細地看一下delta波和omicron的開始

we see the deaths of unvaccinated people were much higher than vaccinated people.

我們看到未接種疫苗者的死亡人數遠遠高於接種疫苗者。

This data comes from a subset of US states and cities that provide immunization data.

這些數據來自美國各州和城市提供免疫數據的子集。

While the delta wave did kill some vaccinated people

雖然三角波確實殺死了一些接種疫苗的人

the risk was 15 times higher if you were unvaccinated.

如果你沒有接種疫苗，其風險要高15倍。

Philly Baird was one of those unvaccinated people.

菲利-貝爾德是那些未接種疫苗的人之一。

And he started going live on his Facebook page from the hospital.

他開始在醫院的Facebook頁面上進行直播。

"I love you guys."

"我愛你們。"

"I'm able to talk today."

"我今天能夠說話了。"

"Today's been a great day."

"今天是個好日子。"

In one of the videos he recommends to his friends and family that they get the vaccine.

在其中一個視頻中，他向他的朋友和家人建議他們接種疫苗。

Do you think that was a hard thing for him to say?

你認為這對他來說是一件難事嗎？

Yes, because that's not what he had been communicating, you know, prior to that.

是的，因為這不是他一直在溝通的，你知道，在這之前。

But I think that he would want me to communicate what I know he wanted

但我認為，他希望我傳達我知道他想要的東西。

and that is for you to look at his situation

那就是你要看看他的情況

and realize that you could possibly get

並意識到你可能會得到

you could get severe the Covid like he did and be fighting for your life.

你可以像他那樣得到嚴重的Covid，併為你的生命而戰。

And then have a lot of regrets that you didn't have the vaccine at that time.

然後有很多遺憾，你當時沒有接種疫苗。

"You know I was one of those that sat there and kinda

"你知道我是那些坐在那裡，有點

was more on the political side with Covid and all."

更多的是在政治方面，與科維德和所有。"

"We gotta put all that aside."

"我們必須把所有這些放在一邊。"

Now when it comes to the political breakdown on vaccinations, there are two things to know.

現在談到關於疫苗接種的政治細分，有兩件事需要知道。

One is that a majority of Republicans are vaccinated with at least 1 dose

一個是大多數共和黨人至少接種了1劑疫苗

according to the most recent survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

根據凱撒家庭基金會的最新調查。

The 2nd thing to know is that most unvaccinated Americans are Republican.

要知道的第二件事是，大多數未接種疫苗的美國人是共和黨人。

So the question is: how does that affect the balance of lives lost?

是以，問題是：這如何影響到生命損失的平衡？

Well, we can plot the states directly by their 2020 election results

那麼，我們可以根據各州2020年的選舉結果直接繪製出各州的情況

with the red states on the right and the blue states on the left.

右邊是紅色的州，左邊是藍色的州。

And we can look at their death rates since April 2021.

而我們可以看一下他們自2021年4月以來的死亡率。

And it's pretty striking.

而這是相當引人注目的。

The Republican states were suffering much bigger losses.

共和黨各州遭受的損失要大得多。

And I want to stress that this relationship wasn't there before the vaccines.

我想強調的是，這種關係在接種疫苗之前是不存在的。

This is the same chart, but it shows death rates before April 2021.

這是同一個圖表，但它顯示了2021年4月之前的死亡率。

And they're much more spread out, with Covid hitting blue states as hard as red ones.

而且它們更加分散，科維德對藍州和紅州的打擊同樣嚴重。

So what I want to understand is the series of events that took us from this... to this.

所以我想了解的是把我們從這個......帶到這個的一系列事件。

"The Democrats are in a full-court freak out over coronavirus

"民主黨在冠狀病毒問題上全面發飆

after Ted cruz self-isolated after coming into contact..."

在泰德-克魯茲接觸後自我隔離..."

Phil Valentine was my younger brother.

菲爾-瓦倫丁是我的弟弟。

A very accomplished radio entertainment personality.

一個非常有成就的廣播娛樂人士。

"New York Times even called it the Trump virus."

"紐約時報 "甚至稱其為 "特朗普病毒"。

"Can you imagine if the Ebola virus had been called the Obama virus?"

"你能想象如果埃博拉病毒被稱為奧巴馬病毒嗎？"

He was on air in July and you can hear him kind of talking through the symptoms.

他在7月的直播中，你可以聽到他在談論這些症狀。

"This is my Covid saga."

"這是我的科維德傳奇。"

"And yesterday was probably my worst day and just the shaking and the chills..."

"而昨天可能是我最糟糕的一天，只是發抖和發冷..."

Really processing things on air.

真的在空中處理事情。

"And as I've told you, I'm not judging anybody either way."

"而且我已經告訴過你，我不會以任何方式評判任何人。"

"If you want to get the vaccine, it's a personal health decision."

"如果你想接種疫苗，這是一個個人健康決定。"

"I made the decision that I probably wouldn't die from it."

"我做了一個決定，我可能不會是以而死。"

"Phil would like his listeners to know that he regrets not being more vehemently pro-vaccine."

"菲爾希望他的聽眾知道，他很後悔沒有更強烈地支持疫苗。"

"He is in the hospital in the critical-care unit..."

"他在醫院的重症監護室裡......"

He said, you know, I got it wrong.

他說，你知道，我弄錯了。

And then it went from bad to worse.

然後情況就越來越糟了。

We know how it all ended.

我們知道這一切是如何結束的。

"We're all very sad right now at the passing of a friend and a colleague."

"我們現在都對一位朋友和同事的去世感到非常難過。"

"And our thoughts and prayers go out to Susan and the boys at their tremendous loss."

"我們對蘇珊和孩子們的巨大損失表示同情和祈禱。"

Had he been opposed to other types of vaccines in the past?

他過去是否反對過其他類型的疫苗？

Were his or his kids vaccinated with the school vaccines?

他或他的孩子是否接種了學校的疫苗？

He wasn't against anything else?

他不反對其他東西？

No.

沒有。

It's not obvious that Republicans would be more vaccine hesitant.

共和黨人會不會有更多的疫苗猶豫不決，這並不明顯。

Similar percentages of Democrats and Republicans

民主黨人和共和黨人的比例相似

said they get the flu shot “every year” according to a May 2020 poll.

根據2020年5月的一項民意調查，表示他們 "每年 "都會注射流感疫苗。

And in 2019, the Pew Research Center found that

而在2019年，皮尤研究中心發現，

nearly identical shares of Republicans and Democrats

共和黨人和民主黨人的比例幾乎相同

said that the benefits of the vaccinating kids for measles, mumps, and rubella

表示，為孩子們接種麻疹、腮腺炎和風疹疫苗的好處是

outweigh the risks.

勝過風險。

Republicans were slightly less likely to say they should be required

共和黨人認為應該要求他們的可能性略低

but it's nothing like the 30 point gap

但這與30分的差距完全不同

that we see in Covid vaccination rates today.

我們今天在科威德疫苗接種率中看到的。

One way to understand that gap is to consider the vastly different information environments

理解這種差距的一個方法是考慮到巨大的資訊環境

that Republicans and Democrats live in.

共和黨人和民主黨人都生活在其中。

This is a list of news sources trusted by at least 40% of Democrats

這是一份至少有40%的民主黨人信任的新聞來源清單

according to a 2019 survey by Pew.

根據皮尤2019年的一項調查。

"... health officials warn..." "... the highest daily rate..."

"...衛生官員警告說...""......每天的最高比率......"

"... the Covid variant was first reported..."

"......Covid的變體首次被報道......"

"... the latest data from the centers..."

"......中心的最新數據......"

And here's a list of news sources trusted by at least 40% of Republicans.

而這裡有一份至少有40%的共和黨人信任的新聞來源清單。

What this means is that American conservatives are quite exposed to the editorial choices

這意味著，美國的保守派對編輯部的選擇有相當的接觸

of a single network.

的單一網絡。

And on vaccine coverage, that network's choices have been confusing.

而在疫苗覆蓋方面，該網絡的選擇一直很混亂。

"It's a great vaccine. It's a safe vaccine."

"這是一種偉大的疫苗。它是一種安全的疫苗。

"It is something that can keep you out of the hospital."

"這是能讓你遠離醫院的東西。"

"How many people have been killed or injured by the Covid vaccines?

"有多少人因科威德疫苗而死亡或受傷？

Does anyone know the answer?"

有誰知道答案嗎？"

"If your doctor says you're ok for it, get it.

"如果你的醫生說你可以接受，就去做吧。

It will save your life."

它將拯救你的生命。"

"I got my second dose.

"我得到了我的第二劑藥。

I got a horrific pain in my right eye."

我的右眼出現了可怕的疼痛。"

"The vaccine is still working.

"該疫苗仍在發揮作用。

It's still protecting you and those around you."

它仍然在保護你和你周圍的人。"

"Why should you penalize people for not taking a vaccine which doesn't work?"

"為什麼你要懲罰人們不接種一種不起作用的疫苗？"

"The mRNA covid vaccines need to be withdrawn from the market now.

"mRNA covid疫苗現在需要從市場上撤下來。

No one should get them.

沒有人應該得到它們。

No one should get boosted.

沒有人應該得到提升。

No one should get double boosted."

沒有人應該得到雙重提升。"

If we compare the information sources of those who said they'd definitely get vaccinated

如果我們比較那些說一定會接種疫苗的人的資訊來源

with the information sources of those who said they would definitely not get vaccinated

與那些說他們肯定不會接種疫苗的人的資訊來源。

we see that the vaccine-resisters were less likely to consume most news sources

我們看到，反對接種疫苗的人不太可能消費大多數的新聞來源

except for two:

除了兩個。

Fox News and social media.

福克斯新聞和社交媒體。

For 18 hours, I laid in bed dealing with my mortality

有18個小時，我躺在床上處理我的死亡問題

and not knowing which way that was going to go.

並不知道這將會是哪種方式。

And I'm laying in bed going, this is my fault.

而我躺在床上，這是我的錯。

I should have been listening to doctors and nurses and medical professionals

我應該聽從醫生、護士和醫療專家的意見

instead of my political algorithms.

而不是我的政治算法。

And so is it mostly Facebook where you were getting sort of these messages?

那麼，你主要是在Facebook上收到這些資訊的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I saw some of Fox News reports online.

我在網上看到福克斯新聞的一些報道。

But, 90 - 95 percent of what I got was through my algorithms and friends on Facebook.

但是，我所得到的90%-95%是通過我的算法和Facebook上的朋友。

And I can tell you when I started telling people,

而且我可以告訴你，當我開始告訴別人時。

you need to consider this vaccine and you need to stop politicizing this.

你需要考慮這種疫苗，你需要停止將其政治化。

I lost a lot of friends, and the more hardcore you were...

我失去了很多朋友，而你越是鐵桿...

I had some really ugly things said to me.

有人對我說了一些非常難聽的話。

And I had to start blocking people that I've been friends with for years.

我不得不開始屏蔽那些與我有多年交情的人。

The Kaiser Family Foundation found that 64% of unvaccinated people

凱撒家庭基金會發現，64%未接種疫苗的人

believed at least 4 pieces of Covid-19 misinformation, of the 8 that they tested.

在他們測試的8條資訊中，至少有4條相信Covid-19的錯誤信息。

And they found that among those who trusted conservative news outlets

而他們發現，在那些信任保守派新聞機構的人中

belief in misinformation was more common than among those who trusted other sources.

相信錯誤信息的人比相信其他來源的人更普遍。

But we have to remember that this is a correlation.

但我們必須記住，這是一種相關關係。

We don't know if anti-vax content on TV and Facebook

我們不知道電視和Facebook上是否有反疫苗內容

caused people to turn against the vaccine

造成人們對疫苗的反對

or if it was simply pandering to people who had already made up their mind.

還是隻是為了迎合那些已經下定決心的人。

It was probably both.

可能兩者都是。

See, one thing I didn't mention about this chart

看，關於這個圖表，有一件事我沒有提到

is that this data is actually from January 2021.

是，這個數據實際上是2021年1月的數據。

So most of the anti-vaccine content on these platforms hadn't been published.

是以，這些平臺上的大多數反疫苗內容都沒有發表過。

So I went back and searched for the earliest polling I could find.

所以我又回去找了一下我能找到的最早的投票結果。

This is from May of 2020

這是從2020年5月開始的

and it asked people if they would get a hypothetical coronavirus vaccine.

並詢問人們是否會接種假想的冠狀病毒疫苗。

40 percent of Republicans said “definitely not or probably not.”

40%的共和黨人表示 "肯定不會或可能不會"。

And that's pretty much where Republicans are at today, 20 months later.

而這幾乎就是共和黨人在20個月後的今天的情況。

So what explains why a big chunk of Republican voters had already turned against the vaccine

那麼，是什麼解釋了為什麼一大塊共和黨選民已經轉向反對疫苗？

six months before the presidential election

總統選舉前六個月

and nearly a year before the vaccines were even available?

而在疫苗問世的近一年前？

I think the answer is somewhere in here.

我想答案就在這裡面。

Of the 8 false claims polled by the Kaiser Family Foundation

在凱撒家庭基金會調查的8項虛假索賠中

the one most widely believed wasn't about the vaccines at all.

最廣為人知的是根本不是關於疫苗的。

And so of the different pieces of misinformation we tested, the most commonly believed overall

是以，在我們測試的不同的錯誤信息中，最普遍相信的是總體上的

and particularly by Republicans

特別是由共和黨人

was this idea that the government was inflating the number of deaths due to Covid-19.

是這種想法，即政府在誇大因Covid-19而死亡的人數。

"Top US health officials are rejecting President Trump's suggestion that the US coronavirus

"美國高層衛生官員拒絕接受特朗普總統的建議，即美國冠狀病毒

case and death totals are 'fake news'."

案件和死亡總數是'假新聞'"。

"He said a couple of hours ago the number of cases and deaths of the China virus..."

"他說幾個小時前，中國病毒的病例和死亡人數......"

"... are quote 'far exaggerated'."

"......是引用'遠遠誇大'的。"

That claim was based on a misunderstanding of how death certificates work

這種說法是基於對死亡證明工作方式的誤解

but it was extremely potent.

但它的效力極強。

If you've been told not to trust the death count, how do you assess your own risk?

如果你被告知不要相信死亡人數，你如何評估自己的風險？

And why would you take action to protect yourself and your family?

而你為什麼要採取行動來保護自己和家人？

If we compare unvaccinated republicans with their vaccinated counterparts

如果我們將未接種疫苗的共和黨人與接種疫苗的同行進行比較

the biggest difference between them isn't that the unvaccinated ones are younger or

他們之間最大的區別不是未接種疫苗的人更年輕，也不是

more conservative or more rural

更加保守或更多的農村

although they are

雖然他們是

it's the pervasiveness of the belief

是信念的普遍性

that seriousness of the coronavirus is generally exaggerated.

冠狀病毒的嚴重性通常被誇大了。

And that idea that the pandemic has been made into a bigger deal than it really is

而那種認為大流行病被做成了比實際情況更重要的事情的想法

has been an overarching belief for a majority of Republicans.

一直是大多數共和黨人的首要信念。

Even as Covid became one of the leading causes of death in the US

即使在科維德成為美國的主要死亡原因之一時

even as the virus shifted from cities to rural America.

甚至當病毒從城市轉移到美國農村的時候。

And that takes us back to the very first weeks of the pandemic.

這讓我們回到了大流行病的最初幾個星期。

When the virus found a United States under an exceptionally polarizing president

當病毒發現美國在一個異常分化的總統上司下時

and at the start of an election year.

而且是在選舉年的開始。

"We have it under control. It's going to be just fine."

"我們把它控制住了。 它將會很好。"

"Joe Biden calling him the worst possible person to lead our country through virus."

"喬-拜登稱他是上司我們國家通過病毒的最差人選。"

"Well we pretty much shut it down coming in from China."

"好吧，我們幾乎關閉了從中國進來。"

"President Trump has no plan, no urgency, no understanding of the facts."

"特朗普總統沒有計劃，沒有緊迫性，不瞭解事實。"

"If the coronavirus ends up having a real impact on the economy

"如果冠狀病毒最終對經濟產生了真正的影響

it could tip the election to the—"

它可以使選舉傾向於......"

"Democrats and their media cronies have decided to weaponize fear

"民主黨人和他們的媒體親信已經決定將恐懼變成武器

to improve their chances against Trump in November."

以提高他們在11月對抗特朗普的機會。"

In the early stages of the pandemic, you got this very large polarization around things

在大流行病的早期階段，你有這種非常大的兩極分化的事情

like lockdowns, mask wearing, and the severity of the pandemic itself.

如封鎖，戴口罩，以及大流行病本身的嚴重性。

Just how seriously to take this.

只是要如何認真對待這個問題。

"Trump supported anti-lockdown protests..."

"特朗普支持反封鎖的抗議活動......"

"Liberate Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia."

"解放明尼蘇達、密歇根和弗吉尼亞。"

"...states led be Democratic governors."

"......各州上司是民主黨的州長。"

"President Trump without a mask..."

"沒有面具的特朗普總統..."

"Defiance in the face of adversity..."

"面對逆境的反抗......"

"Joe Biden wearing one."

"喬-拜登穿了一件。"

"...an image of trepidation, even fear."

"......一種惶恐不安的形象，甚至是恐懼。"

"Making for a splitscreen campaign moment."

"製作分屏運動的時刻"。

And it seems that rank and file Republicans, largely on their own, figured out that if

似乎共和黨人在很大程度上是靠自己的力量發現，如果

you don't take the pandemic seriously, why would you get vaccinated?

你不認真對待大流行病，為什麼要接種疫苗？

You know the people telling you to do it, they're not trustworthy.

你知道那些叫你做的人，他們是不值得信任的。

And so, you know, flash forward to spring of 2021 and you get this weird paradox where

所以，你知道的，閃到2021年的春天，你會發現這個奇怪的悖論，即

most Republican politicians are vaccinated

大多數共和黨的政治家都接種了疫苗

but they're saying stuff at the same time to cater to

但他們同時也在說一些東西來迎合

to anti-vaccine sentiment in their base

對其基礎的反疫苗情緒的影響

and now there's real political downside to promoting vaccination for a lot of these folks.

而現在，對這些人中的很多人來說，推廣疫苗接種有真正的政治弊端。

"...your freedoms, I do.

"......你的自由，我願意。

You have to do what you have to do."

你必須做你必須做的事。"

"But! I recommend take the vaccines."

"但是！我建議服用疫苗。"

"I did it. It's good."

"我做到了。這很好。"

"Take the vaccines."

"服用疫苗"。

"But you got — no that's okay, that's alright."

"但你有--不，沒關係，沒關係。"

"You've got your freedoms..."

"你已經有了你的自由......"

Let me tell you how I make sense of what happened to your brother

讓我告訴你我是如何理解發生在你哥哥身上的事情的

and I want to get your reaction.

我想知道你的反應。

I see Phil looking at the data

我看到菲爾在看數據

concluding that his risk of dying from Covid was low.

結論是他死於科維德的風險很低。

But I think his brain was sort of pushed in the direction of that conclusion by signals

但我認為他的大腦被信號推到了這個結論的方向上。

that were sent really early on in the pandemic by Trump and Fox and others that

特朗普和福克斯等人在大流行的早期就發出了這樣的資訊，即

Republicans kind of think this coronavirus is overblown.

共和黨人有點認為這種冠狀病毒被誇大了。

The polarization starts there.

兩極分化從這裡開始。