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  • Our home is burning. Rapid climate  change is destabilizing our world.  

    我們的家園在燃燒,

  • It seems our emissions will not fall quickly  enough to avoid runaway warming and we may  

    快速的氣候變遷正在使我們的世界失衡。

  • soon hit tipping points that will lead to the  collapse of ecosystems and our civilization.

    目前看來我們的排放量不會馬上就下降到可以避免地球暖化失控,

  • While scientists, activists and much  of the younger generation urge action,  

    且我們很快就會達到

  • it appears most politicians are not  committed to do anything meaningful  

    使生態系統

  • while the fossil fuel industry still works  actively against change. It seems humanity  

    與我們的文明崩潰的臨界點。

  • can’t overcome its greed and obsession with short  term profit and personal gain to save itself.

    在此同時,科學家、社運參與者、

  • And so for many the future looks grim and  hopeless. Young people feel particularly  

    以及許多年輕世代發起運動,

  • anxious and depressed. Instead of looking  ahead to a lifetime of opportunity they  

    當局者卻似乎不願承諾做出有意義的事

  • wonder if they will even have a future or  if they should bring kids into this world.  

    而化石燃料工業仍然一如以往活躍,

  • It’s an age of doom and hopelessness and  giving up seems the only sensible thing to do.

    就宛如人類終究無法藉由克服對短期獲益和個人所得的貪婪與

  • But that’s not true. You are not  doomed. Humanity is not doomed.  

    執著以自救。

  • Despite the seriousness of the situation, for  years positive trends have accumulated and there  

    目前對許多人來說,未來看似嚴峻、希望渺茫,

  • is finally some good news and a clear path towards  our collective climate goals. Welcome to our Ted  

    年輕人尤其感到焦慮與沮喪。

  • talk, please watch this video to the endcheck  out our detailed sources afterwards to learn more.

    相對於展望充滿機運的一生

  • Ok! Let’s start with the scariest things.

    他們更疑惑是否能擁有未來、或是否應該生育子女。

  • Canceling the Apocalypse

    這是一個毀滅而毫無希望的時代,而放棄也許是唯一一個理性的選擇

  • Some of the most widely shared stories about  Climate Change are that it is an existential  

    但其實,

  • threatthe end of human civilization and  maybe even our own extinction event. And  

    這並不是真的!

  • that it is basically unavoidable nowBut what does science actually say?

    你不會完蛋,

  • As of 2022 the global average temperature  

    人類文明

  • has risen 1.2 degrees celsius  compared to preindustrial times.  

    也不會完蛋!

  • Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees was the  most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement  

    儘管目前的狀況

  • but we are not likely to meet it. Already with the  warming we have today, hot places will get hotter,  

    看似病入膏肓,

  • wet places wetter and the risk and strength of  extreme weather events increase significantly.

    多年來的正向潮流有所積累,

  • Warming beyond 2 degrees makes all of these  extremes more extreme, extreme weather events  

    且已經有一些好消息

  • more common with more ecosystems under  major pressure. Some will not survive.

    、以及明確通往我們全體的氣候目標。

  • At 3 degrees significant parts of earthespecially in developing countries,  

    歡迎來到我們的TED演講!

  • might become unable to feed their populationsHeat waves will become a major global issue.  

    請將影片看到最後,並瀏覽我們資料來源的詳細內容

  • Large scale natural systems will break  down. The scale and frequency of hurricanes,  

    以取得更多資訊。

  • fires and droughts will further increase and cause  trillions in damage. Poor regions and subsistence  

    好了,

  • farmers will be hit the hardest. Hundreds of  millions of people will need to leave their homes.

    我們先從最恐怖的事情

  • In the 4-8 degree range the apocalypse begins  – the hothouse earth, where things change  

    開始講吧!

  • so quickly, that it may become unable  to support our large human population  

    把末日取消掉

  • and billions may perish, leaving  the rest on a hostile alien planet.  

    一些有關氣候變遷

  • A decade ago, for lack of action and perspectivemany scientists assumed a 4+ degree world was our  

    最廣為流傳的故事

  • future and a lot of public communication  focused on exactly this future path.  

    在講述這是攸關存亡的威脅、

  • Luckily, it's much less likely that this  version of the apocalypse will come to pass.

    人類文明的盡頭、

  • If current climate policies stagnate, were  likely to end up with warming 3 °C by 2100.  

    也可能是人類的種族滅絕事件,

  • Which is scary and tragic and far from acceptableBut this is actually good newshow? In the last  

    這目前看來不可避免!

  • decade, we have seen enough progress that most  scientists now think that we have likely avoided  

    但事實上,科學研究告訴我們甚麼呢?

  • apocalyptic climate change. Although substantial  risk still remains, we can pretty confidently say  

    截至 2022 年,

  • that humanity isn’t going anywhere. Civilization  might have to change, but it will endure.

    全球平均氣溫

  • Which begs the question: What has changed over  the last ten years and is this really good news?

    與尚未工業化時相比上升攝氏1.2度;

  • ## The Invisible Shift

    將溫度上升限制在1.5度之內

  • You probably know this story: The  last decade has been an immense  

    是巴黎協定中最具野心的一條目標,但我們似乎無法完成這項目標。

  • failure for climate policies around the world.  

    地球暖化事以至此,升溫的地方變得更熱、潮濕的地方變得更濕,

  • Instead of passing comprehensive, binding  bills that would meaningfully reduce emissions  

    而極端氣候事件發生的風險和力度也會遽增,

  • we mostly did: nothing. A lost decade with one  negative record after another. And this story  

    全球升溫超過攝氏2度會使這些極端更趨極端,

  • is true and it is one reason why so many people  are giving up. But it is not the whole picture.

    極端氣候事件更加常見,以致整個生態系承受龐大壓力。

  • Despite the lack of climate policies and ongoing  

    有些生命,會無法倖存。

  • lobbying and misinformation campaigns  from the fossil fuel industries,  

    全球升溫至攝氏3度時,

  • there was a lot of progress. Let us go back  20 years to see why today is so different:

    全球重要地區,尤其是開發中國家,

  • Between 2000 and 2010, greenhouse  gas emissions had grown by 24%,  

    當地人口將會無法溫飽,

  • three times as much as the increase in the  previous decade. Subsidies for fossil fuels  

    熱浪將會變成全球主要議題。

  • aimed at promoting economic growth, caused  a colossal increase in their consumption.  

    大規模的自然系統會崩潰,

  • For emerging countries like China and  India coal was the cheapest fuel for growth  

    颶風、火災、與乾旱的規模和頻率將大增,

  • while rich countries showed little  interest in changing their ways.

    並造成數不清的危害。

  • In 2010, many people expected these trends  to continue. Instead of decreasing fossil  

    貧困區域的人與僅供自給的農民會受到最大的衝擊。

  • fuel use its consumption would rise. The next  decade turned out to be very different though.

    不可勝計的人們

  • First of all, coal burning in emerging countries  like India has been slowed down or leveled off,  

    被迫離開家園。

  • like in China. And it has plummeted  in rich countries like the UK and US.  

    全球溫度落於4-8度間,末日就開始了

  • Since 2015 three-quarters of planned coal  plants have been canceled and 44 countries  

    地球變成溫室,

  • have committed to stop building them. Ten years  ago that would have seemed like wishful thinking,  

    事情的變化及其快速,以至於地球無法再乘載龐大的人口數,

  • but today we can say with confidence: Coal  is dying. It is just not competitive anymore.  

    數十億人口將會消亡,剩餘的人們則繼續活在不友善的陌生星球。

  • Because technologies we thought would remain  expensive matured rapidly instead. Renewable  

    在十年前,有鑑於事態缺乏行動與展望,

  • electricity has shown explosive progress. Inmere decade wind energy got three times cheaper.  

    科學家們假定了一個未來攝氏4度以上的世界,

  • Solar electricity is now ten times cheaperCheaper than coal or any other fossil-fuel burning  

    並有許多針對這個未來走向的公開對話,

  • power plant, despite the massive subsidies and  global infrastructure propping up fossil fuels.

    幸運的是,末日版本的未來發生的可能要低得多了!

  • 25 times more solar and nearly 5 times more wind  electricity is produced today compared with ten  

    如若現行的氣候政策停滯不前,我們預計截至2100年時

  • years ago, which is of course not nearly enoughOne of the biggest obstacles is the variability  

    會達到暖化攝氏3度

  • of their power output. Renewables need a lot of  energy storage to be a reliable power source,  

    這似乎很可怕、猶如悲劇

  • like expensive batteries. Amazingly battery  prices have decreased by 97% in the past 30 years,  

    且難以接受。

  • 60% in the last decade alonewhich will serve  all kinds of green technology like electric cars.

    不過,這其實是一個好消息!但為什麼呢?

  • You might say, well that’s great but  didn’t Kurzgesagt’s last climate video  

    在近十年中,

  • say that while wind and solar are nice, we need  nothing less than a fundamental transition of  

    我們已經見證了長足的進展,所以科學家們現在認為我們極可能

  • our global industrial system? Yes but luckily  the shift goes beyond just the energy sector.  

    規避末日般的氣候變遷。

  • Throughout the economy people are working on  improving current technology to lower emissions.

    儘管巨大的風險依然存在,我們仍能很自信地說:人類將不會毀滅。

  • Were rapidly replacing old incandescent light  bulbs with LEDs that are ten times more efficient.  

    文明可能會更迭,

  • In 2020 about 7 out of 10 new  cars in Norway were electric  

    但能克服變故。

  • or hybridIn 2021 it was already  8 out of 10. And the list goes on,  

    這就引出了一個問題:

  • from electric heating and better insulation  to ships traveling at half speed to save fuel.

    在過去十年中,

  • Wherever you look you find scientists,  

    有了哪些改變、

  • engineers and entrepreneurs trying to  solve some aspect of climate change.  

    而那些改變是好消息嗎?

  • Enormous amounts of human ingenuity are  being brought to bear on this problem  

    看不見的轉變

  • with more and more people deciding to prioritize  preventing rapid climate change. Solutions for  

    你大概聽過這則故事:

  • low-carbon production of cement, electronics and  steel, and innovations like artificial meat and  

    過去十年,全球的氣候政策

  • carbon capture are in the works. The more of  these technologies we deploy; the cheaper new  

    就是個巨大的失敗,

  • and better technology gets. The cheaper they  get, the more people use them. And so on.

    比起傳遞想法,有約束力的法案更能有實質意義上地減少排放量

  • We can see the impact already:  

    只是我們大多時候...甚麼都沒做。

  • The domestic CO2 output of rich countries  is falling without a major recession.  

    有負面紀錄、蹉跎的十年一個接著一個

  • Since the year 2000, the EU as a whole shows a  21% decrease, Italy 28%, the UK 35%, Denmark 43%.

    這不僅是一個真實故事,也是為什麼這麼多人放棄了。

  • But the best news may be that emissions are no  longer necessarily coupled with economic growth.  

    然而,這還不是事情的全貌!

  • In the past this was an inconvenient truth  – to get richer, you had to emit more. Which  

    就算缺乏氣候政策

  • led to fierce arguments between developing  and developed countries about the fairness  

    及進行中的遊說、來自化石能源工業的錯誤資訊活動,

  • of reducing emissions while their populations  were still poor. But in the last decade we have  

    我們依然有很大的進步。

  • seen that it IS possible to increase prosperity  without increasing emissions. Emissions in the  

    讓我們回顧20年前

  • Czech Republic dropped 13% while their GDP grew  by 27%! France reduced their CO2 emissions by 14%  

    來看看,

  • while increasing GDP by 15%! Romania saw  an 8% decrease and 35% growth! And even the  

    為何時至今日有這麼大的不同?

  • largest economy on earth - the USA - decreased  emissions by 4% while growing their GDP by 26%!

    在2000到2010年間,

  • Some of you may call this a numbers trick. That  rich countries are just exporting emissions to  

    溫室氣體的成長到24%,

  • poorer nations by moving the dirty parts of  their economies like manufacturing. But even  

    是過往十年成長的三倍之多,

  • when we account for all of our imported goodsthe numbers still look positive! It’s no longer  

    針對化石燃料的政府補助意在推動經濟成長,

  • a matter of having to choose between prosperity  and the climate as it seemed to be a decade ago.

    卻造成燃料的消耗劇增。

  • Developing countries will profit from  that because as rich countries pay for  

    像中國或印度這樣的發展中國家,煤炭是用以推動成長最便宜的能源。

  • the expensive development of green technologiesthey can adopt them more cheaply. They can skip  

    與此同時富裕國家則不打算改變固有的做法。

  • most of the high emission phase that  today's rich countries went through.  

    在2010年時,多數人認為這樣的趨勢將會繼續,

  • We are at the point where not  decarbonizing is a bad business decision.

    化石燃料的使用比起下降,更傾向增加。

  • And we haven’t even really talked  about solutions like carbon capture.  

    不過,下一個十年的結果卻是迥然不同。

  • In 2000 it didn't really exist. In 2022 that  technology does exist and costs around $600 to  

    首先,新興發展國家如印度,

  • remove one ton of CO2 from the atmosphere. As  investment pours in and the technology matures  

    燃燒的煤炭量趨緩、

  • and begins to scale, it is likely that these  costs will plummet over the next few decades.

    或像中國那樣趨於穩定;

  • So everything's fine then? Well let us not get  carried away here - all of these processes are  

    在富裕國家則呈現暴跌,

  • great but not nearly fast enough. We are still  doing way too little and technology will not  

    如英國和美國。

  • magically solve everything. We need to use  fewer resources and use them longer, design  

    自2015起,

  • consumer goods that are repairable and durable  and decrease our energy requirements. We need  

    四分之三的煤炭發電廠被取消、且有44個國家已經承諾不再建造。

  • much better infrastructure, agriculture  and cities. It will still be hard work,  

    在十年前這看似是一廂情願的想法,

  • especially to get the right  policies passed and enacted.

    但如今我們能很有自信的說:

  • But for the first time ever,  

    煤炭玩完了。

  • there are a few trendlines pointing  solidly in the right direction.

    就只是因為煤炭不再具有競爭力,

  • And now imagineIf all of this was achieved  without proper financial and political support  

    因為那些我們認為總是很昂貴的科技其實成熟得相當快速。

  • and despite fossil fuel lobbying  – just think what humanity can do  

    可再生電力已呈現爆炸性的進展。

  • when climate change finally gets the  political attention and funding it needs.

    在僅僅十年之內,

  • So is it ok to feel hopeful again? The  situation is still dire and serious,  

    風力發電

  • so what is the point of focusing  on this side of the story?

    便宜了三倍;

  • The Trap of Hopelessness

    太陽能發電則便宜了十倍,

  • Climate change can feel overwhelming and  make your future seem bleak. The sadness  

    比起煤炭發電或其他任何化石燃料發電還要便宜,儘管補助金額可觀、

  • and hopelessness that many people feel is real  and very destructive because it causes apathy.

    儘管全球基礎建設也還是支持化石燃料。

  • Apathy that is only serving the fossil  fuel industry that is still delaying  

    到目前為止,太陽能及風力發電產出量已經分別比十年前多出25倍及5倍,

  • change however it can. In a sense  they have weaponized hopelessness.  

    但當然這樣還遠遠不夠,

  • We are now in phase 4 in the public  debate about rapid climate change action:

    最大的阻礙之一在於其能量輸出的多元性。

  • Phase 1 was: Climate Change is not real.

    再生能源需要非常多的能量儲備才能是一個可靠的能量來源,就像昂貴的電池一般。

  • Phase 2 was: Climate Change is  real but not caused by humans.

    神奇的是,

  • Phase 3 was: Climate Change may be  caused by humans but it’s not that bad.

    電池的價格在過去30年間已經下降了97%;

  • Phase 4 is: Climate Change is no longer avoidableWe are doomed and it doesn’t matter what we do.

    單看過去十年間就下降了60%--這樣的量足以供應所有種類的綠能科技,比如電動車。

  • If we want the world to change, we first need  to believe that change is possible. And we have  

    你可能會說:嗯~這樣很棒呀,但Kurzgesagt上一篇關於氣候的影片

  • an abundance of evidence that it is. Changes  to our industrial system are gaining momentum,  

    不是說:雖然風力和太陽能很棒,但其實我們需要的是全球產業體系根本上的轉變嗎?

  • technology gets better and cheaper, climate change  has become a key issue in most free elections.  

    是這樣沒錯,但幸運地,變革不僅僅局限於能源這一塊

  • As more and more younger people  move into influential positions,  

    在整個經濟之中,人類總是致力於改善現有科技以減少排放量:

  • they prioritize climate change and work on  new solutions. In 2022 most governments not  

    我們迅速地將舊式白熾燈

  • only acknowledge it but set their own net zero  goalsin democratic and autocratic countries.  

    替換為有十倍發光效率發光二極管(LED燈);

  • The results of years of fighting a steep  uphill battle are now clearly visible. The  

    在2020年,

  • pressure needs to keep increasing, to make sure  that the promises made today are actually kept!

    挪威每十輛車就有七輛是電動車或油電混合車;

  • Climate doomerism is the equivalent of giving up  even though you can still prevent not just the  

    在2021年

  • worst case but also mitigate most of the bad  things, make changes in time to adapt better  

    已經發展至十輛車就有八輛。

  • and prevent the poorest from suffering. That is  why hopelessness and apathy are so dangerous.

    像這樣的例子還很多:

  • If the last, in many ways wasted  decade, has shown anything,  

    從電暖系統與更佳的房屋隔熱層、

  • then it’s that progress is being made and that  dire scenarios are just predictionsnot our  

    到船隻使用半速行駛以減少燃料。

  • sealed fate. As of 2022, based on current global  policies, we will end up in a 3 degrees world.  

    不管從哪個角度看,你都會看到科學家、工程師及企業家正在嘗試解決不同面向的氣候變遷問題。

  • Now it is our job to yet again prove the  predictions wrongdespite how serious and  

    可觀的人類創新思維持續的產出,就為了解決這道疑難,

  • urgent things are. To turn that 3 degrees into a  2 degrees and then see where we can go from there.

    並伴隨愈來愈多人決定將快速氣候變遷的預防

  • For that we need hope. And we hope we gave you  that today, at least a little. That you feel  

    擺在優先順位。

  • that things are serious but also that you have  a future. That you can have kids without dooming  

    許多低碳水泥及人造肉、

  • them or the world. That taking action today is  worth it. And that despite powerful industries  

    低碳電子產品與鋼鐵的解方;

  • doing everything to delay it, society is changingIf you need a more concrete roadmap of what you  

    人造肉、碳捕集技術這樣的發明都正處進行式。

  • can do personallywe are working on a follow  up video to talk about that in greater detail.

    我們展開愈多這樣的科技,

  • Doomerism, inactivity and weaponized hopelessness  

    就將收穫愈便宜、愈好的科技;

  • are the only trump cards left for the powers  that don’t want change. Don’t let them win.

    當這些科技愈加便宜,

  • We are still excited about the futureAnd we think one of the best things  

    就會有愈多人使用。

  • you can do to keep your optimism and  curiosity up is to learn new things.  

    並一再循環。

  • If you don’t know where to start, our friends  from Brilliant.org have got you covered.

    其實我們已經可以看到這樣的影響了:

  • Brilliant makes math and science accessible  and fun with a hands-on approach.  

    即使富裕國家的全國碳排放量降低,也不致造成嚴重經濟衰退。

  • More than 60 interactive courses  likeThe joy of problem solvingor  

    自2000年起,

  • Scientific thinkinggive you the tools to crack  problems in math, science and computer science  

    歐盟國家全體減少了21%碳排放,其中:

  • that are all designed to get your intuition  going and give you plenty of aha-experience.

    義大利28%、

  • Lessons will surprise you with  storytelling, code-writing tasks and  

    英國45%、丹麥43%。

  • interactive challengesbasically using whatever  keeps you interested and entertained. All the  

    不過,最讚的消息大概是:碳排放從此不再非要與經濟成長並行相長。

  • content is interactive: instead of just reading  and listening to explanations, you drag and drop,  

    這在過去是一個不方便的事實,

  • manipulate shapes and diagrams, make  selections and answer questions.  

    畢竟如果想變更有錢,

  • This way you learn something almost without  you noticing it. And tiny step by step youll  

    就要排放更多。

  • build up your long-term understanding of  science and get closer to your STEM goals.

    也因為如此,

  • To start looking at the world of science from  a different perspective, go to Brilliant.org  

    在開發中國家與已開發國家之間

  • SlashNutshell and sign up for free. And  there’s an extra perk for kurzgesagt viewers:  

    引發了激烈爭端、攸關在人民仍然貧困的情況下減少碳排放量的公平性。

  • the first 200 people to use the link  get 20% off their annual membership,  

    然而,在過去十年,我們已經見識到,不增加碳排放量也可能促進繁榮。

  • which unlocks all of Brilliant’s courses  in math, science, and computer science.

    在捷克,碳排放量下降13%,

  • At kurzgesagt we love to create  things that seem impossible at  

    GDP(國內生產總值)卻成長了27%;

  • firstBrilliant can help you  acquire the skills to do that.

    而法國碳排放量下降14%,

Our home is burning. Rapid climate  change is destabilizing our world.  

我們的家園在燃燒,

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