It seems our emissions will not fall quickly  enough to avoid runaway warming and we may  

快速的氣候變遷正在使我們的世界失衡。

soon hit tipping points that will lead to the  collapse of ecosystems and our civilization.

目前看來我們的排放量不會馬上就下降到可以避免地球暖化失控，

While scientists, activists and much  of the younger generation urge action,  

且我們很快就會達到

it appears most politicians are not  committed to do anything meaningful  

使生態系統

while the fossil fuel industry still works  actively against change. It seems humanity  

與我們的文明崩潰的臨界點。

can’t overcome its greed and obsession with short  term profit and personal gain to save itself.

在此同時，科學家、社運參與者、

And so for many the future looks grim and  hopeless. Young people feel particularly  

以及許多年輕世代發起運動，

anxious and depressed. Instead of looking  ahead to a lifetime of opportunity they  

當局者卻似乎不願承諾做出有意義的事

wonder if they will even have a future or  if they should bring kids into this world.  

而化石燃料工業仍然一如以往活躍，

It’s an age of doom and hopelessness and  giving up seems the only sensible thing to do.

就宛如人類終究無法藉由克服對短期獲益和個人所得的貪婪與

But that’s not true. You are not  doomed. Humanity is not doomed.  

執著以自救。

Despite the seriousness of the situation, for  years positive trends have accumulated and there  

目前對許多人來說，未來看似嚴峻、希望渺茫，

is finally some good news and a clear path towards  our collective climate goals. Welcome to our Ted  

年輕人尤其感到焦慮與沮喪。

talk, please watch this video to the end – check  out our detailed sources afterwards to learn more.

相對於展望充滿機運的一生

Ok! Let’s start with the scariest things.

他們更疑惑是否能擁有未來、或是否應該生育子女。

Canceling the Apocalypse

這是一個毀滅而毫無希望的時代，而放棄也許是唯一一個理性的選擇

Some of the most widely shared stories about  Climate Change are that it is an existential  

但其實，

threat – the end of human civilization and  maybe even our own extinction event. And  

這並不是真的！

that it is basically unavoidable now.  But what does science actually say?

你不會完蛋，

As of 2022 the global average temperature  

人類文明

has risen 1.2 degrees celsius  compared to preindustrial times.  

也不會完蛋！

Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees was the  most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement  

儘管目前的狀況

but we are not likely to meet it. Already with the  warming we have today, hot places will get hotter,  

看似病入膏肓，

wet places wetter and the risk and strength of  extreme weather events increase significantly.

多年來的正向潮流有所積累，

Warming beyond 2 degrees makes all of these  extremes more extreme, extreme weather events  

且已經有一些好消息

more common with more ecosystems under  major pressure. Some will not survive.

、以及明確通往我們全體的氣候目標。

At 3 degrees significant parts of earth,  especially in developing countries,  

歡迎來到我們的TED演講！

might become unable to feed their populations.  Heat waves will become a major global issue.  

請將影片看到最後，並瀏覽我們資料來源的詳細內容

Large scale natural systems will break  down. The scale and frequency of hurricanes,  

以取得更多資訊。

fires and droughts will further increase and cause  trillions in damage. Poor regions and subsistence  

好了，

farmers will be hit the hardest. Hundreds of  millions of people will need to leave their homes.

我們先從最恐怖的事情

In the 4-8 degree range the apocalypse begins  – the hothouse earth, where things change  

開始講吧！

so quickly, that it may become unable  to support our large human population  

把末日取消掉

and billions may perish, leaving  the rest on a hostile alien planet.  

一些有關氣候變遷

A decade ago, for lack of action and perspective,  many scientists assumed a 4+ degree world was our  

最廣為流傳的故事

future and a lot of public communication  focused on exactly this future path.  

在講述這是攸關存亡的威脅、

Luckily, it's much less likely that this  version of the apocalypse will come to pass.

人類文明的盡頭、

If current climate policies stagnate, we’re  likely to end up with warming 3 °C by 2100.  

也可能是人類的種族滅絕事件，

Which is scary and tragic and far from acceptable.  But this is actually good news – how? In the last  

這目前看來不可避免！

decade, we have seen enough progress that most  scientists now think that we have likely avoided  

但事實上，科學研究告訴我們甚麼呢？

apocalyptic climate change. Although substantial  risk still remains, we can pretty confidently say  

截至 2022 年，

that humanity isn’t going anywhere. Civilization  might have to change, but it will endure.

全球平均氣溫

Which begs the question: What has changed over  the last ten years and is this really good news?

與尚未工業化時相比上升攝氏1.2度；

## The Invisible Shift

將溫度上升限制在1.5度之內

You probably know this story: The  last decade has been an immense  

是巴黎協定中最具野心的一條目標，但我們似乎無法完成這項目標。

failure for climate policies around the world.  

地球暖化事以至此，升溫的地方變得更熱、潮濕的地方變得更濕，

Instead of passing comprehensive, binding  bills that would meaningfully reduce emissions  

而極端氣候事件發生的風險和力度也會遽增，

we mostly did: nothing. A lost decade with one  negative record after another. And this story  

全球升溫超過攝氏2度會使這些極端更趨極端，

is true and it is one reason why so many people  are giving up. But it is not the whole picture.

極端氣候事件更加常見，以致整個生態系承受龐大壓力。

Despite the lack of climate policies and ongoing  

有些生命，會無法倖存。

lobbying and misinformation campaigns  from the fossil fuel industries,  

全球升溫至攝氏3度時，

there was a lot of progress. Let us go back  20 years to see why today is so different:

全球重要地區，尤其是開發中國家，

Between 2000 and 2010, greenhouse  gas emissions had grown by 24%,  

當地人口將會無法溫飽，

three times as much as the increase in the  previous decade. Subsidies for fossil fuels  

熱浪將會變成全球主要議題。

aimed at promoting economic growth, caused  a colossal increase in their consumption.  

大規模的自然系統會崩潰，

For emerging countries like China and  India coal was the cheapest fuel for growth  

颶風、火災、與乾旱的規模和頻率將大增，

while rich countries showed little  interest in changing their ways.

並造成數不清的危害。

In 2010, many people expected these trends  to continue. Instead of decreasing fossil  

貧困區域的人與僅供自給的農民會受到最大的衝擊。

fuel use its consumption would rise. The next  decade turned out to be very different though.

不可勝計的人們

First of all, coal burning in emerging countries  like India has been slowed down or leveled off,  

被迫離開家園。

like in China. And it has plummeted  in rich countries like the UK and US.  

全球溫度落於4-8度間，末日就開始了

Since 2015 three-quarters of planned coal  plants have been canceled and 44 countries  

地球變成溫室，

have committed to stop building them. Ten years  ago that would have seemed like wishful thinking,  

事情的變化及其快速，以至於地球無法再乘載龐大的人口數，

but today we can say with confidence: Coal  is dying. It is just not competitive anymore.  

數十億人口將會消亡，剩餘的人們則繼續活在不友善的陌生星球。

Because technologies we thought would remain  expensive matured rapidly instead. Renewable  

在十年前，有鑑於事態缺乏行動與展望，

electricity has shown explosive progress. In a  mere decade wind energy got three times cheaper.  

科學家們假定了一個未來攝氏4度以上的世界，

Solar electricity is now ten times cheaper!  Cheaper than coal or any other fossil-fuel burning  

並有許多針對這個未來走向的公開對話，

power plant, despite the massive subsidies and  global infrastructure propping up fossil fuels.

幸運的是，末日版本的未來發生的可能要低得多了！

25 times more solar and nearly 5 times more wind  electricity is produced today compared with ten  

如若現行的氣候政策停滯不前，我們預計截至2100年時

years ago, which is of course not nearly enough.  One of the biggest obstacles is the variability  

會達到暖化攝氏3度

of their power output. Renewables need a lot of  energy storage to be a reliable power source,  

這似乎很可怕、猶如悲劇

like expensive batteries. Amazingly battery  prices have decreased by 97% in the past 30 years,  

且難以接受。

60% in the last decade alone – which will serve  all kinds of green technology like electric cars.

不過，這其實是一個好消息！但為什麼呢？

You might say, well that’s great but  didn’t Kurzgesagt’s last climate video  

在近十年中，

say that while wind and solar are nice, we need  nothing less than a fundamental transition of  

我們已經見證了長足的進展，所以科學家們現在認為我們極可能

our global industrial system? Yes but luckily  the shift goes beyond just the energy sector.  

規避末日般的氣候變遷。

Throughout the economy people are working on  improving current technology to lower emissions.

儘管巨大的風險依然存在，我們仍能很自信地說：人類將不會毀滅。

We’re rapidly replacing old incandescent light  bulbs with LEDs that are ten times more efficient.  

文明可能會更迭，

In 2020 about 7 out of 10 new  cars in Norway were electric  

但能克服變故。

or hybrid – In 2021 it was already  8 out of 10. And the list goes on,  

這就引出了一個問題：

from electric heating and better insulation  to ships traveling at half speed to save fuel.

在過去十年中，

Wherever you look you find scientists,  

有了哪些改變、

engineers and entrepreneurs trying to  solve some aspect of climate change.  

而那些改變是好消息嗎？

Enormous amounts of human ingenuity are  being brought to bear on this problem  

看不見的轉變

with more and more people deciding to prioritize  preventing rapid climate change. Solutions for  

你大概聽過這則故事：

low-carbon production of cement, electronics and  steel, and innovations like artificial meat and  

過去十年，全球的氣候政策

carbon capture are in the works. The more of  these technologies we deploy; the cheaper new  

就是個巨大的失敗，

and better technology gets. The cheaper they  get, the more people use them. And so on.

比起傳遞想法，有約束力的法案更能有實質意義上地減少排放量

We can see the impact already:  

只是我們大多時候...甚麼都沒做。

The domestic CO2 output of rich countries  is falling without a major recession.  

有負面紀錄、蹉跎的十年一個接著一個

Since the year 2000, the EU as a whole shows a  21% decrease, Italy 28%, the UK 35%, Denmark 43%.

這不僅是一個真實故事，也是為什麼這麼多人放棄了。

But the best news may be that emissions are no  longer necessarily coupled with economic growth.  

然而，這還不是事情的全貌！

In the past this was an inconvenient truth  – to get richer, you had to emit more. Which  

就算缺乏氣候政策

led to fierce arguments between developing  and developed countries about the fairness  

及進行中的遊說、來自化石能源工業的錯誤資訊活動，

of reducing emissions while their populations  were still poor. But in the last decade we have  

我們依然有很大的進步。

seen that it IS possible to increase prosperity  without increasing emissions. Emissions in the  

讓我們回顧20年前

Czech Republic dropped 13% while their GDP grew  by 27%! France reduced their CO2 emissions by 14%  

來看看，

while increasing GDP by 15%! Romania saw  an 8% decrease and 35% growth! And even the  

為何時至今日有這麼大的不同？

largest economy on earth - the USA - decreased  emissions by 4% while growing their GDP by 26%!

在2000到2010年間，

Some of you may call this a numbers trick. That  rich countries are just exporting emissions to  

溫室氣體的成長到24%，

poorer nations by moving the dirty parts of  their economies like manufacturing. But even  

是過往十年成長的三倍之多，

when we account for all of our imported goods,  the numbers still look positive! It’s no longer  

針對化石燃料的政府補助意在推動經濟成長，

a matter of having to choose between prosperity  and the climate as it seemed to be a decade ago.

卻造成燃料的消耗劇增。

Developing countries will profit from  that because as rich countries pay for  

像中國或印度這樣的發展中國家，煤炭是用以推動成長最便宜的能源。

the expensive development of green technologies,  they can adopt them more cheaply. They can skip  

與此同時富裕國家則不打算改變固有的做法。

most of the high emission phase that  today's rich countries went through.  

在2010年時，多數人認為這樣的趨勢將會繼續，

We are at the point where not  decarbonizing is a bad business decision.

化石燃料的使用比起下降，更傾向增加。

And we haven’t even really talked  about solutions like carbon capture.  

不過，下一個十年的結果卻是迥然不同。

In 2000 it didn't really exist. In 2022 that  technology does exist and costs around $600 to  

首先，新興發展國家如印度，

remove one ton of CO2 from the atmosphere. As  investment pours in and the technology matures  

燃燒的煤炭量趨緩、

and begins to scale, it is likely that these  costs will plummet over the next few decades.

或像中國那樣趨於穩定；

So everything's fine then? Well let us not get  carried away here - all of these processes are  

在富裕國家則呈現暴跌，

great but not nearly fast enough. We are still  doing way too little and technology will not  

如英國和美國。

magically solve everything. We need to use  fewer resources and use them longer, design  

自2015起，

consumer goods that are repairable and durable  and decrease our energy requirements. We need  

四分之三的煤炭發電廠被取消、且有44個國家已經承諾不再建造。

much better infrastructure, agriculture  and cities. It will still be hard work,  

在十年前這看似是一廂情願的想法，

especially to get the right  policies passed and enacted.

但如今我們能很有自信的說：

But for the first time ever,  

煤炭玩完了。

there are a few trendlines pointing  solidly in the right direction.

就只是因為煤炭不再具有競爭力，

And now imagine – If all of this was achieved  without proper financial and political support  

因為那些我們認為總是很昂貴的科技其實成熟得相當快速。

and despite fossil fuel lobbying  – just think what humanity can do  

可再生電力已呈現爆炸性的進展。

when climate change finally gets the  political attention and funding it needs.

在僅僅十年之內，

So is it ok to feel hopeful again? The  situation is still dire and serious,  

風力發電

so what is the point of focusing  on this side of the story?

便宜了三倍；

The Trap of Hopelessness

太陽能發電則便宜了十倍，

Climate change can feel overwhelming and  make your future seem bleak. The sadness  

比起煤炭發電或其他任何化石燃料發電還要便宜，儘管補助金額可觀、

and hopelessness that many people feel is real  and very destructive because it causes apathy.

儘管全球基礎建設也還是支持化石燃料。

Apathy that is only serving the fossil  fuel industry that is still delaying  

到目前為止，太陽能及風力發電產出量已經分別比十年前多出25倍及5倍，

change however it can. In a sense  they have weaponized hopelessness.  

但當然這樣還遠遠不夠，

We are now in phase 4 in the public  debate about rapid climate change action:

最大的阻礙之一在於其能量輸出的多元性。

Phase 1 was: Climate Change is not real.

再生能源需要非常多的能量儲備才能是一個可靠的能量來源，就像昂貴的電池一般。

Phase 2 was: Climate Change is  real but not caused by humans.

神奇的是，

Phase 3 was: Climate Change may be  caused by humans but it’s not that bad.

電池的價格在過去30年間已經下降了97%；

Phase 4 is: Climate Change is no longer avoidable.  We are doomed and it doesn’t matter what we do.

單看過去十年間就下降了60%--這樣的量足以供應所有種類的綠能科技，比如電動車。

If we want the world to change, we first need  to believe that change is possible. And we have  

你可能會說：嗯~這樣很棒呀，但Kurzgesagt上一篇關於氣候的影片

an abundance of evidence that it is. Changes  to our industrial system are gaining momentum,  

不是說：雖然風力和太陽能很棒，但其實我們需要的是全球產業體系根本上的轉變嗎？

technology gets better and cheaper, climate change  has become a key issue in most free elections.  

是這樣沒錯，但幸運地，變革不僅僅局限於能源這一塊

As more and more younger people  move into influential positions,  

在整個經濟之中，人類總是致力於改善現有科技以減少排放量：

they prioritize climate change and work on  new solutions. In 2022 most governments not  

我們迅速地將舊式白熾燈

only acknowledge it but set their own net zero  goals – in democratic and autocratic countries.  

替換為有十倍發光效率發光二極管（LED燈）；

The results of years of fighting a steep  uphill battle are now clearly visible. The  

在2020年，

pressure needs to keep increasing, to make sure  that the promises made today are actually kept!

挪威每十輛車就有七輛是電動車或油電混合車；

Climate doomerism is the equivalent of giving up  even though you can still prevent not just the  

在2021年

worst case but also mitigate most of the bad  things, make changes in time to adapt better  

已經發展至十輛車就有八輛。

and prevent the poorest from suffering. That is  why hopelessness and apathy are so dangerous.

像這樣的例子還很多：

If the last, in many ways wasted  decade, has shown anything,  

從電暖系統與更佳的房屋隔熱層、

then it’s that progress is being made and that  dire scenarios are just predictions – not our  

到船隻使用半速行駛以減少燃料。

sealed fate. As of 2022, based on current global  policies, we will end up in a 3 degrees world.  

不管從哪個角度看，你都會看到科學家、工程師及企業家正在嘗試解決不同面向的氣候變遷問題。

Now it is our job to yet again prove the  predictions wrong – despite how serious and  

可觀的人類創新思維持續的產出，就為了解決這道疑難，

urgent things are. To turn that 3 degrees into a  2 degrees and then see where we can go from there.

並伴隨愈來愈多人決定將快速氣候變遷的預防

For that we need hope. And we hope we gave you  that today, at least a little. That you feel  

擺在優先順位。

that things are serious but also that you have  a future. That you can have kids without dooming  

許多低碳水泥及人造肉、

them or the world. That taking action today is  worth it. And that despite powerful industries  

低碳電子產品與鋼鐵的解方；

doing everything to delay it, society is changing.  If you need a more concrete roadmap of what you  

人造肉、碳捕集技術這樣的發明都正處進行式。

can do personally – we are working on a follow  up video to talk about that in greater detail.

我們展開愈多這樣的科技，

Doomerism, inactivity and weaponized hopelessness  

就將收穫愈便宜、愈好的科技；

are the only trump cards left for the powers  that don’t want change. Don’t let them win.

當這些科技愈加便宜，

We are still excited about the future.  And we think one of the best things  

就會有愈多人使用。

you can do to keep your optimism and  curiosity up is to learn new things.  

並一再循環。

If you don’t know where to start, our friends  from Brilliant.org have got you covered.

其實我們已經可以看到這樣的影響了：

Brilliant makes math and science accessible  and fun with a hands-on approach.  

即使富裕國家的全國碳排放量降低，也不致造成嚴重經濟衰退。

More than 60 interactive courses  like „The joy of problem solving“ or  

自2000年起，

„Scientific thinking“ give you the tools to crack  problems in math, science and computer science  

歐盟國家全體減少了21%碳排放，其中：

that are all designed to get your intuition  going and give you plenty of aha-experience.

義大利28%、

Lessons will surprise you with  storytelling, code-writing tasks and  

英國45%、丹麥43%。

interactive challenges – basically using whatever  keeps you interested and entertained. All the  

不過，最讚的消息大概是：碳排放從此不再非要與經濟成長並行相長。

content is interactive: instead of just reading  and listening to explanations, you drag and drop,  

這在過去是一個不方便的事實，

manipulate shapes and diagrams, make  selections and answer questions.  

畢竟如果想變更有錢，

This way you learn something almost without  you noticing it. And tiny step by step you’ll  

就要排放更多。

build up your long-term understanding of  science and get closer to your STEM goals.

也因為如此，

To start looking at the world of science from  a different perspective, go to Brilliant.org  

在開發中國家與已開發國家之間