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Today we are answering an age-old very scientific and important question:
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What if the moon crashes into earth? It’s more interesting and weird than you probably think.
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Let's start with the basics: Why isn't the Moon on its way to crash into us already?
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We know that earth’s gravity pulls everything towards it, including the Moon, but somehow,
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it stays up, as if suspended by some opposite force. But there is no other force countering
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gravity - instead, the trick to staying up is a ‘sideways’ motion that we call an orbit.
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You see orbits every day: when you throw a ball it makes a tiny little orbit.
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The only difference between that ball’s orbit and the moon’s is that the ball
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eventually hits the ground. Basically, the reason is speed.
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If you could throw your ball fast enough, it would bend around the world and come back to you.
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If there was no air slowing it down, it could orbit forever. And this is what the moon does:
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Falling sideways around earth, very fast, with no air slowing it down. Orbiting earth every 27 days,
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at 3600 km/h. So for the moon to just stop in its orbit and plummet to the earth would
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break more laws of physics than we have time to explain. So how do we crash it into earth?
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In a nutshell, to change an object’s orbit, you need to change its speed,
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which changes where gravity takes it. But even small changes require enormous forces,
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which is why all the large objects in the solar system are so stable nowadays.
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According to science, the moon is big and very massive. Even igniting billions of rocket engines
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all over its surface would barely move the Moon. It looks like nothing short of magic will make
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the moon fall. So we’ll use a magic spell that slows down the moon so much
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that it changes its orbit and spirals towards earth. To get the most from the experience,
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the moon will take exactly one year before it hits earth. Ready? 3. 2. 1. *Magic
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Month 1
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For the first few days, nothing really changes. The moon gets a tiny bit brighter
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and scientists get confused, but the rest of us don’t notice anything different.
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The only noticeable real effect of the moon on the earth are the tides.
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Tides exist because while earth pulls on the moon, the moon’s gravity pulls back on the earth.
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Since the strength of gravity gets weaker with distance, different parts of the earth
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feel a slightly different pull. Which causes the earth, especially the oceans,
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to bulge when the moon is above them, and contract a little on the sides when it’s
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not. As earth rotates every day underneath the moon, the moon’s influence fluctuates,
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causing the water-level of the oceans to rise and fall by about half a meter twice a day.
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But with the moon drawing ever closer, high tide gets higher every day. At first barely noticeable,
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within a month the moon has covered half the distance to the earth and ocean tides have
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grown to 4 meters. Everyday high tide comes and waves flood coastal cities.
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And there is no end in sight. With the moon drawing ever closer, tides rise ever higher,
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inundating another city and more inhabited land with salty water every day.
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Month 2
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By the end of month 2 the moon has covered two-thirds of the distance to earth,
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and global infrastructure is crumbling as tides rise above ten meters – displacing up
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to a billion people who happen to live near the coastlines.
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As ports become inoperable shipping grinds to a halt. Not only will it slow down the
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delivery of Kurzgesagt products but also less exciting things like food.
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Global communications fall into disarray – 95% of the internet is carried by ocean-crossing cables,
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and while these largely don’t mind the water, their terminals on land do. Living inland
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doesn’t guarantee safety either, tidal bores cause rivers to flow backwards,
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carrying saltwater to contaminate surface and groundwater supplies.
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Gas shortages follow, as oil refineries near the coast are abandoned. Countries are left
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with the supplies they had on their shelves and strict rationing will begin. In the cities,
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chaos reigns during the scavenging hours of low tide,
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while survivors take refuge in highrises when the water returns.
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Month 3
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Three months in and the moon is close enough to disrupt communication
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and navigation satellites. While it is normally far too distant for its gravity to cause any
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major problems for our satellites, the closer it gets the more warped their orbits become.
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As their fuel for orbital corrections runs out, satellites careen out of control.
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Month 4 - 5 On earth, the tides are
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rapidly growing to about 30 meters and will be reaching 100 m in height in a few short weeks.
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At low tide, the ocean recedes hundreds of kilometers, exposing the continental shelf
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like vast deserts, while at high tide walls of water drown agriculture, houses and skyscrapers.
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And now, almost five months in, the apocalypse has finished its warm-up act.
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Since the oceans are on average only 3 kilometers deep, the tides have reached their maximum. Up
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until now, the water in the oceans could flow, absorbing most of the moon's gravitational
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squeezing, but now the earth itself is really feeling the squeeze of the ever approaching moon.
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These aren’t so much tides of ‘water’, but tides of ‘rock.’ The squeezing of the planet,
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combined with the weight of quintillions of tons of water sloshing on and off the tectonic plates,
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creates enormous stresses below and begins to cause earthquakes of increasing magnitude and
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intensity. It’s impossible to say how serious these earthquakes might be or where they occur,
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but like a child jumping on their bed until it breaks, no good can come of it.
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Strong tidal forces lead to volcanism on other planets and moons. On earth,
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squeezing the planet disrupts the magma reservoirs inside the crust,
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triggering sizable, climate-altering eruptions in Chile, New Zealand, Yellowstone, and elsewhere.
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Meanwhile, watching patiently above is the moon. Still no bigger in the sky than a small cloud.
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Within 75,000 km of earth, it is bright enough to illuminate the night sky like twilight.
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Month 6 - 7
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After half a year, the moon is entering the space once occupied by geosynchronous satellites where
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it orbits earth every 24 hours. It appears to float at one spot in the sky, unmoving,
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cycling through a full set of phases every day, but only visible to half the planet.
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With the moon ‘stationary’ above the earth, the tides seem to freeze in
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place – half the world flooded, half with its water seemingly returned to the sea,
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as if Earth is holding its breath to prepare for the worst.
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As the moon sinks further, you might wonder if its gravity would overpower Earth’s, pulling you
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up and ending your misery? Fortunately not.
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The earth’s surface gravity is about 6 times stronger than the moon’s,
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so even if the moon were hovering right on top of you, you would still stay on the ground.
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On the moon things are different though: the near side of the moon is more strongly affected by
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earth’s gravity, so during the next few months, it starts to stretch forward towards the earth, into
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something of an egg, triggering deep moonquakes as the lunar rock flexes and changes shape. Though
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barely noticeable now, this ‘squish’ will grow to hundreds of kilometers in a matter of months.
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Month 8 - 11
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At this point the apocalypse has arrived and we can summarize the months before the crash
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as “everybody left has a really bad time”. The tides sweeping over the Earth slow down
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and then reverse their direction because the moon now orbits earth faster than it rotates.
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The planet will experience an abundance of earthquakes and volcanism. Massive amounts of
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volcanic aerosols rise high into the stratosphere, shiny enough to reflect sunlight back into space.
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What little light gets through is rust-red and is periodically diminished by daily eclipses.
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The result is a rapid global cooling, with acid rains and summer snows killing even
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the hardiest plants.The clock runs out on civilization. Billions have perished
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while an egg-shaped moon is still drawing closer. Let’s get ready for the grand finale.
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Month 12
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Finally, at the end of the year,, the moon has reached the Roche limit. That’s the point
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where Earth’s gravitational pull on the Moon is stronger than the Moon’s own gravity. Things on
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the lunar surface start falling towards Earth and by the time it crosses 10,000 km the entire
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moon disintegrates into rubble, smearing itself into a massive ring system around the earth.
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Fortunately, the moon’s disintegration means the misery on Earth has ended.
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No moon means the general apocalyptic nature of things comes to a halt. The oceans recede,
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flowing off the land one last time.
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Any survivors are treated to a view of tremendous arches spanning the sky,
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glimmering in the sunlight, illuminating the night sky more brilliantly than any
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full moon ever could, while meteor showers of moondust fill the sky.
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It’s hard to say what happens next, but the tranquility may be short-lived.
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If too much moondust rains down, friction heats the atmosphere – possibly boiling the
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oceans. If not, the enormous shadows cast by the rings,
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combined with all the volcanic and meteoric aerosols, block even more sunlight,
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and a period of runaway cooling could begin that freezes much of earth’s surface solid.
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In any case, at some point people will emerge again – from submarines or bunkers
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or mountaintops. They will not have a great time before rebuilding civilization and their success
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is not guaranteed – but at least they will try to do so with beautiful rings in the sky.
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So how do you calculate that sort of thing? Well,
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you just need a bit of insanity and some maths. If you need to brush on the latter:
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Our friends from Brilliant are the perfect coaches to turn your curiosity into practical skills.
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Brilliant is a problem-solving website and app that makes science accessible
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with a hands-on approach. More than 60 interactive courses like „The joy of problem solving“ or
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„Scientific thinking“ give you the tools to crack problems in math, science and computer science in
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a way that feels more like playing a game than doing homework. Lessons will surprise you with
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storytelling, code-writing tasks and interactive challenges – basically using whatever keeps you
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interested and entertained. All the content is interactive: instead of just reading and listening
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to explanations, you drag and drop, manipulate shapes and diagrams, make selections and answer
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questions. This way you learn something almost without you noticing it. And tiny step by step
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you’ll build up your long-term understanding of science and get closer to your STEM goals.
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To start looking at the world of science from a different perspective,
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go to Brilliant.org SlashNutshell and sign up for free. And there’s an extra perk for
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kurzgesagt viewers: the first 200 people to use the link get 20% off their annual membership,
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which unlocks all of Brilliant’s courses in math, science, and computer science.
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At kurzgesagt we love to create things that seem
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impossible at first – Brilliant can help you acquire the skills to do that.
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This year we will release 3 very special limited edition pins. The first one is this very shiny
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Moon Crash Pin Set. Pre-order is available for only 72h, so you can order it now and then
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never again. Be sure to watch out for pin number 2 and 3 to complete your 12,022 collection.