字幕列表 影片播放 列印英文字幕 Well, there's no reason to believe that things in Ukraine are going to get any better. If you turn on CNBC, you'll probably hear something like this: indicator that the market doesn't know which direction to move on this and I wouldn't be selling at a time when the VIX is at 30. With sentiment index, the VIX, just remember, in the peak of the pandemic, we hit, you know, over 80 on the VIX, The volatility index, also known as the VIX, or even Wall Street's fear gauge. It's always been called the Fear Index. It basically takes a read of the market's blood pressure. The VIX goes higher when investors are scared, anxious, nervous and uncertain. What is the risk? What's the fear? What's the level of uncertainty or even the level of stress that's in the marketplace at a given time? It's just a unique tool that we can actually quantify that. So, even though volatility seems intangible, there's actually a way that markets measure such turbulence and sentiment. I mean, take a look at this equation. What does it mean for the market when Russia invades Ukraine, right? So you can see that in the VIX, and you can see that in real time in the VIX. And investors rely on it When you understand how investors are feeling about what's going on in the world, you can then understand how the market may move. Here's how market volatility is measured and how investors use that information to make money. Stock price changes are simply the product of people buying and selling stocks. So volatility is just price movements that are above normal variance. The reason that the VIX index was created was it was a way to measure what institutional investors or the big investors were doing to hedge their bets, and if they were hedging that the market was going to go down. That was a sign that there was fear in the marketplace When the VIX was originally introduced in 1993 by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, it had a different methodology based on calculations around the S&P 100, and that old measure still goes by the ticker symbol VXO. But since 2003, the CBOE updated the VIX to be based on the S&P 500. Because the S&P 500 is this measure of the broad market, the VIX is a measure of the volatility of the broad U.S. stock market. Usually, there is an inverse relationship between the activity that's happening in the major index, which is the S&P 500 and what's going on the base. It's generally inverse. The VIX is a forward looking index measuring implied volatility. As the CBOE puts it, the VIX index is intended to provide an instantaneous measure of how much the market expects the S&P 500 index will fluctuate. Within 30 days it measures to what degree investors are uncertain about the stock market. The movements are really triggered by major events. If it's negative news, then sometimes people get get a little bit scared. That's why when we talk about the VIX, we call it the Fear Index, or people tend to really kind of want to move and transition their assets out of more riskier assets and into more safe assets. If you look at the VIX over the past few years, you can see it spike when the pandemic hit in March 2020, which was a record, and then again in October 2020, when infections spiked and stimulus negotiations stalled, or in November 2021 when Omicron swept the nation. Then even more recently, when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 Overall uncertainty also spikes the VIX. So when we see the VIX spiking and getting higher in January and leading in really the beginning of February, that was primarily around this uncertainty of the Fed and when they were going to raise rates by how much the pace, all of that kind of stuff. There's a complex mathematical equation at the core. Basically, the VIX measures volatility by tracking trading in S&P five hundred options. It's measuring implied volatility over the next 30 days, and that's derived from option activity. So puts and call options are deriving whether the VIX is above norm or below. That's the catalyst for what sparks and moves it in either direction. Now, the options market makes this a little tricky. Options are just a hedge. You don't own the stock outright, but you're owning the option that's tethered to the stock. Let's say something happens in the world. An event happens like the Fed's uncertainty or Russia invading the Ukraine, and investors believe that the overall economy is not going to be more positive in 30 days. The options contracts that they are buying, it's really betting on the market going down. Obviously, it can get far more complicated from here, but just on a very basic fundamental level, it's a hedging opportunity. What options contracts allow us to do is bet on whether a price is going to go up or price is going to go down. This is what the VIX index follows to gauge market volatility: those trades. Imagine a rollercoaster when stocks sell off. Investors may get scared so they could buy options to protect their investments. All those protective purchases, a.k.a. options, send the VIX higher. It's really measuring the degree of price movements, so I think the larger the price movements, the higher the volatility. And just to kind of put some things in perspective. VIX readings over 30 are considered relatively large volatility. VIX below 20 is an indication that the market is rather complacent, so there's not a whole lot of concern for any near-term volatility and or events that would spark a draw down When the VIX is popping, so it's soaring, it's above 19, which is its median, it's average. It is mean reverting. So when it moves up very quickly, it comes back down to its center that 19 or its moving average, oftentimes you can look at the 20 day or the 50 day moving average. When it gets very far away from those technical levels, you can expect it to fall back down into that territory relatively quickly. Oftentimes, investors are always looking at the VIX today as, hey, 30 days from now, you know, we're going to be extremely volatile and that might not be the case. They're taking input data from today, buying activity premium options for today. That's implying the future for tomorrow. But tomorrow could be a very different day, and I think that's very important to make sure you take note of as a retail investor. Investors can use the VIX to help them make investment decisions, or they can indirectly invest in it. A couple of things that you can use the VIX for. Number one, it really is this kind of overall measure of the level of market risk. Stress in the market. And I think that that's really important to understand before you're making an investment decision. When we see volatility spiking, it is a signal for us to take a look at some of the names or our high conviction name list, you know, and see what's going on with these names. But it's going to be spiking for a number of reasons. It could be, you know, some other headline risk or headline news that's impacting price movement. And sometimes these are short term issues. Sometimes they're more long term issues where it might not be an opportune time to buy at this level, but it's a great indicator just to have an understanding of volatility where you're going and potentially what the price moves might look like over the next 30 days. Investors can also invest in volatility. They can invest in the VIX, so not directly, but they can do it through ETFs. Exchange traded funds were also notes when they do that, see, there's like a negative correlation between volatility and stock prices. So when you look at an overall portfolio, sometimes you need certain things to zig while other things are zagging. So that's the whole kind of point of asset allocation, right? So like stocks and bonds and and alternative asset classes, you have these different elements in a portfolio so that they do different things and they also support one another. When one is up, one might be down. When one is up, one might be just a little bit up. It's a good hedge for the S&P 500. Now the VIX can be used for short term tactical trade ideas for sure. Or if you are, you know, your window of investing is much shorter, it might be something you use as a key determinant of when you kind of switch different asset classes or different parts of the market that you want to be invested in. You know, the most important thing is having a plan, whatever you are investing for, whether you are a trader or an investor, having a sound plan, And if you're a long term investor, so you're investing for retirement, you're investing for something 20, 30 years down the road. Today's VIX price shouldn't concern you too much. Invest in you ready set grow. CNBC and Acorns.
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