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  • (dramatic music)

  • - [Johnny] In the summer of 1995, China sent a bunch

  • of its troops to the province of Fujian.

  • They then started testing missiles and putting it on TV.

  • They then started running highly publicized combat

  • exercises, very similar to what it would look like

  • to cross this 130 kilometer wide straight

  • to invade the island of Taiwan.

  • A place that China doesn't think is a real country

  • but rather a part of China itself

  • a rebellious island province in an unfinished civil war.

  • - Another round of Chinese war games

  • near Taiwan has the us and other concerned.

  • - [Johnny] China did all this saber rattling

  • because Taiwan's president had asked

  • for a visa to visit the United States

  • and the US Congress voted to give it to him

  • defined Beijing and undermining China's claim to Taiwan.

  • Oh, and Taiwan was holding their first democratic election.

  • - [Reporter] These are the first free elections

  • of a Chinese leader in 5,000.

  • - [Reporter] China announced Friday

  • that it would start the new military exercises

  • less than a week before Taiwan's presidential election.

  • - [Narrator] China hated that all of this was happening

  • on this island that they think is theirs.

  • Hence all of the military flexing,

  • but look who shows up next.

  • - Diplomatic trouble may be brewing again

  • between China and the United States.

  • (dramatic music)

  • - It's the US military.

  • And they're sending their biggest show

  • of military force in Asia

  • since the Vietnam war right here in China's neighborhood.

  • President Bill Clinton sent in all of the US's best stuff.

  • Aircraft carriers, guided missile cruisers, destroyers,

  • powerful weapon systems

  • from the most powerful military on earth.

  • So all of this concentrated US military power

  • comes into the region

  • and enters right here through the straight of Taiwan.

  • It was a response to China

  • and all of its efforts to intimidate Taiwan.

  • The message was very clear.

  • "China, we are way more powerful than you.

  • So back off and let Taiwan do its thing."

  • And guess what?

  • It totally worked.

  • China backed down and the US reasserted itself

  • as the global powerhouse, a power that no one can mess with.

  • Okay. So now let's fast forward to last fall.

  • A lot has changed in this 20 or so years

  • and China is at it again, flexing on Taiwan.

  • Their favorite way of doing this lately

  • is flying military aircraft into this air border

  • Taiwan's air defense identification zone or ADIZ,

  • and ADIZ is airspace that if you enter

  • you should identify yourself

  • or else the nearby country will assume

  • that you're coming to attack them.

  • China has started flying military aircraft

  • over this airspace

  • without asking permission, without identifying themselves.

  • Not just like once or twice

  • but like dozens of times per day, hundreds of times a month

  • these are the actual recorded flight paths

  • of Chinese aircraft flying over Taiwan's ADIZ.

  • And then back to China, it's a giant F.U.

  • to Taiwan or rather remember whose boss here.

  • Luckily there's some really amazing data

  • on every single one of these Chinese flyovers.

  • They're all documented.

  • - [Reporter] Taiwan's air force scrambled again today.

  • - This is research

  • from the Foreign Policy Research Institute

  • and it's incredibly useful to see China's activity

  • in Taiwan's ADIZ.

  • You can see this massive surge late last year in flyovers.

  • This is a graph that shows every single time

  • a Chinese jet has flown over Taiwan's ADIZ in 2021.

  • You can see that it comes

  • to a peak in the first week of October.

  • This was the week that China was celebrating its founding

  • and they were sending a very clear message to Taiwan.

  • You will be ours.

  • That week, this Chinese state owned publication comes out

  • with this headline: Time to warn Taiwan secessionists

  • and their fomenters: war is real.

  • This is not fair play.

  • So guess who shows up to the region to calm things down?

  • - A US war shit has sailed through the Taiwan Straight.

  • (upbeat electronic music)

  • - So right after this huge bulk of flyovers

  • of Taiwan's aides, the US sends in guided missile destroyers

  • through the Taiwan Straight.

  • And there are accompanied by a Canadian show.

  • - One of 25 Chinese aircraft that entered its defense zone.

  • - Oh, but this time it didn't work.

  • Here's when the US sailed through the Straight.

  • And here's what China does after.

  • Tons more flyovers of Taiwan's ADIZ.

  • Looking at the raw data,

  • you can see that these flyovers start happening

  • almost every day.

  • (upbeat synth music)

  • It's not the 90s anymore.

  • Things have changed.

  • Bill Clinton can't just send a bunch of Naval ships

  • to the Taiwan Straight and expect China to back down.

  • We're living in a different era.

  • The biggest difference is that

  • China's military has become way more powerful

  • in the last 20 years.

  • Add to that, that there's zeal

  • for taking over Taiwan to reunite it with mainland China

  • has grown immensely every year since.

  • The reason I'm telling you this story

  • and showing you the difference between how China reacted

  • in the 90s and how it reacted last fall

  • is because that difference is really important

  • if we want to think about

  • what war looks like in this region.

  • I've been talking to military experts.

  • I've been diving deep into military reports

  • and writings from the Chinese military itself

  • to try to understand what war with Taiwan would look like.

  • It's something that is becoming more likely year by year.

  • So what's to follow is my best attempt

  • at understanding what war in the Taiwan Straight looks like

  • a war that drags in the United States and its allies.

  • War is impossible to predict, and so we don't know for sure

  • but what I hope we can do here is look at a scenario

  • and learn how conflict works and what calculations

  • all the countries involved would have to make

  • in what might become the next world war.

  • - I just wanna make China understand

  • that we are not gonna step back.

  • - China's aggression against Taiwan is accelerating

  • and it's blaming the US.

  • - [Reporter] Beijing has been getting

  • increasingly tough on Taiwan.

  • - [Reporter] So you are saying

  • that the United States would come to Taiwan's defense?

  • (dramatic music)

  • - Yes. And yes.

  • - Hey, before we dive into this

  • I want to say thank you to the sponsor of today's video

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  • A VPN is a very useful tool that allows you to connect

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  • And now let's dive into the scenario

  • about potential war between Taiwan and China.

  • (cheeky music)

  • Okay, I'm gonna dive into a very specific scenario

  • of how conflict could escalate in the Taiwan Straight.

  • But first I have to say something.

  • I have to get this off my chest

  • which is I've felt a little bit conflicted

  • making this video.

  • I feel very against the sort of machismo fascination

  • with conflict, like it's some sort of cool, good thing.

  • When at the end of the day

  • what we're talking about are people's lives.

  • We are talking about valuable taxpayer money.

  • We are talking about the future

  • of entire societies being ripped apart by a power struggle.

  • This is not sexy and cool.

  • This is a nightmare.

  • Secondly, let us all just acknowledge right now

  • how easy it is to dehumanize China

  • and its leaders and its military.

  • But let me just remind you that China doesn't want war.

  • They don't want bloodshed.

  • They will probably try much less violent ways

  • to try to force Taiwan to the negotiating table

  • before resorting to all out invasion.

  • But the reason I want to make a video

  • about the nightmare scenario, because even

  • if a military has a goal

  • for a less violent intervention, that's not how war works.

  • Conflict is very messy and one miscalculation can lead

  • to an escalation in the conflict.

  • And now you have a wildfire that is

  • out of control on both sides.

  • It's incredibly easy for the momentum

  • of conflict to bring us into that kind of situation.

  • And that's why I wanna suss out what it could look like.

  • Okay. Those are my of disclaimers.

  • Let's dive into this.

  • (dramatic music)

  • I'm gonna start rolling here.

  • I'm two.

  • Okay. I'm gonna clap here comes.

  • Okay, I need to bring you over

  • to my desk to show you some documents I've been staring at.

  • Any invasion of Taiwan starts with this document.

  • This is a Chinese law meant to stop any parts of China

  • from succeeding from China itself.

  • And it mentions Taiwan.

  • It basically says that if Taiwan tries to assert

  • its independence from China or, and this is the most

  • important part, or if the possibilities

  • for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted

  • that China shall employ non peaceful means

  • and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty

  • and territorial integrity.

  • Translation, if they run out of diplomatic solutions,

  • China is required by law to invade Taiwan

  • and force it to reunite with China

  • and know I don't read or speak Mandarin

  • but Google translate, come on.

  • Listen, we're like 70 years into peaceful solutions

  • being tried and not working.

  • Meanwhile, on the island of Taiwan support for any sort

  • of reunification is at an all time low.

  • Like it's not looking like peaceful reunification

  • is gonna happen,

  • which is making the interpretation of this law

  • more and more on the side of China should do this forcibly.

  • Okay, so that's the legal justification

  • from a Chinese perspective,

  • pair that with the fact that unlike in the 90s

  • China now has a massive military.

  • - There's new concern at the Pentagon

  • about China's military buildup.

  • - With all sorts of new missiles-

  • - China could soon be able

  • to deploy a nuclear tipped missile

  • that us defenses would find much harder to detect.

  • - Tanks, helicopters, submarines, ships.

  • I mean, this isn't from me.

  • This is the US government.

  • They recently came out with a report that said

  • that the Chinese Navy now is bigger than the US's Navy.

  • At least by numbers.

  • They have 360 versus our 297 ships.

  • Now caveat to that data, our ships are much bigger

  • but still China's recent military buildup is nuts

  • and this is why the US military is kind of freaking out.

  • - My opinion is this problem is much closer to us than most.

  • Think we have to take this on with urgency.

  • - China is upping the anti on Taiwan

  • - [Reporter] And there are fresh fears

  • of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

  • Taking over Taiwan remains

  • China's number one strategic priority.

  • (dramatic music)

  • - Okay, so this is the moment that a lot

  • of you probably came to this video for,

  • which is what does the war actually look like?

  • Let's say that China feels confident

  • that the only way that Taiwan is going to join China

  • which is again, a legal imperative,

  • is if they forcibly invade.

  • Blockade isn't working,

  • negotiation isn't working.

  • The first strike on Taiwan would likely look like

  • just another Chinese provocative ADIZ flyover.

  • China's done this hundreds of times.

  • So at this point, Taiwan thinks

  • that they're just doing another one of their routine flex

  • our military might exercises,

  • but this time the fighter jet turns

  • towards the island and begins firing.

  • At the same time, China fires guided missiles

  • from the mainland and deploys tons more jets

  • and they all start firing in a fast,

  • highly coordinated attack.

  • The target here is anything that Taiwan can use

  • to defend itself, like weapons that can shoot

  • down planes or boats that are coming onto the island.

  • I mean, this could be anything.

  • Radar communication nodes, military command centers

  • Navy bases, bridges, communication networks, power stations

  • even government buildings.

  • They would have a wide variety

  • of targets to effectively deny Taiwan.

  • The ability to respond effectively.

  • I mean, unfortunately for Taiwan, a lot

  • of these targets are left out in the open.

  • They're easy to see.

  • A runway is really easy to see and really hard to hide.

  • This first attack would happen very quickly.

  • One military expert, Ian Easton put it very

  • succinctly when he said, assuming the intent is invasion,

  • these attacks could be expected to be concentrated

  • in a short timeframe, as a prelude

  • to invasion with no pauses other than those required

  • for moving, reloading, and repairing equipment.

  • Whew, sounds horrible.

  • So Taiwan's leaders are caught off guard

  • and they immediately retreat underground

  • to a command bunker where they can plan their response.

  • Luckily, China will not be able to take out

  • all of their military targets.

  • Some of their aircraft hangers are deep in mountains

  • and some of their missile sites are really well camouflaged.

  • They would escape the bombardment.

  • So Taiwan would have the ability to respond.

  • They would likely be able to get some air power

  • into air and fire some missiles

  • towards mainland China to hit air bases

  • radar and military batteries on the mainland.

  • At this point, Taiwan also sends troops

  • to their Western beaches to start laying mines

  • and preparing for an oncoming barrage

  • of Chinese troops who are probably now

  • on their way across the Straight.

  • This has all happened within just a few hours.

  • And the US is just barely hearing about this.

  • China has likely jammed much

  • of the communication channels that would allow

  • the US to have a clear picture of what's going on.

  • This will slow their response time.

  • The thing is China has gotten really good

  • at sending little robots up to satellites in space,

  • their civilian satellites, to like help repair them.

  • They could use the same technology to latch

  • onto an American spy satellite

  • and block its ability to view what's happening

  • on the ground.

  • Yes, we're not talking about conflict

  • in space as a feasible part of this scenario.

  • So the US is trying to get up to speed.

  • The US president and military leaders

  • now have to decide how they're gonna respond.

  • Are they gonna risk American lives to

  • protect this far away island?

  • It's something that the American public broadly

  • would not be into, but they have to do something.

  • They have to make a plan.

  • Meanwhile, back over in the Straight,

  • Taiwan's military assets are severely damaged

  • and China is now sending hundreds of thousands of troops

  • and loads of supplies

  • across this 130 kilometer stretch of water.

  • They're using boats of all kind, military boats

  • merchant boats, that don't need to defend themselves

  • because Taiwan can't respond adequately.

  • And each of these vessels is carrying tons

  • of supplies and troops.

  • But again, on Taiwan's Western beaches

  • there are probably Taiwanese troops who have

  • been planting mines ready for this invasion.

  • So there's now a battle

  • on the beaches as Chinese amphibious attackers

  • try to hit the beaches and push back the Taiwanese defense.

  • We're gonna continue assuming Taiwan

  • and doesn't give up and capitulate and surrender to China,

  • at this point.

  • If that's the case, the US is now just starting to respond

  • likely from their bases in the region, Japan and Guam.

  • They deploy aircraft carriers

  • with jets and bombers stealth fighters, as well

  • as fast attack submarines that will focus on one thing

  • hitting all of these ships

  • the ones that are bringing stuff and people

  • across the Straight.

  • Japan and Australia likely come in as allies

  • to help out on this defense.

  • And now the US and its allies are in direct combat

  • with China, two nuclear nations fighting each other.

  • This is exactly what we try to avoid

  • because we don't know where it goes from here.

  • We don't know where the ceiling is.

  • War always escalates.

  • And when there's nuclear weapons involved

  • that's a very scary momentum.

  • There's even a scenario where China actually

  • strikes first hitting us bases in Japan and Guam.

  • At the same time that they hit their initial targets

  • in Taiwan.

  • This would be a much more or provocative move

  • and would certainly bring the US full force

  • into a war with China.

  • So now you have Chinese troops who have pushed

  • back the Taiwanese defense on the western beaches.

  • And they're now moving in towards major city centers.

  • The US is fighting on the water and in the air.

  • And from here

  • it becomes impossible to predict what could happen next.

  • There are so many different directions

  • depending on the US's tolerance for bloodshed.

  • There could be American troops on the ground trying to push

  • back Chinese advancements inland.

  • But if you look at Chinese military writings on this

  • you see that as a part of this scenario

  • when they're thinking about it, they're not just thinking

  • about the US and its allies in Taiwan.

  • They also predict that India will take advantage

  • of this moment of chaos

  • and invade the Himalayan borders to the south.

  • They even foresee Tibetan freedom fighters, way out here

  • in the west who have long been hostile toward Chinese rule

  • rising up and taking advantage

  • of the instability to gain back control of their region.

  • I mean, you can see how this starts to unfold.

  • Before you know it, the entire region is devolving

  • into a war that threatens to engulf many more countries,

  • hundreds of thousands of lives.

  • And this is where I wanna stop because from here

  • it just becomes so speculative as to be completely useless.

  • But I tell you this scenario

  • of a potential invasion of Taiwan,

  • not because it's the most likely, it's actually not.

  • The more likely situation is China will pressure Taiwan

  • through blockades or through other painful pressures

  • that will get them to come to the negotiating table.

  • I tell you this

  • because this scenario is still absolutely a possibility.

  • What's scary to me about all of this.

  • And I've said this a bunch

  • but I'm just gonna keep saying it: once something

  • like this starts, it's really hard to reverse it,

  • to put the cat back in the bag.

  • No one's in control.

  • That's a concept that's really hard to get your head around,

  • if you didn't live through a global war.

  • We live in an international system

  • that feels like it has rules.

  • We have the UN, we have treaties and conventions.

  • We have global trade.

  • It feels like there's some sort of order

  • but let me remind you that

  • that's because we live in the most peaceful time

  • in human history, this long piece where

  • few people alive today witnessed what it looks

  • like when two powerful countries clash in all out war.

  • It usually happens when some powerful leader feel strongly

  • that he deserves land

  • that the rest of the world says isn't his.

  • So he uses his big, powerful army to go take it.

  • And in the process, he sparks a horrible tragedy.

  • And while I hope more than anything that doesn't happen

  • in this case, we have to remember how commonplace it is

  • and that the peace be these big powers

  • is actually the outlier here.

  • I really hope that we are past needing to resort

  • to this version of conflict

  • to settle our disputes at this time in our history.

  • But I'm not totally convinced that we are yet.

  • And I think China and Taiwan,

  • this specific case is the best thing to look at

  • to test whether or not we can.

  • We can talk about it.

  • We can find creative ways to solve this,

  • instead of resorting to the thing humans have done forever,

  • which is just fight each other and see who wins.

  • (downbeat music)

  • Okay, so I appreciate you watching this video

  • and would love to hear your thoughts.

  • I left a bunch of sources down

  • in the description where you can read a lot more

  • about this from the really good research

  • and reporting that has been done on this topic.

  • I've got a bunch more videos coming out in the next month.

  • So stay tuned and subscribe if you're not already.

  • I also have LUTs and presets

  • which are in the link in my description.

  • They are how I color my videos and photo,

  • if you are interested in that.

  • I also have a storytelling course where I go

  • into my thoughts on storytelling.

  • That is all in the description.

  • You can check it out and that's it.

  • Thanks for watching.

  • I'll see you in the next one.

(dramatic music)

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中國(Here’s What Happens If China Invades Taiwan)

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    joey joey 發佈於 2022 年 02 月 27 日
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