The US and China slipping further into a new kind of cold war that will go on to define this century, and force the rest of the world to decide where it stands.

美國和中國的關係持續降至冰點，並發展出新形態的冷戰，繼續影響本世紀的政治發展，迫使世界其他國家選邊站。

Taiwan and Ukraine are both dangerous flashpoints where this cold conflict could turn hot.

在這場冷戰中，臺灣和烏克蘭都處於非常危險的處境，這兩個地方都是隨時可以點燃美中軍事武力戰火的導火線。

And all this division is a tragedy for a world that needs to focus on common threats like climate change and the pandemic.

在這個需要全球一起努力對抗氣候變遷和冠狀病毒疫情的時刻出現這些人為的分裂，對世界來說無疑是一個悲劇。

Here in Germany, the new government finds itself in the thick of things, chairing the G-7 and desperately trying to salvage the diplomatic route out of the crisis over Ukraine.

在德國，新任政府剛上台就面臨許多棘手問題，包括接任七大工業國組織輪值主席，以及試圖通過外交手段去處理烏克蘭危機。

New chancellors usually get a 100-day grace period, but no such luck for Olaf Scholz in 2022.

新官上任通常都有 100 天的蜜月期，但 2022 年的蕭茲可沒這樣的運氣。

The Omicron variant will already determine success or failure his very ability to govern.

Omicron 變異株將會是蕭茲證明執政能力的第一道考驗。

Climate policy will be another such test.

而治理氣候的政策將會是他的第二道考驗。

Olaf Scholz will have to prove his claim that he can transform Germany to a green economy and create wealth at the same time.

蕭茲需要兌現他的政治承諾，帶領德國進行綠色經濟轉型，並在轉型的同時為德國創造財富。

All along, Scholz will also need to prevent fault lines within his governing coalition from becoming all-out cracks.

此外，他也得避免讓內閣成員之間的岐見演變成扯後腿事件。

He and his Green foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, have already made very different statements on how understanding Germany should be of Russia or China, for instance.

因為，舉個最明顯的例子，他的綠黨外交部長貝爾伯克此前就針對德國該挺俄羅斯還是中國的議題，發表了和他相左的立場。

Only if Scholz can afford a joint line in his coalition can Germany live up to those expectations within the European Union and beyond.

蕭茲唯有凝聚他所領導的聯合政府，才不會辜負歐盟內部和外部對德國的期望。

2022 is shaping up to be another year fraught with challenges for the European Union with geopolitical tensions rising, so a phrase you will be hearing frequently is "strategic autonomy".

2022 年對歐盟來說又是充滿挑戰的一年，隨著地緣政治的緊張局勢不斷加劇，「戰略自主」這個詞彙將更頻密地映入你我的眼簾。

"What is that?" you ask.

你或許會問「戰略自主是什麼意思？」

Well, here in Brussels, that term embodies Europe's desire to stand on its own two feet to produce more here instead of having to buy everything from China,

在歐盟的權力中心布魯塞爾這裡，戰略自主代表著歐洲減少依賴中國進口，提高自造能力，

and to defend itself without having to rely on the United States and NATO.

以及建立自主能力，走出對美國和北大西洋公約組織的依賴的願望。

That could include an EU army as well as efforts to ramp up production for products like semiconductors here in Europe.

這包括組建一支歐盟軍隊，以及加速推進歐洲生產半導體的等產品的能力。

Now, this push for autonomy is really the brainchild of the French president Emmanuel Macron; he wants Europe to dream bigger and assert itself globally.

法國總統馬克宏是喊出戰略自主的第一人，他希望歐洲可以有更大的抱負，並在全球持續發揮影響力。

But not everybody is on board⏤some think it's a useless pipe dream.

但他的主張不是每一個人都買單，有些人認為這是個無用的白日夢。

But France holds the first rotating presidency for the European Union in 2022, so Emmanuel Macron will be forging ahead.

但法國將在 2022 年接任歐盟輪值主席國，所以馬克宏勢必會勇往直前，推動他的主張。

2022 will indeed be a very crucial year for China, and that mainly has to do with two big events ahead.

2022 年對中國來說也會是非常關鍵的一年，因為今年中國將迎來兩件大事。

The first one being the Beijing Winter Olympics, which will be held in February, and observers basically perceived this event as an accelerator of the already widening gap between the West and China.

第一件大事是 2 月登場的北京冬奧會。觀察家們認為，冬奧會將加劇西方國家和中國之間的漸行漸遠。

While the Chinese government promotes the Beijing Winter Olympics as a milestone for a country that has become a world power,

中國政府會把北京冬奧會變成一個展示國家實力的里程碑，向全球展現中國成為世界大國的實力。

the West mostly debates about a political boycott of the Games and also debates about the, uh, increasing human rights violations inside the country.

至於西方國家，則持續針對杯葛冬奧會，以及中國境內日益嚴重的侵犯人權行為展開辯論。

Then, in autumn, there will be the biggest political event of the year, the 20th Party Congress.

今年秋天，中國也將迎來本年度最大型的政治活動——第 20 屆全國代表大會。

And during that event, Xi Jinping is expected to proclaim his third term in office, and that will make him the longest-serving Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.

習近平預料會在全國代表大會中宣佈第三度擔任國家主席，這將使他成為自毛澤東以來任期最長的中國領導人。

And if you look back, um, under Xi's rule over the last 10 years, he has transformed the country tremendously.

我們回顧中國這幾年的發展史，可以發現中國過去 10 年在習近平的領導下經歷了非常巨大的改變。

And so far, he doesn't show any signs of easing control.

而到目前為止，習近平依然把權力牢牢把握在手。

Tensions between Taiwan and China continue to grow as President Xi Jinping refuses to rule out using military force to reunify with the Democratic Island.

隨著習近平拒絕排除武統臺灣的可能性，臺灣和中國之間的緊張局勢持續升溫。

Taiwan is going to implement new policies for military reservists starting from January 2022.

臺灣將從 2022 年 1 月起實施教育召集新制。

Reservists can be asked to train in consecutive years rather than every other year, and the training period will be extended from 7 days to 14 days.

在教召新制下，後備軍人將從原先的「2 年 1 訓」更改為「1 年 1 召」，教召期間也會從原來的 7 天延長至 14 天。

Amid Beijing's threat, Taiwan has been fostering relations with EU countries. Delegations from France, Lithuania, and Slovakia visited the island in the past 12 months.

面對來自中國的威脅，臺灣持續與歐盟國家建立關係，在過去 1 年，臺灣先後接待了來自法國、立陶宛和斯洛伐克的代表。

Taiwan opened a de facto embassy in Lithuania, prompting a furious reaction from Beijing. Lithuania will open its representative office in Taiwan in early 2022.

臺灣在立陶宛開設了駐立陶宛台灣代表處，引起北京的激烈反應，立陶宛將在 2022 年初在臺灣成立駐台經貿代表處。

And domestically, Taiwan will hold local elections in November. It's the first national ballot since President Tsai Ingwen got reelected, and it is seen as a litmus test for the 2024 presidential fold.

在國內，臺灣將在 11 月舉行地方選舉，這是總統蔡英文連任後的第一次全國性選舉，並被視為是 2024 年總統選舉的試金石。

It began with dances and tears of joy.

人們以舞蹈及喜悅的淚水迎接全新的時刻，

Biden supporters euphorically celebrated the announcement of the election results in November, 2020.

2020 年 11 月，拜登的支持者欣喜若狂地慶祝選舉結果。

A year later, not much of that remains.

然而一年之後，此情不再。

To this day, Trump supporters doubt the legitimacy of the election.

時至今日，川普的支持者仍然對選舉的合法性存在著質疑。

Over time, it is becoming clearer how close the US came to a coup d'etat on January 6th that would have prevented the transfer of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden.

2021 年 1 月 6 日的美國政變，恐怕會再度上演。

We want Trump! We want Trump!

唯一支持川普！唯一支持川普！

It is one of the pitfalls of the US electoral system that the president is already in campaign mode after just one year in office.

美國選舉制度的其中一個缺點是總統上任剛滿 1 年又得再次進入競選模式。

The midterm elections will determine on November 8th whether President Biden will lose his ability to govern.

11 月 8 日舉行的中期選舉，將對拜登總統接下來的執政成敗起決定性的影響。

It is quite likely that the majorities in both houses will go to the Republicans,

這一次選舉，兩院的多數席位很可能會落入共和黨的手中，

and they can, and they will, prevent anything the Democrats can claim as a success in the upcoming 2024 presidential campaign.

一旦共和黨掌握多數優勢，他們就可以，並且會阻止民主黨在 2024 年總統選舉到來前執行任何可以贏得民心的政策，

In the extremely radicalized United States, everything is now politicized.

在如今這個極其激進的美國，一切都被政治化了。

In the fight against the Corona crisis, which has already claimed over 800,000 lives, political interests come before the common good.

從冠狀病毒危機的應對中，我們可以看到，即便冠狀病毒奪走了超過八十萬條性命，但在政治人物的眼裡，政治利益顯然高於公共利益。

The same is true of the climate crisis, which has hit the country with more extreme weather more frequently.

在氣候危機的應對方面也是如此，在過去這段時間，美國經歷了更頻密、更極端的天氣。

The biggest challenge facing America, however, is how secure its democratic institutions are. They are under attack at every level.

然而，美國面臨的最大挑戰是其民主體制的安全性。在這段時間裡，美國各階級的民主體制都受到了攻擊。

This year, the stage is set for whether one of the oldest democracies may slip into an autocratic system. It might sound inconceivable for many, but it is quite possible

今年，全球都在關注美國這個最古老的民主國家之一，是否會走上獨裁體制。這對許多人來說可能聽起來不可思議，但卻很可能會發生。

The United Nations is predicting that nearly 300 million people in the world will need humanitarian aid in 2022.

聯合國預測，2022 年世界上將有近 3 億的人需要人道主義援助。

More than half of that number are Africans.

在這些人當中，有一半以上是非洲人。

Ethiopia, South Sudan, Nigeria, and the Sahara countries face a raft of challenges including war, terrorism, hunger, climate change, and the coronavirus pandemic.

衣索匹亞、南蘇丹、尼日利亞和撒哈拉國家面臨一系列挑戰，包括戰爭、恐怖主義、飢餓、氣候變化和冠狀病毒疫情。

Democracy is also eroding.

當地的民主主義也正受到侵蝕。

Human rights abuses are projected to increase as leaders in many African countries try to hold tightened power against the choices of their citizens.

由於許多非洲國家的領導人試圖從人民手中爭奪更多的權力，也因此可以預期侵犯人權事件會持續增加。

Militaries in West Africa and the Horn of Africa have shown a desire for power. Mali, Chad, Guinea, and Sudan are countries to watch come 2022.

位於西非和非洲之角的武裝部隊展現了對權力的渴望，馬利、查德、幾內亞和蘇丹接下來的局勢發展都非常值得我們關注。

All of them have seen militaries taking up political responsibilities in their hands, leaving civilians in state of despair.

這些國家的軍人從百姓的手中奪過了政治權力，陷百姓於絕望當中。

The pandemic is also expected to threaten the economy catch-up initiated in recent decades by African countries.

冠狀病毒的入侵，預料也會對非洲國家過去數十年推動的經濟發展計劃造成威脅。

Big economic countries like South Africa and Nigeria will be affected, but stronger rebound is expected for countries like Ivory Coast, Morocco, Rwanda, and Kenya.

南非和尼日利亞等經濟大國將受到影響，但相信象牙海岸、摩洛哥、盧旺達和肯亞等國家將面臨更加嚴峻的挑戰。

On a positive note, China is expected to deliver at least one billion vaccines.

從好的方面來看，中國會為非洲提供至少 10 億支疫苗。

Senegal had run the plan to start producing their own vaccines in 2022.

塞內加爾計劃在 2022 年自產疫苗。