Name: 【The Economist 經濟學人】2021年重要的五大事件 The World in 2021: five stories to watch out for
Uploaded: 2022-01-03T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 18 min 20 s

In 2020, one story has consumed everything.

2020 年，新冠肺炎籠罩了全球。

But in 2021, the world will start looking to life beyond the pandemic.

而 2021 年，全球正準備迎接後疫情時代的生活。

So behind the headlines, what are the other moments you should be watching out for in the year ahead?

我們整理了值得關注的大事紀，告訴你未來一年值得留意的趨勢發展。

From the launch of an asteroid smashing spaceship to the event that could help the world turn a corner on climate change, here are five stories set to shape the post COVID world.

從發射探測器撞擊小行星保衛地球，到氣候變遷議題，以下是五則將會影響後疫情時代世界的新聞。

In 2021, democracy will be especially tested.

2021 年，民主主義將受到試煉。

There will be an abundance of elections, many postponed from 2020 by the pandemic.

因為 2020 年疫情爆發的關係，許多選舉被延後到 2021 年舉行。

And in fragile democracies, autocratic leaders will use the excuse of COVID-19 to crack down on opposition, such as in Uganda which is due to hold its presidential election in January.

在一些民主主義脆弱的國家，獨裁的領袖會以 COVID-19 為理由來打擊對手，比如即將在 1 月舉行總統選舉的烏干達。

Maria is a 25 year old activist who was campaigning for the opposition candidate Bobi Wine.

Maria 是一位社會運動人士，她今年 25 歲，並為反對派候選人 Bobi Wine 助選。

But Ugandan authorities have banned rallies because of COVID-19.

烏干達當局以防治 COVID-19 的理由，禁止人們聚集。

They're not implementing COVID guidelines with the people that who live day to day lives.

COVID 防治辦法的實施對象不是平民百姓。

They're only implementing these guidelines with opposition politicians. That is all. So it is just an excuse.

而是衝反對派政治領袖而來。僅此而已。全都是藉口。

At a recent rally, Police arrested Bobi Wine accusing him of flouting COVID-19 restrictions.

在近期的一場集會中，警察逮捕了 Bobi Wine，指控他違反 COVID-19 的防疫規定。

When they were arresting Bobi Wine, what they did was to first block all the vehicles that were around, and only his vehicle was allowed to go in front.

當他們對 Bobi Wine 展開逮捕行動時，警方首先堵住所有附近的車輛，唯獨讓 Bobi Wine 的座駕通行到前方。

They pepper-sprayed all his bodyguards—those that are personal bodyguards, not the ones Electoral Commission gave to us.

然後警方對 Bobi Wine 每一位保鏢噴灑胡椒噴霧，那些人是私人保鏢，而不是選舉委員會委派來保護 Bobi 
Wine 的保鏢。

They pepper-sprayed them, and they were beaten.

保鏢不光是遭到胡椒噴霧對待，還遭到毆打。

Protests broke out. Almost 1000 people were arrested and 45 were killed.

於是爆發了示威抗議事件。在這起事件中，將近一千人遭到逮捕，四十五人喪命。

Crackdowns on opposition politicians are not just happening in Uganda.

反對派政治人物被鎮壓的情況，不止是發生在烏干達。

Since the pandemic started, democracy and human rights have deteriorated in 80 countries, according to Freedom House, a think tank.

智庫自由之家表示，打從疫情爆發起，共有 80 個國家的民主和人權情況退化。

This is certainly a problem in in Africa, because there are many countries there that have made a partial transition towards democracy and respect for human rights.

這對非洲來說肯定是個問題，因為非洲許多國家正朝向民主和人權維護的方向轉型。

But because it's fairly recent and the institutions that protect it are not particularly strong, there's always a danger of backsliding.

非洲的民主化之路是近期才發生，而保護民主體制的機構還不夠強大，所以很容易一不小心就打回原形。

Uganda's president, Yoweri Museveni has been in power for almost 35 years.

烏干達的總統，Yoweri Museveni 治國將近 35 年。

In 2017, he changed the country's constitution to allow him to serve a 6th term.

2017 年，他改變國家的憲法，允許他第六度蟬聯總統職。

The pandemic has made it easier to block opposition and dissent.

疫情讓他更輕易地封鎖反對和異議的聲音。

All we want is to change power, and so the power comes back to the people and the institutions that must protect the people. That is all we want!

我們要的不多，我們只要政權交替，還政於民，政府有效保護人民。

Maria can't even campaign on social media.

Maria 甚至無法在社交媒體上作政治宣傳。

Government rules brought in in 2020, require many Internet users to register with the regulator before they can publish anything online.

政府在 2020 年推行新法，規定網路用戶在使用網路前必須先向執法單位登記。

Across the world, 91 countries have experienced new or increased restrictions on the news media as a result of the pandemic.

在疫情的影響下，全球共有 91 國的新聞自由受到新的或更多的限制。

I think there's a real danger that democracy will continue to retreat in 2021.

我覺得 2021 年，民主主義會出現倒退。

I'm hoping that eventually we'll be able to get widespread vaccines out there,

我希望我們能盡快普及化疫苗接種。

and that will make it easier for people to gather together and to organize, which is what you need to be able to do if you're going to resist tyranny.

讓人們可以更容易聚在一起，組織一些東西來對抗暴政。

We must campaign so that we win this election. We are ready to fight for our victory.

要贏得選舉，我們必須宣傳。我們會竭盡所能爭取勝利。

為了獲取更多的選票，就算面對子彈威脅也在所不惜。

2021 will be a tipping point for electric cars, as more manufacturers roll out their electric range.

2021 年將會是電動車的關鍵轉折點，因為越來越多車廠先後推出電動車。

Suddenly there's going to be a huge array of electric vehicles for people to choose from.

突然間，市面上多了許多電動車款讓人們選擇。

In the autumn, the gas guzzling SUV brand of General Motors, Hummer, will start production on all electric cars.

通用汽車旗下的休旅車品牌悍馬估計在秋天開始生產電動車。

And at the end of the year, Elon Musk's Tesla will launch its futuristic looking Cybertruck.

而 Elon Musk 領導的特斯拉將會在年底推展外型極具未來感的 Cybertruck 電動皮卡車。

The Cybertruck may not be to everyone's taste.

Cybertruck 也許不是人見人愛的車款。

I think that's significant because in the American market, the real profits there to be made on pickups.

我認為，這是因為在美國車市，皮卡車才是真正吃香的車款。

Un, so Tesla have come out with their own version of the pickup, the Cybertruck.

所以特斯拉只得生產特斯拉版本的皮卡車— Cybertruck。

The electric Hummer is trying to tap into that market.

It's the America's biggest and most profitable market.

這是美國最大也最有利可圖的市場。

Investment in the electric revolution has surged.

大批投資的湧入，推動了電動車革命。

Over 250 firms are currently manufacturing electric vehicles, and 47 battery factories are under construction.

目前有超過 250 家車廠投入電動車生產的行列，47 所電池生產廠房正在建設中。

Tesla, the market leader, has seen its share price surge.

電動車市場領導者特斯拉的股價一路狂飆。

It's now so valuable, it's been added to the S&P 500, America's main stock market index, putting it in the same bracket as companies like Apple and Microsoft.

特斯拉現在很值錢，它已經被納入美國最重要的股票指數—標準普爾 500 指數，與蘋果和微軟等強勢企業並駕齊驅。

Tesla is a remarkable story. No car company has gone from nothing to where Tesla is in such a rapid period of time.

特斯拉是個傳奇。沒有任何一家車廠可以在這麼短時間內達到特斯拉的成就。

So you have to take your hat off to Elon Musk for doing that.

你不得不欽佩 Elon Musk 的作為。

Tesla's success convinced established carmakers that there was a market for electric cars.

特斯拉的成功，向傳統車廠宣示了電動車大有可為。

The car companies that made the biggest bet on the future is Volkswagen, which has invested huge sums, but all car companies are introducing electric models every week.

目前，對電動車押下重注的是福斯汽車，該車廠投放了大筆資金去研發電動車，但幾乎每一週都有車廠發布新的電動車款。

You hear about a new plan to electrify an old model or bring out a new model from various car companies. So it really is picking up the pace.

這些車廠要嘛就是電動化現有車款，要嘛就是推出新的電動車款，大家都在追趕電動車的市場潮流。

Although all car sales dropped in 2020, in 2021, they are expected to pick up again, and sales of battery powered vehicles are projected to grow rapidly over the next decade.

雖然 2020 年所有汽車的銷量均下跌，不過 2021 年，車市預計會復甦，而未來十年，電動車的銷量將會蓬勃成長。

If more governments commit to future bans on the sale of petrol and diesel cars, the growth in the electric vehicle sector could accelerate even more.

如果未來更多的政府禁止銷售汽油車上路，電動車的爆發性成長指日可待。

In November, all eyes will be on Glasgow, Scotland, as world leaders meet for the UN's climate change summit.

在 11 月，蘇格蘭的格拉斯哥將會成為全球矚目的焦點，因為全球的領袖會聚集此地參加聯合國氣候變遷大會。

Known as COP 26, it was originally scheduled for 2020, but postponed due to the pandemic.

氣候變遷大會也被稱為 COP26，原定於 2020 年舉辦，不過受到疫情影響而延期舉行。

If it had gone ahead as planned, COP 26 would have marked five years since the Paris Agreement.

如果 COP26 如期舉行的話，今年正好會是《巴黎協定》屆滿 5 年的日子。

Built into the Paris Agreement was this ratchet mechanism that basically said governments need to, every five years. increased the promises to cut emissions.

簽署《巴黎協定》的各國政府，均承諾每 5 年加劇減少碳排放的努力。

The Paris Agreement set a target of limiting global warming to between 1.5 and 2°C above pre industrial temperatures.

《巴黎協定》的目標，是將全球暖化的溫度升幅控制在工業革命前水準的攝氏 1.5 到 2 度之間。

But experts predict that the pledges governments made in 2015 would not be enough to achieve this target.

但專家預言，各國政府在 2015 年所承諾的減排努力將無法達到的當初議定的目標。

So this ratchet mechanism, the purpose of COP 26, is really to get closer to this target of 1.5 to 2°C, and what's needed for that are bigger, better promises to cut national emissions.

所以 COP26 的舉辦，是為了加速實現溫度升幅控制在攝氏 1.5 到 2 度的目標，並督促各國政府更投入、更努力地降低國家碳排放量。

It looks likely that 2021 will be the boldest year ever for tackling climate change.

2021 年很可能會看到各國政府採取更劇烈的措施去應對氣候變遷。

So the EU has said that it will reach net zero emissions by 2050.

歐盟承諾說，他們會在 2050 年達到淨零碳排。

Climate change is caused by us. So in other words, it's up to us to make a turnaround.

氣候變遷是我們造成的。所以換句話說，解鈴還需系鈴人。

They have an expansive package of policies that they will be expanding on and agreeing on in 2021 for how they head towards that goal.

他們作了通盤政策策劃，並會在 2021 年投放更多努力去實現目標。

The surprise announcement really of this year came in September when Xi Jinping announced that China would be heading towards carbon neutrality by 2060.

近年最引人注目的宣布，就屬習近平宣布中國會朝實現 2060 年的碳中和目標努力。

The details of how China does this are still unclear and are anticipated at some point in 2021.

不過中國具體要怎麼做，目前還未明朗化，估計他們會在 2021 年某個時間點公佈。

In America, Donald Trump has undermined global efforts to tackle global warming.

反觀美國，川普總統正走在另一個與解決全球暖化目標相違背的路上。

We are going to put our coal miners back to work.

我們的煤礦礦工將會繼續有飯吃。

I believe it's this: the battle to save our planet by getting climate under control.

我相信這才是正確的：控制氣候變遷，以拯救我們正居住的星球。

Joe Biden is going to mark a real U-turn, in particular American foreign climate policy.

拜登將會逆轉美國退出《巴黎協定》的決定，特別是針對美國的外國氣候變遷政策。

Biden has promised to put America back into the Paris Agreement pretty much as soon as he enters the oval office, and as such, America will once again be influencing global climate politics.

拜登承諾，只要他當選總統就會讓美國重返《巴黎協定》，到時候美國就能再次對全球氣候政治發揮影響力。

America is the world's second biggest emitter.

Joe Biden has promised to make the country carbon neutral by 2050.

拜登承諾 2050 年讓美國變成碳中和的國家。

His greatest challenge however, is getting these ambitious pledges through Congress.

他眼前最嚴峻的挑戰是，如何讓美國國會支持他的承諾。

There is a lot of ease in making these long term promises.

要作長期性的承諾顯然很簡單。

It's a lot harder to back those up with the real policies at home that are going to achieve them.

但要把承諾落實於政策中，讓目標得以兌現卻非常困難。

But having the European Union, the United States, China all headed towards some kind of mid-century target—2050, 2060—of eliminating their emissions,

不過，隨著歐盟、美國和中國表態在 2050 年、2060 年消滅碳排放問題，

should give confidence to the rest of the countries that they can also amp-up their targets.

相信也會鼓舞其他國家為減少碳排的目標作更多努力。

So all of that put together means that 2021 could really mark a turning point in international climate negotiations.

在種種的有利因素下，我們相信 2021 年可能會成為國家氣候協議的轉折點。

In 2021, the eagerly awaited next installment in the James Bond franchise will be released, as shown in this slick trailer.

如預告片所示，2021 年，萬眾期待的《007》電影續集即將上映。

But its release could be eclipsed at the box office by a movie most people in the west may never even have heard of.

不過《007》的續集票房很可能會遭受另一部電影的影響。

The slapstick comedy, Detective Chinatown 3 will help china's box office to take more money than America's, to become the biggest in the world.

中國製作的低俗喜劇《唐人街探案 3》的票房成績可能會超越《007》續集。

For a century, Hollywood has ruled the movie world. Now it's china's turn.

過去一百年來，好萊塢持續主導電影世界。不過，現在電影業霸主的位置恐怕要讓給中國了。

Hollywood was the first kind of global, truly global film industry which exported worldwide, and it has held that dominance for a long time.

好萊塢的電影產業是第一個成功出口全世界的電影產業，並且長期掌握電影業的主導地位。

Now with China becoming the biggest box office, and it feels like a milestone simply because it sort of shakes that Hollywood dominance.

隨著中國成為最大電影票倉，也動搖了好萊塢對影業的主導優勢。

China's cinema industry has been growing for a number of years.

中國的電影業多年來持續成長。

But in 2021, projections show America's box office revenues stagnating as China's continued to rise.

2021 年，估計美國的票房收入會陷入停滯，而中國繼續攀升。

China's building more screens, particularly in third tier and fourth tier cities.

中國正在各地陸續興建更多的電影院，尤其是第三和第四線城市。

Uh, so it was something that was gonna happen. It was just a question of what year it was going to happen. The trend is there.

這必然會發生，只是遲早問題。這是大勢所趨。

In America, film fans are shunning the cinema in favor of video on demand, but in China, both online streaming and cinema attendance are on the rise.

在美國，電影觀眾紛紛轉投隨選視訊（VOD）平台，不再上電影院看電影，但在中國卻有著截然不同的情況，無論是線上串流還是電影院的入席率都有攀升的現象。

The key element of it is the, is the young audience who goes to the cinema regularly, you know, going out with friends to go to the cinema is still something of an event and experience.

這個現象的關鍵在於，年輕觀眾仍然會上電影院，你知道的，年輕人還是喜歡和朋友一起到電影院看電影。

China's rise to the top of the box office has been helped by the pandemic.

中國票房的攀升，某個程度上也歸功於疫情。

Hollywood delayed productions and movie theaters have been closed. Yet in China, cinemas are now back up to almost 75% capacity and production of new films is steaming ahead.

受到疫情影響，好萊塢中止電影製作、關閉電影院。反觀中國，目前重新開業的電影院比例已經達到 75%，新電影也如火如荼製作中。

They are not too reliant on foreign productions in a way that they were perhaps previously.

過去中國的電影院或許非常依賴外國電影支撐票房，但情況今非昔比。

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【The Economist 經濟學人】2021年重要的五大事件 The World in 2021: five stories to watch out for

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