- China is asserting claims to all the waters and air space

他們不是主要利用軍艦或執法船隻宣示主張

of the South China Sea.

而是利用偽裝成漁船作業的武裝民兵

And they're doing it not primarily with military

這群海洋民兵才是

or law enforcement vessels,

中國在南海海域展現武力的尖兵

they're doing it with an armed militia

南海是全球爭議最大的區域

that camouflages itself by operating on fishing boats.

在過去的7個月裡，我們看到

The maritime militia is really the tip

這群民兵在中業島發起了

of the spear for China's power projection

罕見的大規模部署行動

in the South China Sea.

這座島上大約住著約100位菲律賓平民以及

The South China Sea is the most contested piece

一支小型部隊

of geography on the planet.

中國每天都有數十艘這樣的民兵船隻包圍著該島

The largest recent deployment we've seen of this militia

在12月20日拍到的衛星圖上

has taken place over the last seven months

可見到95艘中國船隻

around Thitu Island which is occupied

自我們監測到該情況最嚴重的一天

by about 100 Filipino civilians

其中每一艘都是大型船隻

and a small military contingent.

都沒有發出用來避免傳播碰撞的通訊信號

China has had dozens of these militia boats

船上全都沒有漁網，也沒有任何海中作業裝備

surrounding the island every day.

沒有任何一艘船在捕魚

On a shot from December 20th,

每一艘船只是待在原地長時間監視

what you see is 95 Chinese boats.

並恫嚇著島上的菲律賓居民。

The heaviest day that we have monitored around this feature.

顯然,中國在南海的目的

Every one of them are large.

是要在該國所稱「九段線」範圍內

None of them broadcasting the signals that they should be

建立對所有水域和空域的有效控制

to avoid collisions.

他們並不想因此引發與美國或其他任何國家的軍事衝突

None of them with nets or other gear in the water.

他們想要的是利用平民

None of them fishing.

即這些準軍事武力來有效控制該區域

They just sit there for long periods of time monitoring

讓鄰國無法行動

and intimidating the Filipinos.

因此不戰而勝

It seems clear that China's goal in the South China Sea

美國不能使用純軍事回應

is to establish effective dominance of all the waters

美國海軍可以抵抗外侮及支援合作國

and air space within what they call the 9-Dash Line.

但美國海軍無法捍衛菲律賓人的漁權

They don't want to do that by fighting a military conflict

也無法保障鄰國的執法權

with the United States or anybody else.

美國能做的唯有透過外交

What they want to do is use civilian actors,

甚或經濟管道設法說服中國修正其主張

these paramilitary forces to effectively control the space.

尤其要修正其行為

Make it impossible for their neighbors to operate,

盡早撤回這些軍事武力

and therefore win without ever having to fight.

以免引發危機

The U.S. needs to turn away

from strictly military responses.

The U.S. Navy has a role in deterring outward aggression

and backing up our partners.

But the U.S. Navy cannot secure

fishing rights for Filipinos.

They can't secure law enforcement rights

for their neighbors.

The only thing that can do that is a diplomatic

and maybe economic effort in trying to convince China

to modify its claims and especially its behavior

to take these paramilitary forces off the board

before there's a crisis.