China now, Beyond The Valley listeners, you or someone you know, may have struggled to

中國現在，Beyond The Valley的聽眾，你或你認識的人，可能已經掙扎到了

get their hands on, say, a consumer electronics product recently, maybe a games console.

比如說，最近得到了一個消費電子產品，也許是一個遊戲機。

Or maybe you've struggled to get your hands on a new car.

或者，也許你已經掙扎著要去買一輛新車了。

Well, where has this all come from?

那麼，這一切是怎麼來的呢？

Well, this is a result of currently, what is a global semiconductor or chip shortage

那麼，這是目前，什麼是全球半導體或芯片短缺的一個結果

around the world.

世界各地。

And that's the topic of Beyond the Valley today.

而這就是今天《超越山谷》的主題。

Now, these chips are or micro processors are very tiny components that go into many of

現在，這些芯片或者說微處理器是非常微小的部件，它們進入了許多

the items we use on a daily basis, such as your smartphones, but even things like fridges,

我們日常使用的物品，如你的智能手機，但甚至像冰箱這樣的東西。

or washing machines as well.

或洗衣機也是如此。

So they're incredibly critical.

是以，他們是令人難以置信的關鍵。

And that's really why this global semiconductor shortage is such an issue and a crisis right

這就是為什麼全球半導體短缺是這樣一個問題和危機的真正原因。

now that has impacted industries across the board.

現在，這已經影響到整個行業。

So far, the automakers have really borne the brunt of it at this point, but you are seeing

到目前為止，汽車製造商在這一點上確實首當其衝，但你看到了

expand to so many different industries as well.

也擴大到這麼多不同的行業。

So how has this happened?

那麼，這一切是如何發生的呢？

And what's next?

接下來是什麼？

Well, I'm glad to be joined by Sam Shead, who is our technology correspondent, out in

好吧，我很高興請到了薩姆-希德，他是我們的技術記者，在這裡。

London, Sam, good to have you on beyond the valley for the first time.

倫敦，山姆，很高興你第一次來到山谷之外。

Thanks for having me.

謝謝你邀請我。

I'm pleased to be here.

我很高興來到這裡。

Well, look, this is a topic you've been looking at for several months now digging deep into it.

好吧，聽著，這是一個你已經關注了幾個月的話題，現在正在深入挖掘它。

And what's happening behind the scenes here, so just give us an overview of you know, how

這背後發生了什麼，所以請給我們一個概述，你知道，如何

we've got here?

我們已經在這裡了？

Well, the simple answer is demand has been outstripping supply.

嗯，簡單的答案是需求已經超過了供應。

There's basically not enough chips to go around.

基本上沒有足夠的芯片可以使用。

It's a little bit more complicated than that, though.

不過，情況比這更復雜一點。

These chips are made at huge factories or foundries as they're otherwise known, sometimes

這些芯片是在巨大的工廠或代工廠製造的，因為它們被稱為 "代工廠"。

fabs too.

這也是一個很好的例子。

And these, these big factories can only make so many chips basically, they have to decide

而這些，這些大工廠基本上只能生產這麼多芯片，他們必須決定

which chips they want to make months in advance.

他們想提前幾個月製作哪些芯片。

And this is where the problems come in.

而這正是問題的所在。

So last spring, car companies started to reduce their production targets and chip purchases

是以，去年春天，汽車公司開始降低其生產目標和芯片採購量

as the virus spread around the world.

隨著病毒在世界範圍內的傳播。

At the same time, chipmakers saw a pickup in demand for semiconductors used to support

同時，芯片製造商看到，用於支持的半導體的需求有所回升。

things like remote working, and gaming, then the demand for automotive chips rallied back

諸如遠程工作和遊戲，然後對汽車芯片的需求回升。

a lot quicker than most people anticipated.

比大多數人預期的要快得多。

But the foundries were already busy making other more sophisticated chips for companies

但代工廠已經在忙著為公司製造其他更復雜的芯片

like Apple.

像蘋果公司。

And to make matters worse, Chip factories themselves have also been hit by Coronavirus lockdowns.

而更糟糕的是，芯片工廠本身也受到冠狀病毒封鎖的衝擊。

That's a great overview and some of the points we're going to dig deeper into with our guest

這是一個很好的概述，也是我們將與嘉賓深入探討的一些要點

who we will introduce momentarily.

我們稍後將介紹他。

But Sam, I just want to ask you as well, a lot of major executives of companies around

但是，薩姆，我也想問你，周圍很多公司的主要管理人員

the world have been commenting on this issue recently.

最近，世界各國都在評論這個問題。

What have they had to say about what they're facing right now?

對於他們現在所面臨的情況，他們有什麼要說的？

And sort of how they see this playing out even when it might end?

以及他們如何看待這種情況的發生，甚至何時可能結束？

So opinions vary, but most people are kind of saying it's going to go on to next year

所以意見不一，但大多數人都說它將繼續到明年。

and possibly 2023.

並可能在2023年。

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, he said last week that he sees things getting better next year

特斯拉的首席執行官埃隆-馬斯克，他上週說，他認為明年的情況會變得更好

as more chip plants come online, but then yeah, as I said, there are some analysts who

隨著更多的芯片廠上線，但正如我所說，有一些分析家認為

think 2023 is more realistic.

我認為2023年更為現實。

That's a, that's a great setup Sam and you know, there's a lot of uncertainty as well.

那是一個，那是一個偉大的設置，山姆，你知道，也有很多不確定性。

Of course those are those are what these executives are saying there's so many variable factors

當然這些都是這些高管們所說的，有這麼多可變因素。

in all of this around the world, including you know how the Coronavirus situation continues

在世界各地的這一切中，包括你知道冠狀病毒的情況如何繼續下去

to play out.

來發揮。

And that's certainly going to feed into this.

而這肯定會影響到這一點。

Well, Sam, that was a great setup and I want to dig deeper into some of those topics with

好吧，山姆，這是一個很好的設置，我想和大家一起深入探討其中的一些話題。

our guests for this episode Peter Hanbury, a partner at Bain and company at the company's

我們本期節目的嘉賓是貝恩公司的合夥人彼得-漢伯裡，他在該公司的

technology, media and telecommunications practice focusing very heavily on semiconductors.

技術、媒體和電信業務，主要集中在半導體領域。

Peter, thanks so much for joining us on this episode.

彼得，非常感謝你加入我們這期節目。

Thanks for having me.

謝謝你邀請我。

So Peter, let's just kick off the conversation with the question, you know, why are we facing

是以，彼得，讓我們以這個問題開始對話，你知道，為什麼我們面臨著

this chip shortage right now?

現在這種芯片短缺的情況？

Yeah, that's a great question.

是的，這是個好問題。

And a lot of industries are asking this exact question.

而很多行業都在問這個確切的問題。

We like to think about it really in two phases with slightly different positives.

我們喜歡把它真正分為兩個階段來考慮，其積極意義略有不同。

At first phase was really highlighted by the automotive chip shortage.

在第一個階段，汽車芯片的短缺確實突出。

And what happened there is when COVID hit, they pulled back of their orders and the capacity

發生在那裡的情況是，當COVID襲擊時，他們撤回了他們的訂單和能力。

that they had reserved, went to other industries.

他們所保留的資金都流向了其他行業。

Combine that with a lack of traceability and visibility into their supply chains, lack

再加上缺乏對其供應鏈的可追溯性和可見性，缺乏

of inventory and, and they were hit pretty quickly and hard by the semiconductor shortage.

他們很快就受到了半導體短缺的嚴重打擊。

The second phase is a bit of a different story.

第二階段的情況有點不同。

And this is where you're seeing books like PC makers, apple, Samsung Qualcomm being impacted,

而這就是你看到像PC製造商、蘋果、三星高通等書籍受到衝擊的地方。

and the story there is a bit more challenging.

而那裡的故事則更有挑戰性。

What's driving that is the demand for electronics as folks have shifted to work from home have

推動這一現象的是人們對電子產品的需求，因為人們已經轉向在家工作。

increased significantly.

顯著增加。

And these industries are now being impacted by just structurally there's more demand than

而這些行業現在正受到影響，只是在結構上有更多的需求比

there is supply available.

有可用的供應。

And so instead of the auto industry losing a small portion of the semiconductor market

是以，與其說汽車業失去了一小部分半導體市場

that they used to have access to, this is really the overall semiconductor market has

這確實是整個半導體市場的現狀。

demand significantly above supply.

需求明顯高於供應。

And that's a much more challenging structural problem, just given how long it takes to add

而這是一個更具挑戰性的結構性問題，僅僅考慮到要花多長時間來增加

capacity in the industry.

行業中的能力。

So when it comes to the length of the chip shortage, Peter, you've got people like Elon

是以，當涉及到芯片短缺的長度時，彼得，你有像埃隆這樣的人

Musk saying this is a short term phenomenon.

馬斯克說這是一個短期的現象。

And that things will be back to normal next year, because more and more plants are going

而且，明年的情況將恢復正常，因為越來越多的植物會

to come online.

上線。

But the factories that have been announced by the big chip makers like tsmc, and Intel,

但像TSMC和英特爾這樣的大芯片製造商已經宣佈的工廠。

they're going to take years to build.

他們將需要數年的時間來建設。

So those two things seem to be at odds with one another.

所以這兩件事似乎是相互矛盾的。

What's the true picture there?

那裡的真實情況是什麼？

That's it's a good point.

這是一個很好的觀點。

And I think there are two ways in which this crisis is all the way number one is, you know,

而我認為，這場危機有兩種方式，第一種是，你知道。

we build more factories.

我們建造更多的工廠。

Typically to build a new factory, it takes about three to four years.

通常情況下，建立一個新的工廠，大約需要三到四年的時間。

And so there is some capacity that's coming online, for example, Bosch and Dresden and

是以，有一些產能正在上線，例如，博世和德累斯頓和

Infineon and Villach announced fabs in the 2018 timeframe, and those are just starting

英飛凌和維拉赫宣佈在2018年的時間框架內建立工廠，而這些只是剛剛開始

to come online, and they're gonna help this situation a bit.

他們會對這種情況有一些幫助。

But like you noted, a number of the announcements made recently, you know, are things that are

但正如你所指出的，最近發佈的一些公告，你知道，是一些

not going to show up online until 2024.

直到2024年才會出現在網上。

So in the short term, you know, the destiny of this crisis from a supply perspective is

是以，在短期內，你知道，從供應角度來看，這場危機的命運是

really driven by decisions that were made back in 2018.

真的是由早在2018年做出的決定推動的。

So there will be some relief from a supply perspective, probably not enough to solve

是以，從供應的角度來看，會有一些緩解，可能不足以解決

the crisis before q2 of 2022.

2022年第二季度前的危機。

The other way the crisis gets solved a bit faster is from a demand perspective.

危機得到更快解決的另一種方式是從需求角度出發。

You know, if we start seeing demand for PCs, smartphones, servers start declining, for

你知道，如果我們開始看到對PC、智能手機、服務器的需求開始下降，對於

example, as folks go back to work, that's the other way that you could solve this crisis

例如，當人們返回工作崗位時，這是解決這一危機的另一種方式。

maybe a bit faster.

也許會快一點。

There aren't a lot of indications that that's happening right now.

現在還沒有很多跡象表明這種情況正在發生。

But that's really the best lever for the crisis to be solved faster than what we currently think.

但這確實是解決危機的最佳槓桿，比我們目前認為的要快。

And as you touched upon there, there are many different types of chips in the world.

正如你在那裡提到的，世界上有許多不同類型的芯片。

There's the high end expensive ones that go into your phone, and then there's the much

有高端的昂貴的，可以放入你的手機，然後有更多的

cheaper, slightly less sophisticated ones that end up in cars.

廉價的、稍微不那麼複雜的，最終出現在汽車上。

Where is the shortage?

短缺在哪裡？

And how much does it come from chip makers prioritizing these high end chips?

又有多少是來自於芯片製造商對這些高端芯片的優先考慮？

That are higher margin products?

那是高利潤的產品？

Yeah, that's a great point.

是的，這是個很好的觀點。

And you know, if you can think about the semiconductor, people think about the semiconductor market

而且你知道，如果你能想到半導體，人們就會想到半導體市場

is one market and it's really not it's 20 to 30 separate markets that are really oriented

是一個市場，而實際上不是，是20到30個獨立的市場，真正面向的是

by technology.

通過技術。

So a lot of folks think of the bleeding edge chips that go into your smartphone or your

是以，很多人認為，在你的智能手機或你的電腦中使用的尖端芯片，是一種很好的選擇。

PC.

個人電腦。

Those are really the very most advanced chips that are available.

這些確實是現有的最先進的芯片。

And those chips are designed every two years in magic with a Moore's Law events, and then

而這些芯片每兩年設計一次，以摩爾定律的事件為神奇，然後

capacity is built for them.

為他們建立了能力。

So those bleeding edge chips have some shortage, but the factories are essentially built as

是以，那些流血的邊緣芯片有一些短缺，但工廠基本上都是作為

the process goes on and demand materializes.

這個過程繼續下去，需求實現了。

So that very, very bleeding edge is not where you're seeing as much of the challenge.

是以，非常，非常出血的邊緣不是你所看到的那麼多挑戰的地方。

There are also little way lagging edge shift, you know, things that sit on old six inch

也有一些小的方式滯後的邊緣轉變，你知道，坐在舊的六英寸的東西

wafers, those are in shortage.

晶片，這些都是短缺的。

But you know, the capacity is a little bit faster there, there's more players who can

但你知道，那裡的能力更快一點，有更多的球員可以

do this, you know, a lot of China's push for self sufficiency means that they're building

這樣做，你知道，中國推動自給自足的很多做法意味著他們正在建設

a lot of capacity there.

那裡有大量的容量。

So again, shortage there, but you know, there's some potential relief insight, it's really

是以，再次，那裡的短缺，但你知道，有一些潛在的救濟洞察力，這真是

those chips that sit in between that is the challenge.

那些位於兩者之間的芯片才是挑戰。

And these would be, for example, from 28 nanometers to 130 meter, there's not many players who

而這些將是，例如，從28納米到130米，沒有多少玩家誰

can build these type of chips, because it's a very sophisticated technology, there's a

可以建立這種類型的芯片，因為它是一種非常複雜的技術，有一個

lot of overlap, and the demand for those chips from PC makers need those type of chips for

大量的重疊，而個人電腦製造商對這些芯片的需求需要這些類型的芯片來滿足。

display drivers.

顯示驅動程序。

But automakers need those type of chips to control their brakes and ECU that go into,

但汽車製造商需要這些類型的芯片來控制他們的剎車和進入的ECU。

an automobile.

一輛汽車。

And so there is where you're really seeing a lot of the crunches, you've got kind of

是以，在這裡，你真的看到了很多的緊縮，你已經有了一種

duplicative demand across lots of different industries, and very limited ability to add

許多不同行業的重複性需求，以及增加的能力非常有限。

supply on that space.

對該空間的供應。

So that middle range of eight nanometers at 130 nanometers, where a lot of the shortage

是以，在8納米到130納米的中間範圍內，很多短缺的東西都在這裡。

is most pronounced.

是最明顯的。

And one of the big issues I guess, with with the the semiconductor industry is the concentrated

我猜想，半導體行業的一個大問題是集中在一起的

supply chain, you know, you may have sort of one company or two companies that are able

供應鏈，你知道，你可能有一個公司或兩個公司，能夠

to create equipment or make equipment that goes in to eventually manufacturing those

創造設備或製造設備，最終用於製造這些設備。

chips, you've got the likes of Samsung tsmc, and Intel that can only make these sort of

芯片，你已經有了像三星tsmc和英特爾這樣的公司，它們只能製造這類

leading or bleeding edge semiconductors.

領先的或流血的邊緣半導體。

You know, a good example is is asml.

你知道，一個好的例子是asml。

Over in the Netherlands making that extreme ultraviolet lithography machine, you know,

在荷蘭製造極紫外光刻機，你知道。

they're one of the only companies in the world that is able to do that as well.

他們也是世界上唯一能夠做到這一點的公司之一。

And, you know, we've seen instances reports of the US trying to block shipment of, you

而且，你知道，我們已經看到關於美國試圖阻止運輸的實例報告，你

know, asml equipment out to China, and that could hold back China's development in the

我知道的是，把設備賣給中國，這可能會阻礙中國的發展。

semiconductor industry as well.

半導體行業也是如此。

So as you look at the concentration of the semiconductor industry and the supply chain,

是以，當你看到半導體行業和供應鏈的集中度。

even if some of these short term bottlenecks get resolved, are these structural issues

即使這些短期的瓶頸問題得到解決，這些結構性問題是否

a concern over the long term?

長遠來看是個問題？

And you know, could that eventually sort of spout another crisis where we have further

你知道，這是否最終會引發另一場危機，我們有進一步的

shortages?

短缺？

Yes.

是的。

So the semiconductor industry in general has a number of structural challenges that lead

是以，半導體行業總體上有一些結構性挑戰，導致

to these types of issues.

對這些類型的問題。

You know, one, the lead times to add capacity or produce an individual chip are extremely

你知道，第一，增加產能或生產單個芯片的準備時間非常長。

long, you know, to once you design a component in it's very hard to change.

長，你知道，一旦你設計了一個組件，就很難再改變。

And then three, as you noted, the value chain is very specialized, and concentrated.

然後第三，正如你所指出的，價值鏈是非常專業的，而且是集中的。

And so the most pronounced example that many people focused on is tsmc, at the bleeding

是以，許多人關注的最明顯的例子是TSMC，在流血的情況下

edge of the logic industry, you know, they have about 80% share for the most bleeding

在邏輯行業的邊緣，你知道，他們有大約80%的份額，是最容易出血的。

edge technologies right now.

現在的邊緣技術。

But you're totally right, that if you look at other places in the value chain, you'll

但你完全正確，如果你看一下價值鏈上的其他地方，你會發現

see similar dynamics.

看到類似的動態。

So for example, asml and lithography at the ??? layer deposition.

是以，例如，asml和光刻技術在? ?層沉積。

The resist industry is a material that's used in the manufacturing and highly concentrated

抗蝕劑行業是一種用於製造和高度集中的材料

in Japan.

在日本。

And so you know, you see a lot of this and really the driver is these are very specialized

所以你知道，你看到很多這樣的情況，而真正的驅動力是這些非常專業的

process.

過程。

You know, some of the materials used are multiple nines of guarantee significantly more pure

你知道，有些使用的材料是多個九分之一的保證，明顯更純。

and complicated than any other industry in the world uses.

而且比世界上任何其他行業使用的都要複雜。

And the r&d required to create those as well as the scale required to amortize those upfront

而創造這些所需的研發，以及攤銷這些前期所需的規模

costs are huge.

成本是巨大的。

And so you see a lot of what I would consider natural monopolies in different parts of the

是以，你看到很多我認為是自然壟斷的東西在不同的地方。

semiconductor industry, driven by the economics associated with producing these complicated

在與生產這些複雜產品有關的經濟因素的推動下，半導體行業的發展勢頭強勁。

materials, equipment, manufacturing processes, and the specialization of skill, there's just

材料、設備、製造工藝，以及技能的專業化，只是有

not that many people who can do it.

能做到這一點的人不多。

And part of the the conversation around supply chain has moved on to countries like the US,

圍繞供應鏈的部分對話已經轉移到美國等國家。

for example, talking about reshoring and in particular, reshoring manufacturing as well

例如，談論再生產，特別是製造業的再生產。

trying to bring back some of that manufacturing onto us soil.

試圖將一些製造業帶回我們的土地上。

And at the same time, you've got China talking about trying to become more self reliant in

同時，你已經讓中國談及試圖變得更加自力更生，在

semiconductor industry as well, you know, how much of a challenge those two things you

你知道，這兩件事對你來說是多麼大的挑戰。

know, for these countries, and how practical is it?

知道，對於這些國家來說，它的實用性如何？

Yeah, no, it's it's a it's a great question.

是的，不，這是一個......這是一個好問題。

And a lot of the emphasis in news recently has been about you know, different countries

而最近新聞中的很多重點是關於你知道的，不同的國家

and make different types of investments that industry at a high level You know, there's