Name: 全球芯片短缺可能會影響你的日常生活 | CNBC Beyond The Valley (The global chip shortage will probably hit your everyday life | CNBC Beyond The Valley)
Uploaded: 2021-10-08T17:41:28.000Z
Duration: 22 min 42 s

Hello, and welcome to another episode of CNBC's Beyond the Valley, I'm Arjun Kharpal in Guangzhou,

大家好，歡迎收聽CNBC的另一集《超越山谷》，我是廣州的Arjun Kharpal。

China now, Beyond The Valley listeners, you or someone you know, may have struggled to

中國現在，Beyond The Valley的聽眾，你或你認識的人，可能已經掙扎到了

情態副詞

get their hands on, say, a consumer electronics product recently, maybe a games console.

比如說，最近得到了一個消費電子產品，也許是一個遊戲機。

Or maybe you've struggled to get your hands on a new car.

或者，也許你已經掙扎著要去買一輛新車了。

Well, this is a result of currently, what is a global semiconductor or chip shortage

那麼，這是目前，什麼是全球半導體或芯片短缺的一個結果

And that's the topic of Beyond the Valley today.

而這就是今天《超越山谷》的主題。

Now, these chips are or micro processors are very tiny components that go into many of

現在，這些芯片或者說微處理器是非常微小的部件，它們進入了許多

the items we use on a daily basis, such as your smartphones, but even things like fridges,

我們日常使用的物品，如你的智能手機，但甚至像冰箱這樣的東西。

是以，他們是令人難以置信的關鍵。

And that's really why this global semiconductor shortage is such an issue and a crisis right

這就是為什麼全球半導體短缺是這樣一個問題和危機的真正原因。

now that has impacted industries across the board.

現在，這已經影響到整個行業。

So far, the automakers have really borne the brunt of it at this point, but you are seeing

到目前為止，汽車製造商在這一點上確實首當其衝，但你看到了

expand to so many different industries as well.

那麼，這一切是如何發生的呢？

Well, I'm glad to be joined by Sam Shead, who is our technology correspondent, out in

好吧，我很高興請到了薩姆-希德，他是我們的技術記者，在這裡。

London, Sam, good to have you on beyond the valley for the first time.

倫敦，山姆，很高興你第一次來到山谷之外。

Well, look, this is a topic you've been looking at for several months now digging deep into it.

好吧，聽著，這是一個你已經關注了幾個月的話題，現在正在深入挖掘它。

And what's happening behind the scenes here, so just give us an overview of you know, how

這背後發生了什麼，所以請給我們一個概述，你知道，如何

Well, the simple answer is demand has been outstripping supply.

嗯，簡單的答案是需求已經超過了供應。

There's basically not enough chips to go around.

基本上沒有足夠的芯片可以使用。

It's a little bit more complicated than that, though.

These chips are made at huge factories or foundries as they're otherwise known, sometimes

這些芯片是在巨大的工廠或代工廠製造的，因為它們被稱為 "代工廠"。

And these, these big factories can only make so many chips basically, they have to decide

而這些，這些大工廠基本上只能生產這麼多芯片，他們必須決定

which chips they want to make months in advance.

他們想提前幾個月製作哪些芯片。

So last spring, car companies started to reduce their production targets and chip purchases

是以，去年春天，汽車公司開始降低其生產目標和芯片採購量

隨著病毒在世界範圍內的傳播。

At the same time, chipmakers saw a pickup in demand for semiconductors used to support

同時，芯片製造商看到，用於支持的半導體的需求有所回升。

things like remote working, and gaming, then the demand for automotive chips rallied back

諸如遠程工作和遊戲，然後對汽車芯片的需求回升。

a lot quicker than most people anticipated.

But the foundries were already busy making other more sophisticated chips for companies

但代工廠已經在忙著為公司製造其他更復雜的芯片

And to make matters worse, Chip factories themselves have also been hit by Coronavirus lockdowns.

而更糟糕的是，芯片工廠本身也受到冠狀病毒封鎖的衝擊。

That's a great overview and some of the points we're going to dig deeper into with our guest

這是一個很好的概述，也是我們將與嘉賓深入探討的一些要點

But Sam, I just want to ask you as well, a lot of major executives of companies around

但是，薩姆，我也想問你，周圍很多公司的主要管理人員

the world have been commenting on this issue recently.

最近，世界各國都在評論這個問題。

What have they had to say about what they're facing right now?

對於他們現在所面臨的情況，他們有什麼要說的？

And sort of how they see this playing out even when it might end?

以及他們如何看待這種情況的發生，甚至何時可能結束？

So opinions vary, but most people are kind of saying it's going to go on to next year

所以意見不一，但大多數人都說它將繼續到明年。

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, he said last week that he sees things getting better next year

特斯拉的首席執行官埃隆-馬斯克，他上週說，他認為明年的情況會變得更好

as more chip plants come online, but then yeah, as I said, there are some analysts who

隨著更多的芯片廠上線，但正如我所說，有一些分析家認為

That's a, that's a great setup Sam and you know, there's a lot of uncertainty as well.

那是一個，那是一個偉大的設置，山姆，你知道，也有很多不確定性。

Of course those are those are what these executives are saying there's so many variable factors

當然這些都是這些高管們所說的，有這麼多可變因素。

in all of this around the world, including you know how the Coronavirus situation continues

在世界各地的這一切中，包括你知道冠狀病毒的情況如何繼續下去

And that's certainly going to feed into this.

Well, Sam, that was a great setup and I want to dig deeper into some of those topics with

好吧，山姆，這是一個很好的設置，我想和大家一起深入探討其中的一些話題。

our guests for this episode Peter Hanbury, a partner at Bain and company at the company's

我們本期節目的嘉賓是貝恩公司的合夥人彼得-漢伯裡，他在該公司的

technology, media and telecommunications practice focusing very heavily on semiconductors.

技術、媒體和電信業務，主要集中在半導體領域。

Peter, thanks so much for joining us on this episode.

彼得，非常感謝你加入我們這期節目。

So Peter, let's just kick off the conversation with the question, you know, why are we facing

是以，彼得，讓我們以這個問題開始對話，你知道，為什麼我們面臨著

And a lot of industries are asking this exact question.

而很多行業都在問這個確切的問題。

We like to think about it really in two phases with slightly different positives.

我們喜歡把它真正分為兩個階段來考慮，其積極意義略有不同。

At first phase was really highlighted by the automotive chip shortage.

在第一個階段，汽車芯片的短缺確實突出。

And what happened there is when COVID hit, they pulled back of their orders and the capacity

發生在那裡的情況是，當COVID襲擊時，他們撤回了他們的訂單和能力。

that they had reserved, went to other industries.

他們所保留的資金都流向了其他行業。

Combine that with a lack of traceability and visibility into their supply chains, lack

再加上缺乏對其供應鏈的可追溯性和可見性，缺乏

of inventory and, and they were hit pretty quickly and hard by the semiconductor shortage.

他們很快就受到了半導體短缺的嚴重打擊。

The second phase is a bit of a different story.

And this is where you're seeing books like PC makers, apple, Samsung Qualcomm being impacted,

而這就是你看到像PC製造商、蘋果、三星高通等書籍受到衝擊的地方。

and the story there is a bit more challenging.

What's driving that is the demand for electronics as folks have shifted to work from home have

推動這一現象的是人們對電子產品的需求，因為人們已經轉向在家工作。

And these industries are now being impacted by just structurally there's more demand than

而這些行業現在正受到影響，只是在結構上有更多的需求比

And so instead of the auto industry losing a small portion of the semiconductor market

是以，與其說汽車業失去了一小部分半導體市場

that they used to have access to, this is really the overall semiconductor market has

這確實是整個半導體市場的現狀。

And that's a much more challenging structural problem, just given how long it takes to add

而這是一個更具挑戰性的結構性問題，僅僅考慮到要花多長時間來增加

So when it comes to the length of the chip shortage, Peter, you've got people like Elon

是以，當涉及到芯片短缺的長度時，彼得，你有像埃隆這樣的人

Musk saying this is a short term phenomenon.

馬斯克說這是一個短期的現象。

And that things will be back to normal next year, because more and more plants are going

而且，明年的情況將恢復正常，因為越來越多的植物會

But the factories that have been announced by the big chip makers like tsmc, and Intel,

但像TSMC和英特爾這樣的大芯片製造商已經宣佈的工廠。

他們將需要數年的時間來建設。

So those two things seem to be at odds with one another.

所以這兩件事似乎是相互矛盾的。

And I think there are two ways in which this crisis is all the way number one is, you know,

而我認為，這場危機有兩種方式，第一種是，你知道。

Typically to build a new factory, it takes about three to four years.

通常情況下，建立一個新的工廠，大約需要三到四年的時間。

And so there is some capacity that's coming online, for example, Bosch and Dresden and

是以，有一些產能正在上線，例如，博世和德累斯頓和

Infineon and Villach announced fabs in the 2018 timeframe, and those are just starting

英飛凌和維拉赫宣佈在2018年的時間框架內建立工廠，而這些只是剛剛開始

to come online, and they're gonna help this situation a bit.

他們會對這種情況有一些幫助。

But like you noted, a number of the announcements made recently, you know, are things that are

但正如你所指出的，最近發佈的一些公告，你知道，是一些

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