Name: 什麼是通貨膨脹，為什麼會發生？| CNBC的解釋 (What is inflation, and why does it happen? | CNBC Explains)
Uploaded: 2021-09-16T18:40:51.000Z
Duration: 12 min 36 s

程度副詞

Ever wondered how your grandparents bought a house with what would barely be enough to

有沒有想過，你的祖父母是如何用勉強夠用的錢買下一棟房子的？

情態副詞

Yes, the prices for things are constantly going up, and the main reason is inflation.

是的，東西的價格在不斷上漲，主要原因是通貨膨脹。

If you had bought a pint of milk in the UK, in 1960, it would have cost you three pence.

如果你在英國買一品脫牛奶，在1960年，它將花費你三便士。

Can we even buy anything with three pence today?

今天我們甚至可以用三便士買到任何東西嗎？

So why does this economic phenomenon happen? And is it a good or a bad thing?

那麼，為什麼會發生這種經濟現象？它是好事還是壞事呢？

Inflation is the rate of increase in the price of goods and services over a period of time.

通貨膨脹是指在一段時期內商品和服務價格的上升率。

This is Joumanna Bercetche, a CNBC anchor, and our resident monetary policy and economics whiz.

我是CNBC的主播Joumanna Bercetche，也是我們的常駐貨幣政策和經濟學奇才。

我們為什麼不回到基本的問題上。

Traditional economics would dictate that there are two main causes for inflation.

傳統經濟學認為，通貨膨脹有兩個主要原因。

There is demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.

有需求拉動型通貨膨脹和成本推動型通貨膨脹。

Cost-push inflation happens when business expenses increase, and these extra costs are

成本推動型通貨膨脹發生在企業開支增加的時候，而這些額外的成本是

So with cost push inflation, what happens is that the price of your inputs or your raw

是以，隨著成本推動型通貨膨脹，所發生的情況是，你的投入或你的原材料的價格將被提高。

materials goes up over time, and that could be because of anticipated events or unanticipated

隨著時間的推移，材料會增加，這可能是由於預期的事件或未預期的

A good example of that would be say what has happened to many of the world's economies

一個很好的例子是說世界上許多經濟體所發生的情況

On the back of that, we've seen a lot of supply chain bottlenecks, we've seen a rise in shipping

在此背景下，我們已經看到了很多供應鏈瓶頸，我們已經看到了航運的上升。

costs, we've seen in certain areas a labor shortage, and because of those, the most of

成本，我們已經看到在某些地區出現了勞動力短缺，由於這些原因，大多數的

those inputs will go into the price of manufacturing, inevitably that has led to higher costs.

這些投入將進入製造業的價格，不可避免地導致了更高的成本。

Then there is demand-pull inflation, which is when the demand for goods and services

然後是需求拉動型通貨膨脹，即對商品和服務的需求

This tends to happen when the economy is strong.

這往往發生在經濟強勁的時候。

Demand-pull is probably a better reflection of what happens when the economy is very close

需求拉動可能更好地反映了經濟非常接近時的情況

In the case of a very well-functioning economy, people may feel that they have more disposable

在經濟運行非常好的情況下，人們可能會覺得他們有更多的可支配收入。

income to spend, and therefore demand for goods and services may go up.

收入用於消費，是以對商品和服務的需求可能上升。

And if companies are operating at full capacity, they won't be able to increase their production

而如果企業滿負荷運轉，他們將無法增加產量

Some economists also see increasing money supply as another major cause of inflation.

一些經濟學家還認為貨幣供應量的增加是通貨膨脹的另一個主要原因。

Around the 70s, a new type of view came to the forefront.

大約在70年代，一種新的觀點走到了前臺。

And that was posited by famous economist Milton Friedman, and his view, and he actually said

這是由著名經濟學家米爾頓-弗裡德曼提出的，他的觀點，實際上他說

this, is that inflation, primarily, and everywhere is a monetary phenomenon.

這一點，就是通貨膨脹，主要是，而且在任何地方都是一種貨幣現象。

So, is Milton Friedman's theory always right, that increasing money supply causes prices to increase?

那麼，米爾頓-弗裡德曼的理論是否總是正確的，即增加貨幣供應量會導致價格上漲？

You're putting me on the spot, Timo. I mean, try to get a couple of economists agree on anything.

你讓我陷入困境了，蒂莫。我的意思是，試著讓幾個經濟學家在任何事情上達成一致。

Keynesian economics is all about what governments do.

凱恩斯主義經濟學是關於政府所做的一切。

Milton Friedman is saying, well, this is actually the domain of central banks, and if you look

米爾頓-弗裡德曼說，嗯，這實際上是中央銀行的領域，如果你看看

at the response to the great financial crisis, to the pandemic, what central banks have done

在對偉大的金融危機的反應，對大流行病的反應，中央銀行做了什麼？

globally, at least advanced economies, has contributed to an increase in the amount of

在全球範圍內，至少是發達經濟體，已經促成了在全球範圍內增加了大量的資金。

And so many of the people who believe in the Milton Friedman monetary theory of inflation,

還有那麼多相信米爾頓-弗裡德曼的通貨膨脹貨幣理論的人。

suspect that because there has been such an expansion of money supply, eventually

懷疑由於貨幣供應量的擴張，最終會導致

that is going to be extremely inflationary.

If I walked in to this room, let's say with a bag of cash, and I just put it on the floor,

如果我走進這個房間，比方說帶著一袋現金，我就把它放在地板上。

but no one picks it up, and no one did anything with it, its impact on inflation would be nil, right?

但沒有人撿到它，也沒有人用它做任何事情，它對通貨膨脹的影響將是零，對嗎？

What if we told everyone at CNBC that there's a bag of cash sitting on the floor, waiting

如果我們告訴CNBC的每個人，有一袋現金放在地板上，等著他們去拿，會怎麼樣？

to be picked up, you'd probably get a stampede of people taking the bills out,

你可能會有很多人把鈔票拿出來。

going down to Costa buying coffees, buying croissants and spending on goods and services.

去科斯塔買咖啡，買羊角麵包，在商品和服務上消費。

That situation, the pile of cash that I brought into the room actually is inflationary, because

這種情況下，我帶進房間的那堆現金實際上是通貨膨脹的，因為

So the missing link right now is the number, what we call the velocity of transactions, has actually dropped quite a lot.

是以，現在缺失的環節是數量，也就是我們所說的交易速度，實際上已經下降了很多。

In order for this money supply to be inflationary, you need to see the transaction levels or

為了使這種貨幣供應量具有通貨膨脹性，你需要看到交易水準或

Got it! Wow, that was like a lightbulb moment. I feel like I really get it now.

明白了!哇，這就像一個電燈泡的時刻。我覺得我現在真的明白了。

哦，真的嗎？我要走了。(兩人笑)

The most widely used measure of inflation is an economic indicator called the Consumer Price Index.

最廣泛使用的通貨膨脹衡量標準是一個叫做消費者價格指數的經濟指標。

It's calculated by measuring the percentage change in the price of a basket of selected

它的計算方法是衡量一籃子選定產品的價格變化百分比。

goods and services a typical household uses over a period of time.

一個典型家庭在一段時期內使用的商品和服務。

This so-called basket can include the price of goods such as food, cars, furniture, and

這個所謂的籃子可以包括食品、汽車、傢俱等商品的價格。

apparel, as well as the price of services such as rent, medical costs and recreational spending.

服裝，以及服務價格，如租金、醫療費用和娛樂消費。

So let's talk about CPI, the consumer price index.

是以，讓我們來談談CPI，即消費者價格指數。

During my research, I found that this is the way inflation is measured across many countries.

在我的研究中，我發現這就是許多國家衡量通貨膨脹的方式。

Let me just caveat that by saying each country constructs their own CPI basket,

我只想說，每個國家都構建了他們自己的CPI籃子。

so what is in it is a function of that country's policymakers.

是以，其中的內容是該國政策制定者的職能。

Essentially, what you want to have is a basket that just reflects people's spending habits,

從本質上講，你想擁有的是一個正好反映人們消費習慣的籃子。

And so what you put in it is supposed to be a reflection of what a consumer would typically

是以，你在裡面放的東西應該是消費者通常會反映的東西

Economists then take the cost of this basket, divide it by the cost of basket from the year

然後，經濟學家把這個籃子的成本，除以當年的籃子成本。

or quarter they're comparing it to, then multiply it by 100.

或者他們要比較的季度，然後乘以100。

This formula calculates the inflation rate we see in headlines.

這個公式計算出我們在頭條新聞中看到的通貨膨脹率。

This is known as headline inflation, but many argue that something called core inflation

這被稱為總體通貨膨脹，但許多人認為，稱為核心通貨膨脹的東西

是更有價值的衡量標準，可以遵循。

What economists try to do is try to smooth out and remove any of the subcomponents that

經濟學家們試圖做的是試圖抹平和去除任何的子成分，這些子成分是

would be extremely volatile on a month-to-month basis or have no ultimate reflection on the

在每個月的基礎上都會有極大的波動，或者說沒有最終反映出這一點。

Oil, for example, on any given month, you can have oil moving up and down because of

例如，石油，在任何給定的月份，你可以讓石油上下波動，因為

factors that are exogenous to how an economy is operating.

So what economists will do is say, "Well, we'll look at the headline number to get a feel

是以，經濟學家們會說，"好吧，我們會看一下標題數字，以獲得一種感覺

for how at an aggregate level price levels are doing."

在總體水平上，價格水平如何"。

But then if we want to get an idea for the overall trend of prices, then we're gonna

但是，如果我們想了解價格的整體趨勢，那麼我們就要

strip out some of those volatile components and that will give us a better measure of

剝去其中一些不穩定的成分，這將使我們更好地衡量

how these Inflation numbers are panning out.

這些通貨膨脹的數字是如何計算出來的。

Now that we understand what inflation is and why it happens, let's explore whether it's

現在我們瞭解了什麼是通貨膨脹和它發生的原因，讓我們來探討它是否是

字幕列表影片播放

什麼是通貨膨脹，為什麼會發生？| CNBC的解釋 (What is inflation, and why does it happen? | CNBC Explains)

essentially

eventually

phenomenon

extremely