buy a used car today?

今天就買一輛二手車？

Yes, the prices for things are constantly going up, and the main reason is inflation.

是的，東西的價格在不斷上漲，主要原因是通貨膨脹。

Here's a fun fact for you.

這裡有一個有趣的事實給你。

If you had bought a pint of milk in the UK, in 1960, it would have cost you three pence.

如果你在英國買一品脫牛奶，在1960年，它將花費你三便士。

Today that will cost you 50 Pence.

今天，這將花費你50便士。

Can we even buy anything with three pence today?

今天我們甚至可以用三便士買到任何東西嗎？

Probably not.

可能不會。

So why does this economic phenomenon happen? And is it a good or a bad thing?

那麼，為什麼會發生這種經濟現象？它是好事還是壞事呢？

Inflation is the rate of increase in the price of goods and services over a period of time.

通貨膨脹是指在一段時期內商品和服務價格的上升率。

Hello Joumanna.

你好，Joumanna。

Hey Timo.

嘿，蒂莫。

This is Joumanna Bercetche, a CNBC anchor, and our resident monetary policy and economics whiz.

我是CNBC的主播Joumanna Bercetche，也是我們的常駐貨幣政策和經濟學奇才。

Let's talk about inflation.

讓我們來談談通貨膨脹問題。

Why don't we go back to the basics.

我們為什麼不回到基本的問題上。

Let's do it.

讓我們行動起來吧。

Traditional economics would dictate that there are two main causes for inflation.

傳統經濟學認為，通貨膨脹有兩個主要原因。

There is demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.

有需求拉動型通貨膨脹和成本推動型通貨膨脹。

Cost-push inflation happens when business expenses increase, and these extra costs are

成本推動型通貨膨脹發生在企業開支增加的時候，而這些額外的成本是

passed on to their customers.

傳遞給他們的客戶。

So with cost push inflation, what happens is that the price of your inputs or your raw

是以，隨著成本推動型通貨膨脹，所發生的情況是，你的投入或你的原材料的價格將被提高。

materials goes up over time, and that could be because of anticipated events or unanticipated

隨著時間的推移，材料會增加，這可能是由於預期的事件或未預期的

events, like say a natural disaster.

事件，比如說一場自然災害。

A good example of that would be say what has happened to many of the world's economies

一個很好的例子是說世界上許多經濟體所發生的情況

coming out of lockdown.

從禁閉中出來。

On the back of that, we've seen a lot of supply chain bottlenecks, we've seen a rise in shipping

在此背景下，我們已經看到了很多供應鏈瓶頸，我們已經看到了航運的上升。

costs, we've seen in certain areas a labor shortage, and because of those, the most of

成本，我們已經看到在某些地區出現了勞動力短缺，由於這些原因，大多數的

those inputs will go into the price of manufacturing, inevitably that has led to higher costs.

這些投入將進入製造業的價格，不可避免地導致了更高的成本。

Then there is demand-pull inflation, which is when the demand for goods and services

然後是需求拉動型通貨膨脹，即對商品和服務的需求

outpaces supply.

超過了供應。

This tends to happen when the economy is strong.

這往往發生在經濟強勁的時候。

Demand-pull is probably a better reflection of what happens when the economy is very close

需求拉動可能更好地反映了經濟非常接近時的情況

to full capacity.

到滿員。

In the case of a very well-functioning economy, people may feel that they have more disposable

在經濟運行非常好的情況下，人們可能會覺得他們有更多的可支配收入。

income to spend, and therefore demand for goods and services may go up.

收入用於消費，是以對商品和服務的需求可能上升。

And if companies are operating at full capacity, they won't be able to increase their production

而如果企業滿負荷運轉，他們將無法增加產量

to keep up with that demand.

以跟上這種需求。

So that could also be inflationary.

是以，這也可能是通貨膨脹。

Some economists also see increasing money supply as another major cause of inflation.

一些經濟學家還認為貨幣供應量的增加是通貨膨脹的另一個主要原因。

Around the 70s, a new type of view came to the forefront.

大約在70年代，一種新的觀點走到了前臺。

And that was posited by famous economist Milton Friedman, and his view, and he actually said

這是由著名經濟學家米爾頓-弗裡德曼提出的，他的觀點，實際上他說

this, is that inflation, primarily, and everywhere is a monetary phenomenon.

這一點，就是通貨膨脹，主要是，而且在任何地方都是一種貨幣現象。

So, is Milton Friedman's theory always right, that increasing money supply causes prices to increase?

那麼，米爾頓-弗裡德曼的理論是否總是正確的，即增加貨幣供應量會導致價格上漲？

You're putting me on the spot, Timo. I mean, try to get a couple of economists agree on anything.

你讓我陷入困境了，蒂莫。我的意思是，試著讓幾個經濟學家在任何事情上達成一致。

It's really difficult.

這真的很困難。

Keynesian economics is all about what governments do.

凱恩斯主義經濟學是關於政府所做的一切。

Milton Friedman is saying, well, this is actually the domain of central banks, and if you look

米爾頓-弗裡德曼說，嗯，這實際上是中央銀行的領域，如果你看看

at the response to the great financial crisis, to the pandemic, what central banks have done

在對偉大的金融危機的反應，對大流行病的反應，中央銀行做了什麼？

globally, at least advanced economies, has contributed to an increase in the amount of

在全球範圍內，至少是發達經濟體，已經促成了在全球範圍內增加了大量的資金。

money supply that's available.

可用的貨幣供應量。

And so many of the people who believe in the Milton Friedman monetary theory of inflation,

還有那麼多相信米爾頓-弗裡德曼的通貨膨脹貨幣理論的人。

suspect that because there has been such an expansion of money supply, eventually

懷疑由於貨幣供應量的擴張，最終會導致

that is going to be extremely inflationary.

這將是極度的通貨膨脹。

But Timo we're not seeing it.

但是，蒂莫我們沒有看到它。

And so the question is why?

是以，問題是為什麼？

So let me give you an example.

所以讓我給你舉個例子。

If I walked in to this room, let's say with a bag of cash, and I just put it on the floor,

如果我走進這個房間，比方說帶著一袋現金，我就把它放在地板上。

but no one picks it up, and no one did anything with it, its impact on inflation would be nil, right?

但沒有人撿到它，也沒有人用它做任何事情，它對通貨膨脹的影響將是零，對嗎？

Because it's just sitting there.

因為它只是坐在那裡。

What if we told everyone at CNBC that there's a bag of cash sitting on the floor, waiting

如果我們告訴CNBC的每個人，有一袋現金放在地板上，等著他們去拿，會怎麼樣？

to be picked up, you'd probably get a stampede of people taking the bills out,

你可能會有很多人把鈔票拿出來。

going down to Costa buying coffees, buying croissants and spending on goods and services.

去科斯塔買咖啡，買羊角麵包，在商品和服務上消費。

That situation, the pile of cash that I brought into the room actually is inflationary, because

這種情況下，我帶進房間的那堆現金實際上是通貨膨脹的，因為

it's leading to more transactions.

它導致了更多的交易。

So the missing link right now is the number, what we call the velocity of transactions, has actually dropped quite a lot.

是以，現在缺失的環節是數量，也就是我們所說的交易速度，實際上已經下降了很多。

In order for this money supply to be inflationary, you need to see the transaction levels or

為了使這種貨幣供應量具有通貨膨脹性，你需要看到交易水準或

that velocity of money go up again.

貨幣的速度再次上升。

Got it! Wow, that was like a lightbulb moment. I feel like I really get it now.

明白了!哇，這就像一個電燈泡的時刻。我覺得我現在真的明白了。

I don't have a bag of cash though.

雖然我沒有一袋現金。

Oh really? I'm leaving. (Both laugh)

哦，真的嗎？我要走了。(兩人笑)

The most widely used measure of inflation is an economic indicator called the Consumer Price Index.

最廣泛使用的通貨膨脹衡量標準是一個叫做消費者價格指數的經濟指標。

It's calculated by measuring the percentage change in the price of a basket of selected

它的計算方法是衡量一籃子選定產品的價格變化百分比。

goods and services a typical household uses over a period of time.

一個典型家庭在一段時期內使用的商品和服務。

This so-called basket can include the price of goods such as food, cars, furniture, and

這個所謂的籃子可以包括食品、汽車、傢俱等商品的價格。

apparel, as well as the price of services such as rent, medical costs and recreational spending.

服裝，以及服務價格，如租金、醫療費用和娛樂消費。

So let's talk about CPI, the consumer price index.

是以，讓我們來談談CPI，即消費者價格指數。

During my research, I found that this is the way inflation is measured across many countries.

在我的研究中，我發現這就是許多國家衡量通貨膨脹的方式。

Let me just caveat that by saying each country constructs their own CPI basket,

我只想說，每個國家都構建了他們自己的CPI籃子。

so what is in it is a function of that country's policymakers.

是以，其中的內容是該國政策制定者的職能。

Essentially, what you want to have is a basket that just reflects people's spending habits,

從本質上講，你想擁有的是一個正好反映人們消費習慣的籃子。

monthly spending habits.

每月的消費習慣。

And so what you put in it is supposed to be a reflection of what a consumer would typically

是以，你在裡面放的東西應該是消費者通常會反映的東西

spend on a month-to-month basis.

按月花費。

Economists then take the cost of this basket, divide it by the cost of basket from the year

然後，經濟學家把這個籃子的成本，除以當年的籃子成本。

or quarter they're comparing it to, then multiply it by 100.

或者他們要比較的季度，然後乘以100。

This formula calculates the inflation rate we see in headlines.

這個公式計算出我們在頭條新聞中看到的通貨膨脹率。

This is known as headline inflation, but many argue that something called core inflation

這被稱為總體通貨膨脹，但許多人認為，稱為核心通貨膨脹的東西

is the more valuable metric to follow.

是更有價值的衡量標準，可以遵循。

What economists try to do is try to smooth out and remove any of the subcomponents that

經濟學家們試圖做的是試圖抹平和去除任何的子成分，這些子成分是

would be extremely volatile on a month-to-month basis or have no ultimate reflection on the

在每個月的基礎上都會有極大的波動，或者說沒有最終反映出這一點。

strength of the economy.

經濟的力量。

Oil, for example, on any given month, you can have oil moving up and down because of

例如，石油，在任何給定的月份，你可以讓石油上下波動，因為

factors that are exogenous to how an economy is operating.

屬於經濟運行的外生因素。

So what economists will do is say, "Well, we'll look at the headline number to get a feel

是以，經濟學家們會說，"好吧，我們會看一下標題數字，以獲得一種感覺

for how at an aggregate level price levels are doing."

在總體水平上，價格水平如何"。

But then if we want to get an idea for the overall trend of prices, then we're gonna

但是，如果我們想了解價格的整體趨勢，那麼我們就要

strip out some of those volatile components and that will give us a better measure of

剝去其中一些不穩定的成分，這將使我們更好地衡量

how these Inflation numbers are panning out.

這些通貨膨脹的數字是如何計算出來的。

Now that we understand what inflation is and why it happens, let's explore whether it's

現在我們瞭解了什麼是通貨膨脹和它發生的原因，讓我們來探討它是否是

something we should worry about.

我們應該擔心的事情。

Ultimately, is it a good thing or a bad thing?

歸根結底，這是一件好事還是一件壞事？

Well, economists have come around to the view that a little bit of inflation is good.

好吧，經濟學家們已經想通了，認為一點點的通貨膨脹是好事。

It's like Goldilocks, you don't want it to be too hot and too cold.

這就像Goldilocks，你不希望它太熱和太冷。

You want it somewhere in the middle.

你希望它處於中間的某個位置。

Usually inflation is a sign of a well-functioning, productive and growing economy.

通常情況下，通貨膨脹是經濟運行良好、生產力和增長的標誌。

But when you talk about hyperinflation, then we're entering into a completely different stratosphere.

但是當你談到惡性通貨膨脹時，那麼我們就進入了一個完全不同的平流層。

Hyperinflation is when prices spiral out of control, with an inflation rate typically

惡性通貨膨脹是指價格失去控制，通貨膨脹率通常為

increasing by more than 50% per month.

每月增加50%以上。

Though many things can trigger hyperinflation, it's most commonly caused by excessive money

儘管許多事情都可以引發惡性通貨膨脹，但最常見的是由過度的貨幣引起的。

supply and a loss of confidence in the economy or monetary system.

供應和對經濟或貨幣體系失去信心。

Take Brazil for example.

以巴西為例。

From 1980 to 1995, the price level increased by a factor of one trillion, meaning you would

從1980年到1995年，價格水平增加了一萬億倍，這意味著你會

have to pay one trillion Reais for something that cost you just one 15 years ago.

必須為15年前只花了1萬億雷亞爾的東西支付1萬億雷亞爾。

In the case of the Weimar Republic, in Germany, for example, post-World War One, they were

以德國的魏瑪共和國為例，在第一次世界大戰後，他們是

experiencing inflation, average inflation of about 300 percentage points per month.

遭遇通貨膨脹，每月平均通貨膨脹率約為300個百分點。

These are numbers that are actually so high, it is difficult to comprehend.

這些數字實際上是如此之高，令人難以理解。

At one point, the Riggs bank, the German central bank at the time, actually issued a 100 trillion mark note.

有一次，裡格銀行，即當時的德國中央銀行，實際上發行了100萬億馬克的紙幣。

Are you kidding me?

你在跟我開玩笑嗎？

No.

沒有。

I mean, it was extremely, extremely painful for many of the people who witnessed and lived

我的意思是，這對許多見證和生活在其中的人來說是極其、極其痛苦的。

through that time.

通過這段時間。

There are loads of these images from the 20s of little kids using stockpiles of cash as

20年代有很多這樣的圖片，小孩子們用庫存的現金作為

Lego, because cash was worthless.

樂高，因為現金一文不值。

But inflation doesn't need to spill over into hyperinflation territory to cause trouble.

但是，通貨膨脹並不需要蔓延到惡性通貨膨脹領域來造成麻煩。

In the 1970s, many of the world's developed economies witnessed double digit inflation.

在20世紀70年代，世界上許多發達經濟體目睹了兩位數的通貨膨脹。

But it was how the chair of the U.S.'s central bank handled it that made the history books.

但是，美國中央銀行的主席是如何處理這個問題的，這才成為歷史書。

Essentially, what happened is you had a couple of supply shocks.

從本質上講，所發生的是你有幾個供應衝擊。

So we talked about cost push, you know, one of them was an energy supply shock, you had

所以我們談到了成本推動，你知道，其中一個是能源供應衝擊，你有

that around 1973 1974 with the oil embargo, and then the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

1973年至1974年的石油禁運，以及1979年的伊朗革命。

So that led to skyrocketing oil prices.

是以，這導致了油價的暴漲。

At the same time, you had a couple of other things going on, back in the U.S.

與此同時，你在美國還有其他一些事情要做。

President Nixon had pulled the us out of Bretton Woods.

尼克松總統將美國從佈雷頓森林體系中撤出。

He had removed some price controls on certain goods and in the food space.

他已經取消了對某些商品和食品領域的一些價格控制。

So, all of these things contributed to a slow and steady rise in inflation.

是以，所有這些事情都促成了通貨膨脹的緩慢和穩定上升。

Until, we talk about secondary effects, it led to a wage spiral.

直到，我們談及次要的影響，它導致了工資的螺旋式上升。

So workers started demanding an increase in pay.

是以，工人們開始要求增加工資。

And at one point, we had inflation reach about 14%.

而且，我們的通貨膨脹率一度達到14%左右。

And this was around 1980.

而這是在1980年左右。

And the then Fed chair Paul Volcker came in and said, "Okay, well, inflation is the enemy,

而當時的美聯儲主席保羅-沃爾克進來後說，"好吧，通貨膨脹是敵人。

we've got to cure this."

我們必須治好這個病。"

And the only way you can cure this is by hiking interest rates.

而你能治癒這個問題的唯一方法就是提高利率。

So he kept hiking and hiking hiking, the Fed started this interest rate hiking cycle,

所以他不斷地加息，加息加息，美聯儲開始了這個加息週期。

at which interest rates in the US reached 20 percentage points.

在美國的利率達到20個百分點。

Eventually, they managed to start taming inflation and inflation went down to three percentage

最終，他們設法開始抑制通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹率下降到三個百分點。

points by the mid 80s.

到80年代中期，點。

But, Timo, it came in a very heavy cost, because you had more than 4 million Americans unemployed

但是，蒂莫，它帶來了非常沉重的代價，因為你有400多萬美國人失業。

at the time.

當時的情況。

And it was it basically led to an economic recession in the U.S.

而這基本上導致了美國的經濟衰退。

So that was the trade-off that they had to make, in order to keep inflation team or to

是以，這是他們不得不做出的權衡，為了保持通貨膨脹的團隊或

bring it back to tame levels, the economy had to go through a very painful adjustment period.

為了使其恢復到溫和的水準，經濟必須經歷一個非常痛苦的調整期。

And that is a reason why, in this day and age, nobody wants to go back to what happened in the 70s

這也是為什麼在這個時代，沒有人願意回到70年代發生的事情的一個原因

and then the painful tradeoffs that ensued afterwards.

然後是隨後的痛苦的權衡。

What are the changes we've seen countries make to ensure we don't see a repeat of what we saw in the 70s?

我們看到各國做出了哪些改變，以確保我們不會看到70年代的情況重演？

Well, I think one of the most important developments is that you have institutions now,

嗯，我認為最重要的發展之一是，你們現在有了機構。

you have central banks whose primary, or one of the main mandates, is to keep an eye on overall

你有中央銀行，其主要或主要的任務之一，是保持對整體的關注。

price levels in the system.

系統中的價格水平。

So many developed market, or many central banks out there, their number one goal is to ensure

是以，許多發達市場，或許多中央銀行在那裡，他們的首要目標是確保

that inflation doesn't get above a certain level.

通貨膨脹不超過某一水準。

The magic number is around 2% for advanced economies' central banks, they'll say somewhere around there

對於發達經濟體的中央銀行來說，神奇的數字是2%左右，他們會說在那附近。

because it's not too high so that it will start causing secondary effects, but not too low or close to zero

因為它不會太高，以至於會開始引起次生效應，但也不會太低或接近零。

or even negative, that we may be dangerously close to that deflation or disinflationary dynamics also,

甚至是負面的，我們可能危險地接近這種通貨緊縮或通貨緊縮的動態。

which central banks want to avoid.

這也是中央銀行想要避免的。